Wife has the same idea. She may have even bought some last night. Not sure although she was thinking about it.
Stock Market and tariffs
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Here's another interesting point about their "plan". Lutnick gave an interview before the April 2nd tariffs were released where he stated that the end goal was to bring back manufacturing.
When pushed about how that is possible when we are competing with countries with essential slave labor he stated the manufacturing would be automated and the jobs would be to work on automation.
Hopefully we have 8 to 10 years to revolutionize our entire workforce and build automated factories before everything collapses.
When pushed about how that is possible when we are competing with countries with essential slave labor he stated the manufacturing would be automated and the jobs would be to work on automation.
Hopefully we have 8 to 10 years to revolutionize our entire workforce and build automated factories before everything collapses.
The effectiveness of tariffs is absolutely a reasonable debate to have. The disagreements that we have here seem to be those of us understanding the reasoning for them, not even necessarily defending them, and the other side thinking that the tariffs are just a knee jerk reaction from Trump without a plan.
It is like debating whether a runner with the football should go down purposely before the end zone instead of a touchdown with one side arguing that running down the clock can be more beneficial than adding points to the score very late in the game and the other side's argument being that guy just wants attention.
Only one side is debating the policies, the other is arguing with emotion.
Apologies, hard to not get upset when taking a 40k haircut on my 401k to prevent fentanyl from coming in from Canada or to stymy illegal immigration from Mexico (which is way down before the additional tariffs). You can see why some would question the messaging though, right?
I suppose the argument would be more compelling if he didn't try this in 2018 and ultimately just put US farmers on welfare.
The difference in opinion about tariffs is the application. It's a scalpel and this administration thinks it's a hammer.
We have a very robust lumber sector, Canada floods the market with softwood lumber at bottom barrel prices because they have so much and dont use it, not much different than China flooding our markets with extremely cheap products.
While these low prices are a plus for consumers they wipe out industries like forestry jobs and sawmills. The same goes for drywall with Canada and Mexico dumping crazy amounts.
We need to have some kind of balance where the consumer doesn't have to overpay but we also need to keep people employed and produce our own products at home. It goes beyond the single manufacturer, there are so many ancillary industries tied to each manufacturing sector with many employees that are also hurt by importing cheap products.
As to the extremity in which Trump is rolling, he is working against a clock. He has 18 months to put his policies into effect AND have time to see results before the midterms.
Your apology is not necessary, you make an understandable and valid point.
As to the 401K, unless you are about to pull it out soon, it is very likely to come back after the turmoil caused by the uncertainty of the tariffs has calmed down.
I think that (automated work force) was inevitable before all of this argument over tariffs started. We have been going that route for quite a few years now.
Last sentence is a bit over dramatic though at this point. Not saying what is going on now is not a gamble, but the sky is falling response is over the top to me.
Also, construction of the automation is another highly paid sector that will require more workers moving forward. A good thing.
Wouldn't it have been a good idea to regulate that as part of USMCA instead of a tariff war? This is where I don't understand the argument. If we had qualms about trade with Canada and Mexico why sign the deal? Is it a bad deal?
Do you think housing is going to get more or less affordable in the next 6 months? What about grocery prices? These are the issues Americans voted for.
Also, is there an example in history where tariffs of this scale had a net positive effect for the country enacting the tariffs? Just a positive effect (much less revolutionizing the entirety of its economy and producing massive wealth.
You stated in another thread that the tariffs will both bring in massive amounts of taxes while also increasing manufacturing but nearly every economists I've read stated those are contradictory goals. Either the tairff stifled demand (thus lowering the tax income) and results in (hopefully) a short term down turn whole re industrializing or you blink because you can't pop up factories and a work ready labor force over night.
I'm not sure China, Canada and Mexico are going to blink this time.
I appreciate your level headed response as this isn't a common feature on this board. I'm well aware that a loss is only so if you cash out and am 20 years from retirement. I suppose my concern is more so about what I am deeming to be an unnecessary gamble that appears to be a pipe dream rather than a common economic correction.
??? Bringing jobs and manufacturing back to the US is the point of the tarrifs. Funny/sad how nobody on the left dare mention that these tarriffs are a response to tarriffs that have been placed on us forever. smh
The last sentence assumes we hold the tariffs and can't make deals with our trade partners. The last time Trump enacted tariffs, many of our trade partners began working with new trade partners as a result (primarily China).
It is a worst case scenario and is about as likely as these tariffs doing what Lutnick and Bessent seem to think they will do.
