To everybody looking for a bridge to jump...

[kydmb99]

This team will basically be what we've seen in the post 2015 era under Cal:

A good team that's 1 or 2 players away from being elite. Goes into the tournament as one of those "dangerous" teams that isn't a #1 seed and then loses before the Final Four.

That is basically what Kentucky is now.

 

[track42]

Just being realistic it looks like next season has some major holes.

 

[Baller Cal]

Forget who is gone. Who is still here?

* Kentucky will have Davion Mintz, a red-shirt senior point guard who started for a high-D-1 team in a better conference top-to-bottom than the SEC and has played (very well) in an NCAA tournament game.

* Kentucky may well have Matt Haarms, a starter on a team that came within a fluke play by Virginia of going to the Final Four in 2019, and who scored 18 points, with 9 rebounds, in an NCAA tournament win over defending champion Villanova.

* Kentucky will have sophomore 5-star Keion Brooks, who looks poised to have a break out year. And Dontaie Allen, a kid who scored like a machine in high school, will be healthy.

* Kentucky might have EJ Montgomery, a 5-star, 6'10'' forward back.

* Kentucky will have two top 5 recruits in Boston and Clarke who are pretty close to can't miss. These are guys rated in the same range as guys like Fox, Monk, Murray, etc.

* Kentucky will have four other very good recruits -- a 5-star point guard in Devin Askew and three other guys in Fletcher, Ware and Jackson who could be contributors as freshmen.

* Hell, if Cal sees a hole in all that, he'll add someone else.

I'm not seeing the reason to panic. That's very possibly a Final Four roster.

Good post........

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

If we bring back EJ, I'll feel exponentially better.

If not, we'll only have one guy returning who has any in-game experience in Cal's system.

That's not good.

For those who want to contradict this last point, I'm sure some of you felt really optimistic before the '13, '16', and '18 seasons as well, right?

The roster construction --from a talent level -- is similar to those teams - plenty of young second tier talent with two first tier guys and not much experience. We'll have two really good pieces, and a bunch of "maybes" surrounding them. If we've learned anything as Kentucky fans, going into a season where 80+% of your roster potential is guided through the lens of "if they outperform expectations", it's not necessarily the best thing.

I think if we lose EJ and add Haarms, we're likely looking at 25 to 28 wins and we'll make some real noise in the first two or three rounds of the tournament. Anything beyond that will be a surprise.

 

[MdWIldcat55]

Just being realistic it looks like next season has some major holes.

As opposed to all those teams in college basketball with no holes like, well, you go ahead and name them.

If your 'holes' are at PG where you have a very competent former starter at the high D-1 level and a 5-star recruit, and center where you have a 5-star recruit and a guy (if he signs) who started on a team that fell just outside the Final Four, then I'm waiting to see the teams with smaller, fewer holes.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

I appreciate your optimism OP. I just don’t see a FF as “very possible” with that roster. Could we make it if the bracket breaks perfectly and we hit some lucky shots? sure.

OP's post represents the absolute zenith of a reasonable optimistic outlook regarding next year, which is perfectly fine.

I think the reality, minus a surprise addition like Kuminga, is that we win about 26 or 27 games and end up looking strangely familiar to that 2018 team - a team that ultimately fell back upon its equilibrium by the end of the season.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

EJ stands for everybodies jumpin

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

As opposed to all those teams in college basketball with no holes like, well, you go ahead and name them.

If your 'holes' are at PG where you have a very competent former starter at the high D-1 level and a 5-star recruit, and center where you have a 5-star recruit and a guy (if he signs) who started on a team that fell just outside the Final Four, then I'm waiting to see the teams with smaller, fewer holes.

The days of overwhelming opposing teams for 5 or 6 tournament games might be over (although 2018 Villanova looked the part). As you well know, it's not just about having enough on-paper talent to make it happen. Obviously it's also about blending and cohesively coming together for 6 games against high level teams. Having enough talent to make up for occasional off nights (SGA's performance against Kansas State; Monk's performance against UNC; Knight's performance against UConn) is an absolute essential. Having three guys capable of taking over a game is probably the first element of that essential if you don't have the cohesiveness that comes with a group of veterans who have a number of years playing together. In a tournament decided by inches, you need the skilled weaponry that can get through the narrowest of margins.

