Underseeded / Overseeded (NET/BPI/KenPom Avg.)

[Eight_Banners]

I compiled the NET, BPI, KenPom O, KenPom D, and KenPom Overall for each tournament team. I added the team totals up and took the average for each team. Here is where each team would have been seeded based on their average for those numbers:

Rightly Seeded
Overseeded
More than 1 seed line Overseeded
Underseeded
More than 1 seed line Underseeded

#1 Seeds
Houston
Alabama
UCLA - #2
Connecticut - #4
#2 Seeds
Texas
Purdue - #1
Tennessee - #4
Kansas - #1
#3 Seeds
Arizona - #2
Creighton - #6
Saint Mary's - #5
Marquette - #2
#4 Seeds
Gonzaga - #3
Duke - #5
Arkansas - #8
San Diego St. - #5
#5 Seeds
Texas A&M - #7
West Virginia - #9
Memphis - #8
Florida Atlantic - #9
#6 Seeds
Xavier - #3
Maryland - #8
Kansas St. - #3
Baylor - #3
#7 Seeds
Indiana - #4
TCU - #6
Utah St. - #10
Kentucky - #6
#8 Seeds
Auburn - #9
Iowa St. - #6
Virginia - #4
Michigan St. - #7
#9 Seeds
Illinois
Boise St. - #10
USC - #10
Northwestern - #7
#10 Seeds
Penn. St.
Miami Fl. - #5
Providence - #11
N. C. State
#11 Seeds
Iowa - #8
Arizona St.
Oral Roberts - #12
Drake - #12
#12 Seeds
VCU
Charleston
Iona - #13
Missouri - #7
#13 Seeds
Kent. St.
Pittsburgh - #11
Louisiana
Furman
#14 Seeds
Grand Canyon
Montana St.
UC Santa Barbara
Vermont - #15
#15 Seeds
Princeton
Colgate
Kennesaw St. - #14
UNC Asheville
#16 Seeds
Northern Kentucky
Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Howard
Fairleigh Dickinson


Biggest standouts:
*UConn is underseeded by two seeds, which would make them a #1 seed. I thought the Pitino effect would be there for Iona to beat UConn, but I'd give the nod to UConn.
*The entire 5-seed line would be different, and Texas A&M, Memphis, FAU, and West Va. are extremely underseeded with this model, FAU jumping from #9 to #5
*Creighton jumps from a #6 to #3
*Missouri falls from #7 to #12
*Utah State jumps from #10 to #7
*The biggest jumps are four spots: Arkansas #8 to #4 (I hope they are as good as this suggests and beat KU in the 2nd round), FAU #9 to #5, and West. Va. #9 to #5
*The biggest drops are five spots: Missouri, Miami Fl. (#5 to #10)
*Three teams drop three spots: Virginia #4 to #8, Indiana from #4 to #7, and Xavier from #3 to #6

 

[BlueBomb]

OP doin’ work.

 

[Smashcat]

Creighton - #6

I’m surprised by this. I think Creighton is a pretender.

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

Interesting. I'd use some of this if I hadn't already submitted my 1 annual bracket.

 

[Runnin'Ramel]

Good stuff. Let's keep this thread alive to see how the model works!

 

[Cayts69]

KenPom (and analytics) have yet to figure out the good team bad conference dynamic, which lends to the over ranking of these teams - st Mary’s, FAU, etc.

 

[Rivals_Defender]

Tennessee is overseeded - they made it to a #4 based on their schedule. They are definitely the weakest 4 and should have been on the 6/7 seed line.

 

[Eight_Banners]

KenPom (and analytics) have yet to figure out the good team bad conference dynamic, which lends to the over ranking of these teams - st Mary’s, FAU, etc.

Obviously analytics don't tell the entire story. However, here are St. Mary's and FAU's numbers from each source:

FAU
NET: 13
BPI: 35
KPO: 31
KPD: 35
KPOverall: 22

St. Mary's:
NET: 11
BPI: 19
KPO: 39
KPD: 8
KPOverall: 11

Seems like they are pretty consistent by all the metrics. I didn't love St. Mary's as a pick to do much in the tournament, and they might not, but there is consistency in their analytics. Their biggest problem is a 2nd round matchup against UConn.