Ultimately, I think we cave a bit on our end, reach a new agreement of some sort with Canada and Mexico and China just continues to linger. The banning of rare earth metal exports is going to bite us in the ass if we can't get a better source soon.
There’s another piece of this. Trump doesn’t like Jerome and wants rates lower. He’s backing Jerome into a corner and I’m sure he loves it.
It's rich that the mixed messages (or lack of coherent explanation) for the tariffs is defended as a "negotiating strategy". But what kind of negotiating position are we in to be re-negotiating trade agreements while our economy appears to be collapsing? Wouldn't it be better to do that from a position of strength?
There are legitimate uses for limited tariffs, e.g., critical industries, like ship building, microchips, I support those tariffs. Therea are also tariffs designed to improve other things, like tariffs on goods we believe are made by slave labor in some countries. Also we all should support that.
But this shotgun approach literally makes no sense, read the last 6 months of the WSJ, hardly a liberal alt media site, and you will not read anyone not directly in the Trump administration that thinks these are well thought out and a good idea.
Andy Barr once worked for me, I wrote him a letter right after the election. My daughter is a director at an American clothing company, has been profitable for 8 straight quarters, things are going well. She has been to Taiwan and mainland China several times to look at manufacturing sites. Her company has worked its ass off to move away from making clothes in China, mostly because of Trump's policies in his first term. Now, only 8% of their clothes are made in China (which one would think, is a positive move from the Trump standpoint)
Yet, now all of a sudden, Indonesia, Vietnam (46%!!!), Cambodia and others where they now get their clothes made, have been hit with tariffs. This morning, her company is having an emergency executive meeting to figure out how to deal with this. I am hoping she will call me at lunch to fill me in.
Yet, why are we putting tariffs on clothes designed here (by my daughter and her team) but made overseas? As I told Barr, there is literally no American textile industry to protect. In fact, daughter tells me that most of the raw materials are produced overseas as well, we don't have the capability to produce all the material needed. (As an aside, Vietnam has had a very rocky relationship with China, similar to South Korea and Japan, and it serves geopolitical purposes to drive a wedge between China and its neighbors economically).
Ask yourself, are your kids willing to go back into factories to make shoes and T shirts? What about your grandkids? Is making shoes for Nike here in America now a national emergency? Read this morning that there is constantly a shortage of manufacturing workers. I used to represent a machine shop owner, he had plenty of business, paid his guys $80-90K a year, and still could not hire enough employees, more often than not. Americans are never going back to the 1970s when Cowden made jeans on Russell Cave Road - it is a fantasy to believe otherwise.
By the way, I agree with the poster above who says don't bet the farm that China, et al, will blink this time.
Finally, wrote my letter to my congressman Barr in early December . . . crickets since then.
But this shotgun approach literally makes no sense, read the last 6 months of the WSJ, hardly a liberal alt media site, and you will not read anyone not directly in the Trump administration that thinks these are well thought out and a good idea.
Andy Barr once worked for me, I wrote him a letter right after the election. My daughter is a director at an American clothing company, has been profitable for 8 straight quarters, things are going well. She has been to Taiwan and mainland China several times to look at manufacturing sites. Her company has worked its ass off to move away from making clothes in China, mostly because of Trump's policies in his first term. Now, only 8% of their clothes are made in China (which one would think, is a positive move from the Trump standpoint)
Yet, now all of a sudden, Indonesia, Vietnam (46%!!!), Cambodia and others where they now get their clothes made, have been hit with tariffs. This morning, her company is having an emergency executive meeting to figure out how to deal with this. I am hoping she will call me at lunch to fill me in.
Yet, why are we putting tariffs on clothes designed here (by my daughter and her team) but made overseas? As I told Barr, there is literally no American textile industry to protect. In fact, daughter tells me that most of the raw materials are produced overseas as well, we don't have the capability to produce all the material needed. (As an aside, Vietnam has had a very rocky relationship with China, similar to South Korea and Japan, and it serves geopolitical purposes to drive a wedge between China and its neighbors economically).
Ask yourself, are your kids willing to go back into factories to make shoes and T shirts? What about your grandkids? Is making shoes for Nike here in America now a national emergency? Read this morning that there is constantly a shortage of manufacturing workers. I used to represent a machine shop owner, he had plenty of business, paid his guys $80-90K a year, and still could not hire enough employees, more often than not. Americans are never going back to the 1970s when Cowden made jeans on Russell Cave Road - it is a fantasy to believe otherwise.
By the way, I agree with the poster above who says don't bet the farm that China, et al, will blink this time.
