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Upset Predictions

Nov 13, 2024
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I used my computer model to fill out a bracket and it predicted a few upsets:

UC San Diego over Michigan in the first round 71-70
Colorado St over Memphis in the first round 77-70
Colorado St over Maryland in the second round 72-71
Xavier over Illinois in the first round 80-77

Has the 4 #1 seeds in the Final Four with Duke beating Florida 80-77 for the championship

Of course this is all just calculations so not highly credible.
 
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I used my computer model to fill out a bracket and it predicted a few upsets:

UC San Diego over Michigan in the first round 71-70
Colorado St over Memphis in the first round 77-70
Colorado St over Maryland in the second round 72-71
Xavier over Illinois in the first round 80-77

Has the 4 #1 seeds in the Final Four with Duke beating Florida 80-77 for the championship

Of course this is all just calculations so not highly credible.
Colorado state was a tough one for me. My upset picks early have been Drake, GCU, and High Point in one bracket.
 
Damn, I was just going to make a thread like this.

I like Drake over Mizz. I think that Mizz was a little overrated this year, they played kind of an easy SEC slate, and their big positive is something they won't have at all in the tournament: playing at home.
 
I've got:
Yale over AM
Drake over Missouri
High Point over Purdue
Utah St. over UCLA

Was tempted by a few others:
CSU over Memphis
McNeese over Clemson
VCU over BYU
 
I think the SEC teams getting away from beating the hell out of each other will actually help them. Not saying they all advance, but just seeing new faces has to help. Wide open tournament. I do not think Duke is the team everyone thinks they are. If people are deducting seeds for Louisville for beating up on ACC teams, Duke the same. They had better wins OOC than Louisville, but not that many. I do not see 1/9 seed difference. IF Duke makes it past the Elite 8, consider me shocked. JMO. I think Florida wins it all.

Upsets : (1st round)
(12)Liberty over (5)Oregon
(12)CSU over (5)Memphis
(13)Grand Canyon over (4)Maryland

Final 4
Alabama
Gonzaga
Auburn
Florida
(2)Alabama over (8)Gonzaga / (1)Florida over (1)Auburn

Title Game (1)Florida over (2)Alabama


National Champ - Florida
 
This is the longest 3 days of the calendar year I swear.

I have the SDSU/UNC winner beating Ole Miss
VCU over BYU
McNeese over Clemson
X/TX over IL
Utah State over UCLA
Drake over Mizzou
Colorado State over Memphis

Man when I list those out, that is a lot of upsets I pick. No wonder I never win any bracket challenges.
 
Watch and you’ll see
Completely different tiers of players

That's kind of my fear with upsets every year. Like this year.. OK, UC San Diego can turn you over, and Michigan is turnover prone.. but Michigan will be bigger and more talented than anyone in UCSD's conference, and likewise the other way,, UCSD is going to be towards the bottom of the Big10.

So I could see UCSD winning, causing havoc in the backcourt and slowing it down.. but then again, there's Michigan with two 7-footers. I wouldn;t be shocked if Michigan were to just maul them with length and this game is over at the half.

But I guess that's what makes it the best weekend in sports. We will find out.
 
This is the longest 3 days of the calendar year I swear.

I have the SDSU/UNC winner beating Ole Miss
VCU over BYU
McNeese over Clemson
X/TX over IL
Utah State over UCLA
Drake over Mizzou
Colorado State over Memphis

Man when I list those out, that is a lot of upsets I pick. No wonder I never win any bracket challenges.

lol I was thinking the exact same thing. The first weekend of the tournament is great but the Monday to Wednesday feels like an eternity lol
 
I'm trying to decide if Auburn losing 3 of their 4 is indicative of something or just gonna be a reset for them. I"m not talking about their first round game, mind you, but still.
 
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I watched liberty in their title game and liked them.

