The myth of beating a team three times is hard

[sportspm]

I rewatched the game in Rupp. We lead most the game but I had forgotten, UT actually took the lead late. We were actually down two with around 3:30 to play and Brea took over, hit 2 long 3’s, the first one put us back on top by 1. And he made a beautiful lob pass to Oweh for the dunk.
Also of note, Noah hit three 3’s in that game and scored 11 points. I think Perry had 7 points. Chandler wasn’t playing as well then vs. now.

 

[BluPappi81]

It's just one those old wife's tales we have passed down over the years. The actual numbers tell a verry different story.

Excellent find! Let’s go get that sweep!

 

[Smashcat]

I guess Seth learned his lesson.

 

[KyCPA]

It's just one those old wife's tales we have passed down over the years. The actual numbers tell a verry different story.

What does that look like when you only look at situations where the losing team was the higher ranked team. Bet it's different. I hope we win though.

 

[BBNinSC]

I have a lot of confidence in our coaching staff with 4-5 days to prepare for one team.
If you shut down Ziegler and Lanier, Tennessee is very beatable. We have the 2 guys to do that.

 

[ukcatz12]

What does that look like when you only look at situations where the losing team was the higher ranked team. Bet it's different. I hope we win though.

One of the main college basketball youtube channels said beating a team three times in one season when that team was ranked in the top 10 each time has only happened like once or twice in the last 20 years.

The opening stats are kind of meaningless because it removes all context of how good the teams were.

 

[Fox2monk]

It's just one those old wife's tales we have passed down over the years. The actual numbers tell a verry different story.

Let’s hope we finish in the 711th win!

 

[IbnSaran]

I rewatched the game in Rupp. We lead most the game but I had forgotten, UT actually took the lead late. We were actually down two with around 3:30 to play and Brea took over, hit 2 long 3’s, the first one put us back on top by 1. And he made a beautiful lob pass to Oweh for the dunk.
Also of note, Noah hit three 3’s in that game and scored 11 points. I think Perry had 7 points. Chandler wasn’t playing as well then vs. now.

Noah was 3 for 4 and Perry was 2 for 3 from three in the game at lexington. Also in both games we hit 12 of 24 three pointers. Noah was also the highest +/- at 18.

 

[UKSanders]

I don't fully get the argument it's so hard to beat a team 3 times... doesn't this happen every year in the NBA (and NHL) playoffs? I mean, you have to win at least 3 games to advance, and teams get swept all the time.

I know it's different leagues, and I'm not saying it will be as easy win... just saying that teams win 3 games against other teams all the time.

 

[NerlensCat]

I don't fully get the argument it's so hard to beat a team 3 times... doesn't this happen every year in the NBA (and NHL) playoffs? I mean, you have to win at least 3 games to advance, and teams get swept all the time.

I know it's different leagues, and I'm not saying it will be as easy win... just saying that teams win 3 games against other teams all the time.

The issue is winning 3 straight games in one season. In the NBA, it is 4 out of 7. In that scenario, a team could win 3 games and still lose the series. Here the 3rd game is a winner takes all scenario. Quite a bit different situation.

 

[d2atTech]

If youre good enough to beat them twice youre good enough to beat them three times

#end thread

 

[83Cat]

It's just one those old wife's tales we have passed down over the years. The actual numbers tell a verry different story.

We need to start practicing today in a football stadium to get the feel of that odd lack of backdrop.

 

[Girthang]

Matchups, matchups matchups

That's what I was just going to post.

In 97 we were swept in 3 games by virtually the same team in USCj and AZ, (even though we should have beaten AZ with a few free throws made).

It's always about matchups in sports. If you match up well the first two times, and you've got the same roster, you should match up well again. Just have to play with the intensity and focus you need for 40 min the 3rd time. That's the bigger issue for student athletes, I think. Not thinking you got this in the bag just showing up is foundational.

 

[The_Answer1313]

I look at it like this.

They say it because statistically it's hard to do anything three times in a row when the odds are each game is about even.

