Vegas line for Saturday

[The_Catfather]

Cats favored by 11.5. Even though my heart can't handle it, I'd be happy with a 1-point win and a relatively clean bill of health from our guys afterwards.

Info below from Sea of Blue:

Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky favored by 11.5 points with an over/under of 158.5 points. That spread is a bit surprising with Kentucky potentially not having Lamont Butler and/or Andrew Carr, but the Hogs have struggled this season. EvanMiya gives Kentucky an 86.3% of winning, while ESPN is at 81.8%. BartTorvik and KenPom say 86% and 84%, respectively. However, these percentages are likely factoring in Lamont Butler and Andrew Carr, but there’s a real chance neither suits up on Saturday due to injury. In that case, the percentages would likely drop to somewhere in the 65-75% range.

Predictions: The analytics all expect Kentucky to win by double digits. EvanMiya (83-71) and BartTorvik (86-74) have the Cats winning by 12 points. KenPom has them winning by 11 points (84-73) and Haslametrics by 10 (84-74). Personally, I think Kentucky will be bothered some by Arkansas’ athleticism but they eventually pull away and win 83-74.

 

[Rideordiewildcat]

I was thinking 5. It's a big emotional game. Not just on paper matchup.

 

[UKfanINcoach]

I'm concerned Wagner, Big Z, and Thiero will be motivated to play hard. Arky will have to shoot the 3 well to have a chance.

 

[Mike-D]

I was thinking 5. It's a big emotional game. Not just on paper matchup.

Yeah, that's not how Vegas works.

 

[Jamal Mercer]

If we can avoid a slow start and not put ourselves in a hole, we will win easily.

 

[BlueBomb]

Yeah, that's not how Vegas works.

Actually, I think it is, but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, because I'm no gambler.

Vegas employs a gazillion "odds compilers." These individuals set the opening odds for every game. They are paid to take everything into account, including injuries and when a past coach comes back for the first time. They are so good at their job, that Vegas never has to worry about losing over the long haul...as we all know.

Of course, after the initial odds are set by the experts, bettors determine the final odds as they essentially decide if they think the compilers were "educated" enough when establishing the opening line.

I suppose I'm just saying I THINK Vegas would take into account anything that might impact the spread. They are too accurate and successful not to. If I'm wrong about that, no disrespect meant.

 

[JFCats22]

11.5 seems like a lot. I wouldn’t be shocked if we blew them out by 20 but also wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a 2-4 point game with a minute left.

 

[FirewithFire]

Spread is to big. We have all seen that when Cal wants to ,really, really bad he can get motivated enough to channel old Cal. They will be ready. Add in the Rupp curse of the opposing team hitting threes like layups and that will keep it close.

Can't turn the ball over. Have to rebound. Most importantly we have to find a way to stop Thiero from going downhill to the basket all game long or he will make what Nelson did look like grade school crap.

Will add, I hope we blow them out by fifty. Sixty wouldn't be to much.

 

[Cleatortoises]

Cats by 90!

 

[ArtLaibsGhost]

Unfortunately I look for Wagner and Thiero to have good nights, I think UK wins a close game.

 

[Blueathletics]

Cats favored by 11.5. Even though my heart can't handle it, I'd be happy with a 1-point win and a relatively clean bill of health from our guys afterwards.

Info below from Sea of Blue:

Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky favored by 11.5 points with an over/under of 158.5 points. That spread is a bit surprising with Kentucky potentially not having Lamont Butler and/or Andrew Carr, but the Hogs have struggled this season. EvanMiya gives Kentucky an 86.3% of winning, while ESPN is at 81.8%. BartTorvik and KenPom say 86% and 84%, respectively. However, these percentages are likely factoring in Lamont Butler and Andrew Carr, but there’s a real chance neither suits up on Saturday due to injury. In that case, the percentages would likely drop to somewhere in the 65-75% range.

Predictions: The analytics all expect Kentucky to win by double digits. EvanMiya (83-71) and BartTorvik (86-74) have the Cats winning by 12 points. KenPom has them winning by 11 points (84-73) and Haslametrics by 10 (84-74). Personally, I think Kentucky will be bothered some by Arkansas’ athleticism but they eventually pull away and win 83-74.

Even with Butler and Oweh banged up...?

 

[Basscat1987]

I'm concerned Wagner, Big Z, and Thiero will be motivated to play hard. Arky will have to shoot the 3 well to have a chance.

