Up 6 spots in the NET Sunday

[Rideordiewildcat]

With FL who we beat beating #1 on the road, Clemson beating #2, us taking care of business by 23 and a few others combos we moved from 23rd to 17th. Not bad.

Still don't think 14 Zags, 11 KU, 16 Maryland and 12 Illinois should be ahead of us. Oh well. Just win baby!

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

That’s a big jump. I like it

 

[YardCat]

Beat UT Tuesday and we move up even more

 

[TheDude73]

With FL who we beat beating #1 on the road, Clemson beating #2, us taking care of business by 23 and a few others combos we moved from 23rd to 17th. Not bad.

Still don't think 14 Zags, 11 KU, 16 Maryland and 12 Illinois should be ahead of us. Oh well. Just win baby!

The Zags...still a laugher. And KU - they are nowhere near what the pundits thought they'd be at the start of the season.

If we can put something together this last half of February, we get into the top 10 of the NET easily. And as we all know, the NET is (supposedly) the key for committee seeding. To get a 3 seed we need to be firmly planted in the top 12 (preferably not 12th as that gives the committee fodder for moving us to a dreaded 4).

We need to win big the rest of this month. I still believe we'll wrap up 6-2 or 5-3 and smack dab in the 4-seed range, but I'm hopeful that with Butler back and Amari finally playing to fans' initial expectations, we pull off a strong finish. Of course, we need Jaxson and that wrist situation appears to be risky (I think it's a sprain or deep bruise, not a fracture due to it only be cross-taped and not splinted).

 

[HenryMuto]

NET really hates us

We beat Tennessee by 11 and only move up 2 spots from 17 to 15

We lost to Arkansas by 10 and dropped from 10 to 19 that day.

How do you beat a top 5 NET team by 11 and barely move up

How do you have 7 quad 1 A wins and sit 15th

So many teams have so many less quad 1 wins above us

 

[Lempface]

NET really hates us

We beat Tennessee by 11 and only move up 2 spots from 17 to 15

We lost to Arkansas by 10 and dropped from 10 to 19 that day.

How do you beat a top 5 NET team by 11 and barely move up

How do you have 7 quad 1 A wins and sit 15th

So many teams have so many less quad 1 wins above us

Because computer rankings by nature have to have a pecking order of what they think are the important components of the game. Those are decided by a person/team who develop the ranking by the way. So how one person/group decides to weight things can inherently bias the rankings towards certain teams.

I'd love to have the formulas for some of these and try and poke holes in them. Imagine putting in numbers where a team is beating sub 200 teams by 50 scoring 110, beating sub 100 teams by 40 scoring 100, and beating sub 50 teams by 30 scoring 90. Then add in that same team losing by 5 to every team they play above rank 20, I bet you'd get some silly ass results.

 

[BlueWorldOrder74]

Teams above us in NET that we have already proven we can beat……

- Duke
- Florida
- Tennessee
- Texas AM
- Gonzaga

Not worried about number so much as health.

 

[fatguy87]

The "distance" or difference in rating between ranks isn't uniform. The gap in rating between the 5th and 7th team might be larger than the gap between the 10th and 20th team. Playing a single good game might get us from 20th to 15th in the latter case while we may weeks of sustained quality play go from 7th to 5th in the former case due to the larger rating gap.

In the case of Kenpom, the 5th place team has nearly a +4 net rating advantage over the 7th place team. That difference is roughly equivalent to the net rating difference between the 10th team and the 26th team in Kenpom.

 

[The_Answer1313]

These computer metrics are simply basis on efficiency.

How many points per possession did we score? How many did we give up?

Then it's adjusted for SOS.

This isn't some magic formula where some guy decided on metrics that were important. It's literally based on what actually happened on the court. How much did you score? How much did you give up?

That's all.

 

[The_Answer1313]

The "distance" or difference in rating between ranks isn't uniform. The gap in rating between the 5th and 7th team might be larger than the gap between the 10th and 20th team. Playing a single good game might get us from 20th to 15th in the latter case while we may weeks of sustained quality play go from 7th to 5th in the former case due to the larger rating gap.

In the case of Kenpom, the 5th place team has nearly a +4 net rating advantage over the 7th place team. That difference is roughly equivalent to the net rating difference between the 10th team and the 26th team in Kenpom.

Exactly.
This is why the actual number matters more than the ranking itself.

People are way too consume with "oh we moved up X spots" or "we moved down Y spots".

What matters is the actual efficiency margin. The difference between what you score and what you give up.

 

[The_Answer1313]

And the other thing is resume doesn't equal computer metrics.

The whole purpose of the computer metrics is to put everyone on a level playing field. It allows you to assess teams regardless of what conference a team plays in and what their opponents look like.

