This was sent to me by someone who got it off Rafters (didn't include the poster or thread)
The common saying in college basketball, "it's hard to beat a team three times in one season," suggests that a team that has already defeated an opponent twice faces a significant challenge in winning a third matchup. However, statistical evidence from NCAA Division I men's basketball over the past decade or so consistently contradicts this notion.
Data compiled by STATS LLC, covering a 10-year period (approximately 2008–2018), shows that in 981 instances where a team entered a third game against the same opponent with a 2-0 record in that season, the 2-0 team won the third game 710 times. This translates to a .724 winning percentage (710-271). Far from being "hard," this indicates that the team that won the first two games is highly likely—winning nearly three out of four times—to secure the third victory as well.
Additional insights reinforce this trend. For example, an analysis of the 2024-2025 season up to March 20, 2025, found that in 67 conference tournament games where a team faced an opponent it had beaten twice in the regular season, the 2-0 team won all 67 times—a perfect 67-0 record. While this sample is smaller and specific to one season, it aligns with the broader 10-year trend, suggesting that the difficulty of winning a third time is overstated.
Several factors might explain why the 2-0 team tends to succeed in the third matchup. A team that has beaten an opponent twice likely has a talent or strategic advantage—better coaching, superior players, or effective game plans—that persists into the third game. Familiarity with the opponent could also allow the 2-0 team to refine its approach, while the losing team may struggle to adapt sufficiently, especially in a short timeframe like a conference tournament. High-variability outcomes, such as upsets driven by hot shooting or luck, do occur (e.g., UCLA’s comeback against Arizona in 2002-03 after two blowout losses), but these are exceptions rather than the rule.
The perception that it’s hard to win a third time may stem from memorable upsets or the psychological complacency of a favored team, but the numbers don’t bear this out as a general truth. In college basketball, statistical evidence strongly suggests that beating a team three times is not particularly difficult for the team that has already won twice. Instead, it’s more accurate to say that the 2-0 team typically holds a clear edge.
The common saying in college basketball, "it's hard to beat a team three times in one season," suggests that a team that has already defeated an opponent twice faces a significant challenge in winning a third matchup. However, statistical evidence from NCAA Division I men's basketball over the past decade or so consistently contradicts this notion.
Data compiled by STATS LLC, covering a 10-year period (approximately 2008–2018), shows that in 981 instances where a team entered a third game against the same opponent with a 2-0 record in that season, the 2-0 team won the third game 710 times. This translates to a .724 winning percentage (710-271). Far from being "hard," this indicates that the team that won the first two games is highly likely—winning nearly three out of four times—to secure the third victory as well.
Additional insights reinforce this trend. For example, an analysis of the 2024-2025 season up to March 20, 2025, found that in 67 conference tournament games where a team faced an opponent it had beaten twice in the regular season, the 2-0 team won all 67 times—a perfect 67-0 record. While this sample is smaller and specific to one season, it aligns with the broader 10-year trend, suggesting that the difficulty of winning a third time is overstated.
Several factors might explain why the 2-0 team tends to succeed in the third matchup. A team that has beaten an opponent twice likely has a talent or strategic advantage—better coaching, superior players, or effective game plans—that persists into the third game. Familiarity with the opponent could also allow the 2-0 team to refine its approach, while the losing team may struggle to adapt sufficiently, especially in a short timeframe like a conference tournament. High-variability outcomes, such as upsets driven by hot shooting or luck, do occur (e.g., UCLA’s comeback against Arizona in 2002-03 after two blowout losses), but these are exceptions rather than the rule.
The perception that it’s hard to win a third time may stem from memorable upsets or the psychological complacency of a favored team, but the numbers don’t bear this out as a general truth. In college basketball, statistical evidence strongly suggests that beating a team three times is not particularly difficult for the team that has already won twice. Instead, it’s more accurate to say that the 2-0 team typically holds a clear edge.
