With the additions of Humphries and Wynyard and assuming Skal is eligible

[kybassfan]

A preseason #1 is actually the FIRST poll of the season, and yes it IS a good indicator of a team ending being in contention for a Final Four or NCAA Championship. Like I said, look up NCAA Tournament history, either from 1949-on or 1979-on (when seeding the Regions started) and you will see this.

Being ranked #1 at the start in basketball is not much different than it is in football. If you start at #1, chances are you will fall no lower than a #2 seed. Like I said, simply look at the data. Like it or not, the polls are consistently more accurate in predicting seeding.

DUDE! Are you really that clueless? There is a small amount of correlation with basketball being ranked pre-season #1 and a decent run in the tourney. Starting one and ending, well. ROFL.

But, you've lost it with football. Preseason #1 is the kiss of death in football. I gotta presume you are just, well, I dunno what you are. Clueless I guess. Why don't you go play with your friends at the dorm or the corner bar or wherever you waste your time.

 

[Bigblueforever]

I could see the media ranking UNC or Maryland at #1. Those writers tend to overvalue returning players, I guess because they have seen them in action.

Regardless. the top 5 should be UK, UNC, Maryland, KU, and Duke, IMHO.

Agree

 

[kybassfan]

I could see the media ranking UNC or Maryland at #1. Those writers tend to overvalue returning players, I guess because they have seen them in action.

Regardless. the top 5 should be UK, UNC, Maryland, KU, and Duke, IMHO.

Good assessment. I'd take a top five and put that damn #1 bullseye on someone else.

 

[wildcatwelder]

I ALWAYS want to be ranked # 1, be it pre-season, mid-season, etc.

 

[BostonCat2001]

DUDE! Are you really that clueless? There is a small amount of correlation with basketball being ranked pre-season #1 and a decent run in the tourney. Starting one and ending, well. ROFL.

But, you've lost it with football. Preseason #1 is the kiss of death in football. I gotta presume you are just, well, I dunno what you are. Clueless I guess. Why don't you go play with your friends at the dorm or the corner bar or wherever you waste your time.

oops

 

[Alumni Gym]

DUDE! Are you really that clueless? There is a small amount of correlation with basketball being ranked pre-season #1 and a decent run in the tourney. Starting one and ending, well. ROFL.

But, you've lost it with football. Preseason #1 is the kiss of death in football. I gotta presume you are just, well, I dunno what you are. Clueless I guess. Why don't you go play with your friends at the dorm or the corner bar or wherever you waste your time.

Funny, but the stats don't back you up. Isn't that just funny? Ever bother to research? I think not. Well, you're a true Kentucky fan, and I hold no hard feelings whatsoever, but for God's sake, don't act like a UNCheat fan does with your logic. Facts ARE facts.

 

[kybassfan]

Funny, but the stats don't back you up. Isn't that just funny? Ever bother to research? I think not. Well, you're a true Kentucky fan, and I hold no hard feelings whatsoever, but for God's sake, don't act like a UNCheat fan does with your logic. Facts ARE facts.

I thought the facts backed me up rather well. From the other post, the one seed only stands to win the tourney about 25% of the time. The thread was about the TOP seed in the PREseason poll. You tried to expand the scope because your initial post was jibberish.

There is a pretty strong correlation with a top five seeding in preseason. There is a pretty strong correlation between the top seed and the final four. There is a weak relationship between the top seed and a tournament champion. End of story.

 

[Alumni Gym]

I thought the facts backed me up rather well. From the other post, the one seed only stands to win the tourney about 25% of the time. The thread was about the TOP seed in the PREseason poll. You tried to expand the scope because your initial post was jibberish.

There is a pretty strong correlation with a top five seeding in preseason. There is a pretty strong correlation between the top seed and the final four. There is a weak relationship between the top seed and a tournament champion. End of story.

Well, if you want to think that the FIRST OFFICIAL POLL #1 team doesn't stand the overall highest chance of winning the NCAA Championship, then you might want to look at the overall statistics. But you won't, and I can't make you. Go Big Blue!

 

[kybassfan]

Well, if you want to think that the FIRST OFFICIAL POLL #1 team doesn't stand the overall highest chance of winning the NCAA Championship, then you might want to look at the overall statistics. But you won't, and I can't make you. Go Big Blue!

