Prior to yesterday's road game at MS St, I posted a comment addressing the "fork in the road" this weekend for our football team. Now that we are 2-2, this comment is a follow up to that line of thought. All kinds of posters offer their comments on this board. Some were never in Mark Stoops' corner in the first place, and will inevitably default to their negative persona when given that opportunity. Others basically want UK to be successful, but can't appreciate the enormity of the task and don't have the necessary patience to stay positive during challenging weeks. And some just want a patient, cold-blooded, analytical discussion about the foundation and projection curve for our football program. I am in this final group, and that is the target audience for this post.
I do not know what our final record will be. I don't know if we will beat South Carolina in Columbia, Tennessee in Lexington, or Vandy in Nashville. Time will answer those questions. I would like to discuss the overall direction of our football program from a strategic point of view.
All football teams have strengths and weaknesses. The current weaknesses of our football team are the QB and the secondary. That does not mean the QB and secondary will be our team's weaknesses a month from now. Nobody knows that. But there are some clues.
QB- TW and Sawyer Smith are juniors. TW made mistakes and threw some picks in 2018. But TW was surrounded by veterans in 2018, including an All American RG and the most productive RB in UK history. By the time TW was injured two weeks ago, there had been an obvious improvement in his efficiency and mastery of our play book.
But this is Sawyer Smith's team now. Smith has practiced with our first team offense for two weeks and been with the team for only seven weeks. How long will it take Smith to master Eddie Gran's offense? Put another way, will it be Sawyer Smith's team a year from now? Or will TW recapture the starting job when he is healthy again? TW will miss spring practice. That gives a big advantage to Smith.
But in the meantime, Smith is missing opportunities to win football games. When we drill down to facts, his three turnovers cost us last week's UF game. Yesterday, Smith threw a pick-six to MS St LB Willie Gay in the first quarter. That mistake killed an early UK drive and put our football team on its heels. We never recovered. There is nothing wrong with Smith's courage. He has guts. His arm strength is good enough, unless his throwing shoulder is injured. (God help us if it is.) Does Smith have the quick judgment, great vision of the whole field, and leadership ability to become a successful SEC QB? We might not know the answer for another month. But if he does have that level of talent, how long will it be before he gets the big turnovers under control? There is no way to know, but our 2019 football season directly depends on that now.
RB- All will return in 2020. Yesterday proved a lot of people were wrong about AJ Rose last week. They can eat crow now or postpone the inevitable. Kavosiey Smoke did not have a good game yesterday, but he is a solid young RB. Once the current commits are on the roster, depth will be impressive. None of these guys are Benny Snell, but RB will not be a team weakness.
WR- Ahmad Wagner is the only senior. Wagner and Josh Ali are becoming impact receivers. Lynn Bowden needs to get his head straight and stop dropping passes, but is the best athlete on our offense. Bowden might leave early, but not unless he is projected as a significant draft choice. Younger receivers like Allen Dailey and Bryce Oliver are ready to step up. DeMarcus Harris and Tae Tae Crumes will be ready to contribute in 2020. The four current commits are the best group we have brought on board in years.
TE- All will be back in 2020. Rigg is a great blocker who catches passes in traffic. Upshaw is an emerging star who can get downfield into the seams. Bates hasn't played much yet, but has talent. Ognenovic looks like a solid prospect.
OL- Stenberg and Wolfe are the only seniors. Four starters will return in 2020. Watkins, Dotson, Horsey, Lewis, Wilson, Cox, and Pope look like solid young players. The three current commits are highly recruited prospects with impressive offer sheets.
DL- Carter, Taylor, and Hoskins are the only seniors. Bohanna is still learning how to prepare and keep himself in shape, so I don't believe he will leave early. Looney, Abadi-Fitzgerald, Hawkins, Mahone, and McCall are coming along nicely. Gibson and Butler are solid prospects. The three current commits are the best DL class Stoops has recruited so far. Our DL should be a team strength for years to come.
LB- Kash Daniel is the only senior. Paschal and Square are having impact seasons. Oats and Wright look like future stars. The roster is populated by lots of talented, athletic young LBs, so competition will be intense for the foreseeable future. Our LBs will be another team strength.
DB- Jordan Griffin is the only senior. Injured safety Davonte Robinson will be back in 2020. There is no shortage of SEC talent in our secondary. Corker, Ajian, and Brown look like future stars. Douglass could be better than all of them. It's a question of gaining experience. There are three solid commitments, but the best may be yet to come in the recruiting class.
This is not a wasted season. IMO, a minor bowl remains likely. That outcome will bitterly disappoint some fans, but it can't be helped. Our offense suddenly lost its leader two weeks ago. Our new QB will need some time to work with our first team offense in practice and get control of his tendency to throw into double coverages. Working through progressions and finding open receivers does not always come easily or happen right away for some QBs. This will frustrate and anger some of our fans. But it isn't the fault of our coaches, and all the public pontification and misplaced anger in the world will not change this reality. And the reality is that we have a backup QB and an inexperienced secondary that must continue to learn how to win SEC games. We aren't there yet. Nothing can be accomplished by playing the blame game. That just pisses people off. But it's always darkest before the dawn.
Here is the bigger picture. Nine offensive starters, seven defensive starters, and the SEC's best punter will return in 2020 along with more quality depth at almost every position. The current recruiting class appears to be the best of the Stoops era. The overall upward direction of Mark Stoops' football program is intact.
Our coaches and players still deserve your support. They just beat PA St in the Citrus Bowl, and they are working hard now to overcome a season-ending injury to our starting QB. It is time to appreciate the bigger picture and circle the wagons.