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Josh Allen and Jamin Davis hit the genetic lottery that no recruiting site or college staff can predict.


I noticed Jamin Davis the first time on kickoff coverage against Penn State. They did not return the kick, but this big kid wearing 44 outruns the rest of the coverage easily, and I looked his name up in my Citrus Bowl program.

Then, the next season at a QB Club meeting, a Coach asked us to focus on a player in three successive films, but then put his lazer pointer on a different player, No. 44, who was making plays outside of his area, by outrunning Uk players to get there.

The assistant was Jon Sumrall. And IIRC, he was credited for recruiting Jamin Davis.
 
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I doubt Rivals discloses subscriber numbers for individual websites since that proprietary information would be useful for their competitors. I haven't seen it. But IDK.

Would you be satisfied if Hedrick and Strey are the two OT prospects Stoops signs in our 2025 class? I have a gut feeling we could be headed in that direction but could easily be wrong.
So many times UK has recruited guys listed as OT and either the guys were OGs, Selm or they were projects like Wood. I just want to see them actually land a couple guys that can eventually play LT in the SEC. I know you mentioned Hedrick looks like a RT. I’m not sure where Strey projects. Rowland had a post and he seemed to think UK can finish with these two. He also said Atkins though a couple years away had the most upside of the 3 due to size and athleticism. Like your Mock he thought this would be there OT class.

I don’t think they could get 3 better OTs at this point. These are the type of guys UK had to close on. There other options include Auguste but that may be a step down. I thought they had one more tackle coming in but they may be it. It could definitely be better but the way OT recruiting is going it would be good to finish with those 3
 
So many times UK has recruited guys listed as OT and either the guys were OGs, Selm or they were projects like Wood. I just want to see them actually land a couple guys that can eventually play LT in the SEC. I know you mentioned Hedrick looks like a RT. I’m not sure where Strey projects. Rowland had a post and he seemed to think UK can finish with these two. He also said Atkins though a couple years away had the most upside of the 3 due to size and athleticism. Like your Mock he thought this would be there OT class.

I don’t think they could get 3 better OTs at this point. These are the type of guys UK had to close on. There other options include Auguste but that may be a step down. I thought they had one more tackle coming in but they may be it. It could definitely be better but the way OT recruiting is going it would be good to finish with those 3
Thought Rowland poo-pooed the Hedrick to UK narrative. I understood Rowland to say UK would take "3 OTs: Strey, Auguste, Atkins." Frankly, and this is just me, I'd be disappointed if they miss on Hedrick.
 
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Thought Rowland poo-pooed the Hedrick to UK narrative. I understood Rowland to say UK would take "3 OTs: Strey, Auguste, Atkins." Frankly, and this is just me, I'd be disappointed if they miss on Hedrick.
FWIW, Hedrick is down to UK and Ole MS. He already OVed Oxford and is in Lexington this weekend. He likes Coach Wolf. Reportedly, he will announce next week. This isn't over, but UK got his last OV and, more often than not, that is an advantage.
 
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Thought Rowland poo-pooed the Hedrick to UK narrative. I understood Rowland to say UK would take "3 OTs: Strey, Auguste, Atkins." Frankly, and this is just me, I'd be disappointed if they miss on Hedrick.
Idk about that. Hedrick was an option but had several visits scheduled. It surprised most when he cancelled everything. Rowland is now expecting them to get Hedrick
 
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FWIW, Hedrick is down to UK and Ole MS. He already OVed Oxford and is in Lexington this weekend. He likes Coach Wolf. Reportedly, he will announce next week. This isn't over, but UK got his last OV and, more often than not, that is an advantage.
And Rowland, in his late "War Room!" report last night that was public, stated Hedrick would chose between UK and Texas A&M. Confusing for sure. It was in that report Rowland stated UK would take Strey, Atkins and Auguste. Don't know the intent but it definitely muddied the water.

EDIT: Unless I've overlooked it, Rowland must've taken down that War Room! post I referred to, looked but couldn't find it.
 