I'm not going to play games with your mockery of the language. If you want to do stupid stuff like that, I'll say that being ranked below number 1 gives you a better chance of winning (the field versus the actual ranking). But that would be really stupid like saying the PREseason poll is an official in season poll. If you really believe that, compare the numbers between the poll before the first poll and the poll before the last poll.

About the only thing you can say is that the PREseason ranking is not totally random. Heck last year was one of the strongest PREseason commits by oddsmakers ever. We all know how that turned out.

As I say there is a pretty strong correlation in the groupings. Pick 5 and your winner has a decent chance of falling into top groupings. But then last night I said I'd take a top 5 and let someone else wear the bulls-eye.

A side note, this is what explains the phenomenon of one or more of the top two seeds in each tournament always takes a bath in the tourney but quite often a one or two seed makes it all the way. Picking the winner is very difficult. Picking a group containing the winner is a bit more manageable.

 

[Alumni Gym]

I'm not going to play games with your mockery of the language. If you want to do stupid stuff like that, I'll say that being ranked below number 1 gives you a better chance of winning (the field versus the actual ranking). But that would be really stupid like saying the PREseason poll is an official in season poll. If you really believe that, compare the numbers between the poll before the first poll and the poll before the last poll.

About the only thing you can say is that the PREseason ranking is not totally random. Heck last year was one of the strongest PREseason commits by oddsmakers ever. We all know how that turned out.

As I say there is a pretty strong correlation in the groupings. Pick 5 and your winner has a decent chance of falling into top groupings. But then last night I said I'd take a top 5 and let someone else wear the bulls-eye.

A side note, this is what explains the phenomenon of one or more of the top two seeds in each tournament always takes a bath in the tourney but quite often a one or two seed makes it all the way. Picking the winner is very difficult. Picking a group containing the winner is a bit more manageable.

Well, the NCAA counts it as an official poll, as does every college basketball historical publication or online site. Fact is, the #1 ranked team to start the season has been proven to have a higher chance of winning the NCAA Championship than any other ranking does. You can argue with this all you want, but it's fact.

 

[BostonCat2001]

Well, if you want to think that the FIRST OFFICIAL POLL #1 team doesn't stand the overall highest chance of winning the NCAA Championship, then you might want to look at the overall statistics. But you won't, and I can't make you. Go Big Blue!

the damage is done...he is committed to his stupidity.

 

[kybassfan]

Well, the NCAA counts it as an official poll, as does every college basketball historical publication or online site. Fact is, the #1 ranked team to start the season has been proven to have a higher chance of winning the NCAA Championship than any other ranking does. You can argue with this all you want, but it's fact.

Where does the NCAA do that? The only polls they use are the ones at the ends of the season for seeding.

 

[ganner918]

Preseason rankings really don't mean nothing.

This isn't true. Pre-season ranking is as successful at picking tournament game winners as is just picking the higher seed. And teams that are underseeded compared to their preseason ranking tend to overperform relative to their seed.

 

[Alumni Gym]

Where does the NCAA do that? The only polls they use are the ones at the ends of the season for seeding.

Look at the official NCAA statistics. It lists every total week in the AP Poll. So does UK. Research is your friend. You might want to check out either site. Total weeks ranked in the AP Poll is an official NCAA statistic, and yes, the first poll is official and counts (and has been proven to produce the most NCAA Champions over the years).

Not sure why you keep arguing this.

 

[kybassfan]

Look at the official NCAA statistics. It lists every total week in the AP Poll. So does UK. Research is your friend. You might want to check out either site. Total weeks ranked in the AP Poll is an official NCAA statistic, and yes, the first poll is official and counts (and has been proven to produce the most NCAA Champions over the years).

Not sure why you keep arguing this.

Pre = Before. End of story. You'll have to take that up with Mr. Webster.

And maybe you can show me where the BCS is based on PREseason rankings? If not, I wonder why particularly if they are SO fabulous for predicting seeds? I mean, we could just skip the season and play the tourney.

Get real. The PREseason ranking are nothing but fan candy. You are the ultimate proof of that.

 

[sound defect]

I love how people would have given their firstborn to have a preseason #1 ranking or #1 class during the last years of Tubby or the Billy Clyde disaster. Now everyone says it doesn't matter. I want to be #1 at everything in life, I guess a lot of don't mind being losers in life, but I do.

 

[Alumni Gym]

Pre = Before. End of story. You'll have to take that up with Mr. Webster.

And maybe you can show me where the BCS is based on PREseason rankings? If not, I wonder why particularly if they are SO fabulous for predicting seeds? I mean, we could just skip the season and play the tourney.

