Aike’s Model Update - 1/5/25

[Aike]

Great day yesterday. We improved our score but stayed at number 10 as Mississippi St skipped past us.

Still shaping up to be easily the best field since 2019, when Gonzaga, UVA, and Duke were the top tier, with UNC and UK nipping at their heels.

Auburn’s metrics remain scary, but that’s why they play the games. As good as they are, they’ve lost once and been pushed twice. To be fair, all 3 of those challenges have come from top 7 teams.

Here’s the latest:

1. Auburn 4.89
2. Tennessee 3.66
3. Duke 3.40
4. Iowa St 3.06
5. Gonzaga 2.93
6. Connecticut 2.83
7. Houston 2.78
8. Michigan 2.77
9. Mississippi St 2.59
10. Kentucky 2.57
11. Texas Tech 2.51
12. Kansas 2.46
13. Arizona 2.43
14. Florida 2.37
15. Alabama 2.32
16. Marquette 2.26
17. Maryland 2.04
18. Vanderbilt 1.91
19. Arkansas 1.90
20. Pittsburgh 1.89
21. Ohio St 1.84
22. Georgia 1.82
23. Cincinnati 1.801
24. St John’s 1.797
25. Illinois 1.795
26. Mississippi 1.78
33. BYU 1.47
34. Purdue 1.45
36. Texas A&M 1.42
38. Missouri 1.39
39. Texas 1.29
43. Louisville 1.16
48. Oklahoma 1.10
49. N Carolina 1.09
59. LSU 0.86
61. Indiana 0.81
91. South Carolina 0.35

 

[Digger-Cat]

Wow, how is Gonzaga so high? They've lost to every big named team they have played, with the exception of the 40 point beatdown of Baylor in November.

 

[megablue]

#10 seems about right for Kentucky right now, it seems. Honestly, I wish we were ranked lower, as I think we play harder and better when perceived as the underdog fighting our way up the hill.

 

[Aike]

#10 seems about right for Kentucky right now, it seems. Honestly, I wish we were ranked lower, as I think we play harder and better when perceived as the underdog fighting our way up the hill.

Luckily (?) we’ll have plenty of chances to play the underdog role in SEC play.

 

[Digger-Cat]

I like being at 10, I think that's about right, but UK is better than several ahead of them here.

I think we have so much room for improvement. Just our rebounding alone could take us to the next level. We really suck on the glass, but also, our defense and ft shooting can greatly improve. Heck, Carr missed 4 straight free throws yesterday. Those would have been really big had he made them.

 

[Aike]

Wow, how is Gonzaga so high? They've lost to every big named team they have played, with the exception of the 40 point beatdown of Baylor in November.

Isn’t a poll. Doesn’t take wins and losses into account.

Considering how closely they played numbers 6 and 10 on technically neutral courts (although they were closer to home/away), probably not surprising that they would be among the best rated teams.

 

[Aike]

I like being at 10, I think that's about right, but UK is better than several ahead of them here.

I think we have so much room for improvement. Just our rebounding alone could take us to the next level. We really suck on the glass, but also, our defense and ft shooting can greatly improve. Heck, Carr missed 4 straight free throws yesterday. Those would have been really big had he made them.

It isn’t clear to me that we’re demonstrably better than any of the teams in front of us, but we’ve beaten 2 of them and get to play 3 more. We very much control our own destiny.

 

[WeWant9]

I’ve seen most of the top 15ish play, except for Mich. I was surprised to see them at #8. Will have to try and catch one of their games I guess.

 

[Aike]

I’ve seen most of the top 15ish play, except for Mich. I was surprised to see them at #8. Will have to try and catch one of their games I guess.

You probably know this, but Michigan is where Dusty May (former FAU coach) landed.

Seems like he knows what he’s doing.

 

[BBUK]

Great day yesterday. We improved our score but stayed at number 10 as Mississippi St skipped past us.