Finally, wrote my letter to my congressman Barr in early December . . . crickets since then.
Agree totally with the last paragraph and have thought that at the beginning. Don't need a trade war right now but bringing the level of the playing field closer to being fair is sensible and necessary to me.
China was/is going to keep getting a lot of business/trade partners regardless because of their ability to make things cheap because of the cheap labor force. Not sure what much else can be done there except leveling the tariffs/taxes playing field.
“Tax cuts that have severely added to the debt” is not reality. The economy was humming pre-Covid. Then politicians, Trump included, decided to light trillions of dollars on fire. Meanwhile, major provisions of the tax cuts have been expiring. Bonus depreciation is down to 40% and interest expense is limited to essentially 30% of EBIT, not EBITDA like it was in the early years. R&D has been disincentivized too. Coupled with skyrocketing borrowing costs for companies, and investing in growth has become way more expensive. In the meantime, the private economy has been in a recession for 2+ years while government spending propped up job and GDP numbers.
The government printing money causes inflation. Sure if there are no substitute goods for those that are tariffed, prices will go up, but that’s a different problem, and much more easily solvable, that inflation caused by the printing presses.
And we aren’t just looking at tariffs in a vacuum. It needs to be coupled with income tax cuts and deep government spending cuts. The debt ceiling bullshit is due to sins of the past. With DOGE I’m optimistic. Congress just needs to play ball.
We’ve got 10 trillion of debt that needs to be refinanced in the next year thanks to Yellen’s treasonous borrowing policies. That’s the number 1 issue facing the country. Rates need to drop, which gives the US some breathing room and drops mortgage rates in turn.
This has always been the plan, since before the election. This is what (a lot of) people voted for.
Were you suprised Barr didn’t respond. He’s a huge MAGAThere are legitimate uses for limited tariffs, e.g., critical industries, like ship building, microchips, I support those tariffs. Therea are also tariffs designed to improve other things, like tariffs on goods we believe are made by slave labor in some countries. Also we all should support that.
But this shotgun approach literally makes no sense, read the last 6 months of the WSJ, hardly a liberal alt media site, and you will not read anyone not directly in the Trump administration that thinks these are well thought out and a good idea.
Andy Barr once worked for me, I wrote him a letter right after the election. My daughter is a director at an American clothing company, has been profitable for 8 straight quarters, things are going well. She has been to Taiwan and mainland China several times to look at manufacturing sites. Her company has worked its ass off to move away from making clothes in China, mostly because of Trump's policies in his first term. Now, only 8% of their clothes are made in China (which one would think, is a positive move from the Trump standpoint)
Yet, now all of a sudden, Indonesia, Vietnam (46%!!!), Cambodia and others where they now get their clothes made, have been hit with tariffs. This morning, her company is having an emergency executive meeting to figure out how to deal with this. I am hoping she will call me at lunch to fill me in.
Yet, why are we putting tariffs on clothes designed here (by my daughter and her team) but made overseas? As I told Barr, there is literally no American textile industry to protect. In fact, daughter tells me that most of the raw materials are produced overseas as well, we don't have the capability to produce all the material needed. (As an aside, Vietnam has had a very rocky relationship with China, similar to South Korea and Japan, and it serves geopolitical purposes to drive a wedge between China and its neighbors economically).
Ask yourself, are your kids willing to go back into factories to make shoes and T shirts? What about your grandkids? Is making shoes for Nike here in America now a national emergency? Read this morning that there is constantly a shortage of manufacturing workers. I used to represent a machine shop owner, he had plenty of business, paid his guys $80-90K a year, and still could not hire enough employees, more often than not. Americans are never going back to the 1970s when Cowden made jeans on Russell Cave Road - it is a fantasy to believe otherwise.
By the way, I agree with the poster above who says don't bet the farm that China, et al, will blink this time.
Finally, wrote my letter to my congressman Barr in early December . . . crickets since then.
I think the USMCA was a mistake, Trump knows this but Im not sure his ego will allow him to say it publicly. His actions surely do speak louder than words today.
Housing costs have been rising long before Trumps new tariffs. Supply and demand is by far the largest driver of costs. Building hasnt kept up with demand since the 2008 housing crash, the low interest rates during the 2010's fueled bidding wars raising prices, the cost of labor has risen sharply, and investor cash (Blackrock and others) are buying up subdivisions.
There are several examples of tariffs having a positive effect for specific countries.
"You stated in another thread that the tariffs will both bring in massive amounts of taxes while also increasing manufacturing but nearly every economists I've read stated those are contradictory goals."
