Tournament performance of top teams with great offenses and bad defenses

[Fancatstik]

He said they were post tournament.

Post tournament including the whole year is the way I read it. I think the point is if we are still ranked that low by tourney time there’s a pretty good chance we aren’t all of sudden going to flip the switch so we better start playing better defense soon or good chance we aren’t going past the sweet 16. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen tho. Edit, I hadn’t read your other posts after the one I quoted so we both agree we have to figure it out soon

 

[NC Weasel]

I think its safe to assume, especially 2nd rd and beyond, even these Cats aren't going to be playing a ton of 96-92 games. Tourney scores naturally drop as the coaches, all of them, and TV timeouts lead to more half court play.

But the change in roster is a good point, and Cal raised it so I'll give him credit. He said if Z could just get healthy and play, he is a game changer. He's that good. If true, and we have all seen glimpses ...... what does that do to our ceiling?

 

[JonathanW]

That 2015 game was all rock fight calipari with it being played in 60s.

Define “rock fight”? Kentucky wasn’t slowing down the game, was just playing good defense. Or should teams just step aside and let opp go right to the rim?

 

[Fox2monk]

My hope is that we get to a top 50ish defense over the last month and a half. Probably won’t get the overall ranking up but if we get solid enough toward the end that will help our chances a ton.

 

[Runnin'Ramel]

Yep - that's kind of what I've seen.

I think I saw that essentially nobody has made the Final Four with a defense ranked below 40 or so. No matter what happens, our defense isn't going to finish anywhere near that. I think it's 155 now.

And the teams listed in this post all had much better seeds than we will.

I'm not counting us out completely, but it's difficult to get your hopes up for this year's team doing anything in the tournament at this point.

The reality is, and the reason the historical context matters (as others try to discredit it), and as we've seen with this UK team, the offense is going to sputter at times. Additionally, there's a lot more half-court offense in the NCAAT. What happens when you aren't hitting shots? You might have to rely on your defense to get stops and get you through to the next round. When you have a historically awful defense, you're screwed if the shots aren't falling ....

... and have we not learned yet just HOW OFTEN the shots don't fall in March at UK under Cal, as those guys tighten up and play scared?

 

[fatguy87]

If teams are going to continue to get good looks and high % shots, you have to limit possessions somehow. I really wish we'd turn up the pressure. Not necessarily go full court but at least put an emphasis on creating turnovers.

And get offensive rebounds. Forcing more turnovers is a clear path to getting more stops.

Cal had 1 team during his tenure here that was great at forcing turnovers. It just so happened to be the best defensive team he has ever had.

 

[ganner918]

Duke’s defense was 57 heading into the 2015 tournament and 12 at the end.

Just one example of how much it can move.

Yeah, using post-tournament ratings for pre-tournament predictions doesn't mean much. Making a deep run means beating multiple good teams which boosts your metrics, sometimes substantially as in your example.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Pre vs Post I think for the general point remains the same. Just out of curiosity there's the defensive rankings pre tournament for all those teams:

2014	Michigan	78
2014	Duke	73
2015	Notre Dame	109
2016	Duke	87
2017	UCLA	81
2018	Wichita St.	109
2021	Ohio St.	76
2022	Purdue	102
2023	Baylor	92

Actually and perhaps not surprisingly, most of these teams defensive ranks got worse in the tournament. They just became even more one sided when having to face good teams.

 

[SDcatfan13]

That 2015 game was all rock fight calipari with it being played in 60s.

It's a shame Calipari didn't utilize this year's system with that team.

With the depth and offensive talent that year, I think they would have averaged 80 plus a game and gone undefeated.

 

[dl51344]

The problem is Cal will never try any thing but what he has always done. I definitely could be wrong but history points that way.

 

[know1]

Pre vs Post I think for the general point remains the same. Just out of curiosity there's the defensive rankings pre tournament for all those teams:

2014	Michigan	78
2014	Duke	73
2015	Notre Dame	109
2016	Duke	87
2017	UCLA	81
2018	Wichita St.	109
2021	Ohio St.	76
2022	Purdue	102
2023	Baylor	92

Actually and perhaps not surprisingly, most of these teams defensive ranks got worse in the tournament. They just became even more one sided when having to face good teams.

