Watching all the talking heads pick Tennessee

[The_Answer1313]

Better on paper what about head to head in actual games?

Depending on who you ask on this board beating someone 3 times in a row ranges from impossible to likely.

My opinion the head to heads have little bearing on what happens on Friday.

Whether UK went 0-2, 1-1 or 2-0 vs UT this season it should play very little into whether or not they could win this game.

Those games just do not matter that much in the grand scheme of things.

I mean that’s great we won them. It helped our resume. But other than that.

OP wanted to know why everyone was picking UT. There’s a reason. They are the favorite here.

 

[Blueheart32]

Right now, the betting splits say take Ky and the points, but obviously you are concerned with lines. Straight up is what matters.

 

[Bluesbrother]

Am I missing something. Why is nobody picking Kentucky to beat Tennesse after beating them twice already. I understand it is hard to beat a team 3 times but come on Vegas has Tennessee as the favorite and everyone I have watched predict this game has picked Tennessee.

I know we are playing with house money but it just doesn't seem like anyone is giving us a chance.

... seems to matter a lot to you what others are saying. It doesn't matter what they say ... it matters how Kentucky plays. Let's just tip it up and see what happens. Should be a good game.

 

[Catapult]

With Jax out they may be the slightly better team, but I think we are just a bad matchup for them. As for Bama, I'm convinced if we had been totally healthy, we win at Rupp and even possibly there considering how we played for the first 30 mins.

 

[JwUKFan11]

It may “rarely happen” in your world but factual data disputes that:

Data compiled by STATS LLC, covering a 10-year period (approximately 2008–2018), shows that in 981 instances where a team entered a third game against the same opponent with a 2-0 record in that season, the 2-0 team won the third game 710 times. This translates to a .724 winning percentage (710-271).

Now give me the numbers for how many times it happened when the underdog did it. Of course the much better teams can do it 3 times in a row, that’s not the case here.

 

[UKBlueBlood]

If Amari will try to dunk the ball instead of line drive layups toward the backboard and hope the ball ricochets through the basket, then I would feel confident about our chances. Otherwise, I think it’s a toss up.

 

[yes_takeaside]

For whatever reason, Lanier didn’t go off in either of the first two. IMO he’s the key: which way he goes, so go the Vols.

 

[twwilliams9]

Now give me the numbers for how many times it happened when the underdog did it. Of course the much better teams can do it 3 times in a row, that’s not the case here.

Bama was the underdog in the first matchup in Rupp

 

[Catfanlou]

I think a major factor in this game will be the Brea no longer has to be open to score . He can create his shots now particularly from two point range with deadly accuracy. That was not true in either game . I think because of that he scores 25 and we win by ten .

 

[Blue wood]

Already answered that one lol.

Well we won twice , so we are better. Stick the stats up your ass

 

[Rideordiewildcat]

Am I missing something. Why is nobody picking Kentucky to beat Tennesse after beating them twice already. I understand it is hard to beat a team 3 times but come on Vegas has Tennessee as the favorite and everyone I have watched predict this game has picked Tennessee.

I know we are playing with house money but it just doesn't seem like anyone is giving us a chance.

Just like Illinois

 

[Rideordiewildcat]

It’s because it la hard to beat a team 3x in 1 season

We're due. The last time we had a chance to do anything in the tourney E8 playing Aub after beating them twice and boat racing them the last one by 20+ they got us in the tourney.

Its our time.

 

[BlueSince92]

Apart from superstition and voodoo, like, “you can’t beat a team three times in one season,” and, “you can’t wear white after Labor Day,” I have seen zero indications UT can remotely hang with us in this game Friday. Much less beat us. Zero evidence they can hang with us at all, assuming none of our players have game-ending injuries.

I -have- seen 80 minutes of solid evidence we are probably going to wipe the floor with UT.

Cold, hard, solid evidence.

Maybe it’s just because I’m nerdy somehow. My dad had a reasonably illustrious career in physics, so if I’m super nerdy I guess I came by it honest.

But I’m going with the evidence.

 

[AJG-15]

TN is the Higher ranked team. We are unproven, after last 5 years with Cal, new coach and team, no continuity in results due to injuries…. So safer bet is to pick TN.

But we are Kentucky! Let’s see if we can prove them all wrong. Let’s go Cats!

 

[Cleatortoises]

Because UT is the better team lol.

Obviously.......👀

 

[IowaMuse]

This. Despite us shooting ridiculously well, we barely held them off. It took a herculean effort from us to put them away.
If we shoot average, we most likely don't win this one. Which is why I believe many pundits picking them.
We just need to go out with no fear or pressure and shoot lights out again.

I guess at what point can you say they aren’t. All of those data points still exist if Kentucky beats them a 3rd time. How many times does Kentucky have to beat them for Kentucky to be the better team? 5, 6?