My actual statement was in response to a question as to which is true. And I stated both, but I also was clear that there was a caveat. At the start tariffs will bring in high dollars, but as production at home increases and we buy US made products we will purchase less foreign goods reducing tariff revenue.
Canada and Mexico are already blinking. If Europe wants to prevent China flooding their markets then Beijing will back off as well, IMHO.
This what most of this board voted for. So breathe it all in and enjoy.
Something had to be done to the economy to put a little sanity back. I’m a big fan of the cuts but I fear rogue judges and lazy Congressmen will slow that down. But I’m not a fan of this broad brush tarriff war at all. It’s going to cost Americans and Trump. The more he talks about how “beautiful” it is the less people believe. But he’s going to live or die on that hill. I guess we’ll all see.
I have no idea what the wood costs in an 8' 2 x 4 vs. all the other costs - forest management, cutting the trees up, shipment, profits along the way. Does US even have the forests & mills capacity to produce all the lumber we use?
KY hosts the largest drywall plant in the US.
I have stated many times that there is a risk to this strategy. I do believe that there is one major truth that many are ignoring and the the Left refuses to acknowledge...
Trump could have came into office his last term and done nothing to fix the country's issues. Which is what every President does, or at the least, refuse to do enough make real change at the risk of damaging their popularity.
We have all complained about the size of government, and the last 4 years saw the highest increase. Trump is cutting the size of the government and thus lowering costs.
We have all complained about the amount of waste in the government, Trump is making every attempt to eliminate waste.
We have all complained about the amount of debt the government has which grew from 27T to 36T the last 4 years, and the interest on that debt is significant.
We have lost 90,000 factories and 7 million manufacturing jobs, we have legitimate national security concerns due to the lack of internal production capabilities. Trump is obviously attempting to address this.
People may disagree with his strategies, and I can argue the negative side of this issue way better than our resident liberals who simply hate Trump without any true understanding, but the lack of appreciation for Trump's courage in attempting to make real change to better the future of the country is disappointing.
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The steel & aluminum tariffs didn't create many jobs here vs. the added costs to goods they caused. Maybe tariffs elsewhere will. You can sure bet the new factories added will be way more manpower efficient than the ones lost due to low tariffs to keep prices down as much as possible. But we need to make more products here for national security. Drugs are one. So is refining critical metals (China does 80-90% of that worldwide refining.). Libs will make the latter as difficult as possible thru pollution scares & thus permitting.
There are legitimate uses for limited tariffs, e.g., critical industries, like ship building, microchips, I support those tariffs. Therea are also tariffs designed to improve other things, like tariffs on goods we believe are made by slave labor in some countries. Also we all should support that.
But this shotgun approach literally makes no sense, read the last 6 months of the WSJ, hardly a liberal alt media site, and you will not read anyone not directly in the Trump administration that thinks these are well thought out and a good idea.
Andy Barr once worked for me, I wrote him a letter right after the election. My daughter is a director at an American clothing company, has been profitable for 8 straight quarters, things are going well. She has been to Taiwan and mainland China several times to look at manufacturing sites. Her company has worked its ass off to move away from making clothes in China, mostly because of Trump's policies in his first term. Now, only 8% of their clothes are made in China (which one would think, is a positive move from the Trump standpoint)
Yet, now all of a sudden, Indonesia, Vietnam (46%!!!), Cambodia and others where they now get their clothes made, have been hit with tariffs. This morning, her company is having an emergency executive meeting to figure out how to deal with this. I am hoping she will call me at lunch to fill me in.
Yet, why are we putting tariffs on clothes designed here (by my daughter and her team) but made overseas? As I told Barr, there is literally no American textile industry to protect. In fact, daughter tells me that most of the raw materials are produced overseas as well, we don't have the capability to produce all the material needed. (As an aside, Vietnam has had a very rocky relationship with China, similar to South Korea and Japan, and it serves geopolitical purposes to drive a wedge between China and its neighbors economically).
Ask yourself, are your kids willing to go back into factories to make shoes and T shirts? What about your grandkids? Is making shoes for Nike here in America now a national emergency? Read this morning that there is constantly a shortage of manufacturing workers. I used to represent a machine shop owner, he had plenty of business, paid his guys $80-90K a year, and still could not hire enough employees, more often than not. Americans are never going back to the 1970s when Cowden made jeans on Russell Cave Road - it is a fantasy to believe otherwise.
By the way, I agree with the poster above who says don't bet the farm that China, et al, will blink this time.
