Let’s Chill With the Politics, and Look at Numbers and THINK!

[The-Hack]

Google “Worldometers Corona” and look at their charts and numbers.

A few notations. The world daily death total first exceeded 200 one week, ago, March 8, 2020, at 228 deaths, or 6 percent in one day, of the total deaths of 3700ish that had by then occurred.

The last 24 hours there have been 686 deaths and the world total since January of 2020 is 6,500; meaning that the most recent day has accounted for 12 percent of all deaths from the virus since it’s inception.

These are pretty nasty numbers, and as the charts on worldometers show, the line charts for both diagnoses and deaths has become as steep . . . nearly vertical (straight up) as at any time since the beginning, indicating exponential growth.

Consider this: we have 3 times more people in America as we had at the outbreak of the Spanish Flu in 1918, BUT 10 TIMES MORE PEOPLE BEYOND THE AGE OF 90 AS WE DID IN 1918.

Sure, we’re Americans and we love to argue politics, but this is approaching a very serious situation, and for the good of all, we might want to start looking out for the best of all, instead of the best of politicians or political parties.

The measures now being taken are severe, but are based (I think) on observing what has happened in Lombard, Italy. It, along with Iran and Spain, are the new Wuhan’s. In Lombard, the medical services have been overwhelmed, and “unholy triage” is being practiced, whereby some are being allowed to go without life-saving treatment (ventilators) as others who have a better chance for survival (younger folks) are being treated, instead.

Approximately 4 percent of Corona victims require additional Oxygen; about 1 percent a ventilator.

I have read that there are approximately 50,000 ventilators available, in the US . . . meaning that a simultaneous diagnosis of Corona of less than 3 percent of our population, say 5 million cases, would likely require 50,000 simultaneous uses of ventilators.

If 10 percent of Americans were simultaneously stricken, 33 million, 330,000 of us could need the ventilators at the same time.

Frankly, I assume the 3 percent death rate in Wuhan, China was because of the lack of ventilators for the mass on-rush of serious cases.

Please Google “worldometers Corona” and use your own judgement on the info it provides.

Oh, and at least the Corona numbers there provided do not do any break downs on party affiliation!

A last thought: cruises to Lombard, Italy are a buyer’s market!!

 

[-Mav-]

I mean I get what you’re saying and all but can you get the new Chinese AIDS from drinking Mexican beer or not?

 

[The-Hack]

I mean I get what you’re saying and all but can you get the new Chinese AIDS from drinking Mexican beer or not?

No, but Corona beer has changed it’s name: henceforth to be known as “Ebola Lite.”

 

[AustinTXCat]

No, we're all doomed. Doomed, I tell you. DOOMED!

I read all about it on the Paddock.

 

[the nail at the foul line]

 

[dgtatu01]

Trying to get people out of their political caves is nearly impossible. It's especially difficult on a message board for a college sports team like Kentucky because politics has nothing to do with policy and everything to do with tribalism thus the same personality traits that make a diehard sports fan make a diehard political party fan as well. Tribalism is easy because it doesn't take much intellect and you never have to question your own beliefs. If something comes that calls into question your beliefs you just label it a lie or a conspiracy theory and move on. Look at the conversations by UK fans about anything U of L and then look at the political post at the top. They're both full of the same arrogance and stubbornness. The people in the center are the people that keep the country ticking because they are open minded and constantly reviewing facts. You must just understand the others will never change their mind. They literally lack the ability to do so.

 

[Dig Dirkler]

Trying to get people out of their political caves is nearly impossible. It's especially difficult on a message board for a college sports team like Kentucky because politics has nothing to do with policy and everything to do with tribalism thus the same personality traits that make a diehard sports fan make a diehard political party fan as well. Tribalism is easy because it doesn't take much intellect and you never have to question your own beliefs. If something comes that calls into question your beliefs you just label it a lie or a conspiracy theory and move on. Look at the conversations by UK fans about anything U of L and then look at the political post at the top. They're both full of the same arrogance and stubbornness. The people in the center are the people that keep the country ticking because they are open minded and constantly reviewing facts. You must just understand the others will never change their mind. They literally lack the ability to do so.