Get real. The PREseason ranking are nothing but fan candy. You are the ultimate proof of that.

It official, buddy, as it's the FIRST POLL. It's recorded as an official NCAA statistic that both the NCAA and UK lists in their record books, as do online services, and many historical publications on college basketball. Take your argument up with all of them.

Once again, use some FACTS before you respond. Your opinion is fine, but the facts behind it don't cut the mustard. Lets get this straight, two things:

(1) The #1 ranked team at the start of the season has won the NCAA Championship at a higher percentage than any other rank.

(2) Total weeks ranked at #1 is an official statistic for both the NCAA and UK. And yes, this FIRST POLL (which is what it is) counts toward those statistics.

 

[Orange Soda King]

No Briscoe duh! I don't know, but feel that's who he was referring to.

...I was kidding. It's a reference to when someone said Humphries will take Skal's starting job midseason.

 

[kybassfan]

It official, buddy, as it's the FIRST POLL. It's recorded as an official NCAA statistic that both the NCAA and UK lists in their record books, as do online services, and many historical publications on college basketball. Take your argument up with all of them.

Once again, use some FACTS before you respond. Your opinion is fine, but the facts behind it don't cut the mustard. Lets get this straight, two things:

(1) The #1 ranked team at the start of the season has won the NCAA Championship at a higher percentage than any other rank.

(2) Total weeks ranked at #1 is an official statistic for both the NCAA and UK. And yes, this FIRST POLL (which is what it is) counts toward those statistics.

LOL! And they use this how? I guess we should just cancel the season since we not #1 on Scouts? Why waste the gas? After all, these PREseason polls are indisputable. NOT!!

Pre = Before. Official for what? I wouldn't be surprised that the NCAA sanctions an official pooper scooper too. That doesn't make it important.

Dude, a list on a web site doesn't change crap!! It is a poll concocted before the season starts and before any games are played. The NCAA does not use it in any meaningful way. It is not used in seeding. It is not used in the BCS. It is not used in tournament travel or to resolve any matter of import within the basketball framework hosted by the NCAA. It is nothing but fan candy for guys such as yourself to blow out of proportion. To that end, it clearly achieves its goal.

Why?

I guess if the doc told you he was going to cut off a body part based on a test with a 75% false positive rate, you'd let him? On second thought, you probably would, especially if the NCAA wrote it down on a sticky note. As a means of inference for anything meaningful, no professional body would adopt such a poor standard of reference or indication (which, by the way, is the reason the NCAA does NOT use it).

I get it. You like the ESPN hype and I'm sure you worship the guys on SportsCenter. You love what all the talking heads tell you to believe. Knock yourself out. Buy the t-shirt. Get the movie. However, I can speak English. My knowledge of the math behind the stats is NOT casual and I fully understand the lack of value in that preseason sort. I do not agree with you and I will never agree with you on this. You are utterly and completely wrong. I fully support your right to indulge your fantasy, however. Enjoy the hype.

 

[Alumni Gym]

LOL! And they use this how? I guess we should just cancel the season since we not #1 on Scouts? Why waste the gas? After all, these PREseason polls are indisputable. NOT!!

Pre = Before. Official for what? I wouldn't be surprised that the NCAA sanctions an official pooper scooper too. That doesn't make it important.

Dude, a list on a web site doesn't change crap!! It is a poll concocted before the season starts and before any games are played. The NCAA does not use it in any meaningful way. It is not used in seeding. It is not used in the BCS. It is not used in tournament travel or to resolve any matter of import within the basketball framework hosted by the NCAA. It is nothing but fan candy for guys such as yourself to blow out of proportion. To that end, it clearly achieves its goal.

Why?

I guess if the doc told you he was going to cut off a body part based on a test with a 75% false positive rate, you'd let him? On second thought, you probably would, especially if the NCAA wrote it down on a sticky note. As a means of inference for anything meaningful, no professional body would adopt such a poor standard of reference or indication (which, by the way, is the reason the NCAA does NOT use it).

I get it. You like the ESPN hype and I'm sure you worship the guys on SportsCenter. You love what all the talking heads tell you to believe. Knock yourself out. Buy the t-shirt. Get the movie. However, I can speak English. My knowledge of the math behind the stats is NOT casual and I fully understand the lack of value in that preseason sort. I do not agree with you and I will never agree with you on this. You are utterly and completely wrong. I fully support your right to indulge your fantasy, however. Enjoy the hype.

