Updated SEC team NET rankings after bloody Wednesday

[KAB Cats]

Obviously losing that game by 7 when we were predicted to win by 18 takes a bit of a hit in computer models. As it should. I mean we shouldn't be throwing out any results.

That being said, the models treat it like it is........just one game.

Kenpom currently has us at 16th.
It's pretty cool you can actually go back and looking at the ratings archive just to see how much of an effect that game did have. We lost 1.65 in our efficiency margin.

Let's say we won that game and we won it by what we were predicted to (by 18). We would currently be ranked 13th in the system compared to 16th. Had we just won the game? Probably either 14th or 15th.

So that one game really didn't move things. It was after all just one game.

Again, the NET algorithms are optimized for March. So, all that is true, but I'm not arguing against the merit or lack of merit to the NET. Only that when it comes to point spreads and projections that the loss to UNC-Wilmington is what shifts points away from Kentucky at this point in the season.

So, if Kentucky is a 1 point underdog with 60% chance of losing according to <insert model here> that game going in the inverse direction would singled handedly swing projections to a UK favorite and 60% chance of winning. Of course, as more games are played, one game becomes less relevant.

 

[Smashcat]

UK now #16. Need to ge that win tomorrow.

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Get NCAA college basketball rankings from the Associated Press, USA Today Coaches poll and the NCAA NET Rankings.

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[crawfords corner]

UNCW has rose up something like 24 spots in the last week. At one point last week they were 145th. Looking right now they are at 121st. So, that would say to me that they rose 15 spotsin the days I last saw and then 9 more spots according to the current rankings. Maybe well get lucky and theyll go on a long winning streak.

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

Re: Tx A&M. Good news, a win there would be a Q1 win. Bad news, ESPN's predictor has them as a 65% favorite. We'll need everyone's A game Saturday. A win puts us into the top 5 AP after this week's carnage. Let's not be part of that!

Is ESPN drunk? How could they possibly make TAM 65% favorites? Must have been that total beat down the put on LSU at home.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Again, the NET algorithms are optimized for March. So, all that is true, but I'm not arguing against the merit or lack of merit to the NET. Only that when it comes to point spreads and projections that the loss to UNC-Wilmington is what shifts points away from Kentucky at this point in the season.

So, if Kentucky is a 1 point underdog with 60% chance of losing according to <insert model here> that game going in the inverse direction would singled handedly swing projections to a UK favorite and 60% chance of winning. Of course, as more games are played, one game becomes less relevant.

But what I'm saying is that even on January 12th, 2024 it didn't really shift things like you think it did. Even back when the game was played, it didn't move things much.

We would have been a very similar rank had we won that game.

That single game would have moved the needle but slightly.

That's why these systems are so much better than humans. They don't overreact to wins and losses the same way we would.

 

[KAB Cats]

But what I'm saying is that even on January 12th, 2024 it didn't really shift things like you think it did. Even back when the game was played, it didn't move things much.

We would have been a very similar rank had we won that game.

That single game would have moved the needle but slightly.

That's why these systems are so much better than humans. They don't overreact to wins and losses the same way we would.

Except what I'm saying is that it would've in most computer models. When you're a 1-2 point underdog, if that loss doesn't happen, you wouldn't be the underdog. Plug it in

 

[KyCPA]

I think Kentucky being at 17th, despite winning enough games to move us to top5, tells us that we're not quite winning these games as well as we could or should (for lack of better wording). Said it the other day, we didn't look "great" despite a double digit win over a decent Mizz team.

Something still feels just a little off. Maybe just need more reps with the bigs and adjusting without Adou? Maybe still working towards playing as a more cohesive unit?

That something off would be defense and maybe rebounding.

 

[BigRedMachineBigBlueNation]

That’s the problem a robot can use the eyeball method. How does this team LOOK