 

[Eight_Banners]

Tennessee is overseeded - they made it to a #4 based on their schedule. They are definitely the weakest 4 and should have been on the 6/7 seed line.

What their numbers cannot account for is the loss of Zeigler. The third leading scorer and energy guy is hard to replace for UT.

Having watched them, watched UK beat them, and knowing their SEC outcome, I don't like them to advance past the 2nd round. I hate that they are Duke's 2nd round matchup, because they won't beat Duke if they have to play them.

 

[EliteBlue]

Not surprising that almost every B12 and B10 team is over seeded.

Also OP, how come you didn’t use Sagarin as well. Any particular reason?

 

[cats2010]

What their numbers cannot account for is the loss of Zeigler. The third leading scorer and energy guy is hard to replace for UT.

Having watched them, watched UK beat them, and knowing their SEC outcome, I don't like them to advance past the 2nd round. I hate that they are Duke's 2nd round matchup, because they won't beat Duke if they have to play them.

TN was put as dukes probable 2nd rd opponent for a reason. Committee could have easily flipped TN and Tex A&M with where they both finished league play and how they finished the season. Tex A&M would have been too much for the Dukies though, the committee couldn’t have that.

 

[Smashcat]

Also OP, how come you didn’t use Sagarin as well. Any particular reason?

Ditto. I love Sagarin.

 

[Smashcat]

Miami could fall early here's a big reason: defense.
Miami has a ton of issues on the defensive end of the court, as it’s 132nd in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and has really struggled to defend inside the arc.

The Hurricanes are allowing 51.8% from inside the arc, which is 281st in the country.

They also really struggle defending from the mid-range and in the post.

 

[Smashcat]

Tennessee is overseeded - they made it to a #4 based on their schedule. They are definitely the weakest 4 and should have been on the 6/7 seed line.

Also favored by 11 tonight. If Louisiana doesn't upset them it sure seems like they will cover.

 

[Sejonesy]

Good work here, but something is wrong with these metrics if a 19-14 WVU team is a 5 seed.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I’m surprised by this. I think Creighton is a pretender.

I think they show good defense and offense metrics, and I guess that's pretty much what every recent title champion winds up being: elite on both sides of the ball.

 

[barbourfor3]

Somehow both winning games and losing games gets undervalued in all these formulas. If you’re 19-14 you simply aren’t that good. You may be capable of beating someone on a given day, but are lucky to be in the tourney at all, let alone under seeded. Basketball is a lot about matchups - so it doesn’t make sense to me to place so much value on how a team you played performs against x,y, and z teams.

Having said all that, there is no perfect formula so I guess you gotta just pick one and roll with it

 

[Eight_Banners]

Ditto. I love Sagarin.

There was no specific reason for leaving out the Sagarin ratings. I just didn't think of it.

Here it is with Sagarin included:

#1 Seeds
Houston
Alabama
UCLA
Connecticut
#2 Seeds
Texas
Purdue
Tennessee
Kansas
#3 Seeds
Arizona
Creighton
Marquette
Gonzaga
#4 Seeds
Saint Mary's
Duke
Arkansas
Texas A&M
#5 Seeds
Memphis
San Diego St.
West Virginia
Xavier
#6 Seeds
Baylor
Maryland
Indiana
Kansas St.
#7 Seeds
TCU
Florida Atlantic
Kentucky
Auburn
#8 Seeds
Utah St.
Iowa St.
Virginia
Illinois
#9 Seeds
Michigan St.
Boise St.
USC
Northwestern
#10 Seeds
Miami Fl.
Penn. St.
Providence
Iowa
#11 Seeds
N. C. State
VCU
Oral Roberts
Drake
#12 Seeds
Missouri
Charleston
Iona
Kent State
#13 Seeds
Arizona St
Pittsburgh
Furman
Louisiana
#14 Seeds
UC Santa Barbara
Grand Canyon
Vermont
Montana St.
#15 Seeds
Princeton
Colgate
Kennesaw St.
UNC Asheville
#16 Seeds
Northern Kentucky
Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Howard
Fairleigh Dickinson


