UK projection for NCAA Tourney

[backinky2018]

I saw Baseball America bracket this morning. Louisville is the #7 national seed and we are the number 2 team in their region.

I was a little surprised that they'd have the number 1 RPI team not ranked as a national seed, but I guess they project a lot of losses for us going forward.

I know this stuff is worthless this early in the season, but it's good to see us on the national radar screen again.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

I dont think UK is quite there to be in talks of a national seed just yet. Its going to take UK finishing in the top 5 at least in the SEC to get to that point. I did see where USA Today has UK as a host as a 16 seed. They had Arizona State, Notre Dame and Wright State coming to Lexington. But, they also had Arizona State going to the Louisville regional too so.........

 

[backinky2018]

I dont think UK is quite there to be in talks of a national seed just yet. Its going to take UK finishing in the top 5 at least in the SEC to get to that point. I did see where USA Today has UK as a host as a 16 seed. They had Arizona State, Notre Dame and Wright State coming to Lexington. But, they also had Arizona State going to the Louisville regional too so.........

Agree that all of this is premature, but here are a few data points:

-The cut line for NCAA tourney is USUALLY 15 SEC wins. Obviously, UK has been on the wrong end of this rule a few times (last year).

-18 SEC wins is usually solid for positioning to be a top 8 national seed (i.e. hosting a regional and hosting a super regional).

 

[KingsportKat]

Agree that all of this is premature, but here are a few data points:

-The cut line for NCAA tourney is USUALLY 15 SEC wins. Obviously, UK has been on the wrong end of this rule a few times (last year).

-18 SEC wins is usually solid for positioning to be a top 8 national seed (i.e. hosting a regional and hosting a super regional).

If my count is correct, we have 23 regular season SEC games left, so to get to 15 we need 9 more out of 23 which seems quite doable. 18 SEC wins would mean winning 12 out of 23. There is also the SEC tournament. The level of competition will start increasing soon but our position is pretty. good right now.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

If my count is correct, we have 23 regular season SEC games left, so to get to 15 we need 9 more out of 23 which seems quite doable. 18 SEC wins would mean winning 12 out of 23. There is also the SEC tournament. The level of competition will start increasing soon but we our position is pretty. good right now.

The fact that were even discussing this is not something I would have never thought in February. To get a national seed, IMO, UK needs to finish in the top 4 of the SEC at the bare minimum. As far back as I searched, no more than 4 teams from the SEC have gotten a national seed in one season. And based on past years, 18-20 wins should get you there. But theres still a lot of baseball left and anything can happen.

Edit to add here. Warren Nolan is an awesome site for the RPI people and other stats but they predict every game. Their predictions for UK as of today is 41-13 and 20-10 in conference play.

 

[backinky2018]

If my count is correct, we have 23 regular season SEC games left, so to get to 15 we need 9 more out of 23 which seems quite doable. 18 SEC wins would mean winning 12 out of 23. There is also the SEC tournament. The level of competition will start increasing soon but our position is pretty. good right now.

100% agree. And this is why getting sweeps is so meaningful as opposed to winning series 2-1 every week. Gives you a little bit of cushion for later when we hit the teeth of our schedule.

 

[backinky2018]

The fact that were even discussing this is not something I would have never thought in February. To get a national seed, IMO, UK needs to finish in the top 4 of the SEC at the bare minimum. As far back as I searched, no more than 4 teams from the SEC have gotten a national seed in one season. And based on past years, 18-20 wins should get you there. But theres still a lot of baseball left and anything can happen.

Edit to add here. Warren Nolan is an awesome site for the RPI people and other stats but they predict every game. Their predictions for UK as of today is 41-13 and 20-10 in conference play.

If that were to come to fruition, we're talking about unchartered territory where UK could conceivably host a SUPER REGIONAL at home. Crazy to think about.

 

[Crazycat68]

Halfway through the regular season at 24-3. Need to win at least 14 of the remaining 27. Heck I hope we win another 24 lol.

 

[ukdesi]

So if UK goes 6-9 overall vs the sum of Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Florida, LSU, and Tenn, and then 4-2 vs Texas AM and UGA, then that would be 10-11 rest of season in the SEC, which would put us at 18-12 overall. Hopefully we can do better but that is a really tough upcoming schedule.

 

[backinky2018]

So if UK goes 6-9 overall vs the sum of Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Florida, LSU, and Tenn, and then 4-2 vs Texas AM and UGA, then that would be 10-11 rest of season in the SEC, which would put us at 18-12 overall. Hopefully we can do better but that is a really tough upcoming schedule.

Yes. Winning on the road is tough, but I'm hoping we can take 2 of 3 next weekend.

