Aike’s Model Update - 01/16/25

[Aike]

We’re up a tick after topping ATM.

1. Auburn 4.82
2. Duke 3.44
3. Tennessee 3.23
4. Houston 3.11
5. Iowa St 3.08
6. Kansas 2.92
7. Michigan 2.88
8. UConn 2.74
9. Arizona 2.60
10. Gonzaga 2.58
11. Kentucky 2.52
12. Texas Tech 2.39
13. Mississippi St 2.38
14. Alabama 2.34
15. Florida 2.29
16. Mississippi 2.23
17. Marquette 2.16
18. Purdue 2.14
19. Maryland 2.05
20. Michigan St 1.96
21. St. John’s 1.82
22. Illinois 1.80
23. Oregon 1.76
24. Missouri 1.73
25. Georgia 1.72
27. Vanderbilt 1.61
28. Ohio St 1.59
30. Clemson 1.58
31. Arkansas 1.51
34. BYU 1.46
37. Louisville 1.35
38. Texas 1.34
39. Texas A&M 1.31
42. N Carolina 1.26
43. Oklahoma 1.21
59. LSU 0.85
68. Indiana 0.66
93. S Carolina 0.36

 

[SemperFiCat]

Michigan?? Are they playing well this year? Boy, I bet that's salt in IU's giant, gaping, bloody wound. Lol.

 

[yabbadabbadoo]

We’d never beat Duke if we squared off
They’re .92 better than us

 

[Aike]

Michigan?? Are they playing well this year? Boy, I bet that's salt in IU's giant, gaping, bloody wound. Lol.

They are under the radar

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

I really like Michigan. They’re good.

 

[UKwootwoot]

The difference between #1 Auburn and #2 Duke is about the same as #2 Duke and #19 Maryland…. I get that they’re talented and deep, but is there some weird metrics calculation that skyrockets them compared to everyone else?

 

[Aike]

The difference between #1 Auburn and #2 Duke is about the same as #2 Duke and #19 Maryland…. I get that they’re talented and deep, but is there some weird metrics calculation that skyrockets them compared to everyone else?

If you don’t come ready to play they will beat the brakes off of you. That’s about it.

They’ve shown that they are gettable. Just better come ready.

 

[Aike]

For the record, these numbers are saying that Auburn should be a 3 point favorite over Duke on a neutral court.

 

[UKwootwoot]

For the record, these numbers are saying that Auburn should be a 3 point favorite over Duke on a neutral court.

As someone that doesn’t understand this model at all, are you able to explain that a bit with the numbers presented?

 

[CatOfDaVille]

If you don’t come ready to play they will beat the brakes off of you. That’s about it.

They’ve shown that they are gettable. Just better come ready.

Auburn is tough AF. This might be the team that gets Pearl his championship if they can get Broome back healthy and playing like he was.

I'm very happy with Pope, but Pearl would have absolutely killed it here.

 

[CatEye2010]

I really like Michigan. They’re good.

They just lost at Minny in OT. 9/9 Minny.

 

[MachineHead1]

They just lost at Minny in OT. 9/9 Minny.

Road games are weird.

 

[ralphdaltonfan]

Michigan has talent upfront. They have Wolf/Goldin but aside from them-they have stretches where Roddy Gayle looks to be point shaving and Tre Donaldson will throw the ball into the 5th row. Just crazy empty possessions filled with turnovers. They also are a bad defensive team aside from Goldin blocking some shots. Every Michigan game falls into a pattern-they get a double digit lead looking unbeatable and as if they will win by 30--then they throw the ball away, guys take "get mine" shots and ignore Wolf having the ball--blow the lead--trail--and scramble to regain the lead playing through Wolf and in Big Ten play hold on for a margin that shouldn't have been as close as possible. They are a team you should never gamble on if you do partake in that activity. LOL

Losing to Arkansas at MSG was awful. This loss tonight is unspeakable. Minnesota is a rotting corpse. They are drawing less people than a Calipari fan club meeting in Lexington. It's brutal. Ben Johnson is likely to be fired. Tonight was his first win in his tenure over a ranked team. Big Ten is a 5 bid league that will get 6 and their conference will talk as if they get 11/12 teams in NCAA.