Pope is going to leave Wagner, Richmond, Brazille, Jonas and Thiero open for 3 to start. My hope is that if they are actually hitting their shots early he won’t let us be down 10 at half before he makes the adjustment

 

[rivercatinfl]

Unfortunately I look for Wagner and Thiero to have good nights, I think UK wins a close game.

Yes! To me Wagner is the guy I expect to go off. He is shooting y the 3 ball decently and has the about drive the ball. Not sure who guards him if Butler is out. Neither Brea or Jackson can match his speed.
We'll see. UK by 5.

 

[CatOfDaVille]

I'd be concerned if this game was in Fayetteville, but it's not. Pope knows how bad the fanbase wants this game.

That said, I won't be touching this one, but if I did I'd probably take Arkansas and the points.

Cats by 7. We keep a comfortable 8-12 pt lead most of the game, but it tightens up in the last 3 mins when Cal goes to the press.

 

[JimBR]

If we can avoid a slow start and not put ourselves in a hole, we will win easily.

Agree, unfortunately we've had slow starts in several games.

 

[kywildcats8]

I'd be concerned if this game was in Fayetteville, but it's not. Pope knows how bad the fanbase wants this game.

That said, I won't be touching this one, but if I did I'd probably take Arkansas and the points.

Cats by 7. We keep a comfortable 8-12 pt lead most of the game, but it tightens up in the last 3 mins when Cal goes to the press.

Cal doesn't practice the press, never saw him

 

[rivercatinfl]

Who's out for us? Butler? Kerr, Carr?

 

[BIG BLUE GURU]

We better be ready for them to be extremely physical and aggressive on defense, be able to stop the drives to the basket and most importantly rebound and dont turn the ball over.

 

[bowfreak]

You have to put the ball in the basket to win. Arkansas struggles doing so. UK wins by double digits.

 

[will1976]

Unfortunately I look for Wagner and Thiero to have good nights, I think UK wins a close game.

Wagner is a bricklayer. He is of no concern. Especially if we have Lamont back.

 

[L.O.D.]

Seems like Vegas thinks a UK blowout an trying to entice ARK. Bettors

 

[Aike]

I’ve got it at -7.5. Probably can push that out a little if we are able to play the pace that we want.

 

[yabbadabbadoo]

I think this game is gonna get real ugly

 

[Skyguyb27]

Beat em by 50 and never let the gas off or faaaar Pope.

 

[sjk0000]

Spread is to big. We have all seen that when Cal wants to ,really, really bad he can get motivated enough to channel old Cal. They will be ready. Add in the Rupp curse of the opposing team hitting threes like layups and that will keep it close.

Can't turn the ball over. Have to rebound. Most importantly we have to find a way to stop Thiero from going downhill to the basket all game long or he will make what Nelson did look like grade school crap.

Will add, I hope we blow them out by fifty. Sixty wouldn't be to much.

The difference is Cal usually has a much better roster. No one on his roster this year is a takeover the game type of player.

 

[BGCATFAN2012]

Nothing fixes opposing teams 3 point shooting like Rupp. Arkansas will have thier best shooting night of the year tomorrow night and near 70% from 3. With two banked in from 30ft.

 

[_ukcat]

Ark. will shoot the lights out and play their best game of the year. I feel UK wins but would take Ark. plus the points, figure CATS by 3-5

 

[Digger-Cat]

11.5 seems like a lot. I wouldn’t be shocked if we blew them out by 20 but also wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a 2-4 point game with a minute left.

If we want our metrics to improve, these are the games where UK has to get the job done.

Houston, who up until recently, hadn't beaten anyone until Kansas crapped the bed, has been at the top in all the metrics, because they absolutely destroy bad teams. The Cats need to throttle Arkansas today. If the metrics say we shoukd win by 12, we need to get em by 20 and not let up.

 

[Digger-Cat]

The difference is Cal usually has a much better roster. No one on his roster this year is a takeover the game type of player.

Yeah, when Wagner is your go to guard, you're not going anywhere.
Put Oweh on Davis and make Wagner take long shots and he will gladly take long shots.

 

[Digger-Cat]

Yes! To me Wagner is the guy I expect to go off. He is shooting y the 3 ball decently and has the about drive the ball. Not sure who guards him if Butler is out. Neither Brea or Jackson can match his speed.
We'll see. UK by 5.

Wagner is shooting the 3 ball decently? When? I've seen more cinder blocks come off his hands than anything. He's a guy you back off of, but put a hand up on, but he's no Koby Brea.

We don't have a guy that can guard Wagner? We just shut Ziegler down and he's a far better floor general than Wagner is.