The key thing is not to get swept in any of these series . Can this team take at least one game in Knoxville, Baton Rouge, and Nashville? That's probably the difference between hosting and just making the tourney (and potentially hosting a super).

 

[Crazycat68]

So if UK goes 6-9 overall vs the sum of Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Florida, LSU, and Tenn, and then 4-2 vs Texas AM and UGA, then that would be 10-11 rest of season in the SEC, which would put us at 18-12 overall. Hopefully we can do better but that is a really tough upcoming schedule.

You want more but that would be a good SEC record.

 

[ukdesi]

Yes. Winning on the road is tough, but I'm hoping we can take 2 of 3 next weekend.

The key thing is not to get swept in any of these series . Can this team take at least one game in Knoxville, Baton Rouge, and Nashville? That's probably the difference between hosting and just making the tourney (and potentially hosting a super).

Interestingly, while it seems we are in a good spot right now, we have 5 series coming up vs current top 10 teams. So UGA and Texas AM still feel like must win series--losses in those series and we get closer to that 15 win mendoza line you mentioned, especially if we were to also get swept in Baton Rouge or Nashville or the like, which is def possible the way those teams are playing.

 

[RogerIndy]

Interestingly, while it seems we are in a good spot right now, we have 5 series coming up vs current top 10 teams. So UGA and Texas AM still feel like must win series--losses in those series and we get closer to that 15 win mendoza line you mentioned, especially if we were to also get swept in Baton Rouge or Nashville or the like, which is def possible the way those teams are playing.

Georgia is only 1-8 in conference play, getting swept by S. Carolina (home) and Vandy (road), and dropping 2/3 to Auburn (road). Hopefully we can win the series.

 

[CB3UK]

Let's sweep Georgia this weekend and REALLY put ourselves in position

 

[trueblujr2]

Can any team claim to have a more brutal schedule than we do the last half of the season? If you count two games against UofL, we play series against 5 of the top 10 teams and two against the Number 11 team in UofL. If we can win or sweep UGA, then play .500 ball the rest of the way, we should count our blessings.

Curious, I know Mingione has caught a lot of heat the past couple of seasons. Has he redeemed himself somewhat?

 

[Comebakatz3]

Can any team claim to have a more brutal schedule than we do the last half of the season? If you count two games against UofL, we play series against 5 of the top 10 teams and two against the Number 11 team in UofL. If we can win or sweep UGA, then play .500 ball the rest of the way, we should count our blessings.

Curious, I know Mingione has caught a lot of heat the past couple of seasons. Has he redeemed himself somewhat?

I put it this way... he's buying himself more time. The better he does the more patient I will be. If somehow we just barely make the tournament then I'll be on the fence on fire or return. If we solidly get in or even host then 2 years. Make a super regional or the CWS then that goes to 3-4. The reason for this is that I don't want flash in the pan seasons that are just magical teams that happen only every 5 or 6 years. I want consistent success. So, that's what my barometer is. It's been great this season and we don't have to necessarily play at this high of a level next year, but just be a tournament team and a contender.

 

[Cats8585]

I put it this way... he's buying himself more time. The better he does the more patient I will be. If somehow we just barely make the tournament then I'll be on the fence on fire or return. If we solidly get in or even host then 2 years. Make a super regional or the CWS then that goes to 3-4. The reason for this is that I don't want flash in the pan seasons that are just magical teams that happen only every 5 or 6 years. I want consistent success. So, that's what my barometer is. It's been great this season and we don't have to necessarily play at this high of a level next year, but just be a tournament team and a contender.

I feel like next year will be the first time in 4 or 5 years that production/experience returns from position players.

Maybe that’ll keep the talent from being so volatile.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I feel like next year will be the first time in 4 or 5 years that production/experience returns from position players.

Maybe that’ll keep the talent from being so volatile.

Ehh, we could lose a decent chunk out in the field as well. I think we could lose Gray, Gilliam, Burkes, Stanke, Ewell, Felker, and McCarthy, Church and Smith. Not that we will lose all of those as some would have eligibility left, but they are draft eligible.

On the mound we could/will lose Williams, Martin, Bosma, Chavez, Strickland, Hagenow, Cotto, Hise, Byers, Logue, and Lee.

Again, I wouldn't expect all of those to go, but we could conceivably lose them all. So, there could be a huge turnover, or it could be less significant. I think pitching is probably a bit more scary as we'd lose all 3 weekend starters. However, we seem to have some viable arms that are progressing to step into those roles.

