Aike’s Model - 2/12/25 Update

[Aike]

Cats back above 2.0, which I consider “contender” status.

1. Auburn 4.42
2. Duke 3.30
3. Tennessee 3.25
4. Houston 2.94
5. Arizona 2.69
6. Florida 2.64
7. Gonzaga 2.62
8. Iowa St 2.59
9. Alabama 2.43
10. Kansas 2.333
11. Texas Tech 2.331
12. Purdue 2.328
13. Connecticut 2.25
14. Michigan 2.15
15. Mississippi 2.04
16. Mississippi St 2.01
17. Kentucky 2.00
18. Maryland 1.98
19. St John’s 1.95
20. Missouri 1.93
21. UCLA 1.87
22. Clemson 1.84
23. Marquette 1.82
24. Michigan St 1.68
25. Georgia 1.58
26. Arkansas 1.56
28. BYU 1.52
30. Vanderbilt 1.50
31. Louisville 1.45
32. Texas A&M 1.43
34. Ohio St 1.42
39. Oklahoma 1.34
44. Texas 1.25
49. N Carolina 1.06
59. Indiana 0.81
70. LSU 0.66
88. S Carolina 0.44

 

[TheDude73]

Got to 7 and then I quit.

 

[Montana81]

“Well your model is stupid because we beat duke and florida and tennessee and gonzaga and it still says all those teams that we beat are better than us”

*smile*

 

[Aike]

“Well your model is stupid because we beat duke and florida and tennessee and gonzaga and it still says all those teams that we beat are better than us”

*smile*

Every time

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Clemson, Arkansas, and Ohio State all look like somewhat respectable losses now, especially given how banged up Kentucky was when they played them.

 

[TheDude73]

“Well your model is stupid because we beat duke and florida and tennessee and gonzaga and it still says all those teams that we beat are better than us”

*smile*

I don't think his model is stupid at all. I just see Gonzaga up there and still laugh. Somehow they've managed to design a schedule that exploits these models in their favor.

 

[Aike]

I don't think his model is stupid at all. I just see Gonzaga up there and still laugh. Somehow they've managed to design a schedule that exploits these models in their favor.

They’ve lost 4 games in regulation by a combined 17 points, and they’ve lost 3 games in overtime.

Maybe they aren’t quite as good as the model thinks, but I’d say they’ve also been a bit unlucky.

 

[Cold Stout Beer]

 

[$Z71$]

Anyone else feel like this years Team is a lot like UCONN 2022-2023. They were 19-7 and then only loss after in conference tournament. Not saying our results will be the same but I do see the similarities in performance to this point.

 

[Aike]

Anyone else feel like this years Team is a lot like UCONN 2022-2023. They were 19-7 and then only loss after in conference tournament. Not saying our results will be the same but I do see the similarities in performance to this point.

Not a bad thought. I think the overall field is better this year though. Hope we heal up.

 

[-BBH-]

How has your models performed against past Final Four/National Championship results?

 

[bbncal02]

They’ve lost 4 games in regulation by a combined 17 points, and they’ve lost 3 games in overtime.

Maybe they aren’t quite as good as the model thinks, but I’d say they’ve also been a bit unlucky.

But once again, it's their conference. They play NOBODY. So when they lose, it's like, "Huh.....lost to a weak team." KInda like losses in the ACC right now. Like, how bad are you to lose to most of those teams?

 

[The_Answer1313]

Gonzaga is a clear example of resumes and computer metrics and models not lining up.

Currently 7th in this model.
Projected on Bracket Matrix to be a ...........9 seed.

That's a massive difference.

Are they the 7th best team in the nation? Probably not.
Do I think they are closer to that than a 9 seed? Yes. 100%.

No 1 seed wants to see Gonzaga in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

 

[BlueBomb]

Clemson, Arkansas, and Ohio State all look like somewhat respectable losses now, especially given how banged up Kentucky was when they played them.

Arkansas was NOT a respectable loss. No way, no how.

 

[ralphdaltonfan]

I respect your model always Aike. Just never see teams like UH/Tennessee winning a National Title or in case of Barnes--getting to the Final Four because of their putrid offensive approach and how close to the edge they are when it comes to needing a loose whistle. Face a team who can make shots and they are in trouble. They make scoring look too hard or rely on 1 player too much.

 

[All Facts]

Love your content, look forward to every model post - thank you. Agree with Ralph; while the data favors teams like Houston, Tennessee (Bennett Virginia), we often see them prone to upsets in the tournament because great offense will typically always beat great defense. We swept TN because we shot 50% from 3.

 

[Aike]

Gonzaga is a clear example of resumes and computer metrics and models not lining up.

Currently 7th in this model.
Projected on Bracket Matrix to be a ...........9 seed.

That's a massive difference.

Are they the 7th best team in the nation? Probably not.
Do I think they are closer to that than a 9 seed? Yes. 100%.

No 1 seed wants to see Gonzaga in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

Exactly right. If we’re not careful, it will be a repeat of us against Wichita St. in 2017.

 

[Aike]

I respect your model always Aike. Just never see teams like UH/Tennessee winning a National Title or in case of Barnes--getting to the Final Four because of their putrid offensive approach and how close to the edge they are when it comes to needing a loose whistle. Face a team who can make shots and they are in trouble. They make scoring look too hard or rely on 1 player too much.

I don’t disagree. At the end of the day, my model is saying those teams probably win 3 games each. I think that’s pretty reasonable.

Definitely think they’re both prone to losing earlier though, especially if matched up against a high efficiency offense. Pope has shown what a great offense can do to UT’s defense for instance, even short-handed.

 

[Aike]

How has your models performed against past Final Four/National Championship results?

Since going live in 2019, here were the positions entering the tournament of the eventual champion:

2, 3, 10, 4, 1.

The 10 was Kansas in 2022, who actually had the 7th best overall odds because they were seeded higher than I would have projected.