5 "we better win" games. 2 midmajors, FCS, Vandy, South Carolina. I don't care if South Carolina has won two in a row against us, they were 5 and 7 last year, lost Rattler, and the game is in Lexington.
3 "should win" games. Auburn at home, U6 at home, Florida in Gainesville. Two of these three teams had losing records last year, and the other, well, it's just Louisville.
4 probable losses, but it's not like they're four unbeatable teams (Georgia might be). I'd bet anything that a crap team upsets Tennessee, Ole Miss and/or maybe even Texas, so why can't we, if we have a decent team, get an upset?
Basically, anything less than 7 and 5 sucks.