way too early minute & stat projections

[JonathanW]

I know, I know, we don't even know who the last 2-4 players will be.
This is formatted better in Excel, but formatting doesn't carry over in cut/paste. And I can't figure out how to insert an image from my laptop on here.
And I do not expect us to score 98/gm, Probably will be more like 88-90. There are several guys I'd like to give more minutes too. And of course, depending on how many and who those last spots go to, will affect the minutes for others too.

		Yr	Pos	Min	c	pf	sf	2g	pg	Pts	Reb	Ast	Blk
Garrison	6'11	3	C	22	22					8	5	2	1
(tbd)			PF	24	8	16				11	6	3	1
Oweh	6'5	4	SG/SF	26			6	20		16	4	1
Johnson	6'4	1	G	20				12	8	11	3	2
Lowe	6'3	3	PG	20					20	9	3	4
Moreno	7'0	1	C	10	10					4	3	1	1
Dioubate	6'7	3	PF	16		16				7	6	1
K.Williams	6'8	2	F	17		4	13			8	3	1	1
Noah	6'7	2	F	4		4				2	1
Chandler	6'5	2	SG/SF	10			10			4	1	1
(tbd)			SG/SF	18			11	7		10	2	1
Perry	6'1	2	G	1				1		1
Lewis	6'3	1	G	12					12	4	1	2
				200​	40​	40​	40​	40​	40​	95​	38​	19​	4​

 

[Smashcat]

Not a bad start but I think Lewis and Chandler get more mins.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

Gonna be fascinating to see how you keep all these players happy. NIl and money help thoigh as it's more like a professional team now.

 

[docholiday51]

Chandler will play more than 10 minutes a game (SF/2G)
Johnson won't get 22 min a game
Moreno will get more than 10 min per game
Lewis may get more run than you think

Just my 2 cents worth at this point. I think we get at least 1 game changer(in terms of minutes)
before it is all said and done

 

[BleedBlue13]

Everyone wants 2 pf another center and 1 more shooter. I do as well but it’s not realistic to have 12-14 players that need minutes.

 

[KySportsfan74]

I know, I know, we don't even know who the last 2-4 players will be.
This is formatted better in Excel, but formatting doesn't carry over in cut/paste. And I can't figure out how to insert an image from my laptop on here.
And I do not expect us to score 98/gm, Probably will be more like 88-90. There are several guys I'd like to give more minutes too. And of course, depending on how many and who those last spots go to, will affect the minutes for others too.

		Yr	Pos	Min	c	pf	sf	2g	pg	Pts	Reb	Ast	Blk
Garrison	6'11	3	C	22	22					10	5	2	1
(tbd)			PF	24	6	18				12	6	3	1
Oweh	6'5	4	SG/SF	26			6	20		16	4	1
Johnson	6'4	1	G	22				14	8	12	3	2
Lowe	6'3	3	PG	22					22	10	3	4
Moreno	7'0	1	C	10	10					4	3	1	1
(tbd)			PF	16	2	14				7	4	1
K.Williams	6'8	2	F	17		4	13			8	3	1	1
Noah	6'7	2	F	4		4				2	1
Chandler	6'5	2	SG/SF	10			10			4	1	1
(tbd)			SG/SF	16			11	5		8	2	1
Perry	6'1	2	G	1				1		1
Lewis	6'3	1	G	10					10	4	1	2
				200​	40​	40​	40​	40​	40​	98​	36​	19​	4​

I think those minutes are way too low for Chandler. If he only plays 10 minutes a game next year then he has not progressed at all.

 

[JonathanW]

I think those minutes are way too low for Chandler. If he only plays 10 minutes a game next year then he has not progressed at all.

I'd like to give him and Noah more, I think both will be capable of contributing more. But there are only 200 minutes to divide up. So who do you propose taking them from? The easy answer may be "(tbd)" but then what transfer is coming here for >10mpg, probably not any. Now if we only add 1 PF, instead of 2, then I think Chandler and Noah could each add about 6min to 16 & 10 respectively, maybe Williams get a couple more.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Looking at this puts it in perspective a little.

A superstar wing shooter/scorer might look at our depth and decide they don’t want to only play 20 minutes because he knows Pope will want to play guys like Johnson and Chandler and Williams some minutes and while you might be confident you can beat them out for a starting spot, they are still going to get minutes.

