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2022 MLB Draft

Derek Terry

Senior
Staff
Aug 22, 2013
5,171
6,806
113
Lexington, Ky.
The 2022 MLB Draft is now just two days away. The first two rounds will be on Sunday night, rounds 3-10 on Monday and the last 10 rounds on Tuesday.

I've asked around to try to get the latest standing on how UK's commits/players stand, but as you can imagine it's a lot of gossip and hearsay. But here's my best estimation of where things stand.

LOCKS
RHP Tyler Guilfoil
SS Ryan Ritter

MOST LIKELY GONE
3B Chase Estep
SP Caden Dana

50/50
SP Zack Lee
SP Tyler Bosma
SP Cole Stupp
OF Tommy Specht
DH Haydn McGeary
RHP Logan Martin
OF Kendall Ewell

This group obviously has the most names listed. Do I think Kentucky will lose every player on this list? I don't. But I also couldn't confidently tell you who will make it to campus and who won't. My take on the 50/50 guys is they would prefer to sign if the money is right, which isn't a shocking revelation. I always approach it as anyone who is draft-eligible would ultimately prefer to play baseball professionally.

Specht remains interesting to me for reasons I listed in other threads, but it sounds like he has at least one person in his camp who would like to see him in college. That's also the case for Caden Dana, but I think it's more of a given that he'll have his asking price met compared to Specht. If Specht gets a 7-figure offer then he will obviously take it. All it takes is one team to offer, so that's why I'm not super optimistic about him getting to school. But that would be a pretty major commitment to a guy that isn't necessarily a can't miss prospect.

*Any draft-eligible player not listed above means that I don't necessarily expect them to be selected. However, guys like Jake Plastiak, Alonzo Rubalcaba, etc. are probably signing if they get picked or they might decide to sign a non-drafted free agent deal. I don't really know on those guys but in some ways, I'd list them as not quite as important as some other decisions, though that point could be argued I suppose.
 
If they were to lose Bosma, Dana and Martin then starting pitching would become a really big concern.
 
Don't know how this effects UK but NLI changes things, very little pay in minors especially low minors. I'd think anybody taken below Round 10 would give strong consideration not to sign.
 
Kumar Rocker went third to the Rangers. That’s a big shocker. LSU kid Berry also went top 10.
 
Looks like Vandy and LSU both have lost committed kids in the first round.
 
Reds take Cam Collier, 17 year old kid out of junior college. Left high school a year early. Pains me to say it but I would have taken Drew Gilbert from UT. Kid is really good.
 
Both of them had guys this week decide not to go to the draft. Both were projected high draft picks.
Unless you’re guaranteed millions, I would go to Vandy myself. You’ll get top notch coaching, play in the SEC, first class facilities and you can get a free degree from Vandy. Would be hard to pass up in my opinion.
 
Collier played at Cotuit this Summer with Ritter and Bosma. Kid is a stud. He was supposed to be a junior in high school this past season
 
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It seems like almost every pitcher drafted has had Tommy John surgery. It hasn’t been that long ago that if you had Tommy John or a labrum tear that you were not going to be the same.
 
No real surprises after the first night. Ryan Ritter and Caden Dana were both possibilities with the first 80 picks, but both are still on the board to start today. I believe it starts back at 2 p.m. ET this afternoon. Ritter, Dana, Specht, Estep, Guilfoil are all guys I'd say have a good shot at going today.
 
The Collier kid the Reds drafted is a Louisville commit. I hate it for them. 😁
And from the looks of things, I doubt he has any intentions of playing for Louisville. Will be very surprised if that happens. Sounds like he reclassified and went JUCO early to boost his draft stock. UofL, was his backup plan. Lets just hope the Reds don't keep him in the Minors for 7 years before moving him up. hopefully he's ready by the time he turns 20-21. Seems like he has elite hitting mechanics, hopefully that can be harnessed.
 
No real surprises after the first night. Ryan Ritter and Caden Dana were both possibilities with the first 80 picks, but both are still on the board to start today. I believe it starts back at 2 p.m. ET this afternoon. Ritter, Dana, Specht, Estep, Guilfoil are all guys I'd say have a good shot at going today.

Looks like there were 9 short stops picked yesterday out of college. Hard to believe that there are 9 short stops in college baseball that project better than Ryan Ritter. That tendency to get that big swing really hurting him. Otherwise, you have to think that he'd be a day 1 guy with the fact that he has the ability to play 2nd, 3rd, or short.
 
