Vandy +11.5 on DK versus Kentucky
- Thread starter Wonky
- Start date
The bettors seem to have quite of bit of respect for the Cats and home field.
Plus the reversion to mean on the road. Emotion in college football is a major part of the equation and is tough to generate the same performance week in and out. To me, it’s the Vandy coming off a high vs UK propensity to perform poorly off a bye week.
Vegas always wins. Always. They count on people not understanding that.
Vegas should track my picks, they would win over 75% of the time. Just have to bet opposite of what I pick. I would think that if you were to go back and check all my Red’s picks over the years, it would average over 75% incorrect. This is my superpower!
It's that way for most people. They just don't admit it.
Amazing value on which side? I’d probably lay heavy on Vandy and take the points.
Well, we are 4-2 after the bye at home, 3-0 versus Vandy after a bye under Stoops.
We are both coming off huge upset victories.
The margin of victory has been close in our 3-0 record against Vandy at home after a bye, and our 4th home win was with a last second field goal against Mississippi State in 2016. So all 4 home wins were close.
If betting, I would have to think Vandy loses by no more than 7 or 8 points.
If lots of money goes down late before the spread is changed enough for counter bets, they can lose some on a particular bet.
This. Vandy has won or lost 4 of 5 games by single digits.
That means they are most likely gonna be in the game in the 4th.
If UK can win this by 2 touchdowns (or 12 points), it will be very impressive.
I was surprised that Vandy did not wear down in the second half against Alabama. I thought depth would decide the game. But Vandy controlled the time of possession like Kentucky did against Ole Miss. If Kentucky can control possession or get an even split on possession, I think they will win. Can't allow 67% on third down like Bana did.
I still believe there are reasons for concern with coming off the bye. Those were not Vandy teams with this wherewithal and even though we won there were very bad performances in there. The good news is we may be good enough defensively this year that it stabilizes us on bad days. At the end of the day we still have to score some though.
I took Vandy at +13.5, and also +475 on the moneyline. I’ll happily lose my money, but both of those were just too good to pass up.
Lol.
I guess everyone is banking on a Vandy collapse after beating Bama?
This is the most temptation I ‘ve had for sports gambling!!
Offshore UK -14 now. I really don't get that. Vandy not only had the Bama upset but they were within in inch of beating Mizzou also. It's not like the Bama game was a one off anomaly. This looks like a one score game to me.
It has to be the letdown factor, only thing that makes sense. That and the fact Vandy lost to Georgia State.
The -14 is absurd.
Is it the road loss to Georgia State dragging Vandy down?
They went to overtime in Columbia, so the road isn’t that big of a curse to them. Hell, is a trip from Nashville to Lexington “the road?”
Is Pavia sick?
I could understand bettor euphoria for UK for beating No. 5/6, but Vandy just beat frikin’ Bama.
Vandy beat us at home two years ago . . . .
I just see nothing about this game to reasonably push it to two touchdowns!!!
They went to overtime in Columbia, so the road isn’t that big of a curse to them. Hell, is a trip from Nashville to Lexington “the road?”
Is Pavia sick?
I could understand bettor euphoria for UK for beating No. 5/6, but Vandy just beat frikin’ Bama.
Vandy beat us at home two years ago . . . .
I just see nothing about this game to reasonably push it to two touchdowns!!!
I could see the 10-11 point range....14 is a few too many. I think the bettors are looking at the following: 1. UK gave up a total of 30 points to two very good teams in UGA and Ole Miss. 2. Alabama didn't come to play....they thought they could just show up and win by 30. UK shouldn't have that problem and will be motivated beat the team that took out #1. 3. UK's offense is trending upward. 4. VU lost to Georgia State...yikes!
Of course if Stoops plays too close to the vest, we could get beat.
Of course if Stoops plays too close to the vest, we could get beat.
Vandy hasn’t played a defense remotely close to as good as UK’s defense. Vandy’s defense gives up a lot of points. I expect UK to score 25+ and Vandy to struggle to get to 20.
It could be close but I predict UK to win by 2 or more scores.
Look I love our defense and I know the new dude isn’t as defensive minded as Saban, but don’t you think it’s a stretch to say Alabama’s defense isn’t “remotely as good” as ours?
I get your point here but I see it similar as csrupp somewhat.
I think at this point in the schedule, we might be perceived as a better defense just from the last few weeks. Bama gave up a lot of O to Georgia late in the game. That game prolly sucked a massive amount of energy from the program overall whereas Vandy simply took advantage of the situation the following week.
On the other hand, we rebounded from the early loss to Sc by playing Georgia tough and handing OM a stout defense they could not defeat resulting in a rare tough road win.
Personnel-wise though, you’re prolly right about the Bama D being better overall. However, that number 13 acting like a snot-nosed romper room derelict against Vandy was prolly a distraction more than a “man up” example. Hell, the only thing he didn’t do was jump kick the drum section’s cymbals like Dewey did in School of Rock when he was kicked out of the band…dude’s bp was prolly 200/100 at games end.
I'm not even trying to say Alabama has a better defense than us, but dude said "not remotely as good" like come on bro. It's still Alabama. I'd say their defense is at least "remotely as good" as ours.
Vegas' models are working with 5-6 games worth of data at this point. I doubt they'll do manual tweaks unless there's a significant injury. SP+ postgame win expectancy for Vandy last week was 2%, so that's one explanation for why Vandy still seems underappreciated by the numbers It's possible the numbers are still underrating Vandy, but we are also halfway through the season, so seems unlikely.
All the models show something similar at Prediction Tracker (12 point average spread). So, the models have a consensus.
Having said that, 'dogs are doing a touchdown better against the spread this year on average. All the talk about transfer portal leveling the playing field is matching the betting markets too.
All the models show something similar at Prediction Tracker (12 point average spread). So, the models have a consensus.
Having said that, 'dogs are doing a touchdown better against the spread this year on average. All the talk about transfer portal leveling the playing field is matching the betting markets too.
A friend has bet me a hundred the Cats win by 21 or more!
Seriously!
And I hope I have to pay it!
Seriously!
And I hope I have to pay it!
Alabama's ranks 11th in total defense in the SEC. UK ranks 3rd.
That would be a bet I’d love to pay. lol. It could 100-% go that way but I’m thinking 10-13. My heart wants to agree with him for sure. Ha.
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