Aike’s model - Post Alabama Update - 2/23/25

[Aike]

Was almost too aggravated to run this today, but the more I thought about it, I felt like we did enough well that it wouldn’t ding us much.

As it turns out, we held onto the exact same spot and actually IMPROVED our rating very slightly.

Basically, both teams played at an Elite Eight level yesterday. We were done in by being on the road, and probably getting a bit “unlucky.” I’ll let you decide what unlucky means.

Fairly remarkable to be playing at such a high level down 2 (3) key guys. For the most part, we are probably still undervaluing this team.

The latest:

1. Auburn 4.23
2. Duke 3.60
3. Tennessee 3.21
4. Houston 2.93
5. Florida 2.83
6. Gonzaga 2.75
7. Iowa St 2.74
8. Arizona 2.73
9. Texas Tech 2.53
10. Missouri 2.22
11. Alabama 2.21
12. Purdue 2.20
13. Maryland 2.14
14. Connecticut 2.13
15. Kansas 2.12
16. Mississippi St 2.10
17. Clemson 2.07
18. Kentucky 2.05
19. St John’s 2.04
20. Michigan 2.03
21. Michigan St 1.91
22. BYU 1.89
23. Mississippi 1.87
24. UCLA 1.78
25. Marquette 1.77
26. Arkansas 1.69
27. Wisconsin 1.59
28. Louisville 1.58
29. Vanderbilt 1.56
31. Georgia 1.45
35. Texas A&M 1.39
37. Ohio St 1.35
45. Texas 1.18
46. Oklahoma 1.17
47. N Carolina 1.12
61. Indiana 0.81
72. LSU 0.64
82. S Carolina 0.48

 

[Aike]

Ok, one glaring example of “bad luck.” Generated 13 steals but were only able to produce 11 total points off of turnovers.

Actually were outscored 24-11 in points off turnovers, which matched the final margin.

 

[Aike]

Another note…the spread between 21 and 10 is the same as the spread between 9 and 10.

Those second round 3/6 and 4/5 games are going to be epic. Until half the 5s and 6s get upset in the first round.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

First - I thought the officiating last night was garbage. Terrible. Big time one sided. Some of that is our own fault for not flopping like our opponent. Some of it is the home crowd affecting the officials. Some of it is just plain bullshit.

Second, no way in hell we should even be in that game with 5 to go with the roster we came in with. I was so pissed during the game with all of the stupid and glaring mistakes we made. But we were doing that with our two best players out; along with our back up point guard out.

With that loss we:
- went up on NET
- improved in defensive efficiency
- stayed the same in offensive efficiency
- earned a lot of valuable experience for our bench in a tough and crazy environment, pkaying a 1/2 seed.

Not too bad considering. Gotta really give Pope some credit honestly. Amari has to play more. Garrison a lot less. Other than that he did a damn good job overall.

 

[Aike]

First - I thought the officiating last night was garbage. Terrible. Big time one sided. Some of that is our own fault for not flopping like our opponent. Some of it is the home crowd affecting the officials. Some of it is just plain bullshit.

Second, no way in hell we should even be in that game with 5 to go with the roster we came in with. I was so pissed during the game with all of the stupid and glaring mistakes we made. But we were doing that with our two best players out; along with our back up point guard out.

With that loss we:
- went up on NET
- improved in defensive efficiency
- stayed the same in offensive efficiency
- earned a lot of valuable experience for our bench in a tough and crazy environment, pkaying a 1/2 seed.

Not too bad considering. Gotta really give Pope some credit honestly. Amari has to play more. Garrison a lot less. Other than that he did a damn good job overall.

If you didn’t already know the fix was in, it became obvious when Chandler hit the 3 to cut it to 9.

Next trip they ignore a clear push in the back on Amari, then give Sears more free throws for falling down.

They were going to do whatever it took to push it past that spread. A spread that actually didn’t make much sense unless the fix was in to begin with.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

If you didn’t already know the fix was in, it became obvious when Chandler hit the 3 to cut it to 9.

Next trip they ignore a clear push in the back on Amari, then give Sears more free throws for falling down.

They were going to do whatever it took to push it past that spread. A spread that actually didn’t make much sense unless the fix was in to begin with.

You don’t have to convince me brother.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Interesting that Gonzaga didn't seem to fall much. I know your model really likes them, but some were talking about the loss to SMC being a pretty big deal. They're looking like they could be a 9-seed and actually have some work to do you make sure they don't need to win their conference tournament.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Interesting that Gonzaga didn't seem to fall much. I know your model really likes them, but some were talking about the loss to SMC being a pretty big deal. They're looking like they could be a 9-seed and actually have some work to do you make sure they don't need to win their conference tournament.

Gonzaga is going to be a good case study when/if they do get in lol.

 

[Aike]

Interesting that Gonzaga didn't seem to fall much. I know your model really likes them, but some were talking about the loss to SMC being a pretty big deal. They're looking like they could be a 9-seed and actually have some work to do you make sure they don't need to win their conference tournament.

Think of it this way…they dropped 0.07 points and they are 29 games into the season.

Roughly speaking, this means their single game score was something like 0.8 vs. St.Mary’s. So they basically played like a team that would lose a first round tournament game.

And I’m sure this will impact their seeding. Will be very interesting if they drop Gonzaga into that 10 or 11 range or if they stay on the 8/9 line.

Still feel like having either Gonzaga or UConn on the 8/9 is a potential problem for the 1s, but the committee loves that stuff.

Imagine second round games with Auburn vs. UConn and Florida vs. Gonzaga. Give anybody those matchups in November and they would have expected the favorites to be reversed.

 

[Aike]

Gonzaga is going to be a good case study when/if they do get in lol.

No doubt. Seems like somewhere along the way they forgot how to win tight games, but hard to ignore the fact that Few gets them in the Sweet 16 every stinking year. Something has got to give.

 

[Aike]

For the record, Gonzaga has made the Sweet Sixteen or better for 9 straight years and they’ve won at least their first round game 15 straight. Incredible.

Also probably not surprising they model so well, considering a team that plays the way they do statistically (them) has been a 2+ win team for nearly a decade straight.