What are your early odds on each player returning next year?
- Thread starter JonathanW
- Start date
I would put Sheppard at like 20 percent, he is a projected lottery pick, he is gone. I also think hart transfers
Thiero 90
Burks 85
the other players all less than 10
Cal 100
Burks 85
the other players all less than 10
Cal 100
Sick of this!!! 10% for the whole lot. Wish it was 90% for CCC
We all want Reed to stay, but he isn’t. NBA loves an athletic shooter at point.
Zero percent for any of them. That way you can be pleasantly surprised when a few do.
LOLWUT
Wagner
Dillingham
Bradshaw
Ivisic
Edwards
All ZERO.
Shep 15%
Thiero 50%
Burks 25% - transfer
Hart - 25% - transfer
Ugo - 50%
I would not put anyone over 50%, that is way it is here.
100% Coach Cal
63% Brad Calipari
50% Theiro
40% Burks
30% Onyenso
25% Hart
3% Sheppard
2% Wagner
0% Edwards
0% Ivisic
0% Bradshaw
0% Dillingham
63% Brad Calipari
50% Theiro
40% Burks
30% Onyenso
25% Hart
3% Sheppard
2% Wagner
0% Edwards
0% Ivisic
0% Bradshaw
0% Dillingham
That is the way i feel every year. Expect all to leave surprised when anyone returns
BIG Z Gone
Bradshaw Gone
Ugo Gone - Wanted to leave last year.
Burks - Gone - he is used to playing a ton and did not get hardly any run.
Mitchell of course gone
Reeves of course gone
Wagner Gone
Dillingham gone
Edwards Gone
Adou - I think he is gone. He should be starting and everyone knows it including his dad.
Hart - Do not know nothing about him so doubt he will be back. Probably end up at UCLA or somewhere like that.
Sheppard: Not sure. I think he wants to win a NCAA Championship like his dad.
CAL - No information but from his radio show he pretty much stated why give up 9 mil a year job. SO I put him as back.
Bradshaw Gone
Ugo Gone - Wanted to leave last year.
Burks - Gone - he is used to playing a ton and did not get hardly any run.
Mitchell of course gone
Reeves of course gone
Wagner Gone
Dillingham gone
Edwards Gone
Adou - I think he is gone. He should be starting and everyone knows it including his dad.
Hart - Do not know nothing about him so doubt he will be back. Probably end up at UCLA or somewhere like that.
Sheppard: Not sure. I think he wants to win a NCAA Championship like his dad.
CAL - No information but from his radio show he pretty much stated why give up 9 mil a year job. SO I put him as back.
I think there's a really good chance that they are all gone except maybe Hart.
This used to be a fun exercise before the transfer portal blew up.. But there's almost no way of knowing anymore. The player we think is the safest 100% chance to return, could bail in July because Nebraska offered him some more NIL money.
The hope is that return at least some of the core, and a little more than we did this year which was just Thiero, Ugo, and Reeves (Probably one of our least amount of returning players in recent years).
If we can keep 2 or 3 guys of the following: Thiero, Burks, Ugo, Shep, BigZ.. that would be a good start. Probably a chance that we get one of our elite freshman to return.. whether it's Edwards or maybe Bradshaw.
The hope is that return at least some of the core, and a little more than we did this year which was just Thiero, Ugo, and Reeves (Probably one of our least amount of returning players in recent years).
If we can keep 2 or 3 guys of the following: Thiero, Burks, Ugo, Shep, BigZ.. that would be a good start. Probably a chance that we get one of our elite freshman to return.. whether it's Edwards or maybe Bradshaw.
NIL money and playing time. No one likes sitting the bench behind players they are out performing. Burks will transfer as he likely should. Only way I see him not transferring is if cal uses him more down the stretch as he did at Vandy. I’m guessing it will be more like Hopkins however. Cal stays pretty consistent with his nonsensical ways.
Thiero transfers. Ugo transfers. Burks transfers.
Dilly, Wagner, Edwards, Bradshaw, Reeves, Big Z, Mitchell all gone to the draft.
