Stock Market and tariffs

[Tskware]

Long term our technological advantage over most countries will result in robotics performing a lot of the manual task that are currently involved in the low-tech manufacturing the goes on in 2nd and 3rd world countries. So technology will result in a lot return of manufacturing to the states.

Too lazy to look this up but can someone confirm what I think I read recently that there are now more automobiles made in America than ever before in history due mainly to robotics and automation?

 

[Tskware]

By the way what's wrong with the service and entertainment industry? I know plenty of people who have worked their whole career running restaurants and hotels and bars who have raised families sent their kids to private schools Driven nice cars et cetera. It can be hard ass work, but tell me something where you get paid well that isn't hard work?

 

[brianpoe]

^
There are and were pockets of poverty left behind in communities when the manufacturing and mining jobs moved offshore, were automated, or simply dried up (e.g. no more easy coal seams to mine). And we need to continue to help those communities. Same as plenty of other pockets like inner city black people and native americans who have always been poor, with or without manufacturing (another huge topic for another thread)

But at the same time let's not act like in the last fifty years while manufacturing was disappearing, the US didn't found amazing companies like Amazon Apple Nvidia Microsoft Tesla and all the other gigantic companies which have made many many people wealthy and raised our standard of living immeasurably. Which is unquestionably a good thing and better in my opinion than continuing to try to make piece goods the old-fashioned way.

This is true. But what is the education level of Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft employees? How many people that would be working in manufacturing have jobs at these companies? The largest segment of the population have lower earning ceilings in the service industry than they did in manufacturing and are not equipped for employment at high tech employers. As the founder of a software firm we could definitely have a discussion as to why these people are in that situation, but that is totally different animal.

 

[brianpoe]

By the way what's wrong with the service and entertainment industry? I know plenty of people who have worked their whole career running restaurants and hotels and bars who have raised families sent their kids to private schools Driven nice cars et cetera. It can be hard ass work, but tell me something where you get paid well that isn't hard work?

Services are more fragile, more dependent on volatile factors and pay much less than manufacturing jobs. Im not sure that those that own businesses, or even run those business, are considered with the masses of blue collar workers hurt by the void of manufacturing opportunities?

 

[brianpoe]

Too lazy to look this up but can someone confirm what I think I read recently that there are now more automobiles made in America than ever before in history due mainly to robotics and automation?

Peak auto manufacturing was in 1999. We are 30% less today than back then. Automation has more than doubled the production & efficiency per man hour.

 

[Tskware]

This is true. But what is the education level of Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft employees? How many people that would be working in manufacturing have jobs at these companies? The largest segment of the population have lower earning ceilings in the service industry than they did in manufacturing and are not equipped for employment at high tech employers. As the founder of a software firm we could definitely have a discussion as to why these people are in that situation, but that is totally different animal.

Sounds like we should have a beer or 3 soon to discuss these and other issues

 

[Tskware]

Peak auto manufacturing was in 1999. We are 30% less today than back then. Automation has more than doubled the production & efficiency per man hour.

Yes, I just checked and we consistently make about 10 or 11 million units a year and as you said with half the manpower.

 

[UKGrad93]

Yes, I just checked and we consistently make about 10 or 11 million units a year and as you said with half the manpower.

So having tariffs will somehow cause us to go back to using twice as many people to make a car? (I'm not necessarily aiming this at you Tskware)

 

[brianpoe]

Sounds like we should have a beer or 3 soon to discuss these and other issues

I would love that.
To be clear to everyone I do not have some pie in the sky belief that factories will suddenly appear and that the middle class will come storming back anytime soon. I think this is a long game, and I have said many times, it is risky.

 

[brianpoe]

So having tariffs will somehow cause us to go back to using twice as many people to make a car? (I'm not necessarily aiming this at you Tskware)

You should definitely aim this at Tskware, I would love to hear his answer.... lol.

 

[Tskware]

You should definitely aim this at Tskware, I would love to hear his answer.... lol.