You’re stupid.

 

[etowncatfan]

As a medical Provider (who decided 6 months ago that this week would be my retirement date.) the biggest problem I see with this if it gets really bad all at once it will swamp all our .systems. Not only do I worry about Critical Patients who get the Coronavirus,but what about the Critical people we treat on an every day basis. It eventually could be a Manpower problem. Please everyone do your part. Go places only when you have to. Stay out of Crowds. Wash Hands as many times as you can during the day. We are all in this together!!

 

[gamecockcat]

I agree that this situation is serious. However the OP's numbers above seem a bit skewed. The OP stated that, if less than 3% of Americans got corona virus, then 50,000 ventilators would be needed. That's assuming that EVERY single diagnosed case had complications, was elderly, etc. and developed serious enough symptoms to warrant the use of a ventilator. That's statistically impossible. While the thought and care expressed by the OP is much appreciated, the underlying assumptions are faulty.

Having said that, I'm staying home at least for the next week (my office is all working 'remote'), avoiding restaurants, etc. I'm taking it seriously and am quite frankly disgusted (again) by both parties' willingness to politicize this situation and continuie to harp on their respective talking points and campaign planks. I'm completely fed up with it and would love to ignore all news until after the election but I am afraid I cannot.

 

[awf]

Google “Worldometers Corona” and look at their charts and numbers.

A few notations. The world daily death total first exceeded 200 one week, ago, March 8, 2020, at 228 deaths, or 6 percent in one day, of the total deaths of 3700ish that had by then occurred.

The last 24 hours there have been 686 deaths and the world total since January of 2020 is 6,500; meaning that the most recent day has accounted for 12 percent of all deaths from the virus since it’s inception.

These are pretty nasty numbers, and as the charts on worldometers show, the line charts for both diagnoses and deaths has become as steep . . . nearly vertical (straight up) as at any time since the beginning, indicating exponential growth.

Consider this: we have 3 times more people in America as we had at the outbreak of the Spanish Flu in 1918, BUT 10 TIMES MORE PEOPLE BEYOND THE AGE OF 90 AS WE DID IN 1918.

Sure, we’re Americans and we love to argue politics, but this is approaching a very serious situation, and for the good of all, we might want to start looking out for the best of all, instead of the best of politicians or political parties.

The measures now being taken are severe, but are based (I think) on observing what has happened in Lombard, Italy. It, along with Iran and Spain, are the new Wuhan’s. In Lombard, the medical services have been overwhelmed, and “unholy triage” is being practiced, whereby some are being allowed to go without life-saving treatment (ventilators) as others who have a better chance for survival (younger folks) are being treated, instead.

Approximately 4 percent of Corona victims require additional Oxygen; about 1 percent a ventilator.

I have read that there are approximately 50,000 ventilators available, in the US . . . meaning that a simultaneous diagnosis of Corona of less than 3 percent of our population, say 5 million cases, would likely require 50,000 simultaneous uses of ventilators.

If 10 percent of Americans were simultaneously stricken, 33 million, 330,000 of us could need the ventilators at the same time.

Frankly, I assume the 3 percent death rate in Wuhan, China was because of the lack of ventilators for the mass on-rush of serious cases.

Please Google “worldometers Corona” and use your own judgement on the info it provides.

Oh, and at least the Corona numbers there provided do not do any break downs on party affiliation!

A last thought: cruises to Lombard, Italy are a buyer’s market!!

It doesn't matter if they find 100 million ventilators in a warehouse......who is going to operate them........My wife is a Respiratory Therapist....the facility she works at is basically a ventilator facility.......she can almost handle 20 patients a day.......according to the book she should have an hour per patient per day....so it doesn't matter if someone waves a wand and finds the hardware.......there are not enough Respiratory Therapist to take care of the extra patient load.......