I have to say, I have been very surprised at how little we've used Cotto. Just 5 appearance and 5.2 innings so far. That is practically nothing for a guy who we thought might be a weekend starter. Not sure if Logue caught an injury bug, but he pitched on 3.8 and didn't pitch again until this past midweek game on the 28th.

Also, have we caught any wind of what might have happened to Martin? He had an injury that kept him out a few weeks, then he came back against Alabama and then sat out again this weekend.

 

[Cats8585]

Ehh, we could lose a decent chunk out in the field as well. I think we could lose Gray, Gilliam, Burkes, Stanke, Ewell, Felker, and McCarthy, Church and Smith. Not that we will lose all of those as some would have eligibility left, but they are draft eligible.

On the mound we could/will lose Williams, Martin, Bosma, Chavez, Strickland, Hagenow, Cotto, Hise, Byers, Logue, and Lee.

Again, I wouldn't expect all of those to go, but we could conceivably lose them all. So, there could be a huge turnover, or it could be less significant. I think pitching is probably a bit more scary as we'd lose all 3 weekend starters. However, we seem to have some viable arms that are progressing to step into those roles.

I have to say, I have been very surprised at how little we've used Cotto. Just 5 appearance and 5.2 innings so far. That is practically nothing for a guy who we thought might be a weekend starter. Not sure if Logue caught an injury bug, but he pitched on 3.8 and didn't pitch again until this past midweek game on the 28th.

Also, have we caught any wind of what might have happened to Martin? He had an injury that kept him out a few weeks, then he came back against Alabama and then sat out again this weekend.

I think we will return
Smith, Pitre, McCarthy, McCoy, Ewell, and Waldschmidt. That’s 6 people who will have a lot of experience. Just seems like that hasn’t happened in a really long time.

I do think we will lose a lot of pitchers, but we’ve also had the most success on bringing in transfer portal pitchers. So maybe that’s easier to do than finding good hitters?

Cotto has been strange for sure. I feel like Logue has been passed on the depth chart. Still feels like Cotto is going to have to help at some point this season.

I asked about Martin at the game Saturday and was told he was available this weekend but expected to start against UGA. I don’t see how it would have been a matchup thing so maybe he did have a setback.

 

[backinky2018]

Interestingly, while it seems we are in a good spot right now, we have 5 series coming up vs current top 10 teams. So UGA and Texas AM still feel like must win series--losses in those series and we get closer to that 15 win mendoza line you mentioned, especially if we were to also get swept in Baton Rouge or Nashville or the like, which is def possible the way those teams are playing.

agreed. I think this team has enough in the tank to win at least one in the tough road series, but life is much easier if we win the Georgia and A&M series, and at least one of the USC / UF home series.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I think we will return
Smith, Pitre, McCarthy, McCoy, Ewell, and Waldschmidt. That’s 6 people who will have a lot of experience. Just seems like that hasn’t happened in a really long time.

I do think we will lose a lot of pitchers, but we’ve also had the most success on bringing in transfer portal pitchers. So maybe that’s easier to do than finding good hitters?

Cotto has been strange for sure. I feel like Logue has been passed on the depth chart. Still feels like Cotto is going to have to help at some point this season.

I asked about Martin at the game Saturday and was told he was available this weekend but expected to start against UGA. I don’t see how it would have been a matchup thing so maybe he did have a setback.

I believe that Pitre, McCoy, and Waldschmidt are all 2nd year players. So, unless they fit the age requirement they will have to return to college. McCarthy is a redshirt sophomore, so he is draft eligible, but I could definitely see him coming back. Smith is a senior, but he may have an extra covid year to return. Ewell is a junior and is draft eligible, but he's having a terrible year, so it is likely he returns. An interesting aspect for him might be whether UK can/will use him in the OF moving forward and whether he might want to try to showcase that part of his game in order to be a more desirable prospect.

By the way, I have to repeat that I am don't care for the fact that UK has not gotten Stanke more time behind the plate, if only to ensure that Burkes remains 'fresh.' Keep Burkes in the lineup, but just DH him and give him some breaks.

Pitching wise we lose a lot. Will depend on how players like Smith and Moore and Nove progress. Can they continue to take steps forward? I believe pitching makes the world go round in college baseball, and my trust in Roszel is high, so I think he can continue to put out quality staffs. Again, I think we're having an outstanding year and I am not sure that any of our pitchers are necessarily projected as what one would consider to be top draft picks like a Thompson was.

We should have a much bigger base of players to work with than we've had in the past, so that is good. I think relying on the transfer portal is a bit hit or miss, so you have to have that core. How big the core will be will depend on a lot of factors, so we will just see how that goes. We also have a chunk of guys that transferred that haven't played much this year (Herrera and Byars) that could stay and contribute as Felker has done this year.

