ADVERTISEMENT

Let's Talk SEC-Tournament Seeding (In-Depth Breakdown)

Tampa_cat54

Tampa_cat54

Senior
Apr 22, 2011
6,444
11,327
113
Breakdown for anyone wondering about SEC-T seeding based on current picture.

We need to be the 3 seed, no other way to put it. Need to put ourselves in the best position to get two Quad-1 wins the SECT, and the 3 seed is our best shot.

2 is probably unattainable (though if we can find a way to go 4-0 and TA&M loses to Tenn, @Miss State, and Alabama, we'd get the 2 seed).

4 would put us with just 1 win until we'd have to play Alabama in the semis.

Current Top-2, locked into the Double-Bye:

#1 Alabama (13-1)
#2 Texas A&M (12-2)

TEAMS THAT CURRENTLY HAVE A SHOT TO LAND IN THE TOP 4 AND GET THE DOUBLE-BYE:

#3 Kentucky (9-5)
#4 Tennessee (9-5)
#5 Vandy (8-6)
#6 Auburn (8-6)
#7 Arkansas (7-7)

Remaining Schedules and My Predictions

#3 Kentucky (9-5)- 2ND EASIEST REMAINING SCHEDULE
@ Florida (W)
vs. Auburn (W)
vs. Vandy (W)
@ Arkansas (L)

#4 Tennessee (9-5)- MEDIAN REMAINING SCHEDULE
@ Texas A&M (W)
vs. South Carolina (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ Auburn (L)

#5 Vandy (8-6)- EASIEST REMAINING SCHEDULE
@ LSU (W)
vs. Florida (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
vs. Mississippi State (W)

#6 Auburn (8-6)- TOUGHEST REMAINING SCHEDULE
vs. Ole Miss (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
@ Alabama (L)
vs. Tennessee (W)

#7 Arkansas (7-7)- 2nd TOUGHEST REMAINING SCHEDULE
vs. Georgia (W)
@ Alabama (L)
@ Tennessee (L)
vs. Kentucky (W)

SO- if my predictions would be correct, this would be the final standings.

FINAL PROJECTED STANDINGS:

#1 Alabama (16-2)
#2 Texas A&M (14-4)
#3 Kentucky (12-6)
#4 Tennessee (12-6)
#5 Vandy (11-7)
#6 Auburn (10-8)
#7 Arkansas (9-9)

Essentially, I predict the current top 7 to stay exactly as it is currently, with Kentucky probably facing Auburn in the quarterfinals, and the winner playing either Arkansas or Texas A&M in the semis. Win that one, and you play either Alabama or Tennessee again.

Thoughts?
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Padsfs07, CatOfDaVille, nickhorvathsuxazz and 5 others
Let me also just follow up that this would put us at six Q1 regular season wins, with a chance to get 3 more in the SEC Tournament.
 
  • Like
Reactions: EliteBlue
I would agree that seems to be a likely finish for all the teams. UK probably has to go 3 and 1 to get the 3. If we lose our last 2 we could lose a double bye all together.

As for the SEC tourney I wouldn't expect much with this bunch. The SEC quarterfinals game will be tough and then probably bow out in semis based on recent history. This is a year where I'd be ok with losing Saturday to get more rest for ncaa. We aren't beating bama anyways.
 
  • Sad
Reactions: howercat
UKWildcats1987 said:
I would agree that seems to be a likely finish for all the teams. UK probably has to go 3 and 1 to get the 3. If we lose our last 2 we could lose a double bye all together.

As for the SEC tourney I wouldn't expect much with this bunch. The SEC quarterfinals game will be tough and then probably bow out in semis based on recent history. This is a year where I'd be ok with losing Saturday to get more rest for ncaa. We aren't beating bama anyways.
Click to expand...

I think anything can happen in an SEC-T setting.

Remember Vandy beat our 2011-2012 team in the title game, and Bama has had some close calls, plus it'll be a home game for us.

I want to at least get to the SEC title game, we can beat Auburn and Texas A&M.
 
IF this holds with UK as the 3 seed we'd play at 8:00 Friday night and then 2:00 Saturday.

The 4 seed gets a much earlier tip at 2:00. That doesn't make sense to reward the 4 with a better start time.
 
  • Like
Reactions: entropy13 and KYExtemper
Seedings for the NCAAT are pretty much done by the time the SECT final is played on selection Sunday. It’s BS that the SEC hasn’t adjusted the tournament schedule to finish on Saturday.
 
  • Like
Reactions: EliteBlue and ruppcat
ruppcat said:
IF this holds with UK as the 3 seed we'd play at 8:00 Friday night and then 2:00 Saturday.

