Aike’s Model Update - 3/5/25

[gharding07]

Without looking, I'm guessing they haven't had an elite win against the SEC teams on the road. Now winning at Ole Miss is tough--Vandy too so give them that. Saw those games. South Carolina has played people tough in Columbia but that's a game you should win this year. Who else did they beat away from Starkville?

Their most impressive win to me on the road was Memphis.

Saying that--a lot of my disbelief in them is based on their last 2 half assed showings when they had an opportunity gifted to them and pissed it away buy not showing up for 25/30 mins of an NCAA play in game in '23 and last year in 1st Rd to a bad Michigan St team who honestly had 0 business making the Tournament. I love Hubbard and depending on what Riley Kugel shows up--you have a chance to scare people but they just have that "do they give a s***" component that scares me come filling out a bracket time.

@Ole Miss is there best win away. Also beat Memphis but not sure if that was away or on a neutral court.

 

[_TrueBlue84_]

	Team	O	D	ODM	T	ASM
1​	Duke	129.1	89.7	39.4	66.2	26.1
2​	Auburn	130.7	94.3	36.4	68.3	24.9
3​	Florida	127.1	92.9	34.2	69.6	23.8
4​	Alabama	127.4	98.1	29.3	75.1	22.0
5​	Houston	124.3	89.2	35.1	61.3	21.5
6​	Tennessee	119.2	88.1	31.1	63.8	19.8
7​	Gonzaga	125.1	97.9	27.2	70.4	19.1
8​	Michigan St.	118.1	91.1	27	67.8	18.3
9​	Texas Tech	124.8	97.2	27.6	65.9	18.2
10​	Wisconsin	123.9	97.2	26.7	67.7	18.1
11​	Iowa St.	118.7	92.8	25.9	68.9	17.8
12​	Kentucky	125.2	100.2	25	70.9	17.7

*Stats come from Kenpom
O* - Points per 100 possessions
D* - Opponent points per 100 possessions
ODM - Scoring margin per 100 possessions
T* - Number of possess per 40 minutes
ASM - Scoring margin adjusted for tempo

Very rudimentary metric I will admit. Just wanted to see what I could put together in a few minutes (I am a data analyst by trade so like playing with numbers.) Looks like the same teams are near the top as in your model, although in different order. The last 10 champions had an average ASM of 21.2, so the top 5 on this list would fit that average. We would need to get our D down to 95 points per 100 to hit that average.

Also, if I need to remove this from your thread I do not mind. Just let me know.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

	Team	O	D	ODM	T	ASM
1​	Duke	129.1	89.7	39.4	66.2	26.1
2​	Auburn	130.7	94.3	36.4	68.3	24.9
3​	Florida	127.1	92.9	34.2	69.6	23.8
4​	Alabama	127.4	98.1	29.3	75.1	22.0
5​	Houston	124.3	89.2	35.1	61.3	21.5
6​	Tennessee	119.2	88.1	31.1	63.8	19.8
7​	Gonzaga	125.1	97.9	27.2	70.4	19.1
8​	Michigan St.	118.1	91.1	27	67.8	18.3
9​	Texas Tech	124.8	97.2	27.6	65.9	18.2
10​	Wisconsin	123.9	97.2	26.7	67.7	18.1
11​	Iowa St.	118.7	92.8	25.9	68.9	17.8
12​	Kentucky	125.2	100.2	25	70.9	17.7

*Stats come from Kenpom
O* - Points per 100 possessions
D* - Opponent points per 100 possessions
ODM - Scoring margin per 100 possessions
T* - Number of possess per 40 minutes
ASM - Scoring margin adjusted for tempo

Very rudimentary metric I will admit. Just wanted to see what I could put together in a few minutes (I am a data analyst by trade so like playing with numbers.) Looks like the same teams are near the top as in your model, although in different order. The last 10 champions had an average ASM of 21.2, so the top 5 on this list would fit that average. We would need to get our D down to 95 points per 100 to hit that average.

Also, if I need to remove this from your thread I do not mind. Just let me know.

Can you run that analysis from a specific date only, like say since week of 2/3 to now? Just curious what it would look like?

 

[_TrueBlue84_]

Can you run that analysis from a specific date only, like say since week of 2/3 to now? Just curious what it would look like?