Will Kentucky find that third guy who we can consistently depend upon? I think that question is only answered firmly through Cal's perspective, and one that we'll be hearing more about in a week or two. If Haarms commits and Cal says, "our class is now officially complete" -- or something to that effect -- I feel like we'll have our answer.

But if we find him continuing to pursue guys deep into the summer (Kuminga, Cisse) like he did with Dante last year, it will mean he sees a real hole in the roster.

Time will tell.

 

[Sparkaces1]

OP's post represents the absolute zenith of a reasonable optimistic outlook regarding next year, which is perfectly fine.

I think the reality, minus a surprise addition like Kuminga, is that we win about 26 or 27 games and end up looking strangely familiar to that 2018 team - a team that ultimately fell back upon its equilibrium by the end of the season.

The 2018 had no real experience. Here, at worst UK has a grad transfer PG who started over 70 games and more than likely another grad transfer who started in the Elite 8. Plus just based on projections Boston and Clarke are projected above Knox and SGA and as everybody knows in general a top 5 pick is is at another level than late lottery pick.

 

[JerseyCat84]

NCAAT
the T is for TITLE...not tournament
i can see the confusion

gotcha no prob

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

The 2018 had no real experience. Here, at worst UK has a grad transfer PG who started over 70 games and more than likely another grad transfer who started in the Elite 8. Plus just based on projections Boston and Clarke are projected above Knox and SGA and as everybody knows in general a top 5 pick is is at another level than late lottery pick.

So you think Clarke and Boston will give us more than the combined 30 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game Knox and SGA gave us?

It's unlikely they match those numbers, but even if they do, the 2018 team shows us that more is needed than two head masters surrounded by a cohort of projects and role players.

And I'm not sure you would have taken the role players on next year's team over those of guys like Diallo (5 star), Vanderbilt (5 star), Washington (5 star), Gabriel (5 star), Green (top 30), Baker, SKJ (top 30), and Richards (5 star) if you could go back before the 2018 season and analyze the roster construction on both teams - even from an experience gap level.

 

[catsfanbgky]

I think you’re being really optimistic, which is fine. But Mintz is a role player here. Which we need. But I think you might be expecting a little much from him.

Mintz will start over Askew. Askew is NOT ready to be the starter day 1. he will take some time, maybe a couple years. it is not fair to put that expectation on the kid. he is not ready. Mintz IS ready, he is proven, and done it three years in a Power 5 conference against legit competition. Where to you get Askew whom has never played a minute in college is more ready than a guy who has played three years and is proven ? Mintz is not some scrub out of the YMCA, he can ball. Creighton had a very balanced team in 18/19, he was not in a a do it all / have to situation.

And LOL at the one poster listing Fletcher as a shooting guard. Where TF do some of you get this shit ? Fletcher I think will be the 3rd best player signed, and is vastly underrated, he will be a beast, can't wait to watch him prosper, but a shooting guard he is not. He is a high flying, rim running beast of a athlete who can impact both ends of the floor.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Mintz will start over Askew. Askew is NOT ready to be the starter day 1. he will take some time, maybe a couple years. it is not fair to put that expectation on the kid. he is not ready. Mintz IS ready, he is proven, and done it three years in a Power 5 conference against legit competition. Where to you get Askew whom has never played a minute in college is more ready than a guy who has played three years and is proven ? Mintz is not some scrub out of the YMCA, he can ball. Creighton had a very balanced team in 18/19, he was not in a a do it all / have to situation.

And LOL at the one poster listing Fletcher as a shooting guard. Where TF do some of you get this shit ? Fletcher I think will be the 3rd best player signed, and is vastly underrated, he will be a beast, can't wait to watch him prosper, but a shooting guard he is not. He is a high flying, rim running beast of a athlete who can impact both ends of the floor.

That balanced Creighton team lost 15 games in 2018-2019.

 

[catsfanbgky]

Fletcher will be that 3rd guy. Boston, Clarke and Fletcher will be a very solid threesome. get some positive production from Brooks, Mintz, and (hopefully EJ comes back), and we will be right there.

