Aike’s Model - *Since 2/2 Only* - 3/9/25 Update

[Aike]

Thought this would be fun to look at. Ran the numbers for only the past 5 weeks.

Keep in mind that with a smaller sample size comes more skew, so any really good or bad game can have an outsized impact.

Also, because my methodology is a little more simplistic than for my normal model, there are extremes at both ends.

Duke, while playing great, isn’t quite this good.

Texas, who I don’t even list, barely registered a pulse after going 2-7.

I would view this as directional data. A pretty good indicator of who is playing well or poorly, but not nearly as accurate as the overall model for predicting overall tournament wins.

Here’s how things look:

1. Duke 5.22
2. Florida 4.05
3. Auburn 3.56
4. Gonzaga 3.28
5. Texas Tech 3.09
6. Clemson 2.9303
7. Kentucky 2.9299
8. UCLA 2.83
9. Tennessee 2.75
10. Houston 2.70
11. Missouri 2.60
12. Iowa St 2.59
13. Alabama 2.49
14. Xavier 2.45
15. Maryland 2.41
16. Arizona 2.41
17. Michigan St 2.33
18. St John’s 2.30
19. Oregon 2.21
20. BYU 2.17
21. Louisville 2.14
22. VCU 1.91
23. UCSD 1.87
24. Arkansas 1.84
25. Colorado St 1.82
26. N Carolina 1.73
27. Georgia 1.67
28. Kansas 1.60
29. Vanderbilt 1.59
31. Indiana 1.52
32. Mississippi St 1.52
39. Texas A&M 1.30
61. Mississippi 0.74
68. Oklahoma 0.67
71. Ohio St 0.62
86. S Carolina 0.45
109. LSU 0.29

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

Thanks. I have been basically looking at data from 2/3 to current. Good to see we have been playing better and more able to defend. I would think BYU would be a lot higher in this run. As well as Michigan State.

 

[Aike]

Thanks. I have been basically looking at data from 2/3 to current. Good to see we have been playing better and more able to defend. I would think BYU would be a lot higher in this run. As well as Michigan State.

They have both improved since 2/2, but so have several other teams, us included.

 

[Aike]

A few things that jump out:

UCLA at 8 and Xavier at 14 could be 11 seeds, and possible second round opponents for us.

If you’re looking for mid-majors who could spoil, look no further than VCU and UCSD at 22 and 23.

Mississippi has noticeably hit a rough patch.

Florida still feels like the most dangerous team in the country to me.

 

[BlueSince92]

A&M wow that's an eye-opening nosedive

 

[gbl97]

I wonder what our Kenpom numbers are the last 5 weeks?

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

This is awesome Aike

 

[Aike]

A&M wow that's an eye-opening nosedive

Na, they stay around the 30s in my model. Consistently meh.

 

[Aike]

I wonder what our Kenpom numbers are the last 5 weeks?

Not sure. Maybe someone who pays for kenpom subscription can tell.

 

[ralphdaltonfan]

A few things that jump out:

UCLA at 8 and Xavier at 14 could be 11 seeds, and possible second round opponents for us.

If you’re looking for mid-majors who could spoil, look no further than VCU and UCSD at 22 and 23.

Mississippi has noticeably hit a rough patch.

Florida still feels like the most dangerous team in the country to me.

Don't be surprised to see Xavier win the BET. They have Freemantle back and they've been most talented offensive team in Big East.

 

[gharding07]

Gonzaga is surprising.

 

[Fox2monk]

Thought this would be fun to look at. Ran the numbers for only the past 5 weeks.

Keep in mind that with a smaller sample size comes more skew, so any really good or bad game can have an outsized impact.

Also, because my methodology is a little more simplistic than for my normal model, there are extremes at both ends.

Duke, while playing great, isn’t quite this good.

Texas, who I don’t even list, barely registered a pulse after going 2-7.

I would view this as directional data. A pretty good indicator of who is playing well or poorly, but not nearly as accurate as the overall model for predicting overall tournament wins.

