UK/Troy Spread
- Thread starter CatOfDaVille
- Start date
The thought is Troy may try to muck it up. They are the strongest 14 seed and we don’t usually put teams away. I like a cover here but there’s a reason this is the lowest spread of any 3/14
Barttorvik has us as a 12.5 point favorite. I think Kenpom's is right around there as well.
10.5 seems low compared to those systems. I wonder if injury questions have impacted the line. I figure it will get bet up.
10.5 seems low compared to those systems. I wonder if injury questions have impacted the line. I figure it will get bet up.
Yeah I thought that as well once I remembered reading something last night about Troy's low scoring average and good defense.
They do have UK at -120 to cover, so it's almost at -11 already. Might have to go ahead and jump on it.
Any win is fine with me. As for my ticker, that's another story.
For reference, Troy is worse than USC and LSU on Kenpom. We overperformed against them, albeit in Rupp.
We played pretty well against teams below 50th in kenpom. Colgate was the only one that we didn’t get a game score of over 90 in Barttorvik.
By comparison, last year’s team had many games with game scores below 80 against overmatched teams, including a home loss against a team worse than Troy.
We don’t look ripe for the picking since we’ve tended to play well against “weak” teams. But hey, it’s the tournament. Anything can happen.
We played pretty well against teams below 50th in kenpom. Colgate was the only one that we didn’t get a game score of over 90 in Barttorvik.
By comparison, last year’s team had many games with game scores below 80 against overmatched teams, including a home loss against a team worse than Troy.
We don’t look ripe for the picking since we’ve tended to play well against “weak” teams. But hey, it’s the tournament. Anything can happen.
I'll be happy with any kind of win but suspect we won't have much of a problem with these guys.
When Pope wins his first NCAA game, a huge sigh of relief will come from us.
We win by 1 or 21, I'll take it and worry about style points later.
Everyone comes out healthy and we play how we are capable of playing.
We win by 1 or 21, I'll take it and worry about style points later.
Everyone comes out healthy and we play how we are capable of playing.
True. I think we beat the hell out of them. But any margin will be a huge weight lifted off the team and coach.
Then play free the next game.
Is the 10.5 point spread with or without Lamont Butler?..... And any NCAA tournament win this year will be one more win than we've had in 3 out of the last 4 years.
Is Lamont really healthy enough or will it be the Lamont we had for several games that couldn't really do much? That is the question.
I am sure the betting sites are skiddish on Butler and the fact that this could be a grinder game, which means the margins of victory are *typically* smaller. If we come out and play the way we can, we should win by 15+. But my recency bias tells me to be scared out of my mind.
Vegas knows more than we do, so if we knew Butler was healthy yesterday, you can be sure Vegas knew before then.
Looks like it's already moved to -11.5.
I mean if Butler is 60-80 percent and can give us a good productive 30 min I don't see why we don't cover that.
If he's really 30-50 percent and really toughing it out and isn't himself or has to come out, ya never know. We're such a different team without him.
If he's really 30-50 percent and really toughing it out and isn't himself or has to come out, ya never know. We're such a different team without him.
Don't get carried away with the spread....take the 10 pts and move on to round 2. Or would you prefer the St. Peters disaster....favored by 23 and still lose??