Also, the star wing we are so desperate for also knows he is second fiddle to Oweh on the wing.

Now, on the other hand, we should have PFs dying to come here. There’s a gaping hole there to fill.

But those wanting another Center, I understand concerns about Garrison and Moreno, but it’s not realistic to add another Center and split 40 minutes three ways. Just not enough minutes to go around.

We add another Center, that probably means Pope is moving Garrison to PF.

Don’t see enough minutes inside to add a stud PF and a stud C. Could be wrong, but I don’t see enough minutes at the 4/5 to go around.

 

[BleedBlue13]

Been saying this for weeks, fans expecting more than 2-3 more I’d love to see the math.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Been saying this for weeks, fans expecting more than 2-3 more I’d love to see the math.

If you look at it logically, we really only have room for the two PFs and the other wing would probably need to be a guy on the Perry and Noah level that wouldn’t expect to play much.

We’ve got a gaping hole at PF, but everywhere else, we look pretty stacked.

So if Pope is wanting a guy like Yates or Pierre on the perimeter, he must not expect one of the wings to play much or he is planning on a guy like Kam Williams to get his minutes as a small ball 4 and we are only going to sign one more PF.

Or maybe Williams is a developmental piece and he isn’t planning on playing much this year?

It’s really hard to wrap my head around how Pope is going to keep everyone happy with all these mouths to feed.

And he’s trying to add another wing, when there’s already a logjam there.

 

[BleedBlue13]

It will be interesting if we land Alvaro soon and we still get reports of contact with players. To me Pierre/Yates just means Jasper would start out like Acaden in a 10-15 mpg role and that has to be the plan or we wouldn’t be getting so involved with them. C and PF is what interests me the most because of how close we came to Gwath.

 

[blue cincy]

I will just wait to see who is on the team. Then make up some way too early list with all the players and such.

Williams almost averaged 10 a game last year and will not make a sophomore jump? He will be worse off this coming year with better teammates? When we hear reports from people watching the team in scrimmages and such we will be able to maybe project more.

Heck who knows who UK gets at this point or who ends up in the portal at this point. Plus International players.

 

[blue cincy]

Been saying this for weeks, fans expecting more than 2-3 more I’d love to see the math.

15 scholarships. Pope wanted to fill all last year. He will try to do again this year. I know if Pope could have gotten 1 more combo guard last year he would have took the guy. I say we end up with at least 13 is not all 15 on the team.

 

[ukfan1622]

I also think Chandler will demand minutes next year. I'd love to see the numbers on players that took the 2 year Mormon missions but players that miss a full year due to injury usually don't get back to their peak until the 2nd year back. The way Chandler came on late in the year makes me feel like he'll take a jump next year. I'm thinking he'll be a little bouncier and stronger with an improved handle.

 

[jmw23712]

Chandler has incredible athleticism (he jumped over coach Pope and his wife), a high motor, and unlimited range from 3. If he’s only playing 10 mins a game, just go ahead and send us the trophy.

 

[WallMashKyBall]

Pope played two freshman on the floor at a time after Butler's injury with mixed results and we got sent home from SEC tourney early. By the NCAA tourney he had realized to only have one Freshman on the floor at a time. It will be curious to see if our 3 incoming Freshman are more like Cal's freshman or last year's Pope Freshman. I would hope they are more like Cal's and can contribute significantly.

 

[JonathanW]

I will just wait to see who is on the team. Then make up some way too early list with all the players and such.

Williams almost averaged 10 a game last year and will not make a sophomore jump? He will be worse off this coming year with better teammates? When we hear reports from people watching the team in scrimmages and such we will be able to maybe project more.

Heck who knows who UK gets at this point or who ends up in the portal at this point. Plus International players.

My prediction is for Williams to be better than last year, but he won’t play as much being on a much better team, thus will score less while be better.

 

[blue cincy]

My prediction is for Williams to be better than last year, but he won’t play as much being on a much better team, thus will score less while be better.

I cannot see him play too many less minutes. He has a motor, crashes the boards, plays with purpose. I figure he is about a 22 minute a game guy in Popes system and those 22 minutes will offer more chances to score and get his. Unless we pick up another guy that is much better. right now I think he is the best 3 or small ball 4 we have on the team. I do not include Oweh (huge fan of Oweh), because he plays the 2 more than the 3. He really hardly ever had to play the 3 last year.