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And Rowland, in his late "War Room!" report last night that was public, stated Hedrick would chose between UK and Texas A&M. Confusing for sure. It was in that report Rowland stated UK would take Strey, Atkins and Auguste. Don't know the intent but it definitely muddied the water.

EDIT: Unless I've overlooked it, Rowland must've taken down that War Room! post I referred to, looked but couldn't find it.
I respect Rowland for sure, but here are the facts. Hedrick is saying he will announce his decision next week. He OVed UK this weekend. UK got his final OV. He has not OVed TX A&M. All available public evidence is saying it's UK or Ole Miss, with UK apparently having an advantage as of this moment. Of course, recruiting is among the least predictable of human behaviors.
 
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I respect Rowland for sure, but here are the facts. Hedrick is saying he will announce his decision next week. He OVed UK this weekend. UK got his final OV. He has not OVed TX A&M. All available public evidence is saying it's UK or Ole Miss, with UK apparently having an advantage as of this moment. Of course, recruiting is among the least predictable of human behaviors.
I'm aware of this and that's the way I was gauging the situation until last night. I don't know if Rowland confused anybody else but he most assuredly confused me.
 
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And Rowland, in his late "War Room!" report last night that was public, stated Hedrick would chose between UK and Texas A&M. Confusing for sure. It was in that report Rowland stated UK would take Strey, Atkins and Auguste. Don't know the intent but it definitely muddied the water.

EDIT: Unless I've overlooked it, Rowland must've taken down that War Room! post I referred to, looked but couldn't find it.
He posted Friday a note on Hedrick and it mentioned him, Strey, and Atkins. The last War Room I seen him post is almost a week old
 
I'm aware of this and that's the way I was gauging the situation until last night. I don't know if Rowland confused anybody else but he most assuredly confused me.
I went back and found what you are talking about and it was from May 26th. At the time he was hearing that UK and aTm were in the best place for Hedrick. He also said that UK was in the best place with Auguste heading into his visits. He ended saying as of then he though UK had the best shot at Auguste, Atkinson, and Strey but added that could change a lot which it did
 
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I went back and found what you are talking about and it was from May 26th. At the time he was hearing that UK and aTm were in the best place for Hedrick. He also said that UK was in the best place with Auguste heading into his visits. He ended saying as of then he though UK had the best shot at Auguste, Atkinson, and Strey but added that could change a lot which it did
We get Strey and Kattus. Great start. Then Hedrick (probably) and either Atkins or Auguste. Or, if things don't work out for Andrew Stargel at OH St for some reason, he could still possibly end up here. Stargel and Auguste are OGs. Hedrick and Atkins are OTs. Of the remaining uncommitted OL prospects visiting here this month, I like Hedrick best although Atkins with 30-40# of new good weight could be a real rapid riser.
 
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I went back and found what you are talking about and it was from May 26th. At the time he was hearing that UK and aTm were in the best place for Hedrick. He also said that UK was in the best place with Auguste heading into his visits. He ended saying as of then he though UK had the best shot at Auguste, Atkinson, and Strey but added that could change a lot which it did
Much thanks for clearing up my confusion!
 
I have no idea why he dropped. I don’t think it is because he committed to UK. Many times players will be ranked way different by the various analysts. Stone was 26th rivals, 29th 247, and 49th ON3. Rivals not only dropped him to a 3 star but a 5.6 and out of the top 50. That says there is more than just because it is UK thing

This is Rivals standard answer, "he didn't drop, he was passed by other players" If one the national guys were to respond that is their response 9 times out of 10.
 
We get Strey and Kattus. Great start. Then Hedrick (probably) and either Atkins or Auguste. Or, if things don't work out for Andrew Stargel at OH St for some reason, he could still possibly end up here. Stargel and Auguste are OGs. Hedrick and Atkins are OTs. Of the remaining uncommitted OL prospects visiting here this month, I like Hedrick best although Atkins with 30-40# of new good weight could be a real rapid riser.
Stargel is down to OSU and UK. He is from GA but had zero Deep South offers which makes zero since to me, unless he transferred there. It was great getting strey. The last couple years we had similar guys commit before getting to their UK visits. Glad we got him early and hopefully will add Hedrick later in the week.
 
I hope.

Oddly Hedrick is listed as an Ole Miss Commit, on Rivals right now.


Yeah, it says he committed, today, June 9, 2024 to Ole Miss?!?!
Not odd. He visited there then dropped everyone except UK which he moved up his visit to. We knew he was deciding between the two. Looks like OM locked him down last week and he gave UK one final shot that they missed. On to the next one
 
This is Rivals standard answer, "he didn't drop, he was passed by other players" If one the national guys were to respond that is their response 9 times out of 10.
I actually got some interesting responses a few years back* on a noticed tendency for UK guys to get dropped unexpectedly. What the answers revealed is that the rankings are basically note-comparing and hyper-focused on the top guys. What I gleaned from Woody's responses is that kids going to places like UK get dropped not for malicious reasons, but once they commit to UK (if they're not at a high profile HS) they just aren't get the Rivals guys' eyes on them and they may move up or down as needed to make everything else work. Unfortunately they won't just admit that.



*My questions were specifically about Denzil Ware. He dropped from a higher ranked 4 star to a 5.6 3* out of nowhere. The answers I got were (paraphrased), "He had a weird recruitment, we're worried about his mental focus." "He isn't putting on good weight." "He didn't stand out at camps." "His HS production isn't what you would expect from a 4 star guy."

So I went and looked up the articles ON HIS OWN RIVALS PROFILE about his most recent camps outings and every single one mentioned how well he performed. One even mentioned that he looked to have bulked up while still maintaining his athleticism. I then went to the local newspaper in Florida's website, and sure enough they had boxscores and writes up for every game of the season. He was averaging double digit tackles, multiple TFLs, and a forced turnover every game. To the head case insinuation, I asked about all of the kids who made teams buy their mom a house and then commit to another school, etc. and why that never affects their ranking.

I got no more responses after that.
 
I actually got some interesting responses a few years back* on a noticed tendency for UK guys to get dropped unexpectedly. What the answers revealed is that the rankings are basically note-comparing and hyper-focused on the top guys. What I gleaned from Woody's responses is that kids going to places like UK get dropped not for malicious reasons, but once they commit to UK (if they're not at a high profile HS) they just aren't get the Rivals guys' eyes on them and they may move up or down as needed to make everything else work. Unfortunately they won't just admit that.



*My questions were specifically about Denzil Ware. He dropped from a higher ranked 4 star to a 5.6 3* out of nowhere. The answers I got were (paraphrased), "He had a weird recruitment, we're worried about his mental focus." "He isn't putting on good weight." "He didn't stand out at camps." "His HS production isn't what you would expect from a 4 star guy."

So I went and looked up the articles ON HIS OWN RIVALS PROFILE about his most recent camps outings and every single one mentioned how well he performed. One even mentioned that he looked to have bulked up while still maintaining his athleticism. I then went to the local newspaper in Florida's website, and sure enough they had boxscores and writes up for every game of the season. He was averaging double digit tackles, multiple TFLs, and a forced turnover every game. To the head case insinuation, I asked about all of the kids who made teams buy their mom a house and then commit to another school, etc. and why that never affects their ranking.

I got no more responses after that.
Interesting information.
There is no doubt the analysts from all services have to at least be aware of, if not consider offer sheets along with other information. I can't believe they do their work in a vacuum. It's also true that to move guys up, by default you have to move other guys down.
 
Thought Experiment:

Imagine yourself to be an analyst for one of these on-line services.

Further imagine that on a given Wednesday in August, six modestly rated (5.5 Three Star) prospects commit to their schools of choice. Further imagine that these are the six respective schools receiving the Six commitments on that Wednesday:

(1) Vandy;
(2) Oregon State;
(3) Northwestern;
(4) Ohio State
(5) Bama;
(6) Virginia.

Honestly, if you were working for a living analyzing High School talent and took your job seriously, which of the six players would you look at with more interest knowing their college choice?

Now, combine that thought with this: you objectively know that Bama and Ohio State EACH have more paying subscribers than the other four University fan bases combined.

And your income is dependent, ultimately, upon subscriptions.

I do not believe there is an anti-Kentucky bias, specifