This is a predictable outcome given the absence of boundaries with which NIL was launched. It really is only a matter of time before some of these CFB NIL collectives have $100,000,000/year budgets.
As I understand it, $25M/year is the current target for the Tennessee collective right now..
The most well-funded collectives will, eventually, be, “collectively, “ buying 200+ of the best 250 graduating high school players every year plus most of the top transfers. I don’t expect that outcome to take more than a couple more years.
What A&M did this year is the blueprint for every other alumni group with comparable financial means and fanaticism about football. That's not a lot of schools, but..we're just getting started. There may only be 9 or 10 other teams in the whole country that have alumni and/or businesses with both the financial wherewithal and the will to compete at the A&M NIL level.
Someone made the counterpoint months ago that the New York Yankees, the most well-funded MLB team, had not played in a World Series in something like 13 years. BIG DIFFERENCES between MLB and CFB NIL:
1) In MLB, a team can get stuck with long-term contracts for underperforming players (see ARod by year 5) that end up being financially-debilitating whereas in the CFB/NIL world, even if you make a mistake, you‘re only stuck with it, at most, for 5 years and, more likely, for one. The transfer portal will allows any of those players who were misevaluated during the NIL recruitment process (clearly that is what is happening) to transfer to a school/level where he can play.
2) In fact, with CFB/NIL + the Transfer Portal - Any long-term contracts, each year, if properly funded, schools can, in effect, shop from among THE BEST PLAYERS AT EVERY POSITION OF NEED EACH YEAR from high schools as well as from any other college team in the country as I have yet to see any accusations of improper contact come to fruition.
3) By definition, each CFB roster will, as it always has, completely turnover every 5 years and, in most years, historically, 30+% (a guess based upon upper classmen attrition and adding 25 players from high school each year) of the scholarship players will be first year players.
4)With the portal serving as the CFB version of free agency, but easier due to no contract restrictions, the percentage of 1st year players will, predictably, rise as the richest collectives, logically, recruit veteran, proven players to fill their most urgent needs each year rather than take a flyer on a high school option who may EVENTUALLY reach that level of play.
5) IIRC, currently, teams can take up to 7 transfers each year. Teams have already started encouraging their low contributing players to enter the portal to make room. The rich, smart teams will leverage the portal for all 7 of those top-level proven transfers every year…and, let’s hope 7 does not become 10 or 15...
6) It's not as though there are 25 teams that compete for a national championship every year now, but NIL is going to grow the gap between the haves and the have nots. And, of course, some of those historical haves will be replaced by teams that HAVE deeper NIL pockets.
7) It's hard to imagine conference affiliations surviving this seismic shift in the CFB competitive landscape. Current conferences won't make a lot of sense when the full effect of the NIL disparities result in just a handful of super teams scattered across the country.
7) For me, the outcomes of interest will be 1) which teams' NIL collectives will rise to the top and 2) what will the tier of teams just below the top NIL teams look like and 3) how many teams will be in that tier? and, finally, 4) when the NIL dust settles, where will Kentucky land in the NIL arms race pecking order?
At this point in time, landing in the second tier would be just fine with me. If that were the case, games at Kroger Field would still be great fun.
Sorry for the long rant. I just still get the sense that most people are underestimating the impact of NIL and the unintended consequences thereof.
