9-9 is realistic. 8-10 is not unrealistic. Both SEC records still get us in the Dance.
- Thread starter Son_Of_Saul
- Start date
Not directed at anyone in particular, just a lot of people on here after a good game usually talking like we won’t lose another game, and then after a loss talk like we will miss the tourny.Who's your first statement directed to? Be specific. If you're referring to me, we can talk about that. I'll have to consult my other personalities if we do though in order to get their opinions.
Secondly, why is 11-7 the likely outcome? You have us holding serve at home? Against Bama, Auburn, TN, and A&M? Not likely.
Or do you have us winning 3 or 4 on the road?
Break down your assessment game by game. I'm genuinely curious.
I think we will lose 1-2 at home, likely to one of those other top 4 teams. But I think we go about .500 on the road. If forced to pick records then 7-2 at home, 4-5 on road.
We will win at least one game as underdog, and lose at least one as favorite (maybe UGA was the one, or 1 of 2).
I think we win 2 of those 4 home games. Most likely A&M and Bama. Bama plays a pace like us and they don’t make it a sloggin physical game. We can thrive in that much like the Florida game.Who's your first statement directed to? Be specific. If you're referring to me, we can talk about that. I'll have to consult my other personalities if we do though in order to get their opinions.
Secondly, why is 11-7 the likely outcome? You have us holding serve at home? Against Bama, Auburn, TN, and A&M? Not likely.
Or do you have us winning 3 or 4 on the road?
Break down your assessment game by game. I'm genuinely curious.
UT got smoked by 30 at Florida, and some of you think they are unbeatable, even in Rupp.
TAMU was saved by a 26% 3pt shooter going 9-11 from 3 to barely squeek out a win last night at Oklahoma.
The first 8 min even USC (worst team in the conference) looked like they could play with Bama last night.
TAMU was saved by a 26% 3pt shooter going 9-11 from 3 to barely squeek out a win last night at Oklahoma.
The first 8 min even USC (worst team in the conference) looked like they could play with Bama last night.
If you take off the glasses you'll see we are middle of the pack SEC team just as predicted- the win against Florida and moving to 6th in the rankings will be the high point of the season-
We just can't lose to the non tournament sec teams and beat the A&M of the world at home.
We just can't lose to the non tournament sec teams and beat the A&M of the world at home.
If you take off the doom&gloom glasses, you will see that we lost a ROAD game, to a 13-2 team #29 in NET (so is VERY MUCH a "tournament team"), with A LOT of beyond-questionable calls.
Across all conferences, Home teams win about 63% of conference games. But the SEC is different this year, with much more parity, so I expect that to be closer to 70% this year for the SEC. Meanwhile A&M needed 34 points from a guy whose shooting %'s are very similar to Robinson's to barely (by 2) win at Oklahoma. Do you think Oklahoma is better than UK?
Might TAMU win in Rupp? Sure, maybe. I'd give them a 30% chance to. And we may also win at Ole Miss, Oklahoma, and/or Miss St.
UK is in that 1st tier of (5) SEC teams, even if we are the 5th.
TAMU is in the 2nd tier (about 4-5 teams).
UGA is in the 3rd tier (4-5 teams)
Then that last tier, the definite non-tournament teams right now is just LSU and USC.
Following the NET rankings, it has our SEC games ranked in difficulty in the following order:
If you assume being the Home team is worth 20 spots, then the 18 games would fall into the following order (toughest to easiest):
at UT, at Alabama, at Miss ST, Auburn, at Ole Miss, UT, Florida, Alabama, at UGA, TAMU, at Missouri, at Vandy, at Texas, at Okl, Vandy, Ark, LSU, USC
Breaking that down to a 9-9 record, then you would assume lose the first 9, win the last 9.
We've actually already played 2 of our toughest 9 games, winning the 7th & losing the 9th.
Thus, we are already 1 game ahead of the expected outcome for a 9-9 team.
| Away | Home |
| at UT | Auburn |
| at Alabama | UT |
| at Miss St | Florida |
| at Ole Miss | Alabama |
| at UGA | TAMU |
| at Missouri | Vandy |
| at Vandy | Ark |
| at Texas | LSU |
| at Oklahoma | USC |
If you assume being the Home team is worth 20 spots, then the 18 games would fall into the following order (toughest to easiest):
at UT, at Alabama, at Miss ST, Auburn, at Ole Miss, UT, Florida, Alabama, at UGA, TAMU, at Missouri, at Vandy, at Texas, at Okl, Vandy, Ark, LSU, USC
Breaking that down to a 9-9 record, then you would assume lose the first 9, win the last 9.
We've actually already played 2 of our toughest 9 games, winning the 7th & losing the 9th.
Thus, we are already 1 game ahead of the expected outcome for a 9-9 team.