The 4 seed gets a much earlier tip at 2:00. That doesn't make sense to reward the 4 with a better start time.
Click to expand...

Well the 4 has to play as close to the 1 as possible since they play each other, same with the 2 and the 3.
 
8 SEC teams will make tourney

Miss St only team on bubble- Vandy closing fast

AL, AU, ARK, UK, MO, TAM and TN are locks
 
rick64 said:
Seedings for the NCAAT are pretty much done by the time the SECT final is played on selection Sunday. It’s BS that the SEC hasn’t adjusted the tournament schedule to finish on Saturday.
Click to expand...

I completely agree.

That's why I just want to make sure we can win the first 2 games!

Beat Auburn and Texas A&M to get to the title game and you're in good shape by adding two more Q1 wins to the resume.
 
WeWant9 said:
I’ll be curious to see how Texas AM finishes the season.
Click to expand...

They could EASILY go 1-3 down the stretch (losses to Tenn, Bama and @ Miss State), and we could conceivably (but not likely) go 4-0 and steal the 2 seed away from them.

Not likely, but definitely could happen.

The pro side of them keeping the 2 seed is that it means they likely beat Bama and/or Tennessee, keeping it a Q1 win for us.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nickhorvathsuxazz and AGEE11
Tampa_cat54 said:
Well the 4 has to play as close to the 1 as possible since they play each other, same with the 2 and the 3.
Click to expand...
True.....but the winners all play the next day.

Seems the tip time should be based on seeding with the 1 getting the earliest start and the 4 the latest. It's the reward for the better record.
 
Tampa_cat54 said:
They could EASILY go 1-3 down the stretch (losses to Tenn, Bama and @ Miss State), and we could conceivably (but not likely) go 4-0 and steal the 2 seed away from them.

Not likely, but definitely could happen.

The pro side of them keeping the 2 seed is that it means they likely beat Bama and/or Tennessee, keeping it a Q1 win for us.
Click to expand...
They won’t lose at home to Tenn or on the road at MSST IMO. Look for them to even play bama tough but probably lose there to finish 15-3. Brackets aren’t being kind to them due to bad early losses but they are playing great ball now. We hit an uncharacteristic 11 3’s in our win against them. We barely even take that many of late.
 
Well this is the hole we dug by losing to South Carolina and Georgia. Have to lie in the bed you made. Also I never dreamed when we beat A&M that we would not catch them. We lost those 2 we shouldn't and they have not lost any they shouldn't.

Now we could still end up 4th or 5th and have a much earlier game of course that means we probably went 2-2 instead of 3-1 so I rather take 3rd place the late game and go 3-1 or 4-0.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nickhorvathsuxazz and Tampa_cat54
cats2010 said:
They won’t lose at home to Tenn or on the road at MSST IMO. Look for them to even play bama tough but probably lose there to finish 15-3. Brackets aren’t being kind to them due to bad early losses but they are playing great ball now. We hit an uncharacteristic 11 3’s in our win against them. We barely even take that many of late.
Click to expand...

Oh I am not predicting that they lose those games, just that it's WELL within the realm of possibility.

They could just as easily go 1-3 as they could 3-1.

Miss State will be playing, at home, for their NCAA tournament lives against A&M. That will be a high stakes ball game. And Tennessee can beat anyone, they are clearly better than A&M IMO, but A&M will be at home in a big statement game. I still have Tenn winning the game though.

But I'd put it at a 2% chance we catch them for the 2 seed. They are playing too well right now.
 
HenryMuto said:
Well this is the hole we dug by losing to South Carolina and Georgia. Have to lie in the bed you made. Also I never dreamed when we beat A&M that we would not catch them. We lost those 2 we shouldn't and they have not lost any they shouldn't.

Now we could still end up 4th or 5th and have a much earlier game of course that means we probably went 2-2 instead of 3-1 so I rather take 3rd place the late game and go 3-1 or 4-0.
Click to expand...

Exactly.

Find a way to go 3-1, get the 3 seed, and take it from there.
 
Tampa_cat54 said:
Breakdown for anyone wondering about SEC-T seeding based on current picture.

We need to be the 3 seed, no other way to put it. Need to put ourselves in the best position to get two Quad-1 wins the SECT, and the 3 seed is our best shot.

2 is probably unattainable (though if we can find a way to go 4-0 and TA&M loses to Tenn, @Miss State, and Alabama, we'd get the 2 seed).

4 would put us with just 1 win until we'd have to play Alabama in the semis.