PG - Mintz / Askew
2G - Boston / Mintz / Allen
Wing - Clarke / Fletcher/ Allen
PF - EJ / Brooks / Ware / Fletcher
C - EJ / Jackson /

 

[CB3UK]

Matt Haarms wasnt even the starter on a Purdue team that just went .500

people are over hyping him already and we havent even landed him...

This is my problem with all this 100%.
We see the same "wont you guys ever learn" posts from the pumper crowd.

Well, to the pumpers, I say, wont you ever learn? Weve been following this formula for the last 5-6 yrs and gotten what...Elite 8 and 2 SEC titles? I mean....its about where Tubby was. Wake up.

Youve got a guy whos expected to be a role player at the most important position coming in and folks say hes the savior and we are title bound. Well, if hes getting rhat much PT, that means our ballyhooed OAD rookie hasnt panned out. Thats not a recipe for success or optimism in the real world.

And Ill be glad to have Haarms. But he didnt even start for Purdue. Again...hes coming for bench depth. He isnt the answer to replace a starting big man.

If you people are totally satisfied with merely being ranked and being in the conversation then just say so. But quit calling those of us who point out the patently obvious and inherent flaws in all this haters because we see clear as day it wont get us to the Final Four or a natty. Wake the **** up BBN.

 

[Sparkaces1]

That balanced Creighton team lost 15 games in 2018-2019.

Creighton was 21-12 when he was a sophomore STARTER and he had 10/6/3, 2/2 from three against K State in NCAA tourny!

 

[fatguy87]

So you think Clarke and Boston will give us more than the combined 30 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game Knox and SGA gave us?

It's unlikely they match those numbers, but even if they do, the 2018 team shows us that more is needed than two head masters surrounded by a cohort of projects and role players.

And I'm not sure you would have taken the role players on next year's team over those of guys like Diallo (5 star), Vanderbilt (5 star), Washington (5 star), Gabriel (5 star), Green (top 30), Baker, SKJ (top 30), and Richards (5 star) if you could go back before the 2018 season and analyze the roster construction on both teams - even from an experience gap level.

Clarke/Boston/Fletcher/Askew production becomes more realistic to achieve or surpass that of Knox and SGA when you consider the number of missed shots by Knox and other ways to contribute in the box score. Knox contributed pretty much just shot volume. He was a mediocre rebounder from the 3, couldn't set up a teammate, and lacked solid ball handling. Really, his limited ball handling probably contributed to a number of offensive deficiencies including his lack of playmaking ability and reliance on inefficient jump shots.

Heck, lets say Clarke and Boston are just as good as SGA and Knox. Next years team can still be better if they don't have to play "bad" players in the rotation. The 2018 team had to play 2 players in the backcourt who were bad. Quade and Hami both weren't very good and each averaged about 25 minutes per game. Replace a bad freshman with an average Calipari freshman on that 2018 team who can gobble up over 30 minutes in the back court per game, and the team gets a major upgrade without acquiring another star.

In other words, what if Clarke and Boston aren't as good as Knox and SGA, but Clarke/Boston/Askew/Fletcher/Mintz are better than SGA/Quade/Hami/Knox? That's a realistic scenario of the 2021 team being better than the 2018 squad without requiring the Boston/Clarke duo being better than SGA/Knox.

If we get Haarms on the team or return EJ, I'd say the chances of the 2021 team being better than the 2018 are much better than 50/50.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Creighton was 21-12 when he was a sophomore STARTER and he had 10/6/3, 2/2 from three against K State in NCAA tourny!

I'm hoping he excels here.

 

[Wildcat-in-STL]

Clarke/Boston/Fletcher/Askew production becomes more realistic to achieve or surpass that of Knox and SGA when you consider the number of missed shots by Knox and other ways to contribute in the box score. Knox contributed pretty much just shot volume. He was a mediocre rebounder from the 3, couldn't set up a teammate, and lacked solid ball handling. Really, his limited ball handling probably contributed to a number of offensive deficiencies including his lack of playmaking ability and reliance on inefficient jump shots.