You know the answer - obviously NO. Of course it won't

 

[ukcatz12]

I would love that.
To be clear to everyone I do not have some pie in the sky belief that factories will suddenly appear and that the middle class will come storming back anytime soon. I think this is a long game, and I have said many times, it is risky.

Does it not concern you that this all stems from Trump being so fixated on trade deficits? Vietnam and the EU both proposed zero tariffs and were rejected. This administration seems to be under the impression that a country like Vietnam is "cheating" the US out of fair trade because we have a trade deficit with them. That will never not be the case.

I said it before in this thread, but there absolutely needs to be some sort of tangible goal with all of this and it needs to be communicated to the American people. Right now there's no goal. The purpose of the tariffs changes with the wind. Trump says we need to "take our medicine" with this, but he's not telling us what the medicine is hoping to solve. He mentions he expects a manufacturing boom in two years. We all know that simply won't happen and it would take much longer than that.

I'd be much willing to hear all of this out if there was a clear, documented, and communicated plan and end goal. Right now there just isn't one.

 

[brianpoe]

You know the answer - obviously NO. Of course it won't

😂. I just loved the way the question was worded....

 

[LineSkiCat14]

I guess my question would be how do these tariffs solve those problems (not a question directed at you specifically)? I 100% agree that life was sustainable back in the day with one full time job. What what type of life were those people living? Houses were smaller, cars were worse and unsafe, food variety wasn't as widespread, etc. etc. Modern life just has so many more expenses and most of those are expenses that we choose. Life back in the day didn't have an internet bill, a cell phone bill, streaming services, DoorDash, Spotify, laptops and tablets, etc. etc. Not to mention average house sizes were about three times as small than they are now.

Of the expenses that are required, housing is probably the biggest issue right now. How exactly does slapping large tariffs on steel and lumber help to build more houses to help that problem?

Well, maybe the lavish lifestyle isn't meant to be for everyone. Tvs in every room, streaming services, two car garages, multiple bathrooms. I dont know what the answer is.. but it DOES seem that people today sort of expect this life to be the norm.. and idk. Maybe the life style you mentioned above is really only for the 1 to 2%. Sadly, not every can be rich and have the majority of what they want.

 

[brianpoe]

Does it not concern you that this all stems from Trump being so fixated on trade deficits? Vietnam and the EU both proposed zero tariffs and were rejected. This administration seems to be under the impression that a country like Vietnam is "cheating" the US out of fair trade because we have a trade deficit with them. That will never not be the case.

I said it before in this thread, but there absolutely needs to be some sort of tangible goal with all of this and it needs to be communicated to the American people. Right now there's no goal. The purpose of the tariffs changes with the wind. Trump says we need to "take our medicine" with this, but he's not telling us what the medicine is hoping to solve. He mentions he expects a manufacturing boom in two years. We all know that simply won't happen and it would take much longer than that.

I'd be much willing to hear all of this out if there was a clear, documented, and communicated plan and end goal. Right now there just isn't one.

I find it so silly that the Left still believes that everything Trump says is so black & white at the time of his statement. In the case of the tariffs he says a lot because, in my opinion, this is a multi-faceted strategy. His comments are more to reinforce support for his decisions and he is not always showing his hand.

To think that the admin has no goal is very naive. Seriously it is extremely naive, and simply the rampages of Lefties raging on X and Bluesky. Admins always have goals, whether they are good for the country or not is always debatable.

Nothing is changing with the wind. But since you are not aware of the goals you do not understand the fluidity.

The medicine is the market volatility and potentially higher prices to consumers. Some factories can definitely come on line within 2 years. But this is more of a long game and will take many yeas to come to full fruition if it succeeds.

Several have mentioned the end goals in this thread, I did a long post several days ago, much of which is coming to fruition in the last 24 hours. I will gladly provide you my opinion on the details of the end game again if you wish?

 

[WildcatfaninOhio]

By the way what's wrong with the service and entertainment industry? I know plenty of people who have worked their whole career running restaurants and hotels and bars who have raised families sent their kids to private schools Driven nice cars et cetera. It can be hard ass work, but tell me something where you get paid well that isn't hard work?