Here’s how things look:

1. Duke 5.22
2. Florida 4.05
3. Auburn 3.56
4. Gonzaga 3.28
5. Texas Tech 3.09
6. Clemson 2.9303
7. Kentucky 2.9299
8. UCLA 2.83
9. Tennessee 2.75
10. Houston 2.70
11. Missouri 2.60
12. Iowa St 2.59
13. Alabama 2.49
14. Xavier 2.45
15. Maryland 2.41
16. Arizona 2.41
17. Michigan St 2.33
18. St John’s 2.30
19. Oregon 2.21
20. BYU 2.17
21. Louisville 2.14
22. VCU 1.91
23. UCSD 1.87
24. Arkansas 1.84
25. Colorado St 1.82
26. N Carolina 1.73
27. Georgia 1.67
28. Kansas 1.60
29. Vanderbilt 1.59
31. Indiana 1.52
32. Mississippi St 1.52
39. Texas A&M 1.30
61. Mississippi 0.74
68. Oklahoma 0.67
71. Ohio St 0.62
86. S Carolina 0.45
109. LSU 0.29

Any thing around 3 is nice. I like to see we are trending up, our play has shown that overall. Duke is wrecking such weak teams their metrics are always gonna be crazy. To be fair they wreck Illinois and they are pretty good. UNC while not being anything special isn’t a total cakewalk and they owned them too. Plus beat UofL at Louisville but outside this window.

 

[fatguy87]

Run it starting from 2/7 so that the Ole Miss game isn't in the calc lol

 

[Fox2monk]

Gonzaga is surprising.

Zags have had good metrics all year. They do what they do well.

 

[Aike]

A few things that jump out:

UCLA at 8 and Xavier at 14 could be 11 seeds, and possible second round opponents for us.

If you’re looking for mid-majors who could spoil, look no further than VCU and UCSD at 22 and 23.

Mississippi has noticeably hit a rough patch.

Florida still feels like the most dangerous team in the country to me.

A few things that jump out:

UCLA at 8 and Xavier at 14 could be 11 seeds, and possible second round opponents for us.

If you’re looking for mid-majors who could spoil, look no further than VCU and UCSD at 22 and 23.

Mississippi has noticeably hit a rough patch.

Florida still feels like the most dangerous team in the country to me.

*should have said UCLA could be a 6. Still a potential second round opponent.

 

[Bogansback2Basil]

Thought this would be fun to look at. Ran the numbers for only the past 5 weeks.

Keep in mind that with a smaller sample size comes more skew, so any really good or bad game can have an outsized impact.

Also, because my methodology is a little more simplistic than for my normal model, there are extremes at both ends.

Duke, while playing great, isn’t quite this good.

Texas, who I don’t even list, barely registered a pulse after going 2-7.

I would view this as directional data. A pretty good indicator of who is playing well or poorly, but not nearly as accurate as the overall model for predicting overall tournament wins.

Here’s how things look:

1. Duke 5.22
2. Florida 4.05
3. Auburn 3.56
4. Gonzaga 3.28
5. Texas Tech 3.09
6. Clemson 2.9303
7. Kentucky 2.9299
8. UCLA 2.83
9. Tennessee 2.75
10. Houston 2.70
11. Missouri 2.60
12. Iowa St 2.59
13. Alabama 2.49
14. Xavier 2.45
15. Maryland 2.41
16. Arizona 2.41
17. Michigan St 2.33
18. St John’s 2.30
19. Oregon 2.21
20. BYU 2.17
21. Louisville 2.14
22. VCU 1.91
23. UCSD 1.87
24. Arkansas 1.84
25. Colorado St 1.82
26. N Carolina 1.73
27. Georgia 1.67
28. Kansas 1.60
29. Vanderbilt 1.59
31. Indiana 1.52
32. Mississippi St 1.52
39. Texas A&M 1.30
61. Mississippi 0.74
68. Oklahoma 0.67
71. Ohio St 0.62
86. S Carolina 0.45
109. LSU 0.29

Aike, I am very appreciative of your work. Thank you. Always.

 

[_TrueBlue84_]

Great stuff! Top three make sense to me except that I would think Auburn and Florida are a lot closer to Duke than numbers suggest.

 

[Aike]

Great stuff! Top three make sense to me except that I would think Auburn and Florida are a lot closer to Duke than numbers suggest.

There is some skew to that Duke number for sure, but they have been demoralizing their schedule.

Definitely beatable, and I maintain that Florida feels more dangerous.

Never know what might happen when the lights get bright, though. Alabama made that run last year, and they are definitely in the mix to do it again, especially if they can get a better handle on ball security.

 

[BlueSince92]

Na, they stay around the 30s in my model. Consistently meh.

Thanks, I missed that