Adjusted Scoring Margin Computer Model 3/12/2025

[_TrueBlue84_]

Aike inspired me to start playing around with a computer ranking system based on the Adjusted Scoring Margin for teams. It takes into account the expected offensive and defensive scoring adjusted for tempo and competition. It also weighs games in the last 30 days much heavier than the games earlier in the season. Here are the top 25 as of today:

Rank​	Team​	ASM​
1​	Duke​	29.03​
2​	Alabama​	24.53​
3​	Auburn​	24.32​
4​	Florida​	23.31​
5​	BYU​	22.81​
6​	Houston​	21.61​
7​	Gonzaga​	20.65​
8​	Kentucky​	20.12​
9​	Texas Tech​	19.98​
10​	Missouri​	19.26​
11​	Clemson​	17.92​
12​	Iowa St.​	17.86​
13​	Michigan St.​	17.82​
14​	North Carolina​	17.71​
15​	Wisconsin​	17.68​
16​	Louisville​	17.66​
17​	Arizona​	17.20​
18​	Maryland​	17.15​
19​	Illinois​	16.80​
20​	Georgia​	16.69​
21​	Xavier​	16.63​
22​	Purdue​	15.98​
23​	Tennessee​	15.88​
24​	St. John's​	15.64​
25​	Colorado St.​	14.98​

Things I noticed from the last model to this one:

Auburn is trending down and Alabama up.
Kentucky is on a healthy uptrend moving from 12 to 8.
Studying the ASM for the last 10 eventual champions, they average an ASM of 21 so the top 6 on this list fit that. We are just outside of that but again trending upward.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

I can’t figure out why Gonzaga remains so high on every model I look at. I watched them play last night and the eye test just doesn’t do it for me.

 

[Fitch44]

We would likely have to beat 2,3 and 4 to win the sec tourney. Sec is just stupid this year.

 

[_TrueBlue84_]

I can’t figure out why Gonzaga remains so high on every model I look at. I watched them play last night and the eye test just doesn’t do it for me.

For some reason Gonzaga always seems to be a "metric sweetheart". I am not sure myself. For reference, here is all of their numbers compared to us:

Rank​

Team​

O-E​

D-E​

AT-E​

ODM-E​

O-30​

D-30​

AT-30​

ODM-30​

ASM-E​

ASM-L​

ASM-T​

7​

Gonzaga​

122.60

97.20

71.00

25.40​

125.20​

94.80​

70.80​

30.40​

18.03​

21.52​

20.65​

8​

Kentucky​

125.00

100.40

71.70

24.60​

124.80​

95.30​

71.00​

29.50​

17.64​

20.95​

20.12​

O-E is offense per 100 possessions early season (not in the last 30 days)
D-E is opponent offense per 100 early season
T-E is possession per game early season
ODM-E is the Offense/Defense margin early season
Then you have the same for the last 30 days
ASM-E is the Adjusted Scoring Margin early season
ASM-L is the same for the last 30 days
ASM-T is the ASM weighted 25/75 for early and last 30

So Gonzaga has picked up scoring and defense in the last 30 days. Our defense has imporved by 5 points while our offense stayed relatively the same with 1 fewer possession per game.

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

We would likely have to beat 2,3 and 4 to win the sec tourney. Sec is just stupid this year.

I don't think we can play all of them, but I get your point

 

[precipitance]

I don't think we can play all of them, but I get your point

We can

 

[Catzman]

I don't want Duke to miss out on playing a team like Tennessee or Alabama. Especially Auburn again. Florida would be fun too. Id love it if Duke saw at least 2 of the top SEC teams. Even moreso if the SEC team knocked them out.

 

[Tampa_cat54]

I don't think we can play all of them, but I get your point

We can and probably would have to in order to win it.

Don't see Mizzou beating FL, so if we got by Bama, we'd almost certainly be playing FL.

And then we'd have to count on some combination of TN, Texas A&M, or Arkansas/Ole Miss to take out Auburn which I don't really see happening.

 

[Tampa_cat54]

I don't want Duke to miss out on playing a team like Tennessee or Alabama. Especially Auburn again. Florida would be fun too. Id love it if Duke saw at least 2 of the top SEC teams. Even moreso if the SEC team knocked them out.

Duke will almost certainly have an SEC team as their 2 seed, either TN or Bama, OR if we can sneak up to a 2 seed by beating Bama and maybe FL, then I guarantee that we would be their 2 seed. Zero doubt in my mind.

 

[runt#69]

Duke will almost certainly have an SEC team as their 2 seed, either TN or Bama, OR if we can sneak up to a 2 seed by beating Bama and maybe FL, then I guarantee that we would be their 2 seed. Zero doubt in my mind.

My thinking exactly. I'll take it a tad farther....

dUKe will most likely get Tennessee in the East instead of Alabama. Closer geographically, and I think the S.C. will want to pair Houston and Bama in the midwest for the storyline of a possible rematch from the earlier season game. They've had some monster games the last couple years with Houston, every game was good.

I'm thinking since Florida has only played us one time this year, even if we play them in the SECT, they'll pair us with 1 seed Florida (even if we beat them in the SECT - shades of 2011? anyone ?)opposite them as a the 3 seed in the same region (west) probably with a team like Texas Tech or maybe Michigan State as the 2. Probably Michigan State, since that would be the more difficult of the two matchups for Kentucky, I would say.

Not that they would ever make a bracket - or region - making it more difficult for little old Kentucky.... Of course not. They'd never do that......

 

[yabbadabbadoo]

North Carolina 14
🤣🤣🤣

 

[ganner918]

I don't think we can play all of them, but I get your point

Our path, if chalk holds, is Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Auburn

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

Our path, if chalk holds, is Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Auburn

I stand corrected (multiple times!). LOL thanks guys. That's a helluva gauntlet.