A Breakdown on the 2024-25 Illinois Fighting Illini

[KA4Prez]

General Comparison to Kentucky​

Both teams are offensively strong (Illinois ranks 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency; Kentucky ranks 10th).
Illinois struggles defensively (41st in adjusted defensive efficiency, declining to outside the top 100 over the past 10 games), whereas Kentucky's defense has recently been strong (top 25).
Both teams average approximately 71 possessions per game, with Illinois playing slightly faster.

Strengths​

Offense: Illinois is consistently elite, scoring 90+ points in 10 games this season.
Free-Throw Shooting: Among the best in the NCAA Tournament, hitting nearly 77% from the line.
NBA Talent: Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Reilly are high-potential players, capable of dominating games.
Three-Point Rate: Illinois takes 47% of their shots from three, one of the highest rates remaining in the tournament.

Weaknesses​

Defense: Consistently underwhelming, allowing opponents significant freedom to score.
Depth: Illinois has a limited rotation of 7 players and lacks depth, especially in the interior aside from Ivisic.
Three-Point Shooting: Despite their high volume, Illinois ranks poorly in accuracy, sitting at 297th in the nation—4th worst among tournament teams.

My Game Analysis:​

This match-up will resemble Kentucky's high-scoring, fast-paced games against teams like Louisville, Missouri, Florida, and Alabama. Expect a high-scoring, big shot-making game.

Critical Factors for Kentucky:

1. Three-Point Shooting Volume: Kentucky must attempt at least 25+ threes to remain competitive, especially with Jaxson Robinson unavailable. Koby Brea's performance will be crucial—he needs to shoot efficiently and often.
2. Free Throw Shooting: Even with fewer attempts than Illinois, Kentucky must hit 80% from the line to keep up, especially since Illinois excels in this area.
3. Adjusting for Injuries: The Wildcats may struggle to play their ideal style given current roster limitations, which adds an extra challenge with how Pope manages the rotations.

A likely heart-stopper, this game has all the makings of an exciting, high-energy contest. Kentucky's ability to maintain poise, handle the ball and make free throws may be the difference. Go Cats!

 

[HalHR2500]

Their top 10 PG draft pick is turnover prone, loose and high handle

 

[blue cincy]

Thank you for the write up. It will be a fun game, hopefully only for UK Fans. lol

We just need to have far fewer TO's in this game compared to yesterday. We need to keep from fouling as much as possible. We need to exercise the the Big Z game. GO BIG BLUE!

 

[SBKY]

So this will be one of those games where our opponent shoots 90% from 3?

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I wonder what made them drop from the 40s to outside the top100 in defense. That's. Ot just a small drop, that's alarmingly bad. Kentucky, you could argue, just needed more time to get as we did almost the exact opposite in metric movement.

Gotta say, that makes me feel pretty good. It seems this team, at least from a defensive standpoint, is in a tailspin.

 

[BBNinSC]

This is a game where Brea hits 6 threes.

 

[KA4Prez]

I wonder what made them drop from the 40s to outside the top100 in defense. That's. Ot just a small drop, that's alarmingly bad. Kentucky, you could argue, just needed more time to get as we did almost the exact opposite in metric movement.

Gotta say, that makes me feel pretty good. It seems this team, at least from a defensive standpoint, is in a tailspin.

Really, three games in that stretch

Allowed 110 to Duke
Allowed 88 to Maryland
Allowed 95 to Wisconsin

All of those teams are great offensively. Kentucky USED to be great offensively. It has slipped to just good over the past month.

 

[KA4Prez]

They lost those games by an average of 29 points. Atrocious defensive efficiency.

 

[will1976]

General Comparison to Kentucky​

Both teams are offensively strong (Illinois ranks 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency; Kentucky ranks 10th).
Illinois struggles defensively (41st in adjusted defensive efficiency, declining to outside the top 100 over the past 10 games), whereas Kentucky's defense has recently been strong (top 25).
Both teams average approximately 71 possessions per game, with Illinois playing slightly faster.

Strengths​

Offense: Illinois is consistently elite, scoring 90+ points in 10 games this season.
Free-Throw Shooting: Among the best in the NCAA Tournament, hitting nearly 77% from the line.
NBA Talent: Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Reilly are high-potential players, capable of dominating games.
Three-Point Rate: Illinois takes 47% of their shots from three, one of the highest rates remaining in the tournament.

Weaknesses​

Defense: Consistently underwhelming, allowing opponents significant freedom to score.
Depth: Illinois has a limited rotation of 7 players and lacks depth, especially in the interior aside from Ivisic.
Three-Point Shooting: Despite their high volume, Illinois ranks poorly in accuracy, sitting at 297th in the nation—4th worst among tournament teams.