No matter how you look at the numbers, here are pretty obvious conclusions:

Underseeded:
UConn
Tennessee
Creighton
Arkansas
Texas A&M
Memphis
West Va.
Florida Atlantic
Maryland
Utah State
Auburn

Throwing out numbers and just considering wins/losses, I would move UConn up to a #3, Creighton to #4, Arkansas to #7, Texas A&M to #4, Memphis up to #7, and Utah State up to #7. If Tennessee was with Zeigler, I would move them up to #3. They don't have a bad loss in 2023. At Florida and at Vandy by 1 are their only two losses in 2023 to non-tournament teams. Without Zeigler I think #4 is fair.

Overseeded:
Xavier
Baylor
Indiana
Kansas State (good for us....maybe)
Iowa State
Virginia
Michigan State
Northwestern
Miami
Iowa
Missouri
Pittsburgh
Arizona State

The standouts being, Missouri, Miami, and Virginia. What's crazy about Missouri is only one of their nine losses all year was to a non-tournament team: at Florida by 9 points. On the other hand, they only have six wins against tournament teams. However, UK only has five wins against tournament teams. Missouri's KenPom defense drags down their average a great deal. Missouri's biggest problem is that Utah State is one of the most underseeded teams and will most likely beat Missouri in round one. Considering Utah State has the #13 overall offense (KenPom) going up against Missouri's 179th ranked defense.

Miami also has a terrible defense which drags their average down. The good news for them is Drake isn't as efficient offensively as Utah St.

Virginia is overvalued, as are a few other ACC teams. Of course, it's Virginia's KenPom offensive efficiency that drags them down. Furman has the 33rd most offensively efficient team, versus UVa at 75. That should be an interesting game.

 

[The_Answer1313]

KenPom (and analytics) have yet to figure out the good team bad conference dynamic, which lends to the over ranking of these teams - st Mary’s, FAU, etc.

To be fair tho, I don't think anyone really knows where to seed these teams. Computers overated (maybe) or humans underate

 

[Eight_Banners]

Somehow both winning games and losing games gets undervalued in all these formulas. If you’re 19-14 you simply aren’t that good. You may be capable of beating someone on a given day, but are lucky to be in the tourney at all, let alone under seeded. Basketball is a lot about matchups - so it doesn’t make sense to me to place so much value on how a team you played performs against x,y, and z teams.

Having said all that, there is no perfect formula so I guess you gotta just pick one and roll with it

The problem with West Virginia was having an insanely difficult schedule, and it's hard to know how good they really are, because they lost to a lot of really good teams:

N - Purdue (80-68)
@ Xavier (84-74)
@ Kansas State (82-76 OT)
Kansas (76-62)
Baylor (83-78)
Texas (69-61)
@ TCU (76-72)
@ Texas (94-60)
@ Baylor (79-67)
@ Kansas (76-74)
N - Kansas (78-61)

That's 11 of 14 losses to teams who were all ranked in the top-25 for most of the year. The only exceptions being Purdue (the first two weeks), Kansas State (until January), TCU (weeks 3 and 4), Xavier (until week 8), and Baylor (week 10).

They were 6-11 against tournament teams. Kentucky was 5-7.

 

[Smashcat]

Kansas State (good for us....maybe)

👍

 

[The_Answer1313]

Good work here, but something is wrong with these metrics if a 19-14 WVU team is a 5 seed.

They are 19-14 solely on the basis of playing in a difficult Big12.

You cannot just look at record in these things and conclude good/bad teams. The different in SOS is massive at times.

 

[The_Answer1313]

It's also easy to see where computer rankings and seeding differ widely.

