Ramifications of winning the Ark series

[backinky2018]

1). Now #1 in RPI (remember that the RPI is very important to the selection committee in baseball)
2). #1 in the SEC with six games to play (one game up on UT and 2 games up on A&M)
3). Lock for a national seed, IMO (this is arguable, but I stand by it). If I am wrong, then I maintain that we need no more than 1 more SEC win (that would give us 19) to lock it down. Hint, we are not losing 5 of our last 6 SEC games with Vandy on the schedule to end the year.

At this point, it's about trying to peak at the right time and angling for the best matchups in the tournament.

 

[vhcat70]

I mean if we win out, 7-0, unlikely but not an impossibility, we could/likely would be the #1 overall national seed.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I mean if we win out, 7-0, unlikely but not an impossibility, we could/likely would be the #1 overall national seed.

I think you could conceivably get there going 4-3. Only games that matter are league games. Win the last two series and it'd be hard to argue we're not the best team. I think only Tennessee would have a case.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Fun fact though... dont think the 1 seed has ever won the CWS, so we may not even want it. Lol

 

[maysvilleky]

I think UK still needs to win at least 2 SEC games to be a top 8 seed.

 

[sluggercatfan]

I just want a shot at hosting both regionals.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I think UK still needs to win at least 2 SEC games to be a top 8 seed.

Let's look at what history tells us:

2023: Florida, Arkansas, Vandy, and LSU were all top 8 national seeds. Florida and Arky were 2 and 3 and had 20 league wins. LSU and Vandy were 5 and 6 and had 19 league wins. UK was actually next highest SEC school at 16 wins and 12 seed.

2022: Tennessee (25) and TAMU (19) were the only two SEC teams to make the top 8. Florida and Auburn were 13 and 14 and had 15 and 16 league wins. Tennessee was the number 1 overall.

2021: Arkansas (22), Tennessee (20), Vanderbilt (19) and Miss State (20) were in the top 8 with Arky taking the top spot. Ole Miss was 12th with 18 league wins and Florida was 15th with 17.

2019: Vandy (23), Georgia (21), Arkansas (20), and Miss State (20) were all top 8. Ole Miss and LSU were 12 and 13 and had 16 and 17 league wins.

2018: Florida (20), Ole Miss (18), Arkansas (18), and Georgia (18) were top 8 seeds. No other SEC were hosts.

The last time a team won 19 league games and was not a top 8 seed was, you guessed it, UK in 2017. However, I imagine UK did not have a SOS that was extremely high that year and so our RPI held us back a lot, which would be very different from this season.

I would say 19 gets us a top 8. 20 is an absolute lock. Would rather see them win at least 2 more just to be sure, but 19 should be enough to get us there with our RPI.

 

[backinky2018]

I mean if we win out, 7-0, unlikely but not an impossibility, we could/likely would be the #1 overall national seed.

Agreed, though I don't want the number 1 overall seed. we don't need the pressure, and also the number 1 overall seed hasn't won the title since the late 90s.

 

[backinky2018]

Let's look at what history tells us:

2023: Florida, Arkansas, Vandy, and LSU were all top 8 national seeds. Florida and Arky were 2 and 3 and had 20 league wins. LSU and Vandy were 5 and 6 and had 19 league wins. UK was actually next highest SEC school at 16 wins and 12 seed.

2022: Tennessee (25) and TAMU (19) were the only two SEC teams to make the top 8. Florida and Auburn were 13 and 14 and had 15 and 16 league wins. Tennessee was the number 1 overall.

2021: Arkansas (22), Tennessee (20), Vanderbilt (19) and Miss State (20) were in the top 8 with Arky taking the top spot. Ole Miss was 12th with 18 league wins and Florida was 15th with 17.

2019: Vandy (23), Georgia (21), Arkansas (20), and Miss State (20) were all top 8. Ole Miss and LSU were 12 and 13 and had 16 and 17 league wins.

2018: Florida (20), Ole Miss (18), Arkansas (18), and Georgia (18) were top 8 seeds. No other SEC were hosts.

The last time a team won 19 league games and was not a top 8 seed was, you guessed it, UK in 2017. However, I imagine UK did not have a SOS that was extremely high that year and so our RPI held us back a lot, which would be very different from this season.

I would say 19 gets us a top 8. 20 is an absolute lock. Would rather see them win at least 2 more just to be sure, but 19 should be enough to get us there with our RPI.

I think we're already a lock, but I agree, I don't want to leave anything to chance. The most important things are: A). get a top 8 seed and thus host both a regional and a super B ) angle for the best matchups - I prefer to avoid UT and (to a lesser extent) A&M until the CWS finals. Give me Clemson, Arkansas, FSU, ECU all day long, C) avoid uncomfortable home matchups in the regional (I'd really rather not have to beat UL to go to our fourth ever super).

 

[FtWorthCat]

Is baseball like basketball in that the regular season champion is the SEC Champion, and then you have the SEC Tournament Champion separately? How long has it been since UK finished with the best regular season SEC record?

