Aike’s model - Post Alabama Update - 2/23/25

[Aike]

Was almost too aggravated to run this today, but the more I thought about it, I felt like we did enough well that it wouldn’t ding us much.

As it turns out, we held onto the exact same spot and actually IMPROVED our rating very slightly.

Basically, both teams played at an Elite Eight level yesterday. We were done in by being on the road, and probably getting a bit “unlucky.” I’ll let you decide what unlucky means.

Fairly remarkable to be playing at such a high level down 2 (3) key guys. For the most part, we are probably still undervaluing this team.

The latest:

1. Auburn 4.23
2. Duke 3.60
3. Tennessee 3.21
4. Houston 2.93
5. Florida 2.83
6. Gonzaga 2.75
7. Iowa St 2.74
8. Arizona 2.73
9. Texas Tech 2.53
10. Missouri 2.22
11. Alabama 2.21
12. Purdue 2.20
13. Maryland 2.14
14. Connecticut 2.13
15. Kansas 2.12
16. Mississippi St 2.10
17. Clemson 2.07
18. Kentucky 2.05
19. St John’s 2.04
20. Michigan 2.03
21. Michigan St 1.91
22. BYU 1.89
23. Mississippi 1.87
24. UCLA 1.78
25. Marquette 1.77
26. Arkansas 1.69
27. Wisconsin 1.59
28. Louisville 1.58
29. Vanderbilt 1.56
31. Georgia 1.45
35. Texas A&M 1.39
37. Ohio St 1.35
45. Texas 1.18
46. Oklahoma 1.17
47. N Carolina 1.12
61. Indiana 0.81
72. LSU 0.64
82. S Carolina 0.48

 

[Aike]

Ok, one glaring example of “bad luck.” Generated 13 steals but were only able to produce 11 total points off of turnovers.

Actually were outscored 24-11 in points off turnovers, which matched the final margin.

 

[Aike]

Another note…the spread between 21 and 10 is the same as the spread between 9 and 10.

Those second round 3/6 and 4/5 games are going to be epic. Until half the 5s and 6s get upset in the first round.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

First - I thought the officiating last night was garbage. Terrible. Big time one sided. Some of that is our own fault for not flopping like our opponent. Some of it is the home crowd affecting the officials. Some of it is just plain bullshit.

Second, no way in hell we should even be in that game with 5 to go with the roster we came in with. I was so pissed during the game with all of the stupid and glaring mistakes we made. But we were doing that with our two best players out; along with our back up point guard out.

With that loss we:
- went up on NET
- improved in defensive efficiency
- stayed the same in offensive efficiency
- earned a lot of valuable experience for our bench in a tough and crazy environment, pkaying a 1/2 seed.

Not too bad considering. Gotta really give Pope some credit honestly. Amari has to play more. Garrison a lot less. Other than that he did a damn good job overall.

 

[Aike]

First - I thought the officiating last night was garbage. Terrible. Big time one sided. Some of that is our own fault for not flopping like our opponent. Some of it is the home crowd affecting the officials. Some of it is just plain bullshit.

Second, no way in hell we should even be in that game with 5 to go with the roster we came in with. I was so pissed during the game with all of the stupid and glaring mistakes we made. But we were doing that with our two best players out; along with our back up point guard out.

With that loss we:
- went up on NET
- improved in defensive efficiency
- stayed the same in offensive efficiency
- earned a lot of valuable experience for our bench in a tough and crazy environment, pkaying a 1/2 seed.

Not too bad considering. Gotta really give Pope some credit honestly. Amari has to play more. Garrison a lot less. Other than that he did a damn good job overall.

If you didn’t already know the fix was in, it became obvious when Chandler hit the 3 to cut it to 9.

Next trip they ignore a clear push in the back on Amari, then give Sears more free throws for falling down.

They were going to do whatever it took to push it past that spread. A spread that actually didn’t make much sense unless the fix was in to begin with.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

If you didn’t already know the fix was in, it became obvious when Chandler hit the 3 to cut it to 9.

Next trip they ignore a clear push in the back on Amari, then give Sears more free throws for falling down.

They were going to do whatever it took to push it past that spread. A spread that actually didn’t make much sense unless the fix was in to begin with.

You don’t have to convince me brother.