Aike’s Model 3/9/25 Update

[Aike]

1. Auburn 4.22
2. Duke 3.86
3. Tennessee 3.03
4. Florida 2.98
5. Houston 2.94
6. Gonzaga 2.88
7. Iowa St 2.64
8. Texas Tech 2.61
9. Arizona 2.55
10. Alabama 2.36
11. Kentucky 2.29
12. UConn 2.19
13. Maryland 2.18
14. Missouri 2.162
15. Kansas 2.158
16. Clemson 2.09
17. Purdue 2.07
18. UCLA 2.02
19. St John’s 2.01
20. Michigan St 1.97
21. BYU 1.93
22. Mississippi St 1.88
23. Marquette 1.77
24. Michigan 1.75
25. Mississippi 1.65
27. Louisville 1.592
28. Georgia 1.5889
29. Arkansas 1.5886
30. Vanderbilt 1.55
35. Texas A&M 1.34
38. Ohio St 1.2945
39. N Carolina 1.2898
41. Oklahoma 1.27
48. Texas 1.05
52. Indiana 0.99
75. LSU 0.61
83. S Carolina 0.47

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Top 12 means we have a legitimate shot at an Elite 8 run. Maybe even farther.

The guys from the Field of 68 were talking about how over the last seven or eight games, Kentucky's defense is top 16 in the nation.

People forget that we've done a lot of this without Jaxson Robinson. They also tend to forget that we beat Duke with Robinson playing like cow manure that game.

Obviously we won't be a favorite to make the final four, but in an individual game setting, this Kentucky team has the firepower to beat the best teams in the country.

 

[ThroughBlue]

In all honesty if we win two tournament games this year I’m gonna consider it a successful season. Anything over that I’m walking around chubby for awhile

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Top 12 means we have a legitimate shot at an Elite 8 run. Maybe even farther.

The guys from the Field of 68 were talking about how over the last seven or eight games, Kentucky's defense is top 16 in the nation.

People forget that we've done a lot of this without Jaxson Robinson. They also tend to forget that we beat Duke with Robinson playing like cow manure that game.

Obviously we won't be a favorite to make the final four, but in an individual game setting, this Kentucky team has the firepower to beat the best teams in the country.

It's funny, when you look at Jrobs year. He was pretty OK to start. Some good performances but also some really bad shooting nights. There were a lot of game threads where a lot of us questioned if he shouldnt be benched for a bit. Then he starts to come alive after a few games in the SEC and everyone collectively says "ok, this is the Jrob weve been waiting for"... then gets injured. Never really comes back.

So we really only tapped into his potential for a mid January stretch of games. And his defense was always just OK as I recall. It kind of feels like we lost something we never really had with Jrob.. almost like we've gotten used to playing with him and maybe other players are filling the holes defensively.

 

[Bluesnky]

It’s crazy to think that we had a 3 digit ranking in defensive efficiency 5 weeks ago.

 

[IbnSaran]

It's funny, when you look at Jrobs year. He was pretty OK to start. Some good performances but also some really bad shooting nights. There were a lot of game threads where a lot of us questioned if he shouldnt be benched for a bit. Then he starts to come alive after a few games in the SEC and everyone collectively says "ok, this is the Jrob weve been waiting for"... then gets injured. Never really comes back.

So we really only tapped into his potential for a mid January stretch of games. And his defense was always just OK as I recall. It kind of feels like we lost something we never really had with Jrob.. almost like we've gotten used to playing with him and maybe other players are filling the holes defensively.

Not that we don't or won't miss Jrob but in my mind it's been Carr and Butler we have missed the most. Carr was able to play but very limited. I am very surprised he has recovered so quickly. I think mid season people forgot how instrumental he was in our early season wins.

 

[Oldbluefart]

Aike: I would like to know you're thinking on UCon higher than St. Johns.
Not questioning you or why, just curious what you are seeing.
Thanks for doing this; look forward each week to see where progress is

 

[Cats192]

Top 12 means we have a legitimate shot at an Elite 8 run. Maybe even farther.

The guys from the Field of 68 were talking about how over the last seven or eight games, Kentucky's defense is top 16 in the nation.

People forget that we've done a lot of this without Jaxson Robinson. They also tend to forget that we beat Duke with Robinson playing like cow manure that game.

Obviously we won't be a favorite to make the final four, but in an individual game setting, this Kentucky team has the firepower to beat the best teams in the country.

Playing with Torvik just now,

If you start on February 18th, we're the 8th best team in the nation. 17th best offense, 23rd best defense.

 

[EliteBlue]

Playing with Torvik just now,

If you start on February 18th, we're the 8th best team in the nation. 17th best offense, 23rd best defense.

Directly coincides with a healthy-ish Butler and Chandler’s emergence. Chandlers defensive addition and being another athlete that can take his man off the dribble occasionally has completely changed this teamin the last 3 weeks

 

[Aike]

Aike: I would like to know you're thinking on UCon higher than St. Johns.
Not questioning you or why, just curious what you are seeing.
Thanks for doing this; look forward each week to see where progress is

It’s really due to the offensive limitations of St. John’s. UConn is still a very serviceable team when healthy. Both are pretty good teams.

One extra that UConn has going for them is that they block a lot of shots. Being disruptive in this way can help swing tournament games,

 

[runt#69]

Directly coincides with a healthy-ish Butler and Chandler’s emergence. Chandlers defensive addition and being another athlete that can take his man off the dribble occasionally has completely changed this teamin the last 3 weeks

I would definitely add the unexpected contributions from Perry and Noah have been something other teams were not prepared for, and the Vols sure weren't both times we played them. Getting timely contributions from the developing role players (which, imho, every team needs to win a title) have made all the difference for us, especially now that we're without Robinson for the remainder of the year. Garrison has come along very nicely. Almonor is there as well. I'm even counting on him making more big shots in crunch time too.

Our bench play has been the single most underrated aspect of this team's success. Earlier on, it was BREA coming off the bench (!) and company, now it's Garrison, Chandler, Perry, Noah and Almonor stepping up to make the difference defensively making huge strides and communicating better as a team.

It's been the defensive effort and effort on rebounding and getting to those 50/50 balls, where I **think** we've actually gotten BETTER at, and that was what Coach Pope wanted all along.

We just gotta' keep executing the gameplan, prepare as well as we can for our assignments, and go out there with a tough defensive front and make shots. Attention to detail. We've proven we can do that and we can beat anyone out there.

Now is the time.