 

[NamelessOne]

Actual doctor here.

From what I've read, particularly from the Lancet article, it appears to be capable of correlated loop chains, long-term dichroitic inhibition and innate caspase structures. Its von-Wille pathophysiological agents sub-units exhibit non-toxic repair dysgenesis utilizing phospholipid functional kinase. This is in line with novel medial dismustase and active catalytic time-course but surprisingly its non-androgenic caspase traffic seems similar to short-term wild-type proliferation though if it's capable of ectopic negative transcriptome and can endure equal unilateral stress, it's not unusual.

If its specific epidemiological expression engineered arrayed kinase coagulates strongly with unregulated triplex mutant retroposon moderate positive transposon then engineered non-covalent chains should be applicable for a potential cure issuing generic experimental mutagenesis with phospholipid proteomic modifications.

 

[awf]

Actual doctor here.

From what I've read, particularly from the Lancet article, it appears to be capable of correlated loop chains, long-term dichroitic inhibition and innate caspase structures. Its von-Wille pathophysiological agents sub-units exhibit non-toxic repair dysgenesis utilizing phospholipid functional kinase. This is in line with novel medial dismustase and active catalytic time-course but surprisingly its non-androgenic caspase traffic seems similar to short-term wild-type proliferation though if it's capable of ectopic negative transcriptome and can endure equal unilateral stress, it's not unusual.

If its specific epidemiological expression engineered arrayed kinase coagulates strongly with unregulated triplex mutant retroposon moderate positive transposon then engineered non-covalent chains should be applicable for a potential cure issuing generic experimental mutagenesis with phospholipid proteomic modifications.

That sure cleared it up to me......

 

[AustinTXCat]

Actual doctor here.

From what I've read, particularly from the Lancet article, it appears to be capable of correlated loop chains, long-term dichroitic inhibition and innate caspase structures. Its von-Wille pathophysiological agents sub-units exhibit non-toxic repair dysgenesis utilizing phospholipid functional kinase. This is in line with novel medial dismustase and active catalytic time-course but surprisingly its non-androgenic caspase traffic seems similar to short-term wild-type proliferation though if it's capable of ectopic negative transcriptome and can endure equal unilateral stress, it's not unusual.

If its specific epidemiological expression engineered arrayed kinase coagulates strongly with unregulated triplex mutant retroposon moderate positive transposon then engineered non-covalent chains should be applicable for a potential cure issuing generic experimental mutagenesis with phospholipid proteomic modifications.

Welcome back, Z.

We've missed your commentary over the past few years.

 

[Baller Cal]

Actual doctor here.

From what I've read, particularly from the Lancet article, it appears to be capable of correlated loop chains, long-term dichroitic inhibition and innate caspase structures. Its von-Wille pathophysiological agents sub-units exhibit non-toxic repair dysgenesis utilizing phospholipid functional kinase. This is in line with novel medial dismustase and active catalytic time-course but surprisingly its non-androgenic caspase traffic seems similar to short-term wild-type proliferation though if it's capable of ectopic negative transcriptome and can endure equal unilateral stress, it's not unusual.

If its specific epidemiological expression engineered arrayed kinase coagulates strongly with unregulated triplex mutant retroposon moderate positive transposon then engineered non-covalent chains should be applicable for a potential cure issuing generic experimental mutagenesis with phospholipid proteomic modifications.

 

[*CatinIL*]

Actual doctor here.

From what I've read, particularly from the Lancet article, it appears to be capable of correlated loop chains, long-term dichroitic inhibition and innate caspase structures. Its von-Wille pathophysiological agents sub-units exhibit non-toxic repair dysgenesis utilizing phospholipid functional kinase. This is in line with novel medial dismustase and active catalytic time-course but surprisingly its non-androgenic caspase traffic seems similar to short-term wild-type proliferation though if it's capable of ectopic negative transcriptome and can endure equal unilateral stress, it's not unusual.

