Alabama vs Kentucky - Offensive Metrics Comparison

[KA4Prez]

Kentucky ranks:

3rd in scoring offense (88.7 PPG)
2nd in offensive efficiency
25th in effective field goal percentage
9th in turnover rate
149th in offensive rebounding
85th in 3-point rate (percentage of attempts taken - 27.6 APG)
57th in 3-point percentage
23rd in 2-point percentage

Alabama ranks:

1st in scoring offense (89.5 PPG)
4th in offensive efficiency
4th in effective field goal percentage
154th in turnover rate
19th in offensive rebounding
19th in 3-point rate (percentage of attempts taken - 31.2 APG))
245th in 3-point percentage
3rd in 2-point percentage

Summary:

These teams are similar overall on offense, but they do it in a much different way.

- Kentucky doesn't turn the ball over (despite more over the past 3 games) and Alabama does (almost 4 more per game than UK).
- Alabama thrives on the offensive glass, which also contributes to their elite 2-point percentage. They get a lot more offense than UK on the interior glass.
- Alabama shoots the three a lot more than Kentucky (31.2 to 27.6 APG), but is a terrible 3-point shooting team. They will keep shooting them though.

Projections:

Torvik has Kentucky winning 93-92
KenPom has Kentucky winning 90-88

What do you think?

 

[trueblujr2]

I see this game being another shootout like the Florida game. could go into the 100's if we're on.

 

[BlueBomb]

I feel much better after our rebounding effort against A&M. We've now proven we can mix it up underneath. We do that again against Bama, AND we shoot 40% from three, we win. Easy peasy, right?

 

[Cats192]

Either team can get white hot from 3, and the rest won't even matter. We need to limit their easy looks from 3. Because we know they're capable of making ridiculous ones.

Rebounding is going to be paramount. If they want to play this inefficient game where they launch 3's and crash the offensive glass, we need to take away the offensive rebounds. Make them pay for the inefficient/high volume shooting.

Hopefully we can be the team that goes nuclear from 3.

 

[Skyguyb27]

I see this game being another shootout like the Florida game. could go into the 100's if we're on.

This explains it all. It’s gonna be a shootout at the Adolph Rupp Coral.

 

[Digger-Cat]

This is the kind of game we thrive in, it will he a track meet.
I know Alabama thrives in that type of game too, but this will be in Rupp.

 

[BassProCat]

130-127 cats

 

[CrimsonCats]

The 3 point shooting is what everyone automatically thinks about with Alabama, but they’re not actually very good at it this year even if that hasn’t slowed down their volume of attempts. I think taking away easy baskets at the rim and limiting their offensive rebounds will be the key in this one.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Defensive rebounding is the key and will be moving forward. Thats so far our sore spot and it will cost us at least one more game going forward.

One caveat is if amari continues his second half play last night. He makes things totally different if he can keep up rebounding at that level.

 

[FirewithFire]

I think that if we hit our threes and Bama doesn't we will run them out of the gym.

 

[yoshukai]

This would be a great game for Jaxson and Brea to BOTH be hot .

 

[aceman509]

This game will come down to two things:

1. How well does Kentucky shoot threes? If we are 35%+ that means we made 10+ threes and are in good shape. Any worse than that and we likely wont score enough to keep up

2. How many shots does Bama get at the rim? We know they love to shoot threes, but if they are getting to the rim against us we are in trouble. We need to make sure we dont overplay the 3 point shot at the expense of open layups. If we limit their easy layups, then they are going to have to beat us by shooting 45%+ from 3. Which they are capable of, but I'll take our chances.

 

[blue cincy]

130-127 cats

Now that would be a fun old ABA style basketball game!!

 

[EliteBlue]

This would be a great game for Jaxson and Brea to BOTH be hot .

And that first game in Feb

 

[The_Answer1313]

They make over 60% of their twos. We tend to struggle with 2pt FG defense.

What’s odd is they take a ton of threes for a team that’s not all that great at hitting them.

Also another team that rebounds well on offense and gets to the line. Very similar to what we’ve seen quite a bit recently

Good team. Despite the loss. Then again everyone is in this conference

 

[rick64]

First to 95 wins?

 

[Cowtown Cat]

Rupp is gonna be absolutely LIVE! Even more so than the Florida game was IMO. Cats 96-89!

EDIT: Brea is DUE! Been OFF 3 consecutive games!

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

My take is that if we score more than they do, we'll most likely win.