 

[Derek Terry]

Yeah, a little early to know exactly who will be and who won't be on the roster. We just know for sure that these guys are out of eligibility:

Williams
Felker
Byars
Stanke
Gilliam
Bosma
Gray
Giles

Pitching is obviously going to take the biggest hit with many of the weekend arms either graduating or signing. Good news is I think they have an internal guy in Smith who could be a Friday night guy by next season. He'll need to keep improving obviously (as is the case for every player) but he's a safe bet for the rotation next year.

The way I see it positionally with guys who have played this season...

Graduation/going pro: Gray, Gilliam, Felker, Burkes, Stanke

Locks to start: Grant Smith (SS; I think he uses his COVID year to come back), Pitre (2B) and Waldschmidt (LF)

Likely starters: Nolan McCarthy (CF/RF), James McCoy (RF, 1B, DH?)

Guys competing for spots who might have the inside track: Austin Fawley (C), Lukas Schramm (RF)

It's been a rough go for McCoy, but I have to think he will get another chance this year and he'll be counted on again next season. It's just hard to say what position that'll be. McCarthy has the chance right now, in my mind, to solidify himself in the locks category to start. If he keeps producing then I like him in CF next year. I think Fawley and Schramm are going to be ready to start next year, but I wouldn't be surprised if UK adds insurance at catcher and a left-handed hitting outfielder just in case.

There are a few guys left that I'm not sure what to make of at this point. I think Herrera has some potential, but if he can't play 3B, not sure where he's going to get at-bats with Pitre solidified at 2B. I don't view Ewell as a guaranteed starter next year but he has eligibility left. Might he just take a shot at pro ball after the season? Church is in the same category as a guy that's just not going to be a regular starter here but can play every now and then and give a boost. Maybe he's fine with that role, maybe he wants to try his hand elsewhere. I have no idea.

Either way, I think you can make a realistic lineup off this team before you even discuss portal additions or potential high school contributors. That's a welcomed change from the past few years.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Yeah, a little early to know exactly who will be and who won't be on the roster. We just know for sure that these guys are out of eligibility:

Williams
Felker
Byars
Stanke
Gilliam
Bosma
Gray
Giles

Pitching is obviously going to take the biggest hit with many of the weekend arms either graduating or signing. Good news is I think they have an internal guy in Smith who could be a Friday night guy by next season. He'll need to keep improving obviously (as is the case for every player) but he's a safe bet for the rotation next year.

The way I see it positionally with guys who have played this season...

Graduation/going pro: Gray, Gilliam, Felker, Burkes, Stanke

Locks to start: Grant Smith (SS; I think he uses his COVID year to come back), Pitre (2B) and Waldschmidt (LF)

Likely starters: Nolan McCarthy (CF/RF), James McCoy (RF, 1B, DH?)

Guys competing for spots who might have the inside track: Austin Fawley (C), Lukas Schramm (RF)

It's been a rough go for McCoy, but I have to think he will get another chance this year and he'll be counted on again next season. It's just hard to say what position that'll be. McCarthy has the chance right now, in my mind, to solidify himself in the locks category to start. If he keeps producing then I like him in CF next year. I think Fawley and Schramm are going to be ready to start next year, but I wouldn't be surprised if UK adds insurance at catcher and a left-handed hitting outfielder just in case.

There are a few guys left that I'm not sure what to make of at this point. I think Herrera has some potential, but if he can't play 3B, not sure where he's going to get at-bats with Pitre solidified at 2B. I don't view Ewell as a guaranteed starter next year but he has eligibility left. Might he just take a shot at pro ball after the season? Church is in the same category as a guy that's just not going to be a regular starter here but can play every now and then and give a boost. Maybe he's fine with that role, maybe he wants to try his hand elsewhere. I have no idea.

Either way, I think you can make a realistic lineup off this team before you even discuss portal additions or potential high school contributors. That's a welcomed change from the past few years.

Great post DT.

 

[CockyCat3]

I believe that Pitre, McCoy, and Waldschmidt are all 2nd year players. So, unless they fit the age requirement they will have to return to college. McCarthy is a redshirt sophomore, so he is draft eligible, but I could definitely see him coming back. Smith is a senior, but he may have an extra covid year to return. Ewell is a junior and is draft eligible, but he's having a terrible year, so it is likely he returns. An interesting aspect for him might be whether UK can/will use him in the OF moving forward and whether he might want to try to showcase that part of his game in order to be a more desirable prospect.