My Game Analysis:​

This match-up will resemble Kentucky's high-scoring, fast-paced games against teams like Louisville, Missouri, Florida, and Alabama. Expect a high-scoring, big shot-making game.

Critical Factors for Kentucky:

1. Three-Point Shooting Volume: Kentucky must attempt at least 25+ threes to remain competitive, especially with Jaxson Robinson unavailable. Koby Brea's performance will be crucial—he needs to shoot efficiently and often.
2. Free Throw Shooting: Even with fewer attempts than Illinois, Kentucky must hit 80% from the line to keep up, especially since Illinois excels in this area.
3. Adjusting for Injuries: The Wildcats may struggle to play their ideal style given current roster limitations, which adds an extra challenge with how Pope manages the rotations.

A likely heart-stopper, this game has all the makings of an exciting, high-energy contest. Kentucky's ability to maintain poise, handle the ball and make free throws may be the difference. Go Cats!

Excellent breakdown my man!

 

[Kentucky fan 1989]

This is a game where Brea hits 6 threes.

If that happens, That's a 93% chance we win. Or should it be higher?

 

[ManitouDan]

My guy Butler gonna come up big ! Cats Win !

 

[AJG-15]

I would caution people to look at the past results of Illinois, especially the Duke game . They had injured players, sick players , and Ivisic had only few practices. Since them they got healthy , made defensive adjustments and play at their highest level. They are totally a different team.

In the press conference, they were confident but not exuberant. Pope made a statement , how our guys like to silence hostile crowds….. he tried to take it back…. The Illinois players just followed after … I wonder if they heard that comment.

I hope that we will be prepared . I am sure they are familiar with us via Coach O .

 

[KA4Prez]

I would caution people to look at the past results of Illinois, especially the Duke game . They had injured players, sick players , and Ivisic had only few practices. Since them they got healthy , made defensive adjustments and play at their highest level. They are totally a different team.

In the press conference, they were confident but not exuberant. Pope made a statement , how our guys like to silence hostile crowds….. he tried to take it back…. The Illinois players just followed after … I wonder if they heard that comment.

I hope that we will be prepared . I am sure they are familiar with us via Coach O .

I mean what does Coach O know about Pope or this UK team more so than any other coach?

 

[gbl97]

We can't have those wasted possessions like against Troy. Can't settle for bad shots. Be patient. First team to 95 wins and we can't be messing around with bad lineups and bad decision making.

 

[Wildcats1st]

We can't have those wasted possessions like against Troy. Can't settle for bad shots. Be patient. First team to 95 wins and we can't be messing around with bad lineups and bad decision making.

Definitely have to make our stops count tomorrow. Can’t play light either

 

[Wildcats1st]

I would caution people to look at the past results of Illinois, especially the Duke game . They had injured players, sick players , and Ivisic had only few practices. Since them they got healthy , made defensive adjustments and play at their highest level. They are totally a different team.

In the press conference, they were confident but not exuberant. Pope made a statement , how our guys like to silence hostile crowds….. he tried to take it back…. The Illinois players just followed after … I wonder if they heard that comment.

I hope that we will be prepared . I am sure they are familiar with us via Coach O .

You’re right dude. Illinois has had a season of injuries but it’s all coming together. Still though they have a propensity to play great one game and not so well the next. I don’t have much faith in bbn to go to Milwaukee for a second round game so it will be a road environment

 

[2Dope15]

I would caution people to look at the past results of Illinois, especially the Duke game . They had injured players, sick players , and Ivisic had only few practices. Since them they got healthy , made defensive adjustments and play at their highest level. They are totally a different team.

In the press conference, they were confident but not exuberant. Pope made a statement , how our guys like to silence hostile crowds….. he tried to take it back…. The Illinois players just followed after … I wonder if they heard that comment.

I hope that we will be prepared . I am sure they are familiar with us via Coach O .

Doubt Coach O will be familiar with a bunch of new players and totally different coaching philosophy.

 

[AJG-15]

I mean what does Coach O know about Pope or this UK team more so than any other coach?

We played a team called Arkansas before which scouted us…I am pretty sure they shared info . he still has a house in Lexington and follows the cats.. Jack had an interview with him and that was pretty obvious.

Big Z also has a brother at Illinois they shared info too.

 

[AJG-15]

You’re right dude. Illinois has had a season of injuries but it’s all coming together. Still though they have a propensity to play great one game and not so well the next. I don’t have much faith in bbn to go to Milwaukee for a second round game so it will be a road environment

I still think we should win if we treat the game correctly.

 

[AJG-15]

General Comparison to Kentucky​

Both teams are offensively strong (Illinois ranks 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency; Kentucky ranks 10th).
Illinois struggles defensively (41st in adjusted defensive efficiency, declining to outside the top 100 over the past 10 games), whereas Kentucky's defense has recently been strong (top 25).
Both teams average approximately 71 possessions per game, with Illinois playing slightly faster.