And from the looks of things, I doubt he has any intentions of playing for Louisville. Will be very surprised if that happens. Sounds like he reclassified and went JUCO early to boost his draft stock. UofL, was his backup plan. Lets just hope the Reds don't keep him in the Minors for 7 years before moving him up. hopefully he's ready by the time he turns 20-21. Seems like he has elite hitting mechanics, hopefully that can be harnessed.

There is no way that he'd reclassify and go JUCO just to then go to Louisville. Reds would have to muck it up real bad with his signing bonus for him to not sign. He'll be playing rookie ball soon enough.

The interesting part for him will be where he lands. Does he stick at 3rd or move to the outfield?
 
Cam Collier isn't going to Louisville. He actually held out for the Reds because the Reds are going to pay him over slot. It was a very good pick for us,and some scouts think he'll be ready in 3 years.
 
And from the looks of things, I doubt he has any intentions of playing for Louisville. Will be very surprised if that happens. Sounds like he reclassified and went JUCO early to boost his draft stock. UofL, was his backup plan. Lets just hope the Reds don't keep him in the Minors for 7 years before moving him up. hopefully he's ready by the time he turns 20-21. Seems like he has elite hitting mechanics, hopefully that can be harnessed.
Really like this guy, hope the Reds don't screw him up too bad.

By every measurable possible, by performance and statistically, Reds have the worst pitching staff in baseball. But what do they do with their top picks? Well, not opt for pitching. We'll see what they do with the bottom half of the draft.
 
Also good to note that pick number 30, Reggie Crawford, was transferring from UConn to Tennessee. He committed to Tennessee just about a week ago. So, the fact that he went 30 at least means that we won't see him wearing puke Orange in 2023.

Crawford had TJ surgery, but was touching 100+ as a lefty in the summer of 2021. He would have also played both ways for Tennessee. So, this is a big time loss for them.

Tennessee also lost 3 starters to the draft last night. So, big day for them, but shows that they'll have a lot of reloading to do. All the talking heads don't seem worried about it though.
 
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Really like this guy, hope the Reds don't screw him up too bad.

By every measurable possible, by performance and statistically, Reds have the worst pitching staff in baseball. But what do they do with their top picks? Well, not opt for pitching. We'll see what they do with the bottom half of the draft.
They have a ton of pitching depth in their system. Reds badly needed to upgrade position players in both this draft and at the trade deadline.
 
They have a ton of pitching depth in their system. Reds badly needed to upgrade position players in both this draft and at the trade deadline.
We'll see. I like Collier, has a good future just hope it's with the Reds. He apparently tore up the Coastal Plain. My son played in that league, it's not the Cape but is a solid collegiate wood bat league. And it's good they took another C although this guy is a lightweight hitter. Still, they need to start clearing a path for Stevenson to 1B and maybe this is a first step. Anxious to see what Day Two brings.
 
No real surprises after the first night. Ryan Ritter and Caden Dana were both possibilities with the first 80 picks, but both are still on the board to start today. I believe it starts back at 2 p.m. ET this afternoon. Ritter, Dana, Specht, Estep, Guilfoil are all guys I'd say have a good shot at going today.
I think they'll feel a lot better about Dana making it to school if he gets past pick 90 or so due to asking price.
 
Always wondered: Why don't you see trading of draft picks in MLB draft the way you do in NFL/NBA draft?
 
And from the looks of things, I doubt he has any intentions of playing for Louisville. Will be very surprised if that happens. Sounds like he reclassified and went JUCO early to boost his draft stock. UofL, was his backup plan. Lets just hope the Reds don't keep him in the Minors for 7 years before moving him up. hopefully he's ready by the time he turns 20-21. Seems like he has elite hitting mechanics, hopefully that can be harnessed.
If he turns out to be decent the Reds will just trade him.
 
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I've stopped trying to predict what will happen in the MLB draft, but a team is going to have to overslot big time to get Caden Dana at this point. Not that it can't/won't happen, but we're looking at slot values in the $200,000s now and he's likely signing for nothing less than $1.2M or so.
 
Don't think it was allowed until very recently and even now there are a lot of restrictions on them.

Braves recently traded a draft pick. Braves traded 3 prospects for a compensation pick. Don't remember who it was. Thought it was interesting
 
I've stopped trying to predict what will happen in the MLB draft, but a team is going to have to overslot big time to get Caden Dana at this point. Not that it can't/won't happen, but we're looking at slot values in the $200,000s now and he's likely signing for nothing less than $1.2M or so.

That price tag hurting him and pushing him down the board?
 
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