Both the NCAA and UK DO use it. Try doing some research. It's considered the first poll of the season. And yes, the #1 team in the first poll has done damn well in the NCAA Tournament. In fact, better than anyone else.

It's funny how you can't refute anything I said with actual FACTS. I used FACTS and the only thing you have used so far was conjecture. This is unlike you. And you if want to talk about ESPN's uninformed opinion, that's just fine with me, but until you present some FACTS that actually support your opinion in this debate, then you are continuing to make yourself look like a stubborn fool. And no, I don't think you are, not by any means. You're a great Kentucky fan and one of the best posters here. It's just that the statistics do not back up your viewpoint. Say I'm wrong all you like, but at the end of the day, the FACTS make you wrong. Nothing wrong with being wrong. The only thing wrong is not admitting it.

 

[kybassfan]

Both the NCAA and UK DO use it. Try doing some research. It's considered the first poll of the season. And yes, the #1 team in the first poll has done damn well in the NCAA Tournament. In fact, better than anyone else.

It's funny how you can't refute anything I said with actual FACTS. I used FACTS and the only thing you have used so far was conjecture. This is unlike you. And you if want to talk about ESPN's uninformed opinion, that's just fine with me, but until you present some FACTS that actually support your opinion in this debate, then you are continuing to make yourself look like a stubborn fool. And no, I don't think you are, not by any means. You're a great Kentucky fan and one of the best posters here. It's just that the statistics do not back up your viewpoint. Say I'm wrong all you like, but at the end of the day, the FACTS make you wrong. Nothing wrong with being wrong. The only thing wrong is not admitting it.

I give up. You are correct. The first pre-season, pardon me, most imperial and official poll is out. We are not ranked first. Season over. Call Calipari and Barnhart for me and have them cancel. I'm too distraught. We're dead in the water and haven't even held a practice yet. This is horrible. Worse than Wisconsin.

I have one request. Please, please, PLEASE tell me you are not in the medical or aviation fields of research? They are not ready for you as I know I am not. I have dozens of hours of college mathematics (nearly 5 dozen actually and that's not even my professional field), but I am not sufficiently trained and lack the intelligence and wisdom to understand these higher levels of statistics that make the pre-season poll so amazing.

As I grovel before your brilliance. Could you explain why this first official golden poll isn't used in the seeding? I've tried. I don't understand. I'm ashamed. I'm so lacking, I can't find where it is used at all in any meaningful way. All those hours of study wasted. Season's gone already.

Alumni Gym, help us!!

 

[Lovebaskelball]

Top 5 ranking is all that is needed.

Preseason and Champion

1979 - Duke - Michigan State #3
1980 - Indiana - Louisville #10
1981 - Kentucky - Indiana #5
1982 - UNC - UNC #1
1983 - Virginia - NC State #16
1984 - UNC - Georgetown #4
1985 - Georgetown - Villanova NR
1986 - Georgia Tech - Louisville #9
1987 - UNC - Indiana #3
1988 - Syracuse - Kansas #7
1989 - Duke - Michigan #3
1990 - UNLV - UNLV #1
1991 - UNLV - Duke #6
1992 - Duke - Duke #1
1993 - Michigan - UNC #7
1994 - UNC - Arkansas #3
1995 - Arkansas - UCLA #6
1996 - UK - UK #1
1997 - Cincinnati - Arizona #19
1998 - Arizona - UK #8
1999 - Duke - UCONN #2
2000 - UCONN - Michigan State #3
2001 - Arizona - Duke #2
2002 - Duke - Maryland #2
2003 - Arizona - Syracuse NR
2004 - UCONN -UCONN #1
2005 - Kansas - UNC #4
2006 - Duke - Florida NR
2007 - Florida - Florida #1
2008 - UNC - Kansas #4
2009 - UNC - UNC #1
2010 - Kansas - Duke #9
2011 - Duke - UCONN #39
2012 - UNC - UK #2
2013 - Indiana - Louisville #2
2014 - UK - UCONN #18
2015 - UK - Duke #4

 

[Alumni Gym]

I give up. You are correct. The first pre-season, pardon me, most imperial and official poll is out. We are not ranked first. Season over. Call Calipari and Barnhart for me and have them cancel. I'm too distraught. We're dead in the water and haven't even held a practice yet. This is horrible. Worse than Wisconsin.