Heck, lets say Clarke and Boston are just as good as SGA and Knox. Next years team can still be better if they don't have to play "bad" players in the rotation. The 2018 team had to play 2 players in the backcourt who were bad. Quade and Hami both weren't very good and each averaged about 25 minutes per game. Replace a bad freshman with an average Calipari freshman on that 2018 team who can gobble up over 30 minutes in the back court per game, and the team gets a major upgrade without acquiring another star.

In other words, what if Clarke and Boston aren't as good as Knox and SGA, but Clarke/Boston/Askew/Fletcher/Mintz are better than SGA/Quade/Hami/Knox? That's a realistic scenario of the 2021 team being better than the 2018 squad without requiring the Boston/Clarke duo being better than SGA/Knox.

What makes you think Askew and Fletcher will be ready for contributing in college in year 1?

 

[fatguy87]

What makes you think Askew and Fletcher will be ready for contributing in college in year 1?

They may contribute, they may not. When I grouped them together in that example, it's not an assumption that they will play, but rather the probability that the collective would be more or less productive than the 2018 group. That entails each and every probability of ability for the players in the group. Maybe Fletcher and Askew only have a 5% chance to be an average Calipari freshman, but that's still non-zero so it increases the odds of finding a contributor out of the group.

In short, uncertainty. I don't know for sure how good Askew and/or Fletcher will be.

 

[catsfanbgky]

That balanced Creighton team lost 15 games in 2018-2019.

20-15 (9-9 Big East (3rd) 18-19 season.

18-19 season (Jr.) 35 games Started all 35. All starters where DD scorers, (well he was 9.7, round up to 10).

16-17 (fresh) 29 games Started 12. 12 mpg. 3.3 ppg / 1.8 apg / 1.1 rpg
17-18 (soph) 33 games Started 32. 21 mpg. 6.1 ppg / 3.1 apg / 3.2 rpg
18-19 (Jr.) 35 games Started 35. 29 mpg. 9.7 ppg / 3.0 apg / 3.1 rpg

Now he had a year off and after the injury had to work on his game. lets just say he makes his normal progression he did from freshman to JR.

20-21 stats would be 13ppg / 4 apg / 4 rpg.

Keep in mind he SHOULD be the starter as Askew is NOT ready. Getting starter minutes, like at Creighton, he is fine with being the 4th / 5th scorer. Imagine the weapons around him at UK, something he did not have at Creighton, he would / could get any shot he wants as teams will try to stop Boston and Clarke. Those numbers above are VERY realistic.

Guess the player with these stats.
30 games 11.5 PPG / 3.9 RPG / 6.4 APG / 3.4 turnovers per game.
40% 2FG / 25.8% 3FG.











2019-20 Ashton Hagans.

So you tell me, would you rather have the guy shooting 40/25 numbers with 4 to's per game shooting as much as he did, and leading the team turning it over as much as he did ? Or have a guy who doesn't care about padding stats and trying to show scouts what he can / can't do , and just trying to make a winning basketball play and doesn't care about headlines ??? he knows he is not an NBA player, but a really steady COLLEGE player. Give me the 5th year guy who just wants to lead the team, not try to impress NBA scouts.

But hey, he is not a 5 Star Burger Boy, just a kid who worked his ass off and keeps getting better, all while doing it on a mediocre team with not a lot of talent on it, playing in a very good (better than SEC) power 5 conference. this kid didn't do that at Sienna or Holy Cross.

 

[K_TIME]

And Mintz wasn't going to be a starter at Creighton which is why he left. Yet, somehow these two guys are going to be the saviors that lead next year's team to #9....it's nonsense.

Agreed...we have to put perspective on Mintz/Haarms as grad transfers.

1. Reid Travis was a starter and PAC 10 player of the year. Sestina was a starter but not a star in American Conference.
2. I'd imagine these two guys, while completely different players, are not going to close as good as Reid Travis and more in line with the kind of impact Sestina...which was a player with heavy limitations but at times added a piece we needed at times....but Nate was not even close to being a starter level player and good for last year's team that he was a bench player.

So we need to hope EJ comes back in a big way to be starting C up front along with Brooks at PF....and Haarms is purely a bench player and not starting.
Mintz is a harder call...Clarke/Boston can be the main shooters and playmakers to minimize his limitations as a PG. I am not sure what to expect with Askew...but I'm hoping the Askew/Mintz combo can suffice at PG and Mintz strong point can be stronger defensively and a capable shooter from deep.