The reason why Uconn and UT are rated higher in computer rankings than seeding is because computer rankings take into account margin of victory whereas the humans tend to just look at records

But it matters.

28 of the last 30 champions have had MOV better than 10. Which bodes well for Alabama, UCLA, UConn, UT, and Zags. Not so great for KU and Marquette

 

[LineSkiCat14]

The problem with West Virginia was having an insanely difficult schedule, and it's hard to know how good they really are, because they lost to a lot of really good teams:

N - Purdue (80-68)
@ Xavier (84-74)
@ Kansas State (82-76 OT)
Kansas (76-62)
Baylor (83-78)
Texas (69-61)
@ TCU (76-72)
@ Texas (94-60)
@ Baylor (79-67)
@ Kansas (76-74)
N - Kansas (78-61)

That's 11 of 14 losses to teams who were all ranked in the top-25 for most of the year. The only exceptions being Purdue (the first two weeks), Kansas State (until January), TCU (weeks 3 and 4), Xavier (until week 8), and Baylor (week 10).

They were 6-11 against tournament teams. Kentucky was 5-7.

That SOS really seems to be what's boosting WVU. I'm banking on that for my brackets, for WVU to pull off a win or two.

 

[The_Answer1313]

The thing is by underseeding WVU, they've obviously given them a tougher game in the first round compared to what they should have received. I think they are only like a 1-2 point favorite.

So it's entirely possible they lose that game and people are like see they are 19-15 and not a good team LOL

 

[Smashcat]

Need Dook to go down today. (Not expecting it).

 

[Eight_Banners]

The thing is by underseeding WVU, they've obviously given them a tougher game in the first round compared to what they should have received. I think they are only like a 1-2 point favorite.

So it's entirely possible they lose that game and people are like see they are 19-15 and not a good team LOL

Not to mention, if both Maryland and WVU are underseeded, this is like a 5/6 matchup, rather than 8/9.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Not to mention, if both Maryland and WVU are underseeded, this is like a 5/6 matchup, rather than 8/9.

And also affects the second round matchup cause Alabama just got a much tougher team than they probably should have.

 

[BlueSince92]

Wait.

Did you just say the selection committee underseeded DUKE?

Glory be.

Sakes alive.

I’d better sit down.

Does it feel hot in here to you?

These are the end times indeed.

Bring me some water, child.

 

[Padsfs07]

Baylor is the only team I really leaned on that's deep in the red. I have UConn in the Final 4 from the blue side.

 

[Eight_Banners]

West Va., proposed 5-seed, goes down to Maryland, proposed 6-seed. Nothing proved by that game. However, West Va. being the Big 12's only overseeded team might not bode well for the Big 12 the rest of the tournament.

 

[FanofUK]

"*The entire 5-seed line would be different, and Texas A&M, Memphis, FAU, and West Va. are extremely underseeded with this model, FAU jumping from #9 to #5"


Apparently West Va is exactly where they were supposed to be.

*edit did not see Maryland was underseeded also = my b

 

[barbourfor3]

Virgins over seeded - awesome finish to that game !!!

 

[Eight_Banners]

Virgins over seeded - awesome finish to that game !!!

UVa. v. Furman was an 8/13 matchup by the averages model. It was a good game.

 

[bigc45157]

OP doin’ work.

Yea, that breakdown is straight 🔥🔥

 

[ORCAT10]

Interesting work.
Thanks!

 

[nickhorvathsuxazz]

btt
I want to be able to find this thread for the next couple of days

 

[Wildcats1st]

So you’re saying if we beat providence we will be playing a 6 seed in second round? So we have a 3 seed draw? Yeah cal better not screw this up.

 

[TOMCATS1990]

So you’re saying if we beat providence we will be playing a 6 seed in second round? So we have a 3 seed draw? Yeah cal better not screw this up.

Most KY fans cringe thinking about CAL having to try and not screw this up unfortunately.

 

[JustBlue]

Metrics like this are difficult because they don't take into account teams that have made adjustments and are hot going into the tourney.