Tenn has better metrics (mostly). I thinki Kentucky will prove again on Friday they are the better team.

 

[TeoJ]

So different opinions really,not facts.

 

[Jazzycat]

Just put that picture of Zeigler giving the finger to the UK symbol after beating UCLA in the locker room…that should do it😉

 

[Eccain01]

Because UT is the better team lol.

Not vs us they aren’t lol. We beat them at him AND on the road and Butler didn’t even play one of those games.

 

[villefan76]

Stop their midget point guard and we win the game.

 

[wobycat]

Regardless of who wins between uk and ut, both are looking at a tall hill to win the natty. Uk matches up very well with ut. This is not a team Kentucky can’t beat. If Kentucky, shoots well behind the arc, we will out score them even if they have a good offensive game.

 

[JwUKFan11]

Bama was the underdog in the first matchup in Rupp

Lol you still didn't answer the question

 

[Oldbluefart]

We, UK Basketball has come from very far back when compared to where we have been the last 5 years or so.
One more hurdle to get over is this thinking "can we win" compared to what Lamont said about the game.

No game is going to be easy folks at this stage of the tournament but it is no time to worry either. We belong there.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I get that Tennessee is higher ranked, better metrics, etc.

But that didn't stop the media from picking Illiniois...

 

[un4getables]

It’s because it la hard to beat a team 3x in 1 season

Proven fact that what you just said is PROVEN not to be true... I can't remember the specific stat but in the cases where a team has beaten another team two games they have won that third game over 70% of the time... It does not say we will win but the fact is that is not true a majority of the time.

 

[JasonRDunn]

We need the scoring that Butler provided in the Illinois game. If we can get scoring from four out of five positions, I think we can make a real run at it.

 

[Creed Bratton]

Because UT is the better team lol.

If only we had played them a couple of times to determine who is the better team.....

 

[The_Answer1313]

I get that Tennessee is higher ranked, better metrics, etc.

But that didn't stop the media from picking Illiniois...

This is true.

I think coming into the tournament there was a perception that since we weren't at full health, we weren't necessarily going to play to our seeding and numbers.

Despite the fact that we all know this team has already shown the ability to win big games without key players.

That's all I thought that was.

TBH yeah we were the better seed but the line was essentially even. Going into that game, Kenpom had Illinois one spot ahead of us in the rankings. So it wasn't really all that clear cut.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Not vs us they aren’t lol. We beat them at him AND on the road and Butler didn’t even play one of those games.

The best team doesn't always win. Even in two games.

I mean that would be like saying Ohio St, Georgia, Texas and Arkansas are better than us because they beat us. That's just not true in any world.

Or that since we Florida and Duke we are better than them. We aren't.

 

[_TrueBlue84_]

Tenn -4.5 at FanDuel
KenPom has it at Tenn 76 - Ky 72

I have it 80-76 Kentucky. It seems like Kenpom is counting on an off shooting night for Kentucky

 

[catlogic15]

Hit 50% threes- Win
Hit 25% threes-Lose

 

[The_Answer1313]

I have it 80-76 Kentucky. It seems like Kenpom is counting on an off shooting night for Kentucky

UT allows teams 46% from 2 and 28% from 3 on the season.

In the two games we played them, we shot 50% from 2 and 50% from 3.

If we do that again, we are probably winning the game.

 

[wkycatfan]

The game is a tossup imo, 50/50. It's who makes plays at the end.

 

[wildcatknh]

TN is the Higher ranked team. We are unproven, after last 5 years with Cal, new coach and team, no continuity in results due to injuries…. So safer bet is to pick TN.

But we are Kentucky! Let’s see if we can prove them all wrong. Let’s go Cats!

Unproven? We've tied the all-time record in the history of the NCAA for wins over top-15 AP ranked teams in a single season this year.

Guess who we play tomorrow night ... a top-15 AP ranked team.

 

[KYCAT78]

Because UT is the better team lol.

If they were the better team they would have beat us twice. UK in a close one.

 

[The_Answer1313]

If they were the better team they would have beat us twice. UK in a close one.

Because we know the best team wins 100% of the time.

But yeah I do think we win a close one.

 

[UKFBFan78]

Seth of all people picks UK.

View embedded media

Not in his bracket on ESPN

 

[THE_HOOK]

 

[katwest]

Most of the talking heads are no better at picking the winner than anyone else who keeps up with college basketball. I'm sure most all of them picked Tennessee in the other two match ups, I don't think they are picking them with complete confidence though. The pressure is on Tennessee Friday night, we know Kentucky will be ready.

 

[csrupp]

It’s because it la hard to beat a team 3x in 1 season

That myth isn’t supported by statistics. Historically, the team that won the first two, win the 3rd over 70% of the time.