Say you flipped a coin. The odds of it coming up heads three times in a row is ........ 12.5%

However, say you flipped the coin twice already and it came up heads. The 3rd time the odds of getting a heads is still 50%. They are independent events of one another.

The odds of UK winning this game is the exact same that the odds would be had UK lost the previous games IMO.

The reason why the study in the OP is so pro a 3rd win is because those aren't 50/50 games for the most part. You beat a team twice in the regular season, most of the time you are the better team and probably by quite a bit of margin given that one of those wins would have been on the road at their place.

With UT/UK, that's obviously not the case here. UT had a better season. We just happened to play better in those two games (matchup? maybe).

 

[UKSanders]

The issue is winning 3 straight games in one season. In the NBA, it is 4 out of 7. In that scenario, a team could win 3 games and still lose the series. Here the 3rd game is a winner takes all scenario. Quite a bit different situation.

yeah, I understand that, which is why I referenced teams in the playoffs getting swept b/c that isn't just best of 7... it's 3 (or 4) straight.

Again, this game will not be easy, so the Cats must still play a great game to win... I was just speaking to the fact that ANY team beating another 3 consecutive times isn't all that rare.

 

[NerlensCat]

yeah, I understand that, which is why I referenced teams in the playoffs getting swept b/c that isn't just best of 7... it's 3 (or 4) straight.

Again, this game will not be easy, so the Cats must still play a great game to win... I was just speaking to the fact that ANY team beating another 3 consecutive times isn't all that rare.

The teams that get swept in the NBA are no where near as good as the team they are playing. In this case, KY and TN are really tossups at least from a ranking perspective.

Personally, I really believe KY is the better team when healthy with the matchups in their favor, which is why I think KY wins.

 

[cardkilla]

It's just one those old wife's tales we have passed down over the years. The actual numbers tell a verry different story.

well this makes me feel alot better now...i can sleep this week

 

[HalHR2500]

The first two games have no bearing on this game, but I love the matchup

 

[M4CAT]

Not only did UK beat Tennessee in Rupp, won on their floor without Robinson and Carr checked in for 1 minute. This is a good match up for UK. It took some time, but UK has learned to play without Robinson and Butler has got back up to speed. Chandler is a much improved player since that last win over UT at Rupp where he only got 3 minutes. I understand not wanting to get cocky, but the people afraid now were saying Tennessee would get revenge in Rupp. Didn't happen.

 

[JonathanW]

We have to assume Barnes/UT will make adjustments to combat what we did defensively, to get Lanier open shots. We have to anticipate and adjust!

 

[Smashcat]

Interesting factoid.

 

[CincinnatiWildcat]

I look at it like this.

They say it because statistically it's hard to do anything three times in a row when the odds are each game is about even.

Say you flipped a coin. The odds of it coming up heads three times in a row is ........ 12.5%

However, say you flipped the coin twice already and it came up heads. The 3rd time the odds of getting a heads is still 50%. They are independent events of one another.

The odds of UK winning this game is the exact same that the odds would be had UK lost the previous games IMO.

The reason why the study in the OP is so pro a 3rd win is because those aren't 50/50 games for the most part. You beat a team twice in the regular season, most of the time you are the better team and probably by quite a bit of margin given that one of those wins would have been on the road at their place.

With UT/UK, that's obviously not the case here. UT had a better season. We just happened to play better in those two games (matchup? maybe).

If you play a team twice and beat them that is a heavy indicator you will beat them if you play a third time.

It’s that simple, we don’t need to look at what each team does in their free time or how they played against other teams or any other variable you can imagine. The thing that is going to happen already happened twice and that is the best indicator for what will happen the next time.

 

[kywildcatsfannumber1]

WLKY in Louisville has David Padgett reviewing the games. First thing he says is the same tired ass talking point we've heard from everyone all week. Hard to beat a team 3 times. I know the Cats are fed up with hearing people use this line over and over to count them out. That logic makes it seem like it all of a sudden becomes easy for the team that lost twice to win and has the advantage. If you need that as a revenge factor/motivation to advance in a win or go home tournament, that is troubling. Bullshit narrative.