It's basically a 4-team race. UK and the Vols have similar schedules left. Both play Vandy, Tennessee plays them in Nashville, we play them in Lexington. UK is at Florida this weekend, while Tennessee has South Carolina in Knoxville the last weekend. Texas A&M and Arkansas play each other the last weekend. So a slight schedule advantage to UK over the last two weekends.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Is baseball like basketball in that the regular season champion is the SEC Champion, and then you have the SEC Tournament Champion separately? How long has it been since UK finished with the best regular season SEC record?

It's basically a 4-team race. UK and the Vols have similar schedules left. Both play Vandy, Tennessee plays them in Nashville, we play them in Lexington. UK is at Florida this weekend, while Tennessee has South Carolina in Knoxville the last weekend. Texas A&M and Arkansas play each other the last weekend. So a slight schedule advantage to UK over the last two weekends.

I think last time UK finished first was 2006. They shared it that year I believe.

They'll have a tournament after the regular season. It's kind of an odd setup with it partly being single elimination and partly being double elimination. They play in Hoover, Alabama.

After that it's the NCAA tournament. That is setup as 16 4 team tournaments the first weekend. Double elimination. The 16 teams that dvance will play an opponent in a best of 3 series. UK is in a good position to host both those. Last 8 standing go to CWS. UK is only SEC school not to have a CWS appearance.

 

[FtWorthCat]

But the SEC Champion is the regular season champion, correct? That's the way it is in basketball, even though the tournament champion gets the automatic bid.

 

[Comebakatz3]

But the SEC Champion is the regular season champion, correct? That's the way it is in basketball, even though the tournament champion gets the automatic bid.

Apologies. Yes, it is like basketball.

 

[LukaszObrzut]

Let’s say we are a top 8 seed.
What type of team 9-16 would UK maybe like to see in such a matchup?

Chances it’s another SEC team?

 

[maysvilleky]

Let’s say we are a top 8 seed.
What type of team 9-16 would UK maybe like to see in such a matchup?

Chances it’s another SEC team?

In the first round it seems the teams are usually from the MAC and a BIG10 team with some other mid-major.

If UK advanced it will likely be another seeded team, so someone from the SEC or ACC is a strong possibility. But I’ll go outside those two conferences and say maybe Indiana St.

 

[LukaszObrzut]

In the first round it seems the teams are usually from the MAC and a BIG10 team with some other mid-major.

If UK advanced it will likely be another seeded team, so someone from the SEC or ACC is a strong possibility. But I’ll go outside those two conferences and say maybe Indiana St.

Right- predicting a Super Regional matchup if all the 1 seed from regional won.
Indiana St in other words is a prediction.

Baseball is generally location based if possible- closest one most likely

Is Louisville looking to make the tournament? They have often been a regional oppnent.

 

[backinky2018]

Let’s say we are a top 8 seed.
What type of team 9-16 would UK maybe like to see in such a matchup?

Chances it’s another SEC team?

Well, the regional round is a four team pod that would come to Lexington. We would likely see either a mid-tier ACC team (think NC state or Virginia Tech), or a big 12 team (think WVU or UC), probably a big ten team (Indiana or Illinois), and then a Mac team (bowling green or wright state). Should UK win that pod, we would get a very good team coming to Lexington for the supers. UK is projected anywhere from the number 1 overall seed (baseball America this morning) to the number 5 or 6 overall seed. So, we could see someone like South Carolina, Virginia, Oregon state, Georgia, Indiana state, or Duke coming to Lexington for super regional weekend.

These are exciting times.

 

[RogerIndy]

Right- predicting a Super Regional matchup if all the 1 seed from regional won.
Indiana St in other words is a prediction.

Baseball is generally location based if possible- closest one most likely

Is Louisville looking to make the tournament? They have often been a regional oppnent.

UL is 29-19 overall and 13-11 in the ACC. I think they are considered a bubble team.

 

[maysvilleky]

UL is 29-19 overall and 13-11 in the ACC. I think they are considered a bubble team.

I just checked and their RPI is 57…so yeah leaning towards the bubble. But my guess is that they will be in and might be sent to UK…which I would hate!

 

[backinky2018]

I just checked and their RPI is 57…so yeah leaning towards the bubble. But my guess is that they will be in and might be sent to UK…which I would hate!

UL is definitely on the bubble. Their acc record is pretty decent, and they have 6 games left (3 on the road at UNC and then 3 with ND at home). They'd be favored to go 3-3 which would leave them squarely on the bubble going into the ACCT.

UNC is very high in the RPI so any wins in Chapel Hill would help them and any loss won't hurt them at all. 57 in RPI is def too high for them to get in, so every game from now until the end is going to be a white knuckle for them.

 

[RogerIndy]

I just checked and their RPI is 57…so yeah leaning towards the bubble. But my guess is that they will be in and might be sent to UK…which I would hate!

Yea, send them to Terre Haute