If its specific epidemiological expression engineered arrayed kinase coagulates strongly with unregulated triplex mutant retroposon moderate positive transposon then engineered non-covalent chains should be applicable for a potential cure issuing generic experimental mutagenesis with phospholipid proteomic modifications.

That's exactly what I've been trying to to tell everyone!

 

[Ed323232]

Actual doctor here.

From what I've read, particularly from the Lancet article, it appears to be capable of correlated loop chains, long-term dichroitic inhibition and innate caspase structures. Its von-Wille pathophysiological agents sub-units exhibit non-toxic repair dysgenesis utilizing phospholipid functional kinase. This is in line with novel medial dismustase and active catalytic time-course but surprisingly its non-androgenic caspase traffic seems similar to short-term wild-type proliferation though if it's capable of ectopic negative transcriptome and can endure equal unilateral stress, it's not unusual.

If its specific epidemiological expression engineered arrayed kinase coagulates strongly with unregulated triplex mutant retroposon moderate positive transposon then engineered non-covalent chains should be applicable for a potential cure issuing generic experimental mutagenesis with phospholipid proteomic modifications.

Huh

 

[ManitouDan]

Actual doctor here.

From what I've read, particularly from the Lancet article, it appears to be capable of correlated loop chains, long-term dichroitic inhibition and innate caspase structures. Its von-Wille pathophysiological agents sub-units exhibit non-toxic repair dysgenesis utilizing phospholipid functional kinase. This is in line with novel medial dismustase and active catalytic time-course but surprisingly its non-androgenic caspase traffic seems similar to short-term wild-type proliferation though if it's capable of ectopic negative transcriptome and can endure equal unilateral stress, it's not unusual.

If its specific epidemiological expression engineered arrayed kinase coagulates strongly with unregulated triplex mutant retroposon moderate positive transposon then engineered non-covalent chains should be applicable for a potential cure issuing generic experimental mutagenesis with phospholipid proteomic modifications.

Thanks . I knew the transcriptome would eventually cause the phosolipids to mutate and people would actually need all that TP .

 

[ManitouDan]

Ed's response might be the funniest hing I've ever read on here . Its explains EVERYTHING .. LOL

 

[TheDude73]

Actual doctor here.

From what I've read, particularly from the Lancet article, it appears to be capable of correlated loop chains, long-term dichroitic inhibition and innate caspase structures. Its von-Wille pathophysiological agents sub-units exhibit non-toxic repair dysgenesis utilizing phospholipid functional kinase. This is in line with novel medial dismustase and active catalytic time-course but surprisingly its non-androgenic caspase traffic seems similar to short-term wild-type proliferation though if it's capable of ectopic negative transcriptome and can endure equal unilateral stress, it's not unusual.

If its specific epidemiological expression engineered arrayed kinase coagulates strongly with unregulated triplex mutant retroposon moderate positive transposon then engineered non-covalent chains should be applicable for a potential cure issuing generic experimental mutagenesis with phospholipid proteomic modifications.

You're not a physician, you're more likely a PhD "doctor". No physician (MD) that works in the healthcare industry, unless they also work in academia (namely biochemistry), would have this kind of in-depth vocabulary or insight on viral science. I have a bioengineering degree (loaded with biochem and bio coursework back in the college day), and you even lost me.

 

[AustinTXCat]

You're not a physician, you're more likely a PhD "doctor". No physician (MD) that works in the healthcare industry, unless they also work in academia (namely biochemistry), would have this kind of in-depth vocabulary or insight on viral science. I have a bioengineering degree (loaded with biochem and bio coursework back in the college day), and you even lost me.

I'd be shocked if OP holds an Associate of Arts degree.