Current Top-2, locked into the Double-Bye:

#1 Alabama (13-1)
#2 Texas A&M (12-2)

TEAMS THAT CURRENTLY HAVE A SHOT TO LAND IN THE TOP 4 AND GET THE DOUBLE-BYE:

#3 Kentucky (9-5)
#4 Tennessee (9-5)
#5 Vandy (8-6)
#6 Auburn (8-6)
#7 Arkansas (7-7)

Remaining Schedules and My Predictions

#3 Kentucky (9-5)- 2ND EASIEST REMAINING SCHEDULE
@ Florida (W)
vs. Auburn (W)
vs. Vandy (W)
@ Arkansas (L)

#4 Tennessee (9-5)- MEDIAN REMAINING SCHEDULE
@ Texas A&M (W)
vs. South Carolina (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ Auburn (L)

#5 Vandy (8-6)- EASIEST REMAINING SCHEDULE
@ LSU (W)
vs. Florida (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
vs. Mississippi State (W)

#6 Auburn (8-6)- TOUGHEST REMAINING SCHEDULE
vs. Ole Miss (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
@ Alabama (L)
vs. Tennessee (W)

#7 Arkansas (7-7)- 2nd TOUGHEST REMAINING SCHEDULE
vs. Georgia (W)
@ Alabama (L)
@ Tennessee (L)
vs. Kentucky (W)

SO- if my predictions would be correct, this would be the final standings.

FINAL PROJECTED STANDINGS:

#1 Alabama (16-2)
#2 Texas A&M (14-4)
#3 Kentucky (12-6)
#4 Tennessee (12-6)
#5 Vandy (11-7)
#6 Auburn (10-8)
#7 Arkansas (9-9)

Essentially, I predict the current top 7 to stay exactly as it is currently, with Kentucky probably facing Auburn in the quarterfinals, and the winner playing either Arkansas or Texas A&M in the semis. Win that one, and you play either Alabama or Tennessee again.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Nice analysis, Tampa_cat54. Having a bye will help the cats (hopefully) prepare for a team that's already logged a game. We need to win at least one game in the SECT to stay comfortably inside the bubble (barring any last minutes slides).
 
Tampa_cat54 said:
I think anything can happen in an SEC-T setting.

Remember Vandy beat our 2011-2012 team in the title game, and Bama has had some close calls, plus it'll be a home game for us.

I want to at least get to the SEC title game, we can beat Auburn and Texas A&M.
Click to expand...
Out of Bama's 13 conference wins, exactly 2 have been under double digits...They have beaten Vandy by 57.....Georgia by 49....Florda by 28.....UK by 26....LSU by 40.

They are easily the class of the SEC. And tbh, by a lot.
 
Tampa_cat54 said:
They could EASILY go 1-3 down the stretch (losses to Tenn, Bama and @ Miss State), and we could conceivably (but not likely) go 4-0 and steal the 2 seed away from them.

Not likely, but definitely could happen.

The pro side of them keeping the 2 seed is that it means they likely beat Bama and/or Tennessee, keeping it a Q1 win for us.
Click to expand...
Don’t believe UT will win In College Station. Bama may not.
 
Tampa_cat54 said:
Breakdown for anyone wondering about SEC-T seeding based on current picture.

We need to be the 3 seed, no other way to put it. Need to put ourselves in the best position to get two Quad-1 wins the SECT, and the 3 seed is our best shot.

2 is probably unattainable (though if we can find a way to go 4-0 and TA&M loses to Tenn, @Miss State, and Alabama, we'd get the 2 seed).

4 would put us with just 1 win until we'd have to play Alabama in the semis.

Current Top-2, locked into the Double-Bye:

#1 Alabama (13-1)
#2 Texas A&M (12-2)

TEAMS THAT CURRENTLY HAVE A SHOT TO LAND IN THE TOP 4 AND GET THE DOUBLE-BYE:

#3 Kentucky (9-5)
#4 Tennessee (9-5)
#5 Vandy (8-6)
#6 Auburn (8-6)
#7 Arkansas (7-7)

Remaining Schedules and My Predictions

#3 Kentucky (9-5)- 2ND EASIEST REMAINING SCHEDULE
@ Florida (W)
vs. Auburn (W)
vs. Vandy (W)
@ Arkansas (L)

#4 Tennessee (9-5)- MEDIAN REMAINING SCHEDULE
@ Texas A&M (W)
vs. South Carolina (W)
vs. Arkansas (W)
@ Auburn (L)

#5 Vandy (8-6)- EASIEST REMAINING SCHEDULE
@ LSU (W)
vs. Florida (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
vs. Mississippi State (W)

#6 Auburn (8-6)- TOUGHEST REMAINING SCHEDULE
vs. Ole Miss (W)
@ Kentucky (L)
@ Alabama (L)
vs. Tennessee (W)

#7 Arkansas (7-7)- 2nd TOUGHEST REMAINING SCHEDULE
vs. Georgia (W)
@ Alabama (L)
@ Tennessee (L)
vs. Kentucky (W)

SO- if my predictions would be correct, this would be the final standings.

