Alabama vs Kentucky - Offensive Metrics Comparison

[KA4Prez]

Kentucky ranks:

3rd in scoring offense (88.7 PPG)
2nd in offensive efficiency
25th in effective field goal percentage
9th in turnover rate
149th in offensive rebounding
85th in 3-point rate (percentage of attempts taken - 27.6 APG)
57th in 3-point percentage
23rd in 2-point percentage

Alabama ranks:

1st in scoring offense (89.5 PPG)
4th in offensive efficiency
4th in effective field goal percentage
154th in turnover rate
19th in offensive rebounding
19th in 3-point rate (percentage of attempts taken - 31.2 APG))
245th in 3-point percentage
3rd in 2-point percentage

Summary:

These teams are similar overall on offense, but they do it in a much different way.

- Kentucky doesn't turn the ball over (despite more over the past 3 games) and Alabama does (almost 4 more per game than UK).
- Alabama thrives on the offensive glass, which also contributes to their elite 2-point percentage. They get a lot more offense than UK on the interior glass.
- Alabama shoots the three a lot more than Kentucky (31.2 to 27.6 APG), but is a terrible 3-point shooting team. They will keep shooting them though.

Projections:

Torvik has Kentucky winning 93-92
KenPom has Kentucky winning 90-88

What do you think?

 

[trueblujr2]

I see this game being another shootout like the Florida game. could go into the 100's if we're on.

 

[BlueBomb]

I feel much better after our rebounding effort against A&M. We've now proven we can mix it up underneath. We do that again against Bama, AND we shoot 40% from three, we win. Easy peasy, right?

 

[Cats192]

Either team can get white hot from 3, and the rest won't even matter. We need to limit their easy looks from 3. Because we know they're capable of making ridiculous ones.

Rebounding is going to be paramount. If they want to play this inefficient game where they launch 3's and crash the offensive glass, we need to take away the offensive rebounds. Make them pay for the inefficient/high volume shooting.

Hopefully we can be the team that goes nuclear from 3.

 

[Skyguyb27]

I see this game being another shootout like the Florida game. could go into the 100's if we're on.

This explains it all. It’s gonna be a shootout at the Adolph Rupp Coral.

 

[Digger-Cat]

This is the kind of game we thrive in, it will he a track meet.
I know Alabama thrives in that type of game too, but this will be in Rupp.

 

[BassProCat]

130-127 cats

 

[CrimsonCats]

The 3 point shooting is what everyone automatically thinks about with Alabama, but they’re not actually very good at it this year even if that hasn’t slowed down their volume of attempts. I think taking away easy baskets at the rim and limiting their offensive rebounds will be the key in this one.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Defensive rebounding is the key and will be moving forward. Thats so far our sore spot and it will cost us at least one more game going forward.

One caveat is if amari continues his second half play last night. He makes things totally different if he can keep up rebounding at that level.

 

[FirewithFire]

I think that if we hit our threes and Bama doesn't we will run them out of the gym.

 

[yoshukai]

This would be a great game for Jaxson and Brea to BOTH be hot .

 

[aceman509]

This game will come down to two things:

1. How well does Kentucky shoot threes? If we are 35%+ that means we made 10+ threes and are in good shape. Any worse than that and we likely wont score enough to keep up

2. How many shots does Bama get at the rim? We know they love to shoot threes, but if they are getting to the rim against us we are in trouble. We need to make sure we dont overplay the 3 point shot at the expense of open layups. If we limit their easy layups, then they are going to have to beat us by shooting 45%+ from 3. Which they are capable of, but I'll take our chances.

 

[blue cincy]

130-127 cats

Now that would be a fun old ABA style basketball game!!

 

[EliteBlue]

This would be a great game for Jaxson and Brea to BOTH be hot .

And that first game in Feb

 

[The_Answer1313]

They make over 60% of their twos. We tend to struggle with 2pt FG defense.

What’s odd is they take a ton of threes for a team that’s not all that great at hitting them.

Also another team that rebounds well on offense and gets to the line. Very similar to what we’ve seen quite a bit recently

Good team. Despite the loss. Then again everyone is in this conference

 

[rick64]

First to 95 wins?

 

[Cowtown Cat]

Rupp is gonna be absolutely LIVE! Even more so than the Florida game was IMO. Cats 96-89!

EDIT: Brea is DUE! Been OFF 3 consecutive games!

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

My take is that if we score more than they do, we'll most likely win.

Seriously though- they take a lot of threes. Let's hope they don't suddenly get beer muscles and make them at a surprising clip.