Markets is Asia are hitting stop limits. Interesting to see Europe and here at the open tomorrow. Is this going to be a buying opportunity like March 2020 and COVID?
Stock Market and tariffs
- Thread starter BankerCat12
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I’m waiting to buy some S&P 500, just not sure when. Obviously nobody knows when to time the market but this week seems like a good idea. Want to see what happens tomorrow but if it’s another 5% drop will be difficult not to pull the trigger tomorrow
The market is obviously oversold bigtime, what I'm thinking is the first deal that is struck between the US and a major trading partner you will see an immediate spike, but I'm not sure what the long term looks like. We could be in a bear for quite a while.
Obviously hard to predict. There were multiple factors showing the stock market was overvalued the last 3 years, especially when looking at P/E ratios. As someone who runs a small business the massive run of 20% in 2024 made no sense to the reality I was seeing. And then the huge spike after Trump won was completely speculative. I think 5,000 for the s&p 500 makes sense honestly. If it dips down to 4,500 I think that’s where I want to buy, but I just don’t see any financial reason why it would climb back to over 6,000 this year (watch it be at like 6,500 in 3 weeks 😂 )
I hate the hit I’m taking as much as anybody but our economy is fundamentally flawed. Globalism has failed in large part, at least for us. Been great for the 3rd world though.
The problem is no one knows what the purpose of these tariffs are. Are they negotiation tacts or are the revenue generators whose purpose is to reshape the American economy? They can't be both.
Today administration officials said these tariffs can't be negotiated away. When asked if they were open to negotiation the Treasury Secretary said "No. No, no, no. I think that we are going to have to see the path forward." At the same time the administration is saying countries want to make deals and Trump is saying any deal a country makes must eliminate any trade deficit with the US. This obsession with the trade deficit is nonsensical.
There's no strategy here. There's no plan. There are no benchmarks the administration has for success. Trump said he expects a factory boom in two years. None of this happens in two years, it will take a decade or more for large corporations to onshore manufacturing back to the US. And in the mean time this sends their material costs to do so through the roof. Companies will make big announcements of their intention to invest in the US, drag their feet, and just wait out the next four years before quietly reversing course. Remember Trump and Foxconn's amazing deal for Wisconsin? How'd that turn out? There will be a few examples here and there of actual investment, and it will make headlines because Trump is every the showman, but it won't come close to offsetting the economic harm this causes.
I truly don't think people appreciate the damage this is doing to the US's reputation around the world. We are no longer a safe, predictable avenue for investment. You simply cannot seriously levy large tariffs like this overnight. It breaks supply chains. And then to flip flop on it multiple times in the span of a few weeks makes you look like an idiot. The tariffs could be reversed tomorrow, but this will hurt us for years to come. Canada has all but turned their backs on American products. The EU is next. Tourism to the US will and already is taking a hit. GDP growth is predicted to be negative this quarter and none of the bad stuff has actually hit the real economy yet.
Three Words: Dollar Cost Average.
Thank me later.
Thank me later.
I’M GONNA HAMMER THE OVER/UNDER says every idiot on sports gambling sites. Based on Trump’s first administration, I wonder if these tariffs will stay in place very long. However, there are differences between these and those. 1st term…targeted industries…more broad this time. All negotiation tactics….let’s hope it works.
The Treasury Secretary said today on CBS they are not negotiation tactics and they are "absolutely happening" with "no delay".
Do you guys really believe this? We're the richest country in the world. Real wages in the US are as high as they've ever been. As a country we have the most disposable income of any country in the world. We have standards of living that are top in the world. We basically run the world economy. But sure, I'm sure the poor people in Vietnam who work at the Nike factory, eat once a day, and walk around in shoes that apart would agree they've gotten the better side of the deal.
I agree a lot of the run up was based on projected growth especially with the Mag-7 stocks and the experts telling us the AI revolution is coming and will change the world. There is some truth to that but I think the investors, including me, got a bit too far over their skis.