 

[BleedBlue13]

Pope played two freshman on the floor at a time after Butler's injury with mixed results and we got sent home from SEC tourney early. By the NCAA tourney he had realized to only have one Freshman on the floor at a time. It will be curious to see if our 3 incoming Freshman are more like Cal's freshman or last year's Pope Freshman. I would hope they are more like Cal's and can contribute significantly.

You asking if the 3 top 30 freshmen are better than Noah and Perry?

 

[JonathanW]

Pope played two freshman on the floor at a time after Butler's injury with mixed results and we got sent home from SEC tourney early. By the NCAA tourney he had realized to only have one Freshman on the floor at a time. It will be curious to see if our 3 incoming Freshman are more like Cal's freshman or last year's Pope Freshman. I would hope they are more like Cal's and can contribute significantly.

It will be neither, somewhere in between. Those 3 FR this year at least 2 weren’t expected to play much and only did due to injuries. Neither were top 50, and while the 3rd was top 50 he hadn’t played in 2 years.
The 3 next year are all top 30 FR. The portal almost forces you to play decent players some (10+min). I think only 1 has much chance st playing 1/2 the game. So yeah they’ll play more than this year FR but not as much as Cal would have played them.

 

[JonathanW]

Dioubate added

 

[PopesReignOverCardinals]

I don't understand why anybody would think that Williams would get more minutes than Chandler at this point.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Dioubate added

So you have Dioubate as the PF2.

You thinking we still add Folgueiras, maybe as the starter?

I am hoping so.

 

[JonathanW]

So you have Dioubate as the PF2.

You thinking we still add Folgueiras, maybe as the starter?

I am hoping so.

That's my hope.
If Dioubate is the PF1, that's disappointing. But I love his energy coming off the bench.
Maybe he does start, but I think the other guy (not known yet) may get more minutes.

 

[JonathanW]

I don't understand why anybody would think that Williams would get more minutes than Chandler at this point.

Maybe I'm wrong.
But he is known to be a good defender. Chandler was better than Robinson at defense, but not a good defender.
He also was a better 3pt shooter than Chandler, although the final 4-6 weeks maybe they were even.
Chandler does have the advantage of knowing what Pope wants more.
Maybe those minutes are more even, IDK. Convince me why.

 

[bucsrule8872]

That's my hope.
If Dioubate is the PF1, that's disappointing. But I love his energy coming off the bench.
Maybe he does start, but I think the other guy (not known yet) may get more minutes.

If we don’t add another 4, do you think Williams and Noah would play some 4?

If not, how do you see the rotation going at the 4?

 

[Eagles_Ball]

I think those minutes are way too low for Chandler. If he only plays 10 minutes a game next year then he has not progressed at all.

He’s behind a lot of guys on the roster. Lowe, Johnson, Lewis, Oweh, and Williams are all likely in front of him. That’s five guys for three spots likely ahead of him.

 

[Eagles_Ball]

Chandler has incredible athleticism (he jumped over coach Pope and his wife), a high motor, and unlimited range from 3. If he’s only playing 10 mins a game, just go ahead and send us the trophy.

Goodness man. Pump the brakes. He was barely playable last year. He didn’t play for two years. It’s just not that damned easy. Somewhere between 10 and 15 mins/game is probably a good spot for him. Some of you need to realize just how ridiculously hard it is to be good at this level.

 

[Eagles_Ball]

I don't understand why anybody would think that Williams would get more minutes than Chandler at this point.

Because he’s better?

 

[Eagles_Ball]

If we don’t add another 4, do you think Williams and Noah would play some 4?

If not, how do you see the rotation going at the 4?

Williams for sure. His ability to defend and rebound against SEC bigs will be key. He’s certainly got the peripherals to do it. He’s the prototype stretch 4 for the Zoom on offense. Put it this way, I think you’ll see a lot more of Kam and or Noah at the 4 than you would Garrison.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Williams for sure. His ability to defend and rebound against SEC bigs will be key. He’s certainly got the peripherals to do it. He’s the prototype stretch 4 for the Zoom on offense. Put it this way, I think you’ll see a lot more of Kam and or Noah at the 4 than you would Garrison.

Do you think Williams is strong/physical enough to defend the 4 spot in the SEC?