Sheppard I really think sticks around. It's an odd legacy situation and I truly think his parents want him to stay for more than one year. The money isn't a problem and he can only continue to prove himself on the defensive end of the floor.
Hart, I have no idea but it doesn't matter a lot.
Dilly, Wagner, Edwards, Bradshaw, Reeves, Big Z, Mitchell all gone to the draft.
Sheppard I really think sticks around. It's an odd legacy situation and I truly think his parents want him to stay for more than one year. The money isn't a problem and he can only continue to prove himself on the defensive end of the floor.
Hart, I have no idea but it doesn't matter a lot.
All go that are listed, 1 (Dilly goes in the lottery) the rest go to the G league and most over seas to play. Outside of dilly no one including Reed have the game ready talent for the next level at this time. Another year, we may be loaded in the lottery.
The mocks are going to catch up with Sheppard very soon, always a month behind. Conference play, while he hasn’t played poorly, it’s brought him back down to earth some. He’s not a lotto pick. There’s not a single NBA player currently playing that he can defend and he hasn’t shown the ability to create his own shot from the perimeter. If he goes, he’s probably more likely in the 20-25 range. I think he returns to work on the 2 things I mentioned above. Would love to see him play for a new coach here and be the focal point of the offense.
With the portal now, it is hard to say for the guys who would normally come back, but here is my GUESS.
Theiro - 80% (if no transfer)
Burks - 50% (depending on playing time the rest of the way. If he doesn't get playing time, big transfer candidate)
Hart - 20% (I think he transfers)
Onyenso - 25% (if he gets any kind of guarantee, he is gone)
Cal - Not a player, 100% lock he is back. Just curious, why include him in a players thread ? HMMM.
Sheppard - 60% ( I think there is a good chance he comes back to work on some things that need improving.
Edwards, Bradshaw, Wagner, and Dillingham - 100% gone. That was the plan to begin with.
Z - 50% - This is the toughest to gauge. He got here late and has had some issues with injury and being sick slowing his development, he loves it here (has stated numerous times), wouldn't shock me if he comes back for a second year.
Theiro - 80% (if no transfer)
Burks - 50% (depending on playing time the rest of the way. If he doesn't get playing time, big transfer candidate)
Hart - 20% (I think he transfers)
Onyenso - 25% (if he gets any kind of guarantee, he is gone)
Cal - Not a player, 100% lock he is back. Just curious, why include him in a players thread ? HMMM.
Sheppard - 60% ( I think there is a good chance he comes back to work on some things that need improving.
Edwards, Bradshaw, Wagner, and Dillingham - 100% gone. That was the plan to begin with.
Z - 50% - This is the toughest to gauge. He got here late and has had some issues with injury and being sick slowing his development, he loves it here (has stated numerous times), wouldn't shock me if he comes back for a second year.
I’ll play…..
Cal 100%
Theiro 95%
Onyenso 90%
Burks 50%
Sheppard 25% (Cal tells him, “It will be your team next year… and here’s the biggest NIL I’ve ever seen here”)
Ivisic 15%
Hart 5%
Dilly 0
Bradshaw 0
Edwards 0
Wagner 0
I consider myself optimistic
I also understand that they come here to leave and we should be surprised when they stay
Cal 100%
Theiro 95%
Onyenso 90%
Burks 50%
Sheppard 25% (Cal tells him, “It will be your team next year… and here’s the biggest NIL I’ve ever seen here”)
Ivisic 15%
Hart 5%
Dilly 0
Bradshaw 0
Edwards 0
Wagner 0
I consider myself optimistic
I also understand that they come here to leave and we should be surprised when they stay
100% everyone leaves, we start with a new slate and coach. Might be in better shape next year then this year.
I'm a HUGE Reed Sheppard fan, but if there's any movement in his draft stock from now until the draft, I don't think it'll be in his favor. Size, athleticism, speed, physicality, etc - just don't bode well for him. He has a high IQ, shoots the absolute piss out of the ball, but he's a fairly significant liability in other aspects of the game.