Unfortunately, since the base numbers are from Kenpom and he does not have any way of filtering for certain dates, I can't. I would be intersted to see myself. My original thought was I wanted to weight the stats so that the last 10 games had 3 times the effect on the overall as the rest of the season (75%/25% weighting) but I could not find the stats I wanted that could be filtered.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

Unfortunately, since the base numbers are from Kenpom and he does not have any way of filtering for certain dates, I can't. I would be intersted to see myself. My original thought was I wanted to weight the stats so that the last 10 games had 3 times the effect on the overall as the rest of the season (75%/25% weighting) but I could not find the stats I wanted that could be filtered.

I believe he has the option for subscription members only. Too bad. Torvick has the ability to do that.

 

[_TrueBlue84_]

I believe he has the option for subscription members only. Too bad. Torvick has the ability to do that.

Here is the from Torvick 2/1-3/6

RK	Team	O	D	ODM	T	ASM
1	Auburn	128.8	94.5	34.3	69.5	23.8
2	Duke	126.1	91.7	34.4	66.3	22.8
3	Houston	123.7	88.9	34.8	62.7	21.8
4	Alabama	126.9	99.9	27	74.7	20.2
5	Florida	123.8	96.3	27.5	70.9	19.5
6	Gonzaga	125.7	98.7	27	69.7	18.8
7	Arizona	121.1	94.7	26.4	71.2	18.8
8	Tennessee	117.3	89.8	27.5	66.4	18.3
9	Illinois	124.4	98.9	25.5	71.4	18.2
10	Connecticut	125.3	97.6	27.7	64.8	17.9
11	Purdue	124.7	97.6	27.1	66	17.9
12	Iowa St.	116.2	90.4	25.8	68.3	17.6
13	Kentucky	125.2	101.1	24.1	72	17.4
14	Texas Tech	121.6	97.1	24.5	67.1	16.4
15	St. John's	115.7	93.2	22.5	70.5	15.9
16	Marquette	117.7	95.7	22	68.4	15.0
17	Wisconsin	120.6	98.4	22.2	67.6	15.0
18	BYU	122.1	100.2	21.9	68.5	15.0
19	Texas A&M	117.8	95.7	22.1	67.4	14.9
20	Kansas	113.4	92.4	21	69.3	14.6
21	Michigan St.	114.2	92.7	21.5	67.4	14.5
22	Creighton	119.3	98.2	21.1	68.3	14.4
23	Clemson	119	96.9	22.1	65.2	14.4
24	Maryland	114.3	94.3	20	69.3	13.9
25	Saint Mary's	116.5	94.4	22.1	62.6	13.8

 

[Aike]

I think if Auburn loses (and I think they’re a great team), it will be because they spend too much time flopping and begging for calls.

They could very well cut it down. But man, watching their last 2 games, I’ve never seen a good team beg so much for calls.

I think this is a great point. They don’t act like they’ve been there.

	Team	O	D	ODM	T	ASM
1​	Duke	129.1	89.7	39.4	66.2	26.1
2​	Auburn	130.7	94.3	36.4	68.3	24.9
3​	Florida	127.1	92.9	34.2	69.6	23.8
4​	Alabama	127.4	98.1	29.3	75.1	22.0
5​	Houston	124.3	89.2	35.1	61.3	21.5
6​	Tennessee	119.2	88.1	31.1	63.8	19.8
7​	Gonzaga	125.1	97.9	27.2	70.4	19.1
8​	Michigan St.	118.1	91.1	27	67.8	18.3
9​	Texas Tech	124.8	97.2	27.6	65.9	18.2
10​	Wisconsin	123.9	97.2	26.7	67.7	18.1
11​	Iowa St.	118.7	92.8	25.9	68.9	17.8
12​	Kentucky	125.2	100.2	25	70.9	17.7

*Stats come from Kenpom
O* - Points per 100 possessions
D* - Opponent points per 100 possessions
ODM - Scoring margin per 100 possessions
T* - Number of possess per 40 minutes
ASM - Scoring margin adjusted for tempo

Very rudimentary metric I will admit. Just wanted to see what I could put together in a few minutes (I am a data analyst by trade so like playing with numbers.) Looks like the same teams are near the top as in your model, although in different order. The last 10 champions had an average ASM of 21.2, so the top 5 on this list would fit that average. We would need to get our D down to 95 points per 100 to hit that average.

Also, if I need to remove this from your thread I do not mind. Just let me know.

Not at all…this is great information. Personally feel like the top 3 teams on your list are the three most likely champions, so it checks out.