 

[Sparkaces1]

So you think Clarke and Boston will give us more than the combined 30 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game Knox and SGA gave us?

It's unlikely they match those numbers, but even if they do, the 2018 team shows us that more is needed than two head masters surrounded by a cohort of projects and role players.

And I'm not sure you would have taken the role players on next year's team over those of guys like Diallo (5 star), Vanderbilt (5 star), Washington (5 star), Gabriel (5 star), Green (top 30), Baker, SKJ (top 30), and Richards (5 star) if you could go back before the 2018 season and analyze the roster construction on both teams - even from an experience gap level.

I would be very surprised if Clarke/Boston don't score more than 30 combined, rebounds should be close. These guys are gonna be playing 30 plus minutes most likely.

 

[Cowtown Cat]

I have seen people compare this team to the Zion team minus Zion lol! Basically Barrett and Reddish = Boston & Clarke. The only issue there is while Reddish was a great talent he certainly didn't play to his potential, he didn't even play in the loss to Mich St. I think for this team to max out both guys not only need to be potential top 5 picks but also play like it during the year!

Give me Boston and Clarke over Barrett and Reddish 100 times out of 100. Like you said, Reddish just never really played to his potential for duke. Be it the lack of motor or him being the odd man out, he just wasn’t that effective. I think Boston and Clarke will be ten times the players at U.K. than Reddish was at duke.

Now Barrett was a different story. He was a damn good player in college and put up impressive numbers. I still think Clarke is a better player, though. I can almost guarantee Clarke and Boston will both be much more unselfish players at UK than Barrett was at duke. Also, Barrett didn’t have a very high character. Dude was an absolute bag. No wonder he went to college where he did. Bags flock to that phony school.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

I would be very surprised if Clarke/Boston don't score more than 30 combined, rebounds should be close. These guys are gonna be playing 30 plus minutes most likely.

I hope you're right. It's hard to put up those type of numbers. We've only had a handful of freshmen be able to score 16+ points/game: Murray, Wall, Knight, Monk, Fox.

Clarke and Boston look like they have the potential to do it, however. I still contend that they need a third guy. Wall had Patterson and Cousins. Monk and Fox had each other and Bam. Knight had Jones and Lamb. Murray really only had Ulis, and that's why they fizzled out in the 2nd round when Murray went cold.

We need another stud.

 

[Sparkaces1]

I hope you're right. It's hard to put up those type of numbers. We've only had a handful of freshmen be able to score 16+ points/game: Murray, Wall, Knight, Monk, Fox.

Clarke and Boston look like they have the potential to do it, however. I still contend that they need a third guy. Wall had Patterson and Cousins. Monk and Fox had each other and Bam. Knight had Jones and Lamb. Murray really only had Ulis, and that's why they fizzled out in the 2nd round when Murray went cold.

We need another stud.

I agree with you there! Brooks has a chance!

 

[caneintally]

Forget who is gone. Who is still here?

* Kentucky will have Davion Mintz, a red-shirt senior point guard who started for a high-D-1 team in a better conference top-to-bottom than the SEC and has played (very well) in an NCAA tournament game.

* Kentucky may well have Matt Haarms, a starter on a team that came within a fluke play by Virginia of going to the Final Four in 2019, and who scored 18 points, with 9 rebounds, in an NCAA tournament win over defending champion Villanova.

* Kentucky will have sophomore 5-star Keion Brooks, who looks poised to have a break out year. And Dontaie Allen, a kid who scored like a machine in high school, will be healthy.

* Kentucky might have EJ Montgomery, a 5-star, 6'10'' forward back.

* Kentucky will have two top 5 recruits in Boston and Clarke who are pretty close to can't miss. These are guys rated in the same range as guys like Fox, Monk, Murray, etc.

* Kentucky will have four other very good recruits -- a 5-star point guard in Devin Askew and three other guys in Fletcher, Ware and Jackson who could be contributors as freshmen.

* Hell, if Cal sees a hole in all that, he'll add someone else.

I'm not seeing the reason to panic. That's very possibly a Final Four roster.