I have one request. Please, please, PLEASE tell me you are not in the medical or aviation fields of research? They are not ready for you as I know I am not. I have dozens of hours of college mathematics (nearly 5 dozen actually and that's not even my professional field), but I am not sufficiently trained and lack the intelligence and wisdom to understand these higher levels of statistics that make the pre-season poll so amazing.

As I grovel before your brilliance. Could you explain why this first official golden poll isn't used in the seeding? I've tried. I don't understand. I'm ashamed. I'm so lacking, I can't find where it is used at all in any meaningful way. All those hours of study wasted. Season's gone already.

Alumni Gym, help us!!

Once again, you cannot admit when you are wrong, and instead, you deal in sarcasm and conjecture. If you have facts to prove me wrong, then state them. It's that simple. No more song and dance, no more dancing around trying to be funny. State your facts.

Hell, the first AP Poll has NOT even been released yet anyway. In fact, it's still a full month or so from being released. Once again, check simple facts before you post. There, I just helped you yet again on the dire need in your life to consume the act of fact-checking. You can thank me with a bottle of Old Rip Van Winkle (make it the 20 year old variety). A Ramsey's burger would be nice, too.

Peace and Go Big Blue.

 

[kybassfan]

Once again, you cannot admit when you are wrong, and instead, you deal in sarcasm and conjecture. If you have facts to prove me wrong, then state them. It's that simple. No more song and dance, no more dancing around trying to be funny. State your facts.

Hell, the first AP Poll has NOT even been released yet anyway. In fact, it's still a full month or so from being released. Once again, check simple facts before you post. There, I just helped you yet again on the dire need in your life to consume the act of fact-checking. You can thank me with a bottle of Old Rip Van Winkle (make it the 20 year old variety). A Ramsey's burger would be nice, too.

Peace and Go Big Blue.

See, I learn from the great one. There are pre-season polls but then there are anointed pre-season polls. I am unworthy.

I checked your "facts". God, what comedy.

By the way, if the doc ever tells you have a bad PSA and is carrying a knife, if you really believe what you are saying, let him operate on the spot. Its exactly the same mathematical theory. I know I'm wasting my time, but in that circumstance, please don't practice what you preach. Get a second opinion.

You remind me of a former student that nearly got physical arguing over whether a baseball continued accelerating after the ball left the pitcher's hand (It does not). How he ever got into graduate school, I have no idea. I conceded the argument and thanked him for helping me understand why the pitcher's mound was not further from the plate and what a safety issue that would cause. I'm done with you. Ignore for you. My third one in total.

 

[Alumni Gym]

See, I learn from the great one. There are pre-season polls but then there are anointed pre-season polls. I am unworthy.

I checked your "facts". God, what comedy.

By the way, if the doc ever tells you have a bad PSA and is carrying a knife, if you really believe what you are saying, let him operate on the spot. Its exactly the same mathematical theory. I know I'm wasting my time, but in that circumstance, please don't practice what you preach. Get a second opinion.

You remind me of a former student that nearly got physical arguing over whether a baseball continued accelerating after the ball left the pitcher's hand (It does not). How he ever got into graduate school, I have no idea. I conceded the argument and thanked him for helping me understand why the pitcher's mound was not further from the plate and what a safety issue that would cause. I'm done with you. Ignore for you. My third one in total.

I'd like to know what "facts" you checked. You know, like what the results were and where you got them. You know, that little thing about weeks being ranked in the AP Poll as being an official NCAA statistic (it is). I'd also like your source that tells us any other rank in the first AP Poll is more likely to win the NCAA Championship than the #1 ranked team (there's not). Since you have done all this tireless research, these simple requests should be no problem. But no, you just took your ball and went home. This oftens happens when people are frustrated when they are proven wrong.

 

[rabidcatfan]

No. Maryland or UNC will get the preseason #1 ranking. I think we come in somewhere around #3 or #4 preseason.

That being said, I already thought we had the nations #1 backcourt with Ulis, Briscoe, Murray, Mulder, Matthews, and Hawkins. Now I think we have a top 10 backcourt with Skal, Poy, Lee, Willis, Humphries, and Wynyard.

 

[Hoskins91]

We need someone to come through and set people straight about statistical vs practical significance.

 

[Hjack]

Yahoo reporting Murray on campus and UK #1 Recruiting Class

 

[mailman85]

kybassfan and alumnigym I just want to say thanks for the entertainment, I understand both of your all's argument but gotta say I'm gonna have to side with kybassfan on this one.