UK a #3 seed now in Lunardi's bracketology
- Thread starter Smashcat
- Start date
We ll be a 5 or a 6 imo maybe a 7 bc of sec difficulty. Those two ooc wins will help us zags and duke. So we could end up a 2 if we finish top 3 in SEC
Depends on how good this team is at home. If we hold home, we can land a 2 or a 3
Wouldn’t it be something if he actually took the time to put teams where he thinks they end up rather than just slotting in the AP poll into the seed lines?
Getting 10 conference wins could give us upwards of 8 quad 1 wins in the season.
The 2011 team went 10-6 in conference and got a 4 seed.
The 2022 team got a 2 seed with 8 or 9 quad 1 wins, iirc, and they had 14 conference wins.
With that in mind, what seed do you think we get with a 10-8 SEC record?
The 2011 team went 10-6 in conference and got a 4 seed.
The 2022 team got a 2 seed with 8 or 9 quad 1 wins, iirc, and they had 14 conference wins.
With that in mind, what seed do you think we get with a 10-8 SEC record?
I think he’s trying to do it based on resume because that’s how the committee does it. I’m not personally interested in Joey Brackets’ opinion or projection on where he thinks a team will wind up. We get that with his preseason bracketology every year already and they aren’t good at all. (To be fair, projecting 68 teams accurately is quite a task and I couldn’t do it either).
10-8 screams 5-seed to me, possibly a 4. Also I think you have 2012 mixed up with 2011 team, just a heads up
Yep. I corrected it in an edit.
Here are the 5 seeds last year and their quad 1 W/L on selection Sunday:
Gonzaga 3-6
Wisconsin 5-9
St. Mary's 5-3
San Diego State 4-9
We'd very likely have many more quad 1 wins with 10 conference wins than those teams.
Here are the 3 seeds last year and their quad 1 W/L on selection Sunday:
Illinois 8-6
Creighton 8-5
Baylor 10-9
Kentucky 6-7
Our best comp in the case of 10 conference wins might be Baylor from last year. They went 24-11 and 11-7 in the Big 12.
Good point. Sec probably a little stronger than Big 12 last year so yeah maybe a three seed could happen with ten losses
4 seed. Sweet sixteen/elite eight ceiling. Could go further with the right draw.
As of right now, home games against SC, Vandy, Arkansas, and LSU are our only non-quad 1 opportunities on our schedule.
We have home games against UT, Bama, UF, and Auburn. Those are excellent chances to nab scalps against top 10 teams. Out of those 4, 3 of them are in the top 5. Going 2-2 in those games could give us 4 wins against current top 5 net opponents.
The strength of the SEC is an entirely different beast and we need to adjust our post season seeding expectations when extrapolating from conference performance. We've never had this many chances to get high quality wins and never had so many SEC opponents in the top 10.
We have home games against UT, Bama, UF, and Auburn. Those are excellent chances to nab scalps against top 10 teams. Out of those 4, 3 of them are in the top 5. Going 2-2 in those games could give us 4 wins against current top 5 net opponents.
The strength of the SEC is an entirely different beast and we need to adjust our post season seeding expectations when extrapolating from conference performance. We've never had this many chances to get high quality wins and never had so many SEC opponents in the top 10.
Yep you actually have convinced me that a 3- seed or even a 2 are a lot more likely than I originally considered
We have a bit more margin for error than in previous season thanks to great wins on neutral courts.
Now, also due to the strength of the conference, 9-9 and maybe 8-10 aren’t totally out of play. Even at 8-10, we’d be in the same quad 1 win range as the 5 seeds from last season.
We will see how it all unfolds. The Ohio State was a bummer, but the opportunity for good season and solid tournament seed is still there for the taking.
There was a guy in another thread saying he expects a 7-10 seed. How likely is a scenario like that, in your opinion? To me, it seems like we’d have to beyond fall apart within conference to get that far down
If Gonzaga keeps loosing one of best wins isn't going to be a very good win after all. They are down 1 to UCLA right now with 30 seconds to go.
ETA - They lost. Nembhard is an idiot.
ETA - They lost. Nembhard is an idiot.
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I still say at best we will be a 4 seed. SEC is brutal and we will lose at least a couple of home games.
Dook at 3 cracks me up. They have played 3 good teams and are 1-2 with the 1 win at home and play in a horrible conference.
If they lose more than 2 conference games they should plummet. But instead media decided them and Flagg would be a 1 seed this tear so it has been written so let it be done.
If they lose more than 2 conference games they should plummet. But instead media decided them and Flagg would be a 1 seed this tear so it has been written so let it be done.
We'd need to finish 9-9 to end up as a 6 or worse. With 10 wins in conference, a 4 would be the floor with a 3 as a possibility.
If, by the grace of God, we squeeze out 12 wins, we'll be in range for a two seed. We'd be 24-8 against a top 10 schedule and have something like a 10-8 record against quad 1 opponents going in to the conference tournament.
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