Still shaping up to be easily the best field since 2019, when Gonzaga, UVA, and Duke were the top tier, with UNC and UK nipping at their heels.

Auburn’s metrics remain scary, but that’s why they play the games. As good as they are, they’ve lost once and been pushed twice. To be fair, all 3 of those challenges have come from top 7 teams.

Here’s the latest:

1. Auburn 4.89
2. Tennessee 3.66
3. Duke 3.40
4. Iowa St 3.06
5. Gonzaga 2.93
6. Connecticut 2.83
7. Houston 2.78
8. Michigan 2.77
9. Mississippi St 2.59
10. Kentucky 2.57
11. Texas Tech 2.51
12. Kansas 2.46
13. Arizona 2.43
14. Florida 2.37
15. Alabama 2.32
16. Marquette 2.26
17. Maryland 2.04
18. Vanderbilt 1.91
19. Arkansas 1.90
20. Pittsburgh 1.89
21. Ohio St 1.84
22. Georgia 1.82
23. Cincinnati 1.801
24. St John’s 1.797
25. Illinois 1.795
26. Mississippi 1.78
33. BYU 1.47
34. Purdue 1.45
36. Texas A&M 1.42
38. Missouri 1.39
39. Texas 1.29
43. Louisville 1.16
48. Oklahoma 1.10
49. N Carolina 1.09
59. LSU 0.86
61. Indiana 0.81
91. South Carolina 0.35

Gonna have to body slam your achy breaky model Aike. Jk jk....

I fully understand but it sounded good...

 

[ukcatz12]

Isn’t a poll. Doesn’t take wins and losses into account.

I don't think people will ever understand that models like yours and Kenpom don't care about wins and losses.

 

[BlueSince92]

Wow, how is Gonzaga so high? They've lost to every big named team they have played, with the exception of the 40 point beatdown of Baylor in November.

Because the model measures efficiency in a lot of categories and compares that to same metrics for every other team. This is not an Aike bias thing. Gonzaga is also top 7 in Kenpom, NET, and T-Rank and is 9 in BPI. The fact they maintained those stellar efficiency numbers against multiple strong opponents even if they did lose is a big part of their ranking.

 

[docholiday51]

Gonna have to body slam your achy breaky model Aike. Jk jk....

I fully understand but it sounded good...

Does this mean you and Aike aren't friends anymore?

 

[BBUK]

Does this mean you and Aike aren't friends anymore?

What can I say, he moved... thought it was a nocturne but it was Frederick ((Q*$(Q&*@$#ing Chopin....

 

[Chief Paducah]

I just saw where Lunardi post on X a new bracketology. He pushed us to the last two seed, still behind Duke and Florida for whatever that’s worth.

 

[BBUK]

I just saw where Lunardi post on X a new bracketology. He pushed us to the last two seed, still behind Duke and Florida for whatever that’s worth.

"Ain't" worth taint...

 

[Digger-Cat]

I don't think people will ever understand that models like yours and Kenpom don't care about wins and losses.

Not true, trust me, I unserstand and so does everyone else.
I think what we want to know is, what are teams like Gonzaga, Michigan and Arizona doing to keep themselves so high?
Those teams are okay, but they don't have any great wins and with the exception of Gonzaga's large margin of victory over Baylor, none of them have done anything special.
But they're obviously doing something the metrics like.

 

[Aike]

Not true, trust me, I unserstand and so does everyone else.
I think what we want to know is, what are teams like Gonzaga, Michigan and Arizona doing to keep themselves so high?
Those teams are okay, but they don't have any great wins and with the exception of Gonzaga's large margin of victory over Baylor, none of them have done anything special.
But they're obviously doing something the metrics like.

All three have been solid across the board statistically while playing top 25 SOSs to date.

As far as stand-out metrics, Gonzaga shares the ball well without turning it over much. Arizona rebounds well. Michigan shoots the ball well and holds opponents to a low percentage.