He very well may be a 1st round pick. But when it's all said and done, I don't expect him to be a lottery pick this year. There's supposed to be a strong European presence in the draft this year, and obviously G-Leage players in the draft and other college players. I just don't see him maintaining his lottery status.
I think Thiero, Onyenso, and Burks will be back. Hart maybe, but he won’t play next season even if he returns.
Sheppard might return. If he was a typical Cal OAD type, I would say he is gone, but he is so connected to the university and his family, so there’s a better chance than you would normally think.
I’m predicting Sheppard, Thiero, Onyenso, and Burks return.
I think Jasper Johnson reclasses and signs for this season.
I think we sign Knox.
G Sheppard/Fland
G Johnson/Perry
G Knox/Richmond
F Quaintance/Thiero/Burks
F Onyenso/Cyril
Sheppard might return. If he was a typical Cal OAD type, I would say he is gone, but he is so connected to the university and his family, so there’s a better chance than you would normally think.
I’m predicting Sheppard, Thiero, Onyenso, and Burks return.
I think Jasper Johnson reclasses and signs for this season.
I think we sign Knox.
G Sheppard/Fland
G Johnson/Perry
G Knox/Richmond
F Quaintance/Thiero/Burks
F Onyenso/Cyril
The more I watch Knox, the less impressed I am, he just looks to be a okay player. I rather fill that spot with a reeves like scorer who I know will contribute, rather than take the gamble Knox reaches what he can become
I see we are already having to defer to "just wait till next year"
Doubtful he ends up in the lottery despite mock drafts
Could see it happening, but the draft class is terrible next year, and I could also see a team taking a chance on him as a second unit offensive spark plug
Why would Sheppard come back to a team that will suck?
Chance of return:
100%
Cal, Adou
90%
Ugo
60%
Burks
40%
Reed
10%
Edwards, Hart, Big Z
0%
Wagner, Dillingham, Bradshaw, Reeves, Tre
100%
Cal, Adou
90%
Ugo
60%
Burks
40%
Reed
10%
Edwards, Hart, Big Z
0%
Wagner, Dillingham, Bradshaw, Reeves, Tre
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the idea of anyone on this team leaving early for the NBA except maybe Rob Dillingham is just laughable. But they'll all do it I expect
I agree with all of this . Hart will transfer and Thiero , Oneyenso and burks return for sure and if we don't win a title Sheppard does too.
For background (some on here seem to distort the facts), here is how many returned after each year under Cal, out of how many could have returned:
2010: 4 of 10 returned, 5 went pro, 1 IDK (Dodson)
2011: 6 of 9 returned, 2 went pro, 1 transferred
2012: 4 of 9 returned, 5 went pro
2013: 4 of 9 returned, 2 went pro, 2 transferred, 1 retired due to injuries (Beckham)
2014: 8 of 10 returned, 2 went pro
2015: 5 of 12 returned, 7 went pro
2016: 5 of 10 returned, 3 went pro, 2 transferred
2017: 3 of 8 returned, 5 went pro
2018: 4 of 11 returned, 6 went pro, 1 transferred
2019: 4 of 9 returned, 3 went pro, 2 transferred
2020: 2 of 9 returned, 6 went pro, 1 transferred
2021: 5 of 11 returned, 4 went pro, 2 transferred
2022: 6 of 10 returned, 1 went pro, 3 transferred
2023: 3 of 11 returned, 4 went pro, 4 transferred
Total: 63 of 138 returned, 55 went pro, 18 transferred, 2 'other'
2024: X of 11 returned, Y went pro, Z transferred
* in 2021, due to Covid, everyone could have returned
* mid-year transfers count as players who could have returned but transferred
* medical redshirts count as players who returned
* walk-ons are not included
* "went pro" means attempted to, in US or elsewhere
Observations:
- 9-12 could have returned every year
- 2-8 did return,
- 4.5 (46%) players averaged returning each year
- 4+ returned 75% of the years, but the median was 4 returning, 4 was also the mode (most common #)
- 3.9 (40%) players averaged going pro each year
- 1.3 (13%) transferred, 1/2 of those the past 3 years when "the portal" opened
2010: 4 of 10 returned, 5 went pro, 1 IDK (Dodson)
2011: 6 of 9 returned, 2 went pro, 1 transferred