Yep - kind of shows the same thing. If your ranking is that low, you likely aren't getting past the Sweet 16.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Yep - kind of shows the same thing. If your ranking is that low, you likely aren't getting past the Sweet 16.

Yep and I think it also shows that we might be overrating these type of teams coming into the tournament. Cause despite this complete one sidedness, these teams are still getting really really good seeds. It's not as if these teams are bad seeds and no wonder they don't make the S16, these teams are getting bounced earlier than their seeds would suggest they should be.

I remember 2017. When we got the 2 seed and people were freaking out because they put UCLA as our 3 seed. I wasn't worried about that game at all. Cause they were just so extremely one sided. I was more concerned about overall Kenpom 8th ranked Wichtia St being given a 10 seed. Sure enough we beat UCLA by double digits that year and only beat Wichita St by 3.

Balanced teams just do better with this stuff.

 

[know1]

Yep and I think it also shows that we might be overrating these type of teams coming into the tournament. Cause despite this complete one sidedness, these teams are still getting really really good seeds. It's not as if these teams are bad seeds and no wonder they don't make the S16, these teams are getting bounced earlier than their seeds would suggest they should be.

I remember 2017. When we got the 2 seed and people were freaking out because they put UCLA as our 3 seed. I wasn't worried about that game at all. Cause they were just so extremely one sided. I was more concerned about overall Kenpom 8th ranked Wichtia St being given a 10 seed. Sure enough we beat UCLA by double digits that year and only beat Wichita St by 3.

Balanced teams just do better with this stuff.

Agreed. Imagine if they'd gotten a little bit worse seed like we probably will. Likely very few would have gotten past the round of 32.

 

[USARMYWILDCAT]

I think we can win the whole thing if Cal steps down.

We have the most talented roster in college.
Size, speed, athleticism, great guards, shooting.

Just a below average head coach.

We wouldn’t have all that talent if it wasn’t for the head coach. It sucks but there’s two sides to everything.

 

[EliteBlue]

That Notre Dame team won the ACC tournament and beat Duke (2015 national champs) twice. They were really fun to watch.

Gave us all we wanted as well in the E8

 

[Creed Bratton]

And no 16 seed had ever beaten a 1 seed, until they did, twice.

Why you guys constantly look for negative shit to parade around is, frankly, quite interesting. The team is fun, and when they play like they did last night, I don't see a team who would beat them.

Maybe quit trying to prognosticate and let the season play out, and heaven forbid, enjoy a game along the way.

I'm glad we won but you might want to reign it in a little but. I mean we were playing the 238th team in the NET rankings not a top 10 team.

 

[Lempface]

I'm glad we won but you might want to reign it in a little but. I mean we were playing the 238th team in the NET rankings not a top 10 team.

The statement wasn't related to last night's performance specifically. We're not gonna shoot 80% from 3 in a half reliably, but when it happens I don't care who you are, you're gonna lose.

In games we've lost, yeah the defense had been better but we've flat missed the same looks.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I am not disagreeing but think it is important to note that in four of our six losses we averaged 12.25 made threes on 37% from 3 point range. The made 3 pointers is better than the team leader in the country (12.1) and the percentage would be in the top 25 in the country, both of which are very respectable. The 2 exceptions were UNCW and South Carolina which we not only took less 3 point shots but shot it much worse. I think it shows it goes much deeper than the fact that we missed 3 point looks in all of our losses.

 

[ukjenning44]

We wouldn’t have all that talent if it wasn’t for the head coach. It sucks but there’s two sides to everything.

I’d take much less talent and someone that can actually coach. Cal loses to much less talented teams too often.
People said we needed to see what he did with this team and he’s failing again as always.

 

[Runnin'Ramel]

It's a shame Calipari didn't utilize this year's system with that team.

With the depth and offensive talent that year, I think they would have averaged 80 plus a game and gone undefeated.

That team is going to be "the one" in discussions for all-time "how did they not win a title" in college basketball even 50 years from now. I'll never get over it.