I am saying Duh is the word that comes to mind when reading this post. But some people need something to bitch about . The only mild surprise would be EJ staying in the draft . ( not entering it as he will ) . But we have 10 studs even without him. Askew/Clarke/Boston/Brooks/Haarms might be the best starting 5 in cbb and Mintz allen Jackson Fletcher and Ware are a great bench . We will be a top 5 preseason team and with EJ more like 3.

 

[caneintally]

Also Boston might very well win POY nationally . At worst be in the running . Bottom line any team with Clarke and Boston is a top 10 team.

 

[IrishMike409]

We’re loaded. Final Four is absolutely a possibility. Can’t wait for November!

 

[Cowtown Cat]

Imagine being Michigan

I keep seeing this in this thread. I’ve not been keeping up with opposing teams. What’s the deal on Michigan? They have several departures or something?

 

[cornbreadnmilk]

My expectations for next season have lowered.IMO just don't see a true championship contender with this group.Just losing too much.

 

[Bigblueamdyou]

I keep seeing this in this thread. I’ve not been keeping up with opposing teams. What’s the deal on Michigan? They have several departures or something?

They lost 2 prize recruits,Christopher going to Arizona state and todd going overseas

 

[Cowtown Cat]

They lost 2 prize recruits,Christopher going to Arizona state and todd going overseas

Damn I didn’t even realize Christopher has announced. I’ve been so busy with my “honey do list” on my long weekend here at the house. I also hadn’t heard about Todd going overseas. Damn, I sure am glad Todd didn’t come here. Maybe Cal has a bad feeling on him.

Edit: Yeah, losing those two took them from a potentially great team to mediocre.

 

[JesusCal89]

Next years team is gonna be loaded Boston and Clarke are the best players we've had since fox and adebayo. This the time of year when fans love to piss and moan. By the time practice starts you'll be expecting an undefeated season again

 

[STL_Cat]

Also Boston might very well win POY nationally . At worst be in the running . Bottom line any team with Clarke and Boston is a top 10 team.

There’s the super homer.

 

[deep3]

You’re somebody enamored by the stars next to their name. We need basketball players not flashy high school dunkers.

You sir

 

[deep3]

Let me ask you this then:
How would you feel about next year if all these guys coming in were 3 star players?

If they can play, I don’t give a shit what star they are.

 

[NC Weasel]

Let me add one more take to the discussion as far as the future.

We don't know yet the impact of both the NBA rule change on draft eligibility or the NCAA rule change on transfer eligibility over the next 3-5 or even 8 years. Could be good for us, could be negative.

However, fairness would indicate that Coach Cal tends to be a leader, not a follower, when it comes to off court coaching. So we should all agree the odds are in our favor for a number early in the timeline until others can catch up. Fair enough?

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

Also Boston might very well win POY nationally . At worst be in the running . Bottom line any team with Clarke and Boston is a top 10 team.

Or he might average 10 points/game and utterly disappoint your lofty expectations of him.

 

[TheBlueMax]

Forget who is gone. Who is still here?

* Kentucky will have Davion Mintz, a red-shirt senior point guard who started for a high-D-1 team in a better conference top-to-bottom than the SEC and has played (very well) in an NCAA tournament game.

* Kentucky may well have Matt Haarms, a starter on a team that came within a fluke play by Virginia of going to the Final Four in 2019, and who scored 18 points, with 9 rebounds, in an NCAA tournament win over defending champion Villanova.

* Kentucky will have sophomore 5-star Keion Brooks, who looks poised to have a break out year. And Dontaie Allen, a kid who scored like a machine in high school, will be healthy.

* Kentucky might have EJ Montgomery, a 5-star, 6'10'' forward back.

* Kentucky will have two top 5 recruits in Boston and Clarke who are pretty close to can't miss. These are guys rated in the same range as guys like Fox, Monk, Murray, etc.

* Kentucky will have four other very good recruits -- a 5-star point guard in Devin Askew and three other guys in Fletcher, Ware and Jackson who could be contributors as freshmen.

* Hell, if Cal sees a hole in all that, he'll add someone else.

I'm not seeing the reason to panic. That's very possibly a Final Four roster.

I just want a bridge to next year...