 

[The-Hack]

The OP stated that, if less than 3% of Americans got corona virus, then 50,000 ventilators would be needed. That's assuming that EVERY single diagnosed case had complications, was elderly, etc. and developed serious enough symptoms to warrant the use of a ventilator. That's statistically impossible.

We have 330,000,000 +/- people. One percent is 3.3 million people. Three percent is approximately 9.9 million people. Should 9 million people get infected, and 99 percent of them be light cases, and only one percent need a ventilator, that’s 90,000 folks for 50K ventilators.

You respond that I’m “assuming EVERY single diagnosed case . . . warrant[ed] the use of a ventilator.”

Actually, I assume that only 1 percent of the hypothetical three percent infected warrant the use of a ventilator, and that 1 percent estimate is consistent from both Chinese and Italian observations.

These numbers are really pretty easy.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

New de-facto CoronaVirus thread as the other was locked? Not sure why, it was actually becoming productive.

 

[crawfords corner]

New de-facto CoronaVirus thread as the other was locked? Not sure why, it was actually becoming productive.

Yea, I don't get it either. I was enjoying the conversation. Thanks for your responses btw. I was enjoying seeing what I was missing. I hope you and yours have been able to avoid this thing. My aging family has so far.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

 

[crawfords corner]

Actual doctor here.

From what I've read, particularly from the Lancet article, it appears to be capable of correlated loop chains, long-term dichroitic inhibition and innate caspase structures. Its von-Wille pathophysiological agents sub-units exhibit non-toxic repair dysgenesis utilizing phospholipid functional kinase. This is in line with novel medial dismustase and active catalytic time-course but surprisingly its non-androgenic caspase traffic seems similar to short-term wild-type proliferation though if it's capable of ectopic negative transcriptome and can endure equal unilateral stress, it's not unusual.

If its specific epidemiological expression engineered arrayed kinase coagulates strongly with unregulated triplex mutant retroposon moderate positive transposon then engineered non-covalent chains should be applicable for a potential cure issuing generic experimental mutagenesis with phospholipid proteomic modifications.

I was wondering when we were going to get in to the innate caspase structures. Just one question. What the hell is an innate caspase structure? While we're at it can you explain this too......
Actual doctor here(well not this part I understand that).

From what I've read, particularly from the Lancet article, it appears to be capable of correlated loop chains, long-term dichroitic inhibition and innate caspase structures. Its von-Wille pathophysiological agents sub-units exhibit non-toxic repair dysgenesis utilizing phospholipid functional kinase. This is in line with novel medial dismustase and active catalytic time-course but surprisingly its non-androgenic caspase traffic seems similar to short-term wild-type proliferation though if it's capable of ectopic negative transcriptome and can endure equal unilateral stress, it's not unusual.

If its specific epidemiological expression engineered arrayed kinase coagulates strongly with unregulated triplex mutant retroposon moderate positive transposon then engineered non-covalent chains should be applicable for a potential cure issuing generic experimental mutagenesis with phospholipid proteomic modifications.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Yea, I don't get it either. I was enjoying the conversation. Thanks for your responses btw. I was enjoying seeing what I was missing. I hope you and yours have been able to avoid this thing. My aging family has so far.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Likewise. Yeah we're good here. I have some family and others in my life that need to just stay home. The girl and I have been very fortunate that both our jobs have allowed WFH, and did so swiftly. But im already feeling claustrophobic. We also have a 5 month old puppy, so thats also fun getting her potty trained during this time.

The good news is that almost all of us cab save money somewhere.. be it eating out, travel to work, bars bills for March Madness, etc. If so, bank it, save it, and use this opportunity to get started on self betterment, lawn projects, etc.

 

[CatGotMyTongue]

I'd be shocked if OP holds an Associate of Arts degree.