 

[_TrueBlue84_]

I think this is a great point. They don’t act like they’ve been there.


Not at all…this is great information. Personally feel like the top 3 teams on your list are the three most likely champions, so it checks out.

Thank you sir! You inspired me to toy around with it.

 

[_TrueBlue84_]

Ok...Here is my final version. It weights the last 30 days stats to matter 3 times more than early season. The stats come from the T-Rank site.

The ranking is based on scoring margin which has been adjusted for oppenents faced and tempo. ASM-E is the Adjusted Scoring Margin for the season prior to the last 30 days. ASM-L is the same for the last 30 days. ASM-T is the weighted Adjusted Scoring Margin.

Rank​	Team​	ASM-E​	ASM-L​	ASM-T​
1​	Auburn​	26.43​	23.94​	24.57​
2​	Duke​	22.71​	22.81​	22.78​
3​	Houston​	24.02​	21.82​	22.37​
4​	Alabama​	22.06​	20.24​	20.70​
5​	Florida​	20.39​	19.50​	19.72​
6​	Gonzaga​	18.40​	18.82​	18.71​
7​	Illinois​	19.99​	18.21​	18.65​
8​	Arizona​	18.03​	18.60​	18.46​
9​	Tennessee​	18.46​	18.33​	18.36​
10​	Iowa St.​	18.28​	17.69​	17.84​
11​	Purdue​	17.04​	17.89​	17.67​
12​	Kentucky​	18.21​	17.35​	17.57​
13​	Texas Tech​	18.42​	16.44​	16.93​
14​	Connecticut​	13.17​	17.95​	16.76​
15​	St. John's​	15.74​	15.93​	15.88​
16​	Wisconsin​	15.94​	15.01​	15.24​
17​	Kansas​	17.05​	14.62​	15.23​
18​	BYU​	15.12​	15.07​	15.08​
19​	Marquette​	14.93​	15.12​	15.07​
20​	Texas A&M​	14.92​	14.96​	14.95​
21​	Michigan St.​	15.73​	14.51​	14.82​
22​	Maryland​	17.56​	13.79​	14.73​
23​	Clemson​	12.76​	14.54​	14.09​
24​	Creighton​	12.78​	14.41​	14.00​
25​	Saint Mary's​	13.69​	13.90​	13.85​

 

[Aike]

Ok...Here is my final version. It weights the last 30 days stats to matter 3 times more than early season. The stats come from the T-Rank site.

The ranking is based on scoring margin which has been adjusted for oppenents faced and tempo. ASM-E is the Adjusted Scoring Margin for the season prior to the last 30 days. ASM-L is the same for the last 30 days. ASM-T is the weighted Adjusted Scoring Margin.

Rank​	Team​	ASM-E​	ASM-L​	ASM-T​
1​	Auburn​	26.43​	23.94​	24.57​
2​	Duke​	22.71​	22.81​	22.78​
3​	Houston​	24.02​	21.82​	22.37​
4​	Alabama​	22.06​	20.24​	20.70​
5​	Florida​	20.39​	19.50​	19.72​
6​	Gonzaga​	18.40​	18.82​	18.71​
7​	Illinois​	19.99​	18.21​	18.65​
8​	Arizona​	18.03​	18.60​	18.46​
9​	Tennessee​	18.46​	18.33​	18.36​
10​	Iowa St.​	18.28​	17.69​	17.84​
11​	Purdue​	17.04​	17.89​	17.67​
12​	Kentucky​	18.21​	17.35​	17.57​
13​	Texas Tech​	18.42​	16.44​	16.93​
14​	Connecticut​	13.17​	17.95​	16.76​
15​	St. John's​	15.74​	15.93​	15.88​
16​	Wisconsin​	15.94​	15.01​	15.24​
17​	Kansas​	17.05​	14.62​	15.23​
18​	BYU​	15.12​	15.07​	15.08​
19​	Marquette​	14.93​	15.12​	15.07​
20​	Texas A&M​	14.92​	14.96​	14.95​
21​	Michigan St.​	15.73​	14.51​	14.82​
22​	Maryland​	17.56​	13.79​	14.73​
23​	Clemson​	12.76​	14.54​	14.09​
24​	Creighton​	12.78​	14.41​	14.00​
25​	Saint Mary's​	13.69​	13.90​	13.85​

Illinois jumps out to me, because my model doesn’t like them all that much. Always good to have multiple data points, because no model gets everything right!