 

[The_Answer1313]

If you play a team twice and beat them that is a heavy indicator you will beat them if you play a third time.

It’s that simple, we don’t need to look at what each team does in their free time or how they played against other teams or any other variable you can imagine. The thing that is going to happen already happened twice and that is the best indicator for what will happen the next time.

That's not really accurate or true at all but ok.

 

[The_Answer1313]

WLKY in Louisville has David Padgett reviewing the games. First thing he says is the same tired ass talking point we've heard from everyone all week. Hard to beat a team 3 times. I know the Cats are fed up with hearing people use this line over and over to count them out. Like it all of a sudden becomes easy for the team that lost twice to now win? If you need that as a revenge factor/motivation to advance in a win or go home team, that is troubling. Bullshit narrative.

That's why its a BS narrative each way lol.

It's not hard for UK to beat UT a third time. It's hard for UK to beat UT because UT is a pretty good team. That's all. It's the same the other way around.

Odds of UK winning this game = about 35%-40% (strictly based on the line of the game).
Odds of UK winning this game had they lost the previous games vs UT = also 35%-40%

Has no bearing on things.

 

[michaeluk26]

That's what I was just going to post.

In 97 we were swept in 3 games by virtually the same team in USCj and AZ, (even though we should have beaten AZ with a few free throws made).

It's always about matchups in sports. If you match up well the first two times, and you've got the same roster, you should match up well again. Just have to play with the intensity and focus you need for 40 min the 3rd time. That's the bigger issue for student athletes, I think. Not thinking you got this in the bag just showing up is foundational.

I was at the loss to South Carolina in 97, I was 12. It was the first time we'd lost on senior night in over 3 decades I'm pretty sure. They had a 3 guard lineup that was tough for us stylistically. They were supposed to have a ceremony after the game but Mercer and Epps came out and said they wasn't gonna do it but they promised they'd cut down the nets for us in the tournament and damn how close they came.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

I was at the loss to South Carolina in 97, I was 12. It was the first time we'd lost on senior night in over 3 decades I'm pretty sure. They had a 3 guard lineup that was tough for us stylistically. They were supposed to have a ceremony after the game but Mercer and Epps came out and said they wasn't gonna do it but they promised they'd cut down the nets for us in the tournament and damn how close they came.

I was at that game too.

Mainly for the planned ceremony after the game.


Pitino got so mad he cancelled the after party. 😜

 

[michaeluk26]

I was at that game too.

Mainly for the planned ceremony after the game.


Pitino got so mad he cancelled the after party. 😜

He got ejected at the end didn't he?

 

[UKBB4Ever]

He got ejected at the end didn't he?

I don't remember that if he did. A friend got tickets for the game and just he and I went. But we mainly went because the awards ceremony had been advertised. We didn't have great seats. Upper level front row, mid court. We just knew we were going to beat SC then take in the awards. The "triplets" had a different idea.

That was a team that just had our number and Pitino wouldn't adjust. They went into the tourney as a 2 or 3 seed and I think they lost their first game. We ended up in the title game so we had the last laugh.

 

[runt#69]

I think it was 1986 we had to beat Alabama 4 times, and lost to LSU in the Regional finals on their 4th try. Ricky Blanton nightmares.

...... yesssss......

I followed that team really closely that year, too....

I'm still thinking back to 86

 

[runt#69]

I joined the pool and somehow am at 5th place still when I'm usually out of the tournament after the first game. LOL! How bout that ! Makes it a good birthday day for me. It's been a good day. Glad to get back in time to catch the thursday slate of games.

And who do I have advancing ? nevermind that. and nevermind it's hard to beat a team three times. Bama whupped us good three times this year, as I reckon, and we can do it to the Vols.

But .... Tennessee is obviously going to win this game, right ? They're supposed to. I get it.

I get it. They were like, number one half the year. I get it. Not that we played two times before. And won. We did.

I'm just glad our guys ***think*** they can beat 'em and is confident in saying that, confidently, even publicly.

No streaks of confidence inconsistency here.

Who do they think think gave them a reason to play basketball, ? And chop down trees ?

Go Big Blue !