Strengths​

Offense: Illinois is consistently elite, scoring 90+ points in 10 games this season.
Free-Throw Shooting: Among the best in the NCAA Tournament, hitting nearly 77% from the line.
NBA Talent: Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Reilly are high-potential players, capable of dominating games.
Three-Point Rate: Illinois takes 47% of their shots from three, one of the highest rates remaining in the tournament.

Weaknesses​

Defense: Consistently underwhelming, allowing opponents significant freedom to score.
Depth: Illinois has a limited rotation of 7 players and lacks depth, especially in the interior aside from Ivisic.
Three-Point Shooting: Despite their high volume, Illinois ranks poorly in accuracy, sitting at 297th in the nation—4th worst among tournament teams.

My Game Analysis:​

This match-up will resemble Kentucky's high-scoring, fast-paced games against teams like Louisville, Missouri, Florida, and Alabama. Expect a high-scoring, big shot-making game.

Critical Factors for Kentucky:

1. Three-Point Shooting Volume: Kentucky must attempt at least 25+ threes to remain competitive, especially with Jaxson Robinson unavailable. Koby Brea's performance will be crucial—he needs to shoot efficiently and often.
2. Free Throw Shooting: Even with fewer attempts than Illinois, Kentucky must hit 80% from the line to keep up, especially since Illinois excels in this area.
3. Adjusting for Injuries: The Wildcats may struggle to play their ideal style given current roster limitations, which adds an extra challenge with how Pope manages the rotations.

A likely heart-stopper, this game has all the makings of an exciting, high-energy contest. Kentucky's ability to maintain poise, handle the ball and make free throws may be the difference. Go Cats!

Thank you for the good analysis. Let’s go Cats!

 

[mbc82584]

General Comparison to Kentucky​

Both teams are offensively strong (Illinois ranks 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency; Kentucky ranks 10th).
Illinois struggles defensively (41st in adjusted defensive efficiency, declining to outside the top 100 over the past 10 games), whereas Kentucky's defense has recently been strong (top 25).
Both teams average approximately 71 possessions per game, with Illinois playing slightly faster.

Strengths​

Offense: Illinois is consistently elite, scoring 90+ points in 10 games this season.
Free-Throw Shooting: Among the best in the NCAA Tournament, hitting nearly 77% from the line.
NBA Talent: Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Reilly are high-potential players, capable of dominating games.
Three-Point Rate: Illinois takes 47% of their shots from three, one of the highest rates remaining in the tournament.

Weaknesses​

Defense: Consistently underwhelming, allowing opponents significant freedom to score.
Depth: Illinois has a limited rotation of 7 players and lacks depth, especially in the interior aside from Ivisic.
Three-Point Shooting: Despite their high volume, Illinois ranks poorly in accuracy, sitting at 297th in the nation—4th worst among tournament teams.

My Game Analysis:​

This match-up will resemble Kentucky's high-scoring, fast-paced games against teams like Louisville, Missouri, Florida, and Alabama. Expect a high-scoring, big shot-making game.

Critical Factors for Kentucky:

1. Three-Point Shooting Volume: Kentucky must attempt at least 25+ threes to remain competitive, especially with Jaxson Robinson unavailable. Koby Brea's performance will be crucial—he needs to shoot efficiently and often.
2. Free Throw Shooting: Even with fewer attempts than Illinois, Kentucky must hit 80% from the line to keep up, especially since Illinois excels in this area.
3. Adjusting for Injuries: The Wildcats may struggle to play their ideal style given current roster limitations, which adds an extra challenge with how Pope manages the rotations.

A likely heart-stopper, this game has all the makings of an exciting, high-energy contest. Kentucky's ability to maintain poise, handle the ball and make free throws may be the difference. Go Cats!

Easy there ChatGPT, you failed to prompt the AI that Illinois is a bunch of bitches and they don’t beat anyone good.

Great job posting something you didn’t write though.

 

[Wildskatfan]

I wonder what made them drop from the 40s to outside the top100 in defense. That's. Ot just a small drop, that's alarmingly bad. Kentucky, you could argue, just needed more time to get as we did almost the exact opposite in metric movement.

Gotta say, that makes me feel pretty good. It seems this team, at least from a defensive standpoint, is in a tailspin.

Bunch of sick and injured players. Unfortunately they are healthy now and hitting on all cylinders again.

 

[BleedBlue13]

One thing that stands out to me if they really only go 7 deep.. We have had quite a few games this year where Oweh drives like a madman and goes to the line 10+ times. He’s been our best and most healthy scoring threat for a while so if he can get downhill all game and get a few of those in foul trouble could be a huge advantage. Everyone knows how we play on offense but against a team like Illinois that hardly plays any defense maybe we drive more and shoot less 3’s for this one. Either get them in foul trouble or score at will. I think we are just all excited to be in a meaningful game this time of year again!