By the way, I have to repeat that I am don't care for the fact that UK has not gotten Stanke more time behind the plate, if only to ensure that Burkes remains 'fresh.' Keep Burkes in the lineup, but just DH him and give him some breaks.

Pitching wise we lose a lot. Will depend on how players like Smith and Moore and Nove progress. Can they continue to take steps forward? I believe pitching makes the world go round in college baseball, and my trust in Roszel is high, so I think he can continue to put out quality staffs. Again, I think we're having an outstanding year and I am not sure that any of our pitchers are necessarily projected as what one would consider to be top draft picks like a Thompson was.

We should have a much bigger base of players to work with than we've had in the past, so that is good. I think relying on the transfer portal is a bit hit or miss, so you have to have that core. How big the core will be will depend on a lot of factors, so we will just see how that goes. We also have a chunk of guys that transferred that haven't played much this year (Herrera and Byars) that could stay and contribute as Felker has done this year.

I agree about Burkes/Stanke, I have been surprised that Stanke has not caught more games. He seems like a better defensive catcher than Burkes (he has an absolute cannon throwing down to 2nd) and Burkes is the superior hitter. So I have been really surprised to see Burkes and Stanke in the lineup at the same time, but Burkes still catching and Stanke DHing. Seems like if you are going to risk having them both in the lineup at the same time, that Stanke would be catching to give Burkes a breather and Burkes would be DHing. Doesn't make a lot of sense, but the way things are going, I am not going to question anything right now. Just keep winning, whatever it takes!

 

[Tskware]

Way off topic, but have a question about regionals and super regionals.

Top 16 teams host, but how do they assign the supers? What if UL is #12, for example, and wins their regional, but 4 seeds ahead of them lose, so they are one of the top 8 remaining seeds, do they get to host the super regional?

In short, how does that work exactly?

 

[backinky2018]

Way off topic, but have a question about regionals and super regionals.

Top 16 teams host, but how do they assign the supers? What if UL is #12, for example, and wins their regional, but 4 seeds ahead of them lose, so they are one of the top 8 remaining seeds, do they get to host the super regional?

In short, how does that work exactly?

They changed the way that they do this. Now, it's numerical and is pre-determined. In other words, the #1 team will play the #16 national seed in the supers (if both win their regionals), #2 will play #15, #8 will play #9, etc.

This form holds even if one or both national seeds is upset. For example, if LSU is #1 and they are upset in their regional in Baton Rouge, the team that upsets them will advance to play the #16 seed if that 16 seed won their region (if the #16 team is also upset, then both upset winners will play). The only debate at that point is which of the upsetting team gets to host the super, but that is usually dictated by which team A) wants to host, B ) which team has the better home setup with number of seats, parking etc.

In the not so old days, regionals were paired up based primarily on geography. Hence, UK was paired with UL in 2017 super regionals based almost exclusively on geography.

I like the new setup better. It prevents UK and UL from automatically playing in supers (same with other baseball powers that often get into the tourney - UF and FSU, South Carolina and Clemson, Texas and A&M, etc).

The only remaining principle of geography occurs in the regional round. If UK is a host, and UL is not (or vice versa), it would be highly likely that they send UL to Lexington as the number 2 seed here. Also likely to get a big ten team or another team that is relatively close as the 3 seed, and then a Mac team from Ohio or Indiana as the four seed. Things are setting up for a UK vs. UL regional matchup unless both teams happen to get national seeds.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Way off topic, but have a question about regionals and super regionals.

Top 16 teams host, but how do they assign the supers? What if UL is #12, for example, and wins their regional, but 4 seeds ahead of them lose, so they are one of the top 8 remaining seeds, do they get to host the super regional?

In short, how does that work exactly?

Top 8 teams host super regionals. Next 8 host. Those are 16 regional sites with 4 teams each for 64 teams.

The regionals are setup as brackets, so the winner of the no. 1 regional will player the winner of the 16 regional in the super regional. If the overall 1 seed lost their regional then the 16 seed would take the host site for super regionals.

This happened last year with 6 seed Miami losing their regional to Ole Miss, which meant that Southern Miss, an 11 seed, hosted the Super Regional.

 

[backinky2018]

Updates as of 4/6:

D1 baseball projection has UK as 11 national seed (regional host) and matched up with #6 seed South Carolina in a super regional. The #2 seed in our region is Indiana, and #3 is Indiana state. #4 seed was a Mac team.

Dream regional for UK, in terms of having to only beat Indiana to get to a super.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

I know everyone keeps talking about that LSU series. But that series against South Carolina to me is the bigger of the two. South Carolina is really really good. And I think they’re the team to beat in the East. That series may bigger implications than any other.