It says "ok you played this type of schedule, what did you do with it"

You could play a crappy schedule but that means you had better be winning those games by large margins. More than other teams that face those similar teams.

If Team A plays 50 games and they win those games by an avg margin of 20 and Team B plays 50 games and they win those games by an avg margin of 10, maybe Team A is better than Team B.

 

[fatguy87]

NET really hates us

We beat Tennessee by 11 and only move up 2 spots from 17 to 15

We lost to Arkansas by 10 and dropped from 10 to 19 that day.

How do you beat a top 5 NET team by 11 and barely move up

How do you have 7 quad 1 A wins and sit 15th

So many teams have so many less quad 1 wins above us

UT was about a 2 point favorite against us. We beat them by 11. We outdid the expectation by 13 points.

We were 12 point favorites against Arkansas. We lost by 10. That's 22 points worse than expected.

The Arkansas game was much "worse" than the UT game was "good" in the eyes of systems that prioritize MOV/efficiency.

NET and other systems include the score for every game played. We have great wins, but we also have some dismal performances. And in many instances, these "bad" games are more "bad" than our good games are "good."

 

[Montana81]

UT was about a 2 point favorite against us. We beat them by 11. We outdid the expectation by 13 points.

We were 12 point favorites against Arkansas. We lost by 10. That's 22 points worse than expected.

The Arkansas game was much "worse" than the UT game was "good" in the eyes of systems that prioritize MOV/efficiency.

NET and other systems include the score for every game played. We have great wins, but we also have some dismal performances. And in many instances, these "bad" games are more "bad" than our good games are "good."

The ohio state, colgate and arkansas games are our worst performances. If we just perform to expectations in those 3 games things look a lot different right now. We’d probably be 10 spots higher or close to it.

 

[fatguy87]

The ohio state, colgate and arkansas games are our worst performances. If we just perform to expectations in those 3 games things look a lot different right now. We’d probably be 10 spots higher or close to it.

We look much better if we lose to Ohio State and Arkansas by a combined 10 points rather than 30.

The Georgia and Ole Miss games are probably close to the Colgate game in terms of performance. I think we were about 12 points from covering the spread against Colgate. We underperformed by close to that same margin against Georgia and Ole Miss.

The Colgate game is a great example in that we can play poorly in victory. Crushing weak opponents is something dominant teams do.

 

[ThroughBlue]

Teams above us in NET that we have already proven we can beat……

- Duke
- Florida
- Tennessee
- Texas AM
- Gonzaga

Not worried about number so much as health.

This. If we are healthy I am fine playing anyone outside of maybe Auburn and we will get a chance to see about them as well

 

[The_Answer1313]

In conference play, we are barely outscoring our opponents on a points per possession basis. We are currently running on a 9-9 or 10-8 pace in conference.

This is why our NET ranking doesn't completely line up with our resume.

​ Team	​ OE	​ DE	EM
Alabama	120.3	​ 105.5	14.8​
Auburn	116.9	103.2	13.7​
Florida	115.4	102.2	13.2​
Missouri	112.4	102.8	9.6​
Tennessee	105.6	99	6.6​
Texas A&M	108.4	102.3	6.1​
Mississippi	107.5	102.5	5​
Kentucky	116.8	114.9	1.9​
Mississippi St.	106.8	110.3	-3.5​
Arkansas	101.9	106.5	-4.6​
Georgia	98.8	105	-6.2​
Texas	106	112.2	-6.2​
Vanderbilt	106.4	114.9	-8.5​
Oklahoma	102.3	111.2	-8.9​
LSU	96.5	113.2	-16.7​
South Carolina	93.6	111	-17.4​

 

[cats#1again]

NET really hates us

We beat Tennessee by 11 and only move up 2 spots from 17 to 15

We lost to Arkansas by 10 and dropped from 10 to 19 that day.

How do you beat a top 5 NET team by 11 and barely move up

How do you have 7 quad 1 A wins and sit 15th

So many teams have so many less quad 1 wins above us

Why the net has always been a joke

 

[UKBB4Ever]

The ohio state, colgate and arkansas games are our worst performances. If we just perform to expectations in those 3 games things look a lot different right now. We’d probably be 10 spots higher or close to it.

But we would still be the same team.

 

[The_Answer1313]

It's not really so much the outcome of a specific game or a handful of specific games.

It's over the course of an entire season. It's consistently beating teams by large amounts. That's all this is about.

If one team is beating teams by 10 points and the other team is beating similar teams by 20..........the second team is probably better.

Looking at the EM above, Auburn, Alabama and Florida are in a class of their own in conference play so far. We've been barely .500.