2012: 4 of 9 returned, 5 went pro
2013: 4 of 9 returned, 2 went pro, 2 transferred, 1 retired due to injuries (Beckham)
2014: 8 of 10 returned, 2 went pro
2015: 5 of 12 returned, 7 went pro
2016: 5 of 10 returned, 3 went pro, 2 transferred
2017: 3 of 8 returned, 5 went pro
2018: 4 of 11 returned, 6 went pro, 1 transferred
2019: 4 of 9 returned, 3 went pro, 2 transferred
2020: 2 of 9 returned, 6 went pro, 1 transferred
2021: 5 of 11 returned, 4 went pro, 2 transferred
2022: 6 of 10 returned, 1 went pro, 3 transferred
2023: 3 of 11 returned, 4 went pro, 4 transferred
Total: 63 of 138 returned, 55 went pro, 18 transferred, 2 'other'
2024: X of 11 returned, Y went pro, Z transferred
* in 2021, due to Covid, everyone could have returned
* mid-year transfers count as players who could have returned but transferred
* medical redshirts count as players who returned
* walk-ons are not included
* "went pro" means attempted to, in US or elsewhere
Observations:
- 9-12 could have returned every year
- 2-8 did return,
- 4.5 (46%) players averaged returning each year
- 4+ returned 75% of the years, but the median was 4 returning, 4 was also the mode (most common #)
- 3.9 (40%) players averaged going pro each year
- 1.3 (13%) transferred, 1/2 of those the past 3 years when "the portal" opened
That's how I view it, as well. If Reed weren't a KY legacy kid, I'd say he's gone with the rest. But I have a feeling we get him for one more year, barring a Final Four run.
I don’t expect any of the current scholarship players to return! Why would they besides NIL, which has been proven, is available pretty much anywhere!
Those who aren’t 100% looking to go pro or graduate, will transfer. These players aren’t dumb, they know Calipari sucks as a HC and motivator/ developer! Why play for a guy who brings 2 future NBA All-Stars off the bench? Why play for a guy who let’s players make up injuries instead of them coming off the bench?
I’d put Thiero at 20%, but even that is a stretch.
Those who aren’t 100% looking to go pro or graduate, will transfer. These players aren’t dumb, they know Calipari sucks as a HC and motivator/ developer! Why play for a guy who brings 2 future NBA All-Stars off the bench? Why play for a guy who let’s players make up injuries instead of them coming off the bench?
I’d put Thiero at 20%, but even that is a stretch.
This is the most likely answer yet, imo -- with the caveat that 1 of the 3 in the likely 'transfer' group probably returns - but obviously wouldn't surprise me if zero did.
I suspect that if no one else is returning, then Sheppard would be less likely to also. I think, for example, that if Thiero, Burks, and Onyenso return that might have some positive impact on Sheppard returning (but not determinative, of course).
As for Hart, I disagree that it doesn't matter if he returns. You build winning teams with upperclassmen who were once in Hart's position this season. We can see that he has the size and shooting ability to play 2G (maybe SF). But we haven't seen nearly enough to forecast that he'll never be a good player. That's some crazy Calipari one-and-done model thinking. Hart was one of the top players in IN. His father is/was a coach, so you would think Hart probably has a pretty good base understanding of how to play. And most importantly, UK recruited him to one of the top programs in CBB. If it's already "obvious" that Hart can't play Div. I basketball (although how that is obvious baffles me), then why was he brought in? I think the jury is still out on Hart, as it is for most freshmen at other schools - apparently just not at OAD University.
Well out of the 5 freshman UK has..dillingham Edwards Wagner Bradshaw and Sheppard they’ll all be gone. And only dillingham can even dream of producing in the NBA as of right now. Thats what the used car salesman has turned this program into
I might have missed it but I didn’t see one post in this thread that said wait till next year actually, it seemed more worrisome about. What are we gonna have next year
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