Seriously though- they take a lot of threes. Let's hope they don't suddenly get beer muscles and make them at a surprising clip.

 

[Digger-Cat]

They make over 60% of their twos. We tend to struggle with 2pt FG defense.

What’s odd is they take a ton of threes for a team that’s not all that great at hitting them.

Also another team that rebounds well on offense and gets to the line. Very similar to what we’ve seen quite a bit recently

Good team. Despite the loss. Then again everyone is in this conference

You and I have had a couple conversations about UK's defense and rebounding. You said you didn't think we were going to get much better, if at all.
You still believe that?

Honestly, I believe this team has the size and the individual skill to be very good in both categories and after watching last nights game, I think they are on the right track.

 

[ukfan1622]

What do you think?

I think Rupp will be rockin' and 'bama will regret they came knockin'

 

[The_Answer1313]

You and I have had a couple conversations about UK's defense and rebounding. You said you didn't think we were going to get much better, if at all.
You still believe that?

Honestly, I believe this team has the size and the individual skill to be very good in both categories and after watching last nights game, I think they are on the right track.

I definitely still believe that.

The rebounding has been overstated tho. We've been a good rebounding team on the defensive side all season long. That's not our problem on defense contrary to popular belief.

Our problem on defense is we don't turn teams over and we also allow teams to shoot an insanely high % from 2.

Even in the last two games, Miss St shot 65% from 2. Even Texas AM who is a terrible shooting team shot 55%.

The things we do poorly on defense have not gotten better TBH. We gave up 1.21 ppp to Miss St. We won the game because our offense is elite. Against Texas AM we did have a very good defensive game but tbf AM was without their top scorer and they are generally a bad shooting team anyways.

Yeah I just don't see us magically jumping from 75th to......I dunno top 20. I think that's a bit of a stretch given we are more than halfway through the season already. We can get better. Marginally IMO.

 

[megablue]

We beat them 117-95 last year.
We beat them again this year: 107-97.
GO CATS !!

 

[CastleRubric]

I see this game being another shootout like the Florida game. could go into the 100's if we're on.

What was the reason Ole Miss held their offense to such low output - and can we duplicate that?

 

[The_Answer1313]

And honestly............the defense doesn't need to get a whole lot better.

You don't want to be one sided because we've seen teams in general under perform to seed in the tournament when they are those type of teams.

However, the most important figure is the efficiency margin. The difference between your offensive and defensive efficiency. That's essentially how the point spread on Kenpom (and by extension mirrors what Vegas says basically) comes from.

So get a little better on defense. Maybe get a little better on offense as well.

At the end of the day, you want to be in that handful of 6-8 teams that can win a national title. We aren't quite there but marginally getting better on both Off and Def just might get us where we need to be.

We are currently 16th on KP. Our Net efficiency rating is about 3 points lower than Bama (Bama would be favored by about 2 on a neutral court which is why KP predicts us winning by 1 at Rupp). who is sitting at 10th. Just keep winning and getting that number close to the top 10 and who knows.

 

[crawfords corner]

UK 151 Bama 138 mark it down

 

[Digger-Cat]

And honestly............the defense doesn't need to get a whole lot better.

You don't want to be one sided because we've seen teams in general under perform to seed in the tournament when they are those type of teams.

However, the most important figure is the efficiency margin. The difference between your offensive and defensive efficiency. That's essentially how the point spread on Kenpom (and by extension mirrors what Vegas says basically) comes from.

So get a little better on defense. Maybe get a little better on offense as well.

At the end of the day, you want to be in that handful of 6-8 teams that can win a national title. We aren't quite there but marginally getting better on both Off and Def just might get us where we need to be.

We are currently 16th on KP. Our Net efficiency rating is about 3 points lower than Bama (Bama would be favored by about 2 on a neutral court which is why KP predicts us winning by 1 at Rupp). who is sitting at 10th. Just keep winning and getting that number close to the top 10 and who knows.

Well, we moved up 10 spots in defensive efficiency after last night's game and we just outrebounded one of the best rebounding teams in the country.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Well, we moved up 10 spots in defensive efficiency after last night's game and we just outrebounded one of the best rebounding teams in the country.

I think that's more of a byproduct of just how close teams are in rating and less of a massive improvement.

 

[yabbadabbadoo]

I’m really glad we have a defensive juggernaut like Butler to guard Sears because he is a big part of what makes them go. Gotta watch foul trouble though.