AA, JD..what does it matter

 

[oldsports_]

You're not a physician, you're more likely a PhD "doctor". No physician (MD) that works in the healthcare industry, unless they also work in academia (namely biochemistry), would have this kind of in-depth vocabulary or insight on viral science. I have a bioengineering degree (loaded with biochem and bio coursework back in the college day), and you even lost me.

Or plagiarism...

This exact post is all over Reddit...... come on people

 

[bigblueinsanity]

The problem with all these numbers is they're all speculation.

We don't know how many have/had it. Likely its way more than they think. Which means all the percentages about severity are way overblown.

 

[The-Hack]

Which means all the percentages about severity are way overblown.

We can’t be sure how many have had it, but there are solid numbers on how many have had it badly enough to require additional oxygen or a ventilator. And in both “second world” Wuhan, China, and a populas section of “first world” Italy, there were not enough ventilators to serve at the peak of the disease.

 

[Wildcats1st]

I’m convinced the Iranians went into China probably 50 of them. Infected themselves and spread it through Europe and other areas sure to make it to the US. Iran is a major hot point. Why them and not India or Pakistan? They didn’t realize the virulence of the disease or knew and decided to be martyrs of sorts. No coincidence we entered a quasi war with Iran and now that country is over run. Their ambassador to the Vatican died and the first detected in England was traced back to an Iranian. China’s had nasty illness brew there for all of history. Iran weaponized this one.

 

[UKnCincy]

The problem with all these numbers is they're all speculation.

We don't know how many have/had it. Likely its way more than they think. Which means all the percentages about severity are way overblown.

The number who have or had it is irrelevant.

What’s relevant is that in every location where an outbreak has happened unchecked, the healthcare system has been overwhelmed. That is a fact that’s not speculation and not open for debate.

This is why US hospitals are now cancelling surgeries. Several of the New York hospitals are cancelling all elective surgeries through April 15 to make room for COVID-19 patients, preserve supplies and help limit further spread. Boston hospitals are doing the same.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hospit...ake-room-for-coronavirus-patients-11584298575

 

[bigblueinsanity]

We can’t be sure how many have had it, but there are solid numbers on how many have had it badly enough to require additional oxygen or a ventilator. And in both “second world” Wuhan, China, and a populas section of “first world” Italy, there were not enough ventilators to serve at the peak of the disease.

With much different demographics and medical community. Also without testing who knows how many other illnesses are lumped into this?

The number who have or had it is irrelevant.

What’s relevant is that in every location where an outbreak has happened unchecked, the healthcare system has been overwhelmed. That is a fact that’s not speculation and not open for debate.

This is why US hospitals are now cancelling surgeries. Several of the New York hospitals are cancelling all elective surgeries through April 15 to make room for COVID-19 patients, preserve supplies and help limit further spread. Boston hospitals are doing the same.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hospit...ake-room-for-coronavirus-patients-11584298575

See above. Demographics are important. Very. No one disputes this is dangerous to vulnerable people. Fortunately that message was well communicated and they're taking every precaution.

Also if you don't know how many had it, you don't know where it is in the outbreak. We may be much further along than people think. Plus it means the mortality and severity rate is much less than represented.

 

[UKBrassowTipIN]

We have 330,000,000 +/- people. One percent is 3.3 million people. Three percent is approximately 9.9 million people. Should 9 million people get infected, and 99 percent of them be light cases, and only one percent need a ventilator, that’s 90,000 folks for 50K ventilators.

You respond that I’m “assuming EVERY single diagnosed case . . . warrant[ed] the use of a ventilator.”

Actually, I assume that only 1 percent of the hypothetical three percent infected warrant the use of a ventilator, and that 1 percent estimate is consistent from both Chinese and Italian observations.

These numbers are really pretty easy.

Theyve started using 3D printers to make respirator valves in italy

 

[The-Hack]

Also without testing who knows how many other illnesses are lumped into this?

Italy has tested a multiple of what we have tested. And there are still some dying with the symptoms of Covid-19 so quickly in Italy that they have not tested positive, and are not included in the stats.