We’ll soon see what impact the tariffs have on the service sector. So far we know that we’ve pissed off Canada, and they used to love traveling to the US and spending money, eh? I read that Air Canada flights into Las Vegas are off 70% in just the last month. And many Canadians have canceled summer vacation plans to the US. We’ve also pissed off the EU and their members. It will be interesting to see how the next few months go, with deep drops in tourist dollars, hotel tax revenue, airline revenue, restaurants, taxis and Ubers.

 

[Ron Mehico]

Post your losses Brian because right now I think your face would be covered in orange spray tan if you were in the room with Trump.

I’ve got the sack to post my investment account

3/1/25: $511,620.43

3/31/25: $496,508.06

4/7/25: $447,307.62

You are a clown.

Now do 3/1/24, 3/1/23, and 3/1/22. Just out of curiosity. Also what point are you making exactly?

 

[AIChatGPT]

Good

Hard to believe you could amass that much with evil democrats controlling things for 12 of the last 16 years.

 

[Ron Mehico]

Good

Seriously though I’m sorry you’re down 2,000 dollars in the last year and only up 80,000 from two years ago. Hopefully you can recover in the next 15 years

 

[JDHoss]

We’ll soon see what impact the tariffs have on the service sector. So far we know that we’ve pissed off Canada, and they used to love traveling to the US and spending money, eh? I read that Air Canada flights into Las Vegas are off 70% in just the last month. And many Canadians have canceled summer vacation plans to the US. We’ve also pissed off the EU and their members. It will be interesting to see how the next few months go, with deep drops in tourist dollars, hotel tax revenue, airline revenue, restaurants, taxis and Ubers.

There are a ton of Canucks down here from November thru April. Some own condos, some rent, some stay in RV parks. You won't go anywhere without seeing plates from Quebec, Ontario and other provinces. They were already here this year before the tariffs hit, but I have no idea if they will return. One thing for sure, if they don't, they will be missed by the RV parks, condo and home rental owners, grocery stores, convenience/gas stations, and most of all, the restaurants and watering holes. Snowbirds from Canada are literally the difference between many of the watering holes and restaurants turning a decent profit or breaking even during the winter/spring.

 

[Irish Beck]

I find it so silly that the Left still believes that everything Trump says is so black & white at the time of his statement. In the case of the tariffs he says a lot because, in my opinion, this is a multi-faceted strategy. His comments are more to reinforce support for his decisions and he is not always showing his hand.

To think that the admin has no goal is very naive. Seriously it is extremely naive, and simply the rampages of Lefties raging on X and Bluesky. Admins always have goals, whether they are good for the country or not is always debatable.

Nothing is changing with the wind. But since you are not aware of the goals you do not understand the fluidity.

The medicine is the market volatility and potentially higher prices to consumers. Some factories can definitely come on line within 2 years. But this is more of a long game and will take many yeas to come to full fruition if it succeeds.

Several have mentioned the end goals in this thread, I did a long post several days ago, much of which is coming to fruition in the last 24 hours. I will gladly provide you my opinion on the details of the end game again if you wish?

See, this is what I don't understand. When Trump says something outrageous, we aren't supposed to believe him (even if it ends up A.) happening or B.) being true). If Trump says something about a policy, it's Art of the Deal now and he's playing 4D chess.

Trump and his administration's messaging on these tariffs have been flat out awful. When he presented his Liberation Day chart he flat out said "China charges us 67%, so we're gonna charge 34%". Seems reasonable, right? If you know nothing of international trade policies, then that seems like we're getting ripped off royally and finally fighting back, which is the narrative he's been using since last week. But that isn't at all what that chart indicated. The chart wasn't what countries charge us in tariffs, it's some convoluted methodology that uses a myriad of factors to determine what we "should" charge to completely negate any trade deficit (with a baseline of 10%). They released the equation and no sound economist would base their international trade policy on such a measure. He wants no trade deficits, period.

Catz has a point, Trump thinks trade deficits are bad, but he can't articulate why. He said today during the Netanyahu press briefing that it's like a P&L, which is hilariously stupid. You can argue 100 different reasons for why China is a bad faith trade partner, but the suggestion that they rip us off by our consumers buying more of their goods isn't the basis for sound international trade policy.

