Each player has a maximum (reasonable) potential they can reach next year, and likewise a minimum level of success they should achieve. Obviously injuries can be a factor but are nearly impossible to predict, and opportunity is also a factor. And so how close a player comes to his floor/ceiling depends both on his own improvement (lack of) as well as the play of his teammates he is competing for PT with.
Oscar T. - What more can the NPOY do (for an encore)? Despite his amazing season, Oscar was mostly limited to around the basket, although he did seem proficient at those 15'-16' elbow jumpers if open. Oscar's take-away from NBA teams to extend his range, Cal's interpretation for him to be a threat away from the basket. To keep his star happy, I expect we see Oscar in more pick & roll opportunities, where he will be allowed to shoot some jumpers (16'-21') or put the ball on the floor. Don't expect Oscar to become KAT (NBA version) hitting lots of 3's, but don't be shocked if he makes a few. His biggest asset is his offensive rebounding, so while he may spend a little more time outside, don't expect him to park himself out there taking himself out of so many rebounding chances.
Ceiling: 32mpg, 18ppg, 15rpg, 2 blk, 0.4 3's at 35%
Floor: 30mpg, 15ppg, 12rpg, 1 blk, 0.1 3's at 20%
Toppin - He shared the PF spot last year, and that is certainly a possibility next year too, but I imagine he wants to be "the man" at the PF. The athleticism is there. And he is a good defender. Can he make jumpers (consistently), can he put it on the floor and be more than a high-flyer? Don't expect night&day improvement, but improvement is reasonable to expect. But his impact (& PT) may depend on the improvement of another player (Collins).
Ceiling: 28mpg, 13ppg, 7rpg, 1 blk, 0.5 3's at 37%
Floor: 20mpg, 8ppg, 4rpg, 0.5 blk, 0.2 3's at 25%
Ware - Ware is what he is, a hard working lunch-pail blue-collar backup. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have a role or contribute. He does. He not only backs up Oscar, but he also sometimes is that needed physical presence. Although to some degree like Toppin, his role could be slightly be deminished if Collins 'shows-out'.
Ceiling: 10mpg, 3ppg, 3rpg, 0.5 blk, FT's at 60%
Floor: 5mpg, 1.5ppg, 1.5rpg, FT's at 40%
Collins - Coming in as a 5* projected 1st round pick may have set expectations too high (in some eyes) for Collins, but he clearly was not physically ready (strong enough) to make an impact in college (Yet), so obviously not ready to do that at the next level (yet). There is debate as to whether or not he showed much in skill last year, but what is not in debate is that he didn't have a lot of opportunities in 6mpg, but did see a few flashes of his athleticism. But if he is stronger next year (maybe a BIG "IF"), then maybe we won't recognize his game impact. Can he overtake Toppin at the PF? Can he provide quality minutes as Oscar's main backup? Can he live up to the 5* ranking?
Ceiling: 26mpg, 12ppg, 9rpg, 3 blk, 0.5 3's at 35%
Floor: 12mpg, 5ppg, 3rpg, 1 blk, 0.1 3's at 20%
Livingston - FR are much more difficult to predict since we've not seen them play at the college level yet (see Collins, Askew, Boston, SGA, Ulis). Livingston looks to have a college ready body. We've all seen the 3pt drill (& come up w/ our own impressions). Will he be a stretch 4? Will he start at the 3? Could he play some 2G? Can he make guarded 3's? Is he over hyped (Boston)? Or is he ready (MKG, T.Jones)? But with only 10 guys, he will have to contribute some. He may have the widest gap from ceiling to floor on the team. And IMO, he may be the player who most determines how good we are.
Ceiling: 26mpg, 13ppg, 7rpg, 1 blk, 0.7 3's at 36%
Floor: 10mpg, 3ppg, 2rpg, 0.2 3's at 25%
Reeves - Adding such a scorer is a new concept, but one we should get used to, now for our 2nd year in a row we have added a mid-major's #1 option. And while Reeves does not have the steady 4 year track record Grady had, he did have a very good season last year making 40% of his 3's as part of his 20ppg. On film he looks like he can create his own shot, go to the rim, and did so even vs high level opponents (i.e. Wisc). He also has good length. Can that translate consistently at the High D-1 level, and will he work equally hard on both ends of the floor?
Ceiling: 26mpg, 13ppg, 3rpg, 2.0 3's at 40%
Floor: 14mpg, 7ppg, 2rpg, 1.0 3's at 33%
Fredrick - Very good 3pt shooter (check). Proven High D-1 (check). Track record of injuries (sadly, check). Fredrick is the "newcomer" we probably would most know what to expect from, except for that one thing (can he stay healthy?). Are his injuries a sign of being soft or injury prone, or are they just freak unrelated injuries? Is his defense good enough for Cal to want to keep him on the floor? I am not going to assume any major injuries here.
Ceiling: 26mpg, 12ppg, 2.5 3's at 48%
Floor: 16mpg, 7ppg, 1.5 3's at 40%
Theiro - This kid was a late addition, and relative unknown. But he has good size. Is he a late bloomer, or simply a practice player? Needless to say he came here knowing he would be a 3-4 year player, and so willing to accept that role.
Ceiling: 5mpg, 2ppg
Floor: 1mpg
Wallace - Wallace stock rose the past few months, and all the signs are is that he has a lot to offer. Defensive minded. Will drive and finish. Can shoot. "A dog" mentality. Comparisons have been made to Tyty (healthy version), to Maxey, and others.
Ceiling: 30mpg, 14ppg, 3rpg, 5apg, 1.2 3's at 40%
Floor: 24mpg, 9ppg, 2rpg, 3apg, 0.5 3's at 30%
Wheeler - I'm not sure there has been a more highly both criticized yet applauded Cat. Some want him to be limited to backup role, others think he could be 1st Team all-SEC & honorable mention AA. Some think he found his shot (making 40% of his 3's the last 2 months of the season) and others look at his 3pt-form and compare him to a middle school girl. But last year, when we had a healthy team and his teammates were playing well, Wheeler usually also looked really good. And when others struggled (for whatever reason), so did Wheeler. So I think the better, the more contribution we get from the above 8 guys (I said 8, because we know what the top guy will do), the better we will see Wheeler play. But we do need him to play and contribute.
Ceiling: 32mpg, 12ppg, 8apg, 0.8 3's at 35%
Floor: 26mpg, 9ppg, 6apg, 0.4 3's at 25%
Oscar T. - What more can the NPOY do (for an encore)? Despite his amazing season, Oscar was mostly limited to around the basket, although he did seem proficient at those 15'-16' elbow jumpers if open. Oscar's take-away from NBA teams to extend his range, Cal's interpretation for him to be a threat away from the basket. To keep his star happy, I expect we see Oscar in more pick & roll opportunities, where he will be allowed to shoot some jumpers (16'-21') or put the ball on the floor. Don't expect Oscar to become KAT (NBA version) hitting lots of 3's, but don't be shocked if he makes a few. His biggest asset is his offensive rebounding, so while he may spend a little more time outside, don't expect him to park himself out there taking himself out of so many rebounding chances.
Ceiling: 32mpg, 18ppg, 15rpg, 2 blk, 0.4 3's at 35%
Floor: 30mpg, 15ppg, 12rpg, 1 blk, 0.1 3's at 20%
Toppin - He shared the PF spot last year, and that is certainly a possibility next year too, but I imagine he wants to be "the man" at the PF. The athleticism is there. And he is a good defender. Can he make jumpers (consistently), can he put it on the floor and be more than a high-flyer? Don't expect night&day improvement, but improvement is reasonable to expect. But his impact (& PT) may depend on the improvement of another player (Collins).
Ceiling: 28mpg, 13ppg, 7rpg, 1 blk, 0.5 3's at 37%
Floor: 20mpg, 8ppg, 4rpg, 0.5 blk, 0.2 3's at 25%
Ware - Ware is what he is, a hard working lunch-pail blue-collar backup. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have a role or contribute. He does. He not only backs up Oscar, but he also sometimes is that needed physical presence. Although to some degree like Toppin, his role could be slightly be deminished if Collins 'shows-out'.