 

[Aike]

Michigan has talent upfront. They have Wolf/Goldin but aside from them-they have stretches where Roddy Gayle looks to be point shaving and Tre Donaldson will throw the ball into the 5th row. Just crazy empty possessions filled with turnovers. They also are a bad defensive team aside from Goldin blocking some shots. Every Michigan game falls into a pattern-they get a double digit lead looking unbeatable and as if they will win by 30--then they throw the ball away, guys take "get mine" shots and ignore Wolf having the ball--blow the lead--trail--and scramble to regain the lead playing through Wolf and in Big Ten play hold on for a margin that shouldn't have been as close as possible. They are a team you should never gamble on if you do partake in that activity. LOL

Losing to Arkansas at MSG was awful. This loss tonight is unspeakable. Minnesota is a rotting corpse. They are drawing less people than a Calipari fan club meeting in Lexington. It's brutal. Ben Johnson is likely to be fired. Tonight was his first win in his tenure over a ranked team. Big Ten is a 5 bid league that will get 6 and their conference will talk as if they get 11/12 teams in NCAA.

Always appreciate your insights, especially on Big 10 teams. Sounds to me like Michigan is doing the fundamentally sound things necessary to make their metrics look great early in the game, then playing loose (if not cheating) deeper into the game. Very interesting.

Almost the opposite of Kentucky, where we usually keep banging on you for 40 minutes and make it hard for you to guard us the whole time.

I’m started to be convinced that a lot of our slow starts are more that teams are prepared for us at tip off, but by some point in the second half they get tired of chasing us into every corner and we hit them with a run.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Always appreciate your insights, especially on Big 10 teams. Sounds to me like Michigan is doing the fundamentally sound things necessary to make their metrics look great early in the game, then playing loose (if not cheating) deeper into the game. Very interesting.

Almost the opposite of Kentucky, where we usually keep banging on you for 40 minutes and make it hard for you to guard us the whole time.

I’m started to be convinced that a lot of our slow starts are more that teams are prepared for us at tip off, but by some point in the second half they get tired of chasing us into every corner and we hit them with a run.

I'll give YOU some insights, bub.. TAM is Texas Agriculture and Mechanical..

ATM is something else, and im not talking about cash machines.

 

[irishcat1965]

Michigan just lost to Minnesota which was previously 0-5 in the conference. Doubt they are anywhere near a top ten team but comfortably in the top 25.

 

[Aike]

Michigan just lost to Minnesota which was previously 0-5 in the conference. Doubt they are anywhere near a top ten team but comfortably in the top 25.

We lost by 20 to Ohio St. You may be correct, but attempting to rate each team by their worst loss or best win will almost always get you very skewed results.

 

[Digger-Cat]

They are under the radar

Looks like Minnesota found them on their radar and torpedoed their asses.

 

[irishcat1965]

We lost by 20 to Ohio St. You may be correct, but attempting to rate each team by their worst loss or best win will almost always get you very skewed results.

Kentucky has five top 15 wins. Michigan doesn’t. It isn’t just the one loss to a horrendous Minnesota team.

 

[Montana81]

We lost by 20 to Ohio St. You may be correct, but attempting to rate each team by their worst loss or best win will almost always get you very skewed results.

That’s the one game I wish we could have back. The georgia and clemson games…i think we were losing those no matter what. We absolutely crapped the bed against Ohio State.

 

[Aike]

That’s the one game I wish we could have back. The georgia and clemson games…i think we were losing those no matter what. We absolutely crapped the bed against Ohio State.

Our heads weren’t right that day, for whatever reason.

 

[Digger-Cat]

I'm amazed at how some teams do things that shoot them up the metrics, but they keep losing games. Gonzaga, UConn and Arizona have definitely figured it out, but they are struggling in key areas that cause them to lose games.

Also, Houston is another one that is really high in all the metrics, but they haven't beaten anybody. Their defense is so good that they just smother most of the teams they play and beat them by a sizable margin, but their lack of offense is going to get them beat when they play top shelf teams.

But at some point, Gonzaga is going to take a tumble, they're only good win is Baylor, they've lost to every other team they have played and I don't consider Oregon State a good team.

Hats off to you guys (Aike) that do these metrics though, I know it's a fun thing to do for those that know how to set it up. It's definitely impressive from my point of view, I'd love to learn how to do it.

 

[irishcat1965]

Our heads weren’t right that day, for whatever reason.

That loss may have been just what the team needed. The 1998 title team lost to UL in Rupp and UL ended up with a losing record that year.

 

[Short-Dawg-69]

Michigan and the Zags loss yesterday to unranked teams.