 

[Fox2monk]

General Comparison to Kentucky​

Both teams are offensively strong (Illinois ranks 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency; Kentucky ranks 10th).
Illinois struggles defensively (41st in adjusted defensive efficiency, declining to outside the top 100 over the past 10 games), whereas Kentucky's defense has recently been strong (top 25).
Both teams average approximately 71 possessions per game, with Illinois playing slightly faster.

Strengths​

Offense: Illinois is consistently elite, scoring 90+ points in 10 games this season.
Free-Throw Shooting: Among the best in the NCAA Tournament, hitting nearly 77% from the line.
NBA Talent: Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Reilly are high-potential players, capable of dominating games.
Three-Point Rate: Illinois takes 47% of their shots from three, one of the highest rates remaining in the tournament.

Weaknesses​

Defense: Consistently underwhelming, allowing opponents significant freedom to score.
Depth: Illinois has a limited rotation of 7 players and lacks depth, especially in the interior aside from Ivisic.
Three-Point Shooting: Despite their high volume, Illinois ranks poorly in accuracy, sitting at 297th in the nation—4th worst among tournament teams.

My Game Analysis:​

This match-up will resemble Kentucky's high-scoring, fast-paced games against teams like Louisville, Missouri, Florida, and Alabama. Expect a high-scoring, big shot-making game.

Critical Factors for Kentucky:

1. Three-Point Shooting Volume: Kentucky must attempt at least 25+ threes to remain competitive, especially with Jaxson Robinson unavailable. Koby Brea's performance will be crucial—he needs to shoot efficiently and often.
2. Free Throw Shooting: Even with fewer attempts than Illinois, Kentucky must hit 80% from the line to keep up, especially since Illinois excels in this area.
3. Adjusting for Injuries: The Wildcats may struggle to play their ideal style given current roster limitations, which adds an extra challenge with how Pope manages the rotations.

A likely heart-stopper, this game has all the makings of an exciting, high-energy contest. Kentucky's ability to maintain poise, handle the ball and make free throws may be the difference. Go Cats!

Seems like we should attack Z and try to get him in foul trouble. Maybe focus on Riley or Jakuionous and make someone else beat us.

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

General Comparison to Kentucky​

Both teams are offensively strong (Illinois ranks 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency; Kentucky ranks 10th).
Illinois struggles defensively (41st in adjusted defensive efficiency, declining to outside the top 100 over the past 10 games), whereas Kentucky's defense has recently been strong (top 25).
Both teams average approximately 71 possessions per game, with Illinois playing slightly faster.

Strengths​

Offense: Illinois is consistently elite, scoring 90+ points in 10 games this season.
Free-Throw Shooting: Among the best in the NCAA Tournament, hitting nearly 77% from the line.
NBA Talent: Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Reilly are high-potential players, capable of dominating games.
Three-Point Rate: Illinois takes 47% of their shots from three, one of the highest rates remaining in the tournament.

Weaknesses​

Defense: Consistently underwhelming, allowing opponents significant freedom to score.
Depth: Illinois has a limited rotation of 7 players and lacks depth, especially in the interior aside from Ivisic.
Three-Point Shooting: Despite their high volume, Illinois ranks poorly in accuracy, sitting at 297th in the nation—4th worst among tournament teams.

My Game Analysis:​

This match-up will resemble Kentucky's high-scoring, fast-paced games against teams like Louisville, Missouri, Florida, and Alabama. Expect a high-scoring, big shot-making game.

Critical Factors for Kentucky:

1. Three-Point Shooting Volume: Kentucky must attempt at least 25+ threes to remain competitive, especially with Jaxson Robinson unavailable. Koby Brea's performance will be crucial—he needs to shoot efficiently and often.
2. Free Throw Shooting: Even with fewer attempts than Illinois, Kentucky must hit 80% from the line to keep up, especially since Illinois excels in this area.
3. Adjusting for Injuries: The Wildcats may struggle to play their ideal style given current roster limitations, which adds an extra challenge with how Pope manages the rotations.

A likely heart-stopper, this game has all the makings of an exciting, high-energy contest. Kentucky's ability to maintain poise, handle the ball and make free throws may be the difference. Go Cats!

Thanks for the write-up. The only thing I question is calling their offense "consistently elite". They have been anything but consistently elite. Over the past couple months they have been wildly inconsistent and usually not close to elite.

They are a poor 3pt shooting team that chooses to shoot mainly from the 3. It makes little sense. I dont think we need our A game to win this one but we probably need to be playing at a B+ level. If we do that I think the Cats win by 7+.

If we play a C game we're gonna be shorthanded in a rock fight. I really don't need an ulcer.