Finally, wrote my letter to my congressman Barr in early December . . . crickets since then.
It's been a long time Tskware. Everyone should know what a great person you are and I have a ton of respect for you. I do not disagree with your points. I have spent time explaining the reasoning and process for the tariffs but definitely have concerns myself.
I can say with confidence that China's position relies heavily on Europe's response. China being squeezed out of the US market creates a major surplus of goods that they will likely drop the prices of and try to flood into European countries.
This is another scenario where people say, "why is that a bad thing, cheaper prices are good for consumers", but this also devastates manufacturing sectors. This happened in the early 2000s when China flooded global markets with cheap steel, this cratering of prices caused a ripple effect that manufacturers and ancillary providers never recovered.
We see it today with tariffs on Chinese electric cars. Biden hit China with 100% tariffs and Trump is adding on. Because of this China flooded the European market with price reduced vehicles increasing their EV imports by 20%. The EU's auto sector employs millions of people and is a significant driver of their GDP. The inability to match China's at or below pricing crushes a network of businesses in the industry.
If the EU chooses to protect its manufacturing sectors and restrain China's attempts to dump products intended for the US then China will blink. IMHO
Drugs are another critical industry, also used to rep a small generic drug company, all their raw materials came from overseas, mostly from India. However, even Musk is against broad tariffs, and not just recently, he also said so on the Joe Rogan three hour podcast before the election (which I forced myself to listen to, and Trump's as well, so I at least could say I heard what was being said)
Portnoy doesn't seem to be enjoying the pain that was promised to him.
Yes it has, had not seen your name in many a day.
I will say this has been a refreshing change of pace from the political cesspool forum, which I refuse to participate in. I do enjoy the back and forth thoughtful discussion of an important topic, hopefully the usual D bags will not show up in force to ruin this thread. But I am not holding my breath.
What’s worse, a controlled burn or a wildfire?
The US economy was propped up by govt spending, the stock market numbers weren’t based on actual, real world items in the present or future.
It was going to pop if left alone, and the next step would’ve been socialism. It’s why Europe is enacting Chinese level social control.
It’s a controlled burn, it’s not a surprise, Trump is doing exactly what he stated he was going to do.
The US economy was propped up by govt spending, the stock market numbers weren’t based on actual, real world items in the present or future.
It was going to pop if left alone, and the next step would’ve been socialism. It’s why Europe is enacting Chinese level social control.
It’s a controlled burn, it’s not a surprise, Trump is doing exactly what he stated he was going to do.
I do not believe that we currently have the forests or mill capacity to provide 100% required to meet demand. Part of that is because a large percentage of trees are locked up in federally protected areas. I read awhile back that we could handle about 70%. But allowing Canada to severely undercut our current production capability would seriously impact that sector as Canada has what seems to be unlimited trees currently due to regulations stymying house building in Canada.
trump now floating the idea of a 90 day pause on tariffs, Europe now offering to go to zero tariffs. Markets react as predicted.
Where are people seeing Trump is floating a 90 day pause?
Edit: other than headlines that just say it. What are the reports based on?
Edit: other than headlines that just say it. What are the reports based on?
Just heard it reported on CNBC - they are now following up on it.
Now backpedaling a little bit.
Update: Whitehouse now saying not true. Sorry 😯
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Off-topic Brianpoe.Do you remember when we both landed on Claude Bassett's shit list? Frankly, I took that as a sign of our good character.
Of course I do, Claude and I had a heated conversation at the Lafayette Room one day, you may have been there? What a guy. I may hold the record for having the most "less than cordial" discussions with staff, media, Sandy Bell and Mitch Barnhart....
Going to be humorous when Trump is criticized for all the chaos he’s causing, simply because a bunch of fake news outlets decided to run a fake headline about him considering a 90 day pause.
The administration has been crystal clear about implementing the tariffs.
The administration has been crystal clear about implementing the tariffs.
It seems to me that the tariffs are a consumption tax and it is a way of addressing our debt. I don't see it driving much factory work back to the US. US factory wages are still too high compared to the rest of the world. I don't really see a market for high cost US goods that other countries can make cheaper.
I’m not optimistic but there ain’t shit I can do about it but wait and see. My 401Ks have taken baths, but I am a few decades out from retirement so there’s plenty of time for recovery.
I recently bought a house and had to upgrade several appliances. I bought those late last year. That’s looking like a smart move right now.
I recently bought a house and had to upgrade several appliances. I bought those late last year. That’s looking like a smart move right now.
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