 

[JonathanW]

Williams for sure. His ability to defend and rebound against SEC bigs will be key. He’s certainly got the peripherals to do it. He’s the prototype stretch 4 for the Zoom on offense. Put it this way, I think you’ll see a lot more of Kam and or Noah at the 4 than you would Garrison.

You may be overstating it a bit. Williams got only 4.5 reb. That is 4.2 reb per30min. That's not good at PF, not even at SF, that is only good for a Guard.

 

[JonathanW]

Do you think Williams is strong/physical enough to defend the 4 spot in the SEC?

That is a concern. Just 190lb. Now this summer we could get him up to 200-205. That's still a bit lean.

 

[JonathanW]

If we don’t add another 4, do you think Williams and Noah would play some 4?

If not, how do you see the rotation going at the 4?

Ugh... if we don't add a 4 or a 5, then I guess it will be by committee (Williams, Noah, Dioubate), probably something like 10/10/20, then Williams also getting some (8-10) at the 3.

 

[runt#69]

So you have Dioubate as the PF2.

You thinking we still add Folgueiras, maybe as the starter?

I am hoping so.

yes

 

[PopesReignOverCardinals]

Because he’s better?

Based on what? He earned minutes on a meh team that mostly played against other meh teams. A year ago, he was just a 3-star recruit rated lower than Trent Noah on the 247 Composite. He was the 5th highest scorer on his meh team. His 3PT% looks good on paper for that one season, but is that what he did in high school too? The Tulane fans disagree with you on his ability to play defense at higher competition levels and his coach was critical about his need to be more aggressive. I just don't understand why anybody would think that he is chalked up for more minutes than senior Almonor had this past season? He has done nothing to demonstrate that he is "better" than Chandler, so why would you make that assumption given their different scenarios?

 

[PopesReignOverCardinals]

Maybe I'm wrong.
But he is known to be a good defender. Chandler was better than Robinson at defense, but not a good defender.
He also was a better 3pt shooter than Chandler, although the final 4-6 weeks maybe they were even.
Chandler does have the advantage of knowing what Pope wants more.
Maybe those minutes are more even, IDK. Convince me why.

Is he really known to be a good defender, or is that just recruiting hype because he has long arms as someone who is that tall? Is there any data that supports that? I'm genuinely curious.

In addition to what I said above, there is recruiting pedigree disparity between the two. I understand that's not everything and people can easily outdevelop that ranking, but it is something to consider. Chandler was a Top 35 prospect in his class and he was expected to be shaking off the rust this past season. Williams was #178 in that composite. Noah was #109. Perry was #78. Why the disparity? I just don't believe that Williams did enough in his freshman year at Tulane to jump all these guys. All of these guys would have put up better numbers if they played at Tulane too.

The other thing to consider is that Williams will most likely be competing against Oweh, a senior and presumptive team leader, for minutes. Chandler on the other hand will most likely be competing against Jasper Johnson, a freshman. In age, Chandler will be a senior and he is very mature. He also appears to have a stronger body considering that he weighs more at a shorter height. When Oweh isn't on the floor, I think that we could easily see a Lowe, Johnson, and Chandler rotation on the floor at the same time, so that would enable us to extend the minutes out between Johnson and Chandler and not have them cannibalizing minutes solely at the 2.

And as you said, Chandler is Pope's guy. He has been committed to him for the long haul. He has the talent, so it's not just a loyalty thing. He's a legitimate player. Next year will be his year to shine, otherwise he will probably never do anything at UK. I just don't see Pope letting that happen. At this point in time, nothing solidly points to Kam Williams coming into this team with an edge over Collin Chandler.

 

[JonathanW]

Is he really known to be a good defender, or is that just recruiting hype because he has long arms as someone who is that tall? Is there any data that supports that? I'm genuinely curious.

In addition to what I said above, there is recruiting pedigree disparity between the two. I understand that's not everything and people can easily outdevelop that ranking, but it is something to consider. Chandler was a Top 35 prospect in his class and he was expected to be shaking off the rust this past season. Williams was #178 in that composite. Noah was #109. Perry was #78. Why the disparity? I just don't believe that Williams did enough in his freshman year at Tulane to jump all these guys. All of these guys would have put up better numbers if they played at Tulane too.

The other thing to consider is that Williams will most likely be competing against Oweh, a senior and presumptive team leader, for minutes. Chandler on the other hand will most likely be competing against Jasper Johnson, a freshman. In age, Chandler will be a senior and he is very mature. He also appears to have a stronger body considering that he weighs more at a shorter height. When Oweh isn't on the floor, I think that we could easily see a Lowe, Johnson, and Chandler rotation on the floor at the same time, so that would enable us to extend the minutes out between Johnson and Chandler and not have them cannibalizing minutes solely at the 2.

And as you said, Chandler is Pope's guy. He has been committed to him for the long haul. He has the talent, so it's not just a loyalty thing. He's a legitimate player. Next year will be his year to shine, otherwise he will probably never do anything at UK. I just don't see Pope letting that happen. At this point in time, nothing solidly points to Kam Williams coming into this team with an edge over Collin Chandler.

I just know that KW averaged 1.1 blocks and 1.4 steals, both are good, and that 247 and other site said he “had very good defensive metrics “. I’m not paying one of those sites to see for myself.

As for recruiting rankings I don’t put much value in those. Over a large enough group of players, yes they can be predictive. But comparing 2 individual players, not so much.

But for 1/2 to 2/3 of the season Chandler was almost unplayable.
I will agree with one thing you said about KW, I think he needs to be more assertive, in 32mpg he averaged only 2.4 2pt shots per game.

I can understand if you think they are close. But can’t see Chandler, unless he takes a BIG leap, as better.

 

[PopesReignOverCardinals]

I just know that KW averaged 1.1 blocks and 1.4 steals, both are good, and that 247 and other site said he “had very good defensive metrics “. I’m not paying one of those sites to see for myself.

As for recruiting rankings I don’t put much value in those. Over a large enough group of players, yes they can be predictive. But comparing 2 individual players, not so much.

But for 1/2 to 2/3 of the season Chandler was almost unplayable.
I will agree with one thing you said about KW, I think he needs to be more assertive, in 32mpg he averaged only 2.4 2pt shots per game.

I can understand if you think they are close. But can’t see Chandler, unless he takes a BIG leap, as better.

If we are going to make evaluations by looking at the stats, then we have to normalize the data to a similar per minute production. Chandler played about 30% of the minutes that Williams did, and Chandler played against tougher SEC teams. If you applied Williams' minutes to Chandler, then Chandler would average over 2 steals per game. That is pretty good defensively?

We need more information about what "very good defensive metrics" are. Is that arm length? Is there some other analytical data that measured defensive stops and pressure? Look at who he got his blocks against. 26% of his blocks came in only 3 games (two vs. Rice, and once vs. Alcorn State). Smaller players? Certainly not great competition.

We expected Chandler to need time to ramp back up. He was already making that leap when he didn't have seniors blocking his playing time and that was against good SEC teams and NCAAT teams down the stretch. He had the most bench minutes at the guard position in the NCAAT, so that points toward trust in him. He just needs to been greenlit to take more shots to get in the groove to do what is expected of him. With Robinson, Butler, and Brea all gone, the opportunity is there.

 

[JonathanW]

If we are going to make evaluations by looking at the stats, then we have to normalize the data to a similar per minute production. Chandler played about 30% of the minutes that Williams did, and Chandler played against tougher SEC teams. If you applied Williams' minutes to Chandler, then Chandler would average over 2 steals per game. That is pretty good defensively?

We need more information about what "very good defensive metrics" are. Is that arm length? Is there some other analytical data that measured defensive stops and pressure? Look at who he got his blocks against. 26% of his blocks came in only 3 games (two vs. Rice, and once vs. Alcorn State). Smaller players? Certainly not great competition.

We expected Chandler to need time to ramp back up. He was already making that leap when he didn't have seniors blocking his playing time and that was against good SEC teams and NCAAT teams down the stretch. He had the most bench minutes at the guard position in the NCAAT, so that points toward trust in him. He just needs to been greenlit to take more shots to get in the groove to do what is expected of him. With Robinson, Butler, and Brea all gone, the opportunity is there.

I am a Statistician, so yes I know all about standardizing or normalizing data. I had not looked at Chandler, but yes he did have a lot of steals. So his "Stock" (steals+blocks) rate is comparable to Williams.
No, defensive metrics aren't "arm length" lol. It is using analytical data.
You make a good point about looking at individual games to see if they "carry the load", which was what I was doing when I was saying I did not want Eaglestaff, at least not as a top 8 guy. Although we still haven't added that shooter/scorer that we need. Hopefully soon!!!