Tariffs will end once Trump's approval rating falls and people begin to notice losses in their 401k's. Your everyday people aren't out there selling off stocks/waiting to buy. They care about retirement and money in their pocket and there needs to be a clear answer as to why just 2.5 months into this new administration we have to feel "some pain" and go through constant tariff wars with nations around the world. Spinning this as a positive only goes so far but I expect a plan is in place and this isn't just a dick measuring contest on the world stage.
cost averaging is great but some of us a running out of dollars 😯
I disagree with this “no plan” narrative. Major negotiations are occurring, it would be stupid to tip their intentions to the media.
The doom and gloom predictions are also very premature.
I think (and hope) this is the direction they take. Saying the tariffs are "permanent" was in itself a negotiating tactic IMO.
Globalism has resulted in a loss of 90,000 factories, 7M jobs, and the loss of vital production capabilities.
We are 37T in debt and people are more concerned about other countries than our own children and grandchildren.
So bring back the vital production capabilities that are legitimately national security issues. But this doesn't do that. Slapping tariffs on things we literally cannot produce in the US is just stupid.
To fix things like what you mentioned you need a targeted approach, but this administration thinks the only tool in the toolbox is a hammer. Use a targeted approach that incentivizes bringing certain key industries back to the US. For areas of the country that are hurting due to loss of manufacturing jobs, use targeted programs to revitalize those areas. But American manufacturing isn't coming back to where it was by slapping a 10% tariff on bananas.
You do not think that there is a plan which is why you think everything is stupid. I really do not understand how anyone could state that an incoming admin doesn't have a plan..? That said, a very intricate plan is in place with many moving pieces, and it is risky.
The tariffs are doing many things; forcing cash into the treasury which should trigger a lowering of interests rates to refi the 9T that must be dealt with this year (6 by the summer), it has encouraged trillions of dollars of new manufacturing in only 2 months, they are excellent leverage tools, and could force China into addressing their currency manipulation.
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No it hasn't. There have been some vague announcements of future investment, just like there was during the first Trump administration. An announcement isn't tangible investment. Remember the Foxconn deal for Wisconsin that Trump bragged about for ages? How'd that actually end up?
To tell the American public you need to prepare for years of economic hardship for some abstract future gain just isn't going to work. The plan needs to be clearly communicated to voters, because if it isn't, and shit really hits the fan, 2026 isn't going to be pretty and maybe Congress remembers they actually control the tariff power.
Why do I think there is no intricate plan? Because this administration can't even get their basic facts straight. The "tariffs charged to the US" during the announcement isn't a tariff charged to the US, it was just a trade imbalance. Trump's obsession with trade deficits is irrational and an advanced economy like the US should have trade deficits with less developed economies. The fact that Trump spent the weekend golfing and bragging about winning his own golf tournament tells me there is no plan. Not to mention tariffing an island inhabited solely by penguins. Everything about this so far has shown they're just firing from the hip and winging it.
Economists from all over the political spectrum are denouncing this. This isn't just some liberal overreaction to Trump. The entire economic world is telling Trump he will send the world into a recession that makes 2008 look not half bad. It will go down as one of the stupidest things any President has ever done when it's all said and done.
It’s truly hard to imagine that some people think we are better off than we were in 1992.
The 37 trillion in debt ALONE is all one needs to understand what has happened.
What is unclear to me is … if new manufacturing plants are to be built here, who is going to fill the job openings ??
Do we have a workforce in waiting ?? Is it mobile and willing to relocate ??
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I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but new manufacturing expansion usually begins with an announcement. You can think that Apple and others are lying. I think that is ridiculous at this point in time.
The admin is negotiating, they are not going to share things publicly at this point but it is not hard to see their strategy. You are operating by obvious left wing talking points. You probably believe that Trump and Musk are doing all of this just to enrichment themselves and steal information from broke Americans as the Dem politicians claim... the same ones that make tens of millions of dollars off a $179,000 salary....
It is naive to think they have no plan. You simply do not understand it because you seem to be so radicalized against Trump that you refuse to want to see it. This comment proves my opinion of your stance. "The fact that Trump spent the weekend golfing and bragging about winning his own golf tournament tells me there is no plan." Seriously? You lose credibility with comments like this.
I said that this was a very risky plan. Not everyone is going to love it. We will see how it goes.
