Watching all the talking heads pick Tennessee

[BIG BLUE GURU]

Am I missing something. Why is nobody picking Kentucky to beat Tennesse after beating them twice already. I understand it is hard to beat a team 3 times but come on Vegas has Tennessee as the favorite and everyone I have watched predict this game has picked Tennessee.

I know we are playing with house money but it just doesn't seem like anyone is giving us a chance.

 

[BlobUK]

Didn't all the experts pick Illinois? I love it!

 

[The_Answer1313]

Because UT is the better team lol.

 

[sportspm]

I remember 1998, almost every one picking against us every game through the tournament

 

[Wildcats1st]

It’s because it la hard to beat a team 3x in 1 season

 

[BlueManToo]

Most all of the pundits picked Illinois as well….I liked how that one turned out. Most every time their backs have been against the wall this season the Cats have found a way to defy the odds. It will be a tall task to beat UT, but beating anyone at this stage is tough sledding!

 

[4UK4Life]

Yea we want them picking Tennessee. Such as much when “touts” are all on the same team.

 

[WildcatNC]

I love it. Hope our team is seeing it all.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

Our team plays its best as the underdog with a “nothing to lose, everything to gain” attitude. Not promising a win, because it will be tough, but this is what you want if you’re a Cats fan.

 

[twwilliams9]

It’s because it la hard to beat a team 3x in 1 season

Alabama didn’t have much difficulty beating us 3 times.

 

[Blueheart32]

It’s because it la hard to beat a team 3x in 1 season

Actually, the team that won the first two meetings wins the third one the majority of the time.

 

[Tprinceuk]

Because UT is the better team lol.

How

 

[The_Answer1313]

How

How aren't they?

Better seed.
Better computer metrics.
Better ranking in the polls.
Better overall record
Better SEC record

There's a reason they are favored in the game.

 

[Ugoff]

We beat them twice and this is the healthiest roster they'll face. I like our chances.

 

[crestcat]

I remember 1998, almost every one picking against us every game through the tournament

And it looked like they were right until the end.

 

[The_Answer1313]

We beat them twice and this is the healthiest roster they'll face. I like our chances.

Same

 

[JwUKFan11]

Alabama didn’t have much difficulty beating us 3 times.

Tbf Alabama is much better than us and was favored every game (Rupp may have been close). What UK is attempting to do rarely happens, beating a team a 3rd time as the underdog.

 

[BGCATFAN2012]

Actually, the team that won the first two meetings wins the third one the majority of the time.

I'll drink to that...

 

[SemperFiCat]

How aren't they?

Better seed.
Better computer metrics.
Better ranking in the polls.
Better overall record
Better SEC record

There's a reason they are favored in the game.

This. It's ok to say they are the better team on paper. Because they are. But, we match up well, and are pretty darn good ourselves. Personally, I think it's a coin flip, and happy everyone is picking the Vols. We don't need any type of magic or miracle to beat them. Just play our game and I like our chances.

 

[Wildskatfan]

And it looked like they were right until the end.

This. Despite us shooting ridiculously well, we barely held them off. It took a herculean effort from us to put them away.
If we shoot average, we most likely don't win this one. Which is why I believe many pundits picking them.
We just need to go out with no fear or pressure and shoot lights out again.

 

[billoliver40]

By all stats Tennessee is better.

Just play the game

 

[U Go UK]

Because UT is the better team lol.

How so?

 

[The_Answer1313]

This. It's ok to say they are the better team on paper. Because they are. But, we match up well, and are pretty darn good ourselves. Personally, I think it's a coin flip, and happy everyone is picking the Vols. We don't need any type of magic or miracle to beat them. Just play our game and I like our chances.

Yep exactly.

I actually think we win the game. We've been playing well and it seems like Butler is finally starting to get back into the swing of things.

But two games don't make a season and over the course of the year, they were indeed better.

I think it's probably 40/60. But I think one of those 40% times happens Friday night.

 

[The_Answer1313]

How so?

Already answered that one lol.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

I agree on paper they are the better team and had the better season. I also think UK can win Friday night as we match up well with UT.

Like the IL game, just going in hoping for the best but not gonna throw a fit if we lose. I hate UT though so hope we win.

 

[JASUN74]

Because UT is the better team lol

Should change your name to The Wrong Answer after that.

 

[JASUN74]

Should change your name to The Wrong Answer after that.

Haha 😆

 

[The_Answer1313]

What's the line on this game?

There's a reason one team is favored over the other

Again not saying we don't win but it's the correct Answer to the question lol

 

[Myotis]

It’s because it la hard to beat a team 3x in 1 season

University-6 in an earlier thread referenced a study putting that myth to bed - at least if you've already won the first two.

 

[Blueheart32]

What's the line on this game?

There's a reason one team is favored over the other

Again not saying we don't win but it's the correct Answer to the question lol

Tenn -4.5 at FanDuel
KenPom has it at Tenn 76 - Ky 72

 

[The_Answer1313]

Tenn -4.5 at FanDuel
KenPom has it at Tenn 76 - Ky 72

See that's kind of sizable.

Kenpom is giving us a 35% chance of a win.

So my 40/60 figure seems about right.

 

[Smashcat]

Seth of all people picks UK.

 

[Blueheart32]

See that's kind of sizable.

Kenpom is giving us a 35% chance of a win.

So my 40/60 figure seems about right.

As an outsider looking in, and a devoted gambler, I'd call it a coin flip. I would lean UT, but I wouldn't risk much on it either way.

 

[triadaz]

Give Pope 1 week to prepare + Healthier Butler + Chandler contributing+ Williams back getting better = I really like our chances.

 

[Cats192]

We beat them twice.

The first game, Lamont Butler didn't even play.
The 2nd game, Butler left with an injury.

We don't have Robinson. But we didnt have Robinson the 2nd game.

They're a very good team. They can beat us. But it's not often that you know the above--that Kentucky won twice with their starting PG out for 1.5 of the games--and think "Yeah, even though Kentucky has their PG back, they'll probably lose time."

 

[zannmann]

Greenberg picked UK. He said UT can’t score enough to win.

 

[twwilliams9]

Tbf Alabama is much better than us and was favored every game (Rupp may have been close). What UK is attempting to do rarely happens, beating a team a 3rd time as the underdog.

It may “rarely happen” in your world but factual data disputes that:

Data compiled by STATS LLC, covering a 10-year period (approximately 2008–2018), shows that in 981 instances where a team entered a third game against the same opponent with a 2-0 record in that season, the 2-0 team won the third game 710 times. This translates to a .724 winning percentage (710-271).

 

[TeoJ]

How aren't they?

Better seed.
Better computer metrics.
Better ranking in the polls.
Better overall record
Better SEC record

There's a reason they are favored in the game.

Better on paper what about head to head in actual games?

 

[RexShepcat]

It’s because it la hard to beat a team 3x in 1 season

That depends on who you play.

 

[BBNinSC]

I like our chances here. The roster and substitutions have gotten much more solid and I like Pope and his staff to game plan effectively with 4-5 days to prepare for one team.
I also believe this team has something special going on and this is the spot it comes together.