A review of worldometers’ Corona numbers show that ending yesterday, it took only 9 days for deaths worldwide to double. The prior doubling of deaths took 21 days.

 

[UKnCincy]

With much different demographics and medical community. Also without testing who knows how many other illnesses are lumped into this?



See above. Demographics are important. Very. No one disputes this is dangerous to vulnerable people. Fortunately that message was well communicated and they're taking every precaution.

Also if you don't know how many had it, you don't know where it is in the outbreak. We may be much further along than people think. Plus it means the mortality and severity rate is much less than represented.

On what evidence are you basing your assertion that somehow this will be far less severe in the US than what we’ve seen in several different countries who themselves each have very different demographics and health care systems?

 

[The-Hack]

Here are some “solid” numbers quotes I found on ventilator numbers:

“The latest study available estimates there are about 62,000 ventilators in hospitals nationwide. That figure is seven years old — so the actual number could be higher.

There are also some machines in federally stockpiled emergency supplies, though the exact number isn't public.

"There is a strategic national stockpile of ventilators, but the numbers are classified," says Toner. It's been "publicly stated," he says, that there are about 10,000 ventilators in the national stockpile. "That number might be a bit outdated, but it's probably about right," he says. Other estimates range from 4,000 to somewhat less than 10,000.


SHOTS - HEALTH NEWS
You Have A Fever And A Dry Cough. Now What?
While any extra ventilators would be an important addition, Toner says it likely wouldn't be enough to sustain the entire country through an experience like that seen in Wuhan, China.”

Another factor: many of our ventilators are already in use. In Mt. Vernon, Kentucky, the local hospital permanently houses hundreds of patients who are on permanent ventilation from spinal cord injuries and disease.

 

[The-Hack]

On what evidence are you basing your assertion that somehow this will be far less severe in the US than what we’ve seen in several different countries who themselves each have very different demographics and health care systems?

Not addressed to me, but I’ll take a swing. Hopefully our lower population density and preventative measures work in our favor. Italy (especially Lombardi) is on average 8.5 years older than the US population. And until 10 days, ago, they were openly going to restaurants and bars and kissing on both cheeks . . . an Italian custom that likely will never recover from the horrors they are now experiencing.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Italy has tested a multiple of what we have tested. And there are still some dying with the symptoms of Covid-19 so quickly in Italy that they have not tested positive, and are not included in the stats.

A review of worldometers’ Corona numbers show that ending yesterday, it took only 9 days for deaths worldwide to double. The prior doubling of deaths took 21 days.

Now do south Korea. Or Germany. Much much different.

On what evidence are you basing your assertion that somehow this will be far less severe in the US than what we’ve seen in several different countries who themselves each have very different demographics and health care systems?

Define severe. We'll all be exposed. But we don't know when it actually came here. We don't know how many had/have it. Where we are on the curve. So there's no way to track any of it because we don't have full data.

Based on that, The only thing we can say with near certainty is the mortality rate is way lower.

 

[AustinTXCat]

AA, JD..what does it matter

Acronyms hot these days. Ph.D is one.

 

[Bill Derington]

We have 330,000,000 +/- people. One percent is 3.3 million people. Three percent is approximately 9.9 million people. Should 9 million people get infected, and 99 percent of them be light cases, and only one percent need a ventilator, that’s 90,000 folks for 50K ventilators.

You respond that I’m “assuming EVERY single diagnosed case . . . warrant[ed] the use of a ventilator.”

Actually, I assume that only 1 percent of the hypothetical three percent infected warrant the use of a ventilator, and that 1 percent estimate is consistent from both Chinese and Italian observations.

These numbers are really pretty easy.

Those 90000 infected in that would require ventilators in the worst case scenario would not hit all at once. It would be scattered over a year or so. we're throwing numbers around as if they would occur tomorrow, they wouldn't.