FINAL PROJECTED STANDINGS:

#1 Alabama (16-2)
#2 Texas A&M (14-4)
#3 Kentucky (12-6)
#4 Tennessee (12-6)
#5 Vandy (11-7)
#6 Auburn (10-8)
#7 Arkansas (9-9)

Essentially, I predict the current top 7 to stay exactly as it is currently, with Kentucky probably facing Auburn in the quarterfinals, and the winner playing either Arkansas or Texas A&M in the semis. Win that one, and you play either Alabama or Tennessee again.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Love it! Excellent post Tampa Cat! It reminds me of the days when we actually talked about basketball on this board. I long for those days, I must say.

I must admit, I'm surprised, after that Georgia loss especially, that this team is in a position to possibly be the 3 seed. I think we must get one of the 4 byes to have any chance of winning the SECT, especially if we're still down a player or two. Even with those guys back, I think we lack the depth to win 4 games in 4 days. 3 games in 3 days will be hard enough. Texas A&M is the surprise of the bunch, I'd say. Who saw this coming after the nonconference losses they had? Nobody. I would have predicted Tennessee and Texas A&M would be flipped.

Anyway, great post and discussion. Thanks for posting. 👍
 
  • Like
Reactions: susan2361, Tampa_cat54 and runt#69
HalHR2500 said:
It’s really irrelevant

Doesn’t help seeding one bit
Click to expand...
Once again, this isn't true.

The SEC Championship game does not impact seeding (at least it doesn't appear to), but the rounds leading up to the championship absolutely have an impact on seeding.

Anyone who thinks otherwise just doesn't know how things work.
 
Texas A&M is a 1 point favorite over Tennessee tomorrow in College Station- who is everyone pulling for?

I'd say we have to be pulling for A&M, right?
 
  • Like
Reactions: FitchandMurray29
Tampa_cat54 said:
I think anything can happen in an SEC-T setting.

Remember Vandy beat our 2011-2012 team in the title game, and Bama has had some close calls, plus it'll be a home game for us.

I want to at least get to the SEC title game, we can beat Auburn and Texas A&M.
Click to expand...
I was so shocked when that Vandy team beat us. They were a very good team that year but no way I expected them to beat us in the SECT. Fortunately it all ended perfectly that year and maybe that loss was a blessing in disguise. And, as good as Vandy was, I think they lost their first game of the tourney that year.
 
mcwildcats04 said:
I was so shocked when that Vandy team beat us. They were a very good team that year but no way I expected them to beat us in the SECT. Fortunately it all ended perfectly that year and maybe that loss was a blessing in disguise. And, as good as Vandy was, I think they lost their first game of the tourney that year.
Click to expand...

Yes they did!

I also remember 2014- Florida absolutely CRUSHED us twice in the regular season, and we were a James Young shoelace away from beating them in the SEC-Title game.

Anything can happen in the tournament, I would actually like another shot at Bama in a virtual home game. Would love to see how we stack up.
 
Tampa_cat54 said:
Yes they did!

I also remember 2014- Florida absolutely CRUSHED us twice in the regular season, and we were a James Young shoelace away from beating them in the SEC-Title game.

Anything can happen in the tournament, I would actually like another shot at Bama in a virtual home game. Would love to see how we stack up.
Click to expand...
Yes, I knew for that 2014 team after we finally turned things around in the SECT and began to finally start to live up to the potential that we'd have a shot in the big dance. Never could have imagined what a ride it would end up being.

Absolutely would love another shot at Bama in the SECT! And hopefully it's in the title game!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Tampa_cat54
Okay we need Texas A&M to win this one!

A TN loss would make it twice as likely that we get the 3 seed.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Smashcat

Sunday CBB games on TV

Replies
1
Views
296
Rupp Rafters - Basketball Forum
Smashcat
Smashcat
Son_Of_Saul

Per Matt Jones...

Replies
37
Views
6K
Rupp Rafters - Basketball Forum
crawfords corner
C
Cold Stout Beer

Who I want to win it all, in order

Replies
6
Views
740
Rupp Rafters - Basketball Forum
Rideordiewildcat
Rideordiewildcat
jedwar

Rest of Season Game by Game Predictions

Replies
48
Views
2K
Rupp Rafters - Basketball Forum
jedwar
jedwar
JSgorocks

SEC Tournament Projections (through 2/24)

Replies
28
Views
1K
The House of Blue
wadec22
wadec22
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back