I’m team liberty here lol
Same. I’ve actually watched a lot of their games/highlights for the last 3 years bc an Ashland alum, Colin Porter, is their starting PG. They are solid & have plenty of scoring/shooting. A cpl guys have serious range. Good passing team, too. Oregon will have their hands full, IMO. The next cpl years will be fun for Ashlanders who follow CBB bc another Tomcat star, Zander Carter, will join the team next season & he should get plenty of run & could possibly even start.
 
I'm trying to decide if Auburn losing 3 of their 4 is indicative of something or just gonna be a reset for them. I"m not talking about their first round game, mind you, but still.

I kind of feel like people are going to sour on them a bit because of that so they might be a good pick for brackets.

I'm tempted to have a final of Auburn vs Houston since everyone seems to love Florida and Duke lol.

I do think a 1 seed is winning this title and I think multiple (2 or 3) are making the final four. Would not shock me if all 4 do.
 
I'm trying to decide if Auburn losing 3 of their 4 is indicative of something or just gonna be a reset for them. I"m not talking about their first round game, mind you, but still.

I think it might be good for them. They got humbled a few times and you know Pearl is crawling up their asses as we speak. I think he will have them ready.

Im tending to stick with Auburn as the team to beat. I think Pearl is pretty solid and it's a team that's like 23 years old.. that's going to be hard to beat. And they're coming in, probably a little pissed off.
 
I think it might be good for them. They got humbled a few times and you know Pearl is crawling up their asses as we speak. I think he will have them ready.

Im tending to stick with Auburn as the team to beat. I think Pearl is pretty solid and it's a team that's like 23 years old.. that's going to be hard to beat. And they're coming in, probably a little pissed off.
I think they're a Final Four team as well, for the reasons you stated. Not sure they can beat Florida or Duke though.
 
Man, these were tough picks to make. I think both could win but Purdue and Clemson are both tough teams.
I ended up going with Purdue and Clemson. I do think VCU can beat BYU.

This time a year is so fun.
Not an easy pic for sure. But either of the teams have what it takes to win 2 games this week. Gonna be some good games this week. Would not be surprised if our game is close at half.
 
Seen somewhere Troy being a trendy upset pick

*rolls eyes
Why wouldn’t they be? History is the best predictor of the future. We have one win in the last four years right?? Would not take a genius to say they lose again. Just saying.
 
Why wouldn’t they be? History is the best predictor of the future. We have one win in the last four years right?? Would not take a genius to say they lose again. Just saying.

That’s silly. There is nothing from those teams that’s related to this one. New coach. New players. Why on earth would anyone feel the past has any bearing whatsoever on this game.
 
That’s silly. There is nothing from those teams that’s related to this one. New coach. New players. Why on earth would anyone feel the past has any bearing whatsoever on this game.
Because even the guys that are payed to make picks do not do any research. Most can’t name a player on our team. All they know is we have sucked in the tournament for 4 straight years. Why not say 5.
I don’t believe we will lose but I didn’t think we would lose to Oakland or St. Peter’s either.
When your school has lost 4 of their last 5 tournament games to No Body’s. Be prepared for people to talk shit is all I’m saying.
 
Because even the guys that are payed to make picks do not do any research. Most can’t name a player on our team. All they know is we have sucked in the tournament for 4 straight years. Why not say 5.
I don’t believe we will lose but I didn’t think we would lose to Oakland or St. Peter’s either.

It's been 3 straight tournaments. Sadly we didn't even make it in 2021. Thanks Cal.
 
It's been 3 straight tournaments. Sadly we didn't even make it in 2021. Thanks Cal.
Arkansas wouldn’t have made it either until the officials stepped in and started giving them 30 plus foul shots a game. The second half of their Georgia game was the worst officiating game I saw this year. That’s saying a lot.
Georgia was up 17 and Arkansas took the lead without making a single FG I believe. Arkansas shot FTs on almost every possession the second half.
And we thought it was Cal. Nope
 
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