So when he says these foolish things (don't forget he stated during a stump speech that tariffs were a tax on the exporting country) we have to take him at his word. He's doing all of this unilaterally and invoking ancient laws to throw everything into turmoil with what I have to assess as a rudimentary understanding of how tariffs actually work. And, again, why didn't this work in 2018? Why is this time different?

Finally, it's important to remember that he spent a year telling us prices were too high because of failed policies and his day 1 goal was to get prices under control. This strategy is the exact opposite of that. There are ways to reinforce US production (tax cuts, smart energy investment, workforce training programs) while also working to reduce the cost to simply exist in this country, but this isn't that.

 

[Deeeefense]

I see fair number bottom fishers were picking up shares of mag-7 stocks through the rubble today. NVDA, META etc.
Does this signal we may be close to a bottom or are things still too dicey?

 

[Farmy75]

See, this is what I don't understand. When Trump says something outrageous, we aren't supposed to believe him (even if it ends up A.) happening or B.) being true). If Trump says something about a policy, it's Art of the Deal now and he's playing 4D chess.

Trump and his administration's messaging on these tariffs have been flat out awful. When he presented his Liberation Day chart he flat out said "China charges us 67%, so we're gonna charge 34%". Seems reasonable, right? If you know nothing of international trade policies, then that seems like we're getting ripped off royally and finally fighting back, which is the narrative he's been using since last week. But that isn't at all what that chart indicated. The chart wasn't what countries charge us in tariffs, it's some convoluted methodology that uses a myriad of factors to determine what we "should" charge to completely negate any trade deficit (with a baseline of 10%). They released the equation and no sound economist would base their international trade policy on such a measure. He wants no trade deficits, period.

Catz has a point, Trump thinks trade deficits are bad, but he can't articulate why. He said today during the Netanyahu press briefing that it's like a P&L, which is hilariously stupid. You can argue 100 different reasons for why China is a bad faith trade partner, but the suggestion that they rip us off by our consumers buying more of their goods isn't the basis for sound international trade policy.

So when he says these foolish things (don't forget he stated during a stump speech that tariffs were a tax on the exporting country) we have to take him at his word. He's doing all of this unilaterally and invoking ancient laws to throw everything into turmoil with what I have to assess as a rudimentary understanding of how tariffs actually work. And, again, why didn't this work in 2018? Why is this time different?

Finally, it's important to remember that he spent a year telling us prices were too high because of failed policies and his day 1 goal was to get prices under control. This strategy is the exact opposite of that. There are ways to reinforce US production (tax cuts, smart energy investment, workforce training programs) while also working to reduce the cost to simply exist in this country, but this isn't that.

This^
It’s a flawed calculation
It’s counter to what he campaigned on to get the swing voter (lower prices)
It’s insane to expect completely even trade flows, countries are rich and poor and provide different goods of differing values.
If the message was only about tarif rates it would be much more believable instead it’s nothing like that and you’ve got completely differing goals being announced from different admin officials.

 

[Tskware]

I see fair number bottom fishers were picking up shares of mag-7 stocks through the rubble today. NVDA, META etc.
Does this signal we may be close to a bottom or are things still too dicey?

Read today that a lot of big money managers are still playing wait and see

 

[PhDcat2018]

Do you guys really believe this? We're the richest country in the world. Real wages in the US are as high as they've ever been. As a country we have the most disposable income of any country in the world. We have standards of living that are top in the world. We basically run the world economy. But sure, I'm sure the poor people in Vietnam who work at the Nike factory, eat once a day, and walk around in shoes that apart would agree they've gotten the better side of the deal.

And all through massive debt and government spending. Our gdp is a sham. We have no choice but to make changes and bring investment here while negotiating better trade deals.

I think (and hope) this is the direction they take. Saying the tariffs are "permanent" was in itself a negotiating tactic IMO.

Absolutely. It doesn't work if you say "we are just doing this to get a bargain, we don't really mean permanent."