Ceiling: 10mpg, 3ppg, 3rpg, 0.5 blk, FT's at 60%
Floor: 5mpg, 1.5ppg, 1.5rpg, FT's at 40%
Collins - Coming in as a 5* projected 1st round pick may have set expectations too high (in some eyes) for Collins, but he clearly was not physically ready (strong enough) to make an impact in college (Yet), so obviously not ready to do that at the next level (yet). There is debate as to whether or not he showed much in skill last year, but what is not in debate is that he didn't have a lot of opportunities in 6mpg, but did see a few flashes of his athleticism. But if he is stronger next year (maybe a BIG "IF"), then maybe we won't recognize his game impact. Can he overtake Toppin at the PF? Can he provide quality minutes as Oscar's main backup? Can he live up to the 5* ranking?
Ceiling: 26mpg, 12ppg, 9rpg, 3 blk, 0.5 3's at 35%
Floor: 12mpg, 5ppg, 3rpg, 1 blk, 0.1 3's at 20%
Livingston - FR are much more difficult to predict since we've not seen them play at the college level yet (see Collins, Askew, Boston, SGA, Ulis). Livingston looks to have a college ready body. We've all seen the 3pt drill (& come up w/ our own impressions). Will he be a stretch 4? Will he start at the 3? Could he play some 2G? Can he make guarded 3's? Is he over hyped (Boston)? Or is he ready (MKG, T.Jones)? But with only 10 guys, he will have to contribute some. He may have the widest gap from ceiling to floor on the team. And IMO, he may be the player who most determines how good we are.
Ceiling: 26mpg, 13ppg, 7rpg, 1 blk, 0.7 3's at 36%
Floor: 10mpg, 3ppg, 2rpg, 0.2 3's at 25%
Reeves - Adding such a scorer is a new concept, but one we should get used to, now for our 2nd year in a row we have added a mid-major's #1 option. And while Reeves does not have the steady 4 year track record Grady had, he did have a very good season last year making 40% of his 3's as part of his 20ppg. On film he looks like he can create his own shot, go to the rim, and did so even vs high level opponents (i.e. Wisc). He also has good length. Can that translate consistently at the High D-1 level, and will he work equally hard on both ends of the floor?
Ceiling: 26mpg, 13ppg, 3rpg, 2.0 3's at 40%
Floor: 14mpg, 7ppg, 2rpg, 1.0 3's at 33%
Fredrick - Very good 3pt shooter (check). Proven High D-1 (check). Track record of injuries (sadly, check). Fredrick is the "newcomer" we probably would most know what to expect from, except for that one thing (can he stay healthy?). Are his injuries a sign of being soft or injury prone, or are they just freak unrelated injuries? Is his defense good enough for Cal to want to keep him on the floor? I am not going to assume any major injuries here.
Ceiling: 26mpg, 12ppg, 2.5 3's at 48%
Floor: 16mpg, 7ppg, 1.5 3's at 40%
Theiro - This kid was a late addition, and relative unknown. But he has good size. Is he a late bloomer, or simply a practice player? Needless to say he came here knowing he would be a 3-4 year player, and so willing to accept that role.
Ceiling: 5mpg, 2ppg
Floor: 1mpg
Wallace - Wallace stock rose the past few months, and all the signs are is that he has a lot to offer. Defensive minded. Will drive and finish. Can shoot. "A dog" mentality. Comparisons have been made to Tyty (healthy version), to Maxey, and others.
Ceiling: 30mpg, 14ppg, 3rpg, 5apg, 1.2 3's at 40%
Floor: 24mpg, 9ppg, 2rpg, 3apg, 0.5 3's at 30%
Wheeler - I'm not sure there has been a more highly both criticized yet applauded Cat. Some want him to be limited to backup role, others think he could be 1st Team all-SEC & honorable mention AA. Some think he found his shot (making 40% of his 3's the last 2 months of the season) and others look at his 3pt-form and compare him to a middle school girl. But last year, when we had a healthy team and his teammates were playing well, Wheeler usually also looked really good. And when others struggled (for whatever reason), so did Wheeler. So I think the better, the more contribution we get from the above 8 guys (I said 8, because we know what the top guy will do), the better we will see Wheeler play. But we do need him to play and contribute.
Ceiling: 32mpg, 12ppg, 8apg, 0.8 3's at 35%
Floor: 26mpg, 9ppg, 6apg, 0.4 3's at 25%