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I'm not sure if you are questioning my entire comment or a specific quote? However, I read, a lot. I am also tasked, at times, relaying information from DC to certain stakeholders. That said, I am not unveiling any major secrets. Everything that I have said can be found online.
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They’re real…still a negotiation tactic. I don’t love it, but my belief is that the tariffs will be lifted once the playing field is leveled. I’m a supply chain executive…short term pain, perhaps long term gain. Whatever we’ve been doing has not worked. US carrying too much of the load.
@brianpoe I've been to the politard thread and any source that states what you disagree with is automatically ridiculed, ain't falling for that sheet. When it comes to the internet, the truth is somewhere between what I read and what you read, I acknowledge that, and you take it as fact. You may breath now.
I’ve watched hours of administration officials on podcasts and saw enough explanation throughout the campaign to understand tariffs were coming and this has been the plan all along.
Equities were artificially inflated. We’ve been in an actual private economy recession for 2 years.
Meanwhile, some people keep saying “there is no plan”.
I’d bet it’s the exact same posters who were claiming the economy was great in 2023-2024 because of reported jobs numbers and GDP, and those who now say “there is no plan”.
At some point you need to broaden the scope of media you consume.
You can disagree with the plan, or think it ultimately may be unsuccessful, but Bessent knows a little bit about macro economics and risky trades.
Equities were artificially inflated. We’ve been in an actual private economy recession for 2 years.
Meanwhile, some people keep saying “there is no plan”.
I’d bet it’s the exact same posters who were claiming the economy was great in 2023-2024 because of reported jobs numbers and GDP, and those who now say “there is no plan”.
At some point you need to broaden the scope of media you consume.
You can disagree with the plan, or think it ultimately may be unsuccessful, but Bessent knows a little bit about macro economics and risky trades.
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"Where there's chaos, there's money".
- Various wise men.
- Various wise men.
I know someone who's lost $8,000 in their 401k since Trump took office. I've lost a nice little chunk as well. We're not even three months into this. You can church it up however you like but shit like that hits people and they feel it. That, and Trump's numbers lowering will end his global trade war.
No one will want to man their online battle stations to defend this if this continues so I hope it works out.
No one will want to man their online battle stations to defend this if this continues so I hope it works out.
That is a cop out. You are obviously a liberal that follows Democrat talking points. Just like all the idiot protestors blocking Tesla dealerships, you cannot state any logical or truthful reasoning.
I can’t imagine how embarrassing it must be to be a Democrat today. There is a reason why the party has a 26% approval rating.
All I know is business as usual got us into $36 Trillion in debt, decimated the middle class, destroyed towns all across America, crumbled our infrastructure, caused a massive national security threat because we do not produce vital things in this country (Covid was a huge wake up call) and the list goes on and on. It’s beyond appalling this is where we are at being the “wealthiest” country in the world.
I think all of the “experts” who have been wrong about everything sit this one out.
I think all of the “experts” who have been wrong about everything sit this one out.
It’s like all these people just found an economics textbook and opened it to the page on free trade, skipping over the parts about dropping money from a helicopter and inflation.
It’d be a lot easier to believe some of these people are economic purests had they not supported the trillions and trillions of government money printing that drove people into equities to hedge against that inflation.
It’d be a lot easier to believe some of these people are economic purests had they not supported the trillions and trillions of government money printing that drove people into equities to hedge against that inflation.
That's an interesting take considering the guy in charge is demanding a removal of the debt ceiling and continuation of tax cuts that have severely added to the debt.
I watch a lot of alternative conservative media. If this is some master stroke plan by Bessent and Lutnick, the Ben Shapiros of the world didn't get the message.
Actual conservative economists (AEI, Thomas Sowell, etc) are also raising alrams about this because we try this every 100 years or so and the results are disastrous.
Trump was elected to lower inflation and make housing affordable. Slapping a lumber tariff and drywall components tariff on two of your biggest allies and trading partners (who this man just signed a new free trade deal with) is evidence that he just believes tariffs are the best way forward and he's wrong.
I do think there is the possibility that you could potentially reshape the way that global trade does business as tariffs (in a far less extreme form) can do just that, but this seems like an unecessary gamble.
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