 

[Ron Mehico]

I see fair number bottom fishers were picking up shares of mag-7 stocks through the rubble today. NVDA, META etc.
Does this signal we may be close to a bottom or are things still too dicey?

Man if I knew that I’d be worth the make believe numbers I posted earlier 😂 I’ve been battling whether to pull the trigger on buying tonight. It’s down 15% the last 3 months, just not sure how much further, if at all, it’ll go.

 

[ukcatz12]

And all through massive debt and government spending. Our gdp is a sham. We have no choice but to make changes and bring investment here while negotiating better trade deals.

Absolutely. It doesn't work if you say "we are just doing this to get a bargain, we don't really mean permanent."

You're aware of how long that investment would take to become functional, right? There's no attracting investment while we negotiate better trade deals. The trade deals would be negotiated within weeks or months. The investment would take 5-10 years minimum to happen. And if better trade deals results in no or lower tariffs, than that investment will go away because it would be no reason for it.

You're talking out of both sides of your mouth here. You first comment implies you think the tariffs will re-shore manufacturing. Your second comment implies you think the tariffs are there for negotiation. You can't have it both ways. Either the tariffs are permanent and are intended to convince companies to re-shore manufacturing, or better trade deals result in lower or no tariffs charged by the US, and then there's no increase in manufacturing.

So which is it?

 

[AIChatGPT]

Weak.

 

[Blue-ish]

Too lazy to look this up but can someone confirm what I think I read recently that there are now more automobiles made in America than ever before in history due mainly to robotics and automation?

Per ChatGPT:

Over the past century, the U.S. automotive industry has experienced significant fluctuations in vehicle production due to various economic, technological, and global factors. While comprehensive year-by-year data for the entire 100-year span is limited, here is an overview highlighting key production figures and trends:

• 1929: Before the Great Depression, the U.S. produced over 90% of the world's automobiles, with approximately 32 million vehicles in operation. Wikipedia
• 1970s and Early 2000s: Production peaked at around 13–15 million units annually during these periods. Wikipedia
• 2009: Due to the financial crisis, production dropped to approximately 5.7 million vehicles. Wikipedia
• 2020: The COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in production, with about 8.8 million vehicles manufactured. Wikipedia
• 2023: The U.S. automotive industry produced approximately 10.6 million motor vehicles, including about 1.75 million passenger cars and 8.87 million commercial vehicles. Statista+1Statista+1

These figures reflect the industry's resilience and adaptability in response to economic downturns, global events, and shifts in consumer demand. For a detailed year-by-year breakdown, specialized industry reports or historical data archives would provide more comprehensive insights.

 

[Someguywhodoesntlikeyou]

Capitalism is dead.

Somehow Mercantilism has returned.

 

[PhDcat2018]

This tariff plan is being torched by literally every single credible economist in the world. It's not a liberal/conservative thing. Rand Paul doesn't agree with it, is he some left wing shill now?

And this does nothing to actually address any of what you're concerned about. It's quite clear the national debt talking point has been played all day long in the Trump media sphere. Bessent projects these to raise a maximum of $600 billion a year in revenue. That's not even half of the projected deficit for 2025. Offset that by the larger drop in the economy (GDP growth is already projected to be negative this quarter), lost tax revenue from when people lose their jobs, etc. and we're tanking the economy for something that will do nothing to fix the debt problem.

Why can't some of you understand our gdp "growth" was due to massive jumps in the government spending money we don’t actually have? I believe 2024 it was over 1/3rd of our gdp. That's fake production.

Long term our technological advantage over most countries will result in robotics performing a lot of the manual task that are currently involved in the low-tech manufacturing the goes on in 2nd and 3rd world countries. So technology will result in a lot return of manufacturing to the states.

Agreed. The turnaround could be quicker. We don’t have to build a million factories anymore. They can add to them and use the tech and service industries we have to maximize and expedite the gains.

 

[ukcatz12]

Why can't some of you understand our gdp "growth" was due to massive jumps in the government spending money we don’t actually have? I believe 2024 it was over 1/3rd of our gdp. That's fake production.

That's not fake production, that's just how the world works. The percentage of our GDP that comes from government money is basically the smallest percentage of the entire western world. The government using Microsoft services isn't fake production. The VA buying an MRI machine isn't fake production. The DoD buying planes from Boeing isn't fake production. The NOAA buying equipment to monitor hurricanes isn't fake production.

 

[Someguywhodoesntlikeyou]

Oh dear god.

 

[WildcatfaninOhio]

Trump has threatened an additional 50% tariff on China. Those Chinese-made red MAGA hats are gonna cost $100 soon. 😆

 

[PhDcat2018]

Post your losses Brian because right now I think your face would be covered in orange spray tan if you were in the room with Trump.

I’ve got the sack to post my investment account

3/1/25: $511,620.43

3/31/25: $496,508.06

4/7/25: $447,307.62

You are a clown.

Why are you so heavily invested in the markets when one of the richest men on the planet pulled over 100 billion out of the markets before the election even happened? That's kinda on you. The correction was coming.

 

[AIChatGPT]

Lol, you post numbers on a sports message board? Are you a child? Im guessing you consider these numbers to be huge?

I have never said what I support regarding the tariffs,

those are the numbers in my investment accounts. That’s all. Post yours.

You haven’t said if you support the tariffs or not…good grief. Every post you have made in this thread is pro-tariffs.

How about this? State clearly if you think the tarrifs rolled out last week were a good idea or not.

I’ll go on the record and say it was a complete display of idiocy and ineptitude. Terrible decision.

Good idea or not? Just go on the record or keep being a dodger.

 

[PhDcat2018]

You're aware of how long that investment would take to become functional, right? There's no attracting investment while we negotiate better trade deals. The trade deals would be negotiated within weeks or months. The investment would take 5-10 years minimum to happen. And if better trade deals results in no or lower tariffs, than that investment will go away because it would be no reason for it.

You're talking out of both sides of your mouth here. You first comment implies you think the tariffs will re-shore manufacturing. Your second comment implies you think the tariffs are there for negotiation. You can't have it both ways. Either the tariffs are permanent and are intended to convince companies to re-shore manufacturing, or better trade deals result in lower or no tariffs charged by the US, and then there's no increase in manufacturing.

So which is it?

There already is proposed development coming in, and nations are coming to make deals too. It isn't black and white. Some tariffs will be long term, and some won't. You also are discounting how much our technological advantage can be leveraged in boosting manufacturing. I replied to defense that we can use that to spin up manufacturing. I was watching cnbc briefly this morning or maybe it was Friday, and a plant in Indiana will be ready to upscale production before the end of the year. We aren't talking about 5 to 10 year building a million factories in every sector.

 

[Someguywhodoesntlikeyou]

Every 100 years or so an American politician tries the extreme protectionist tariff platform and every time it’s blown up this country. Every single time.

 

[Bill Derington]

Jesus Christ, we have a 37 trillion dollar debt, it’s grown exponentially since 2008, and especially since Covid, which China wink wink, “ accidentally released”.

What we’ve been doing is not working, the Fed is just pumping billions of dollars into the market. A controlled decent where the private sector can adapt is optimal over a sudden crash where panic takes over. The result would’ve make the govt response in 2008 look like child’s play.
We’d have full blown socialism, do you guys want to give up autonomy over a brief downturn in a 401k that you can’t even touch now?
The admin is keeping tariffs on other countries because China wil just pass their products through them as they did in trumps first term.

 

[PhDcat2018]

Jesus Christ, we have a 37 trillion dollar debt, it’s grown exponentially since 2008, and especially since Covid, which China wink wink, “ accidentally released”.

What we’ve been doing is not working, the Fed is just pumping billions of dollars into the market. A controlled decent where the private sector can adapt is optimal over a sudden crash where panic takes over. The result would’ve make the govt response in 2008 look like child’s play.
We’d have full blown socialism, do you guys want to give up autonomy over a brief downturn in a 401k that you can’t even touch now?
The admin is keeping tariffs on other countries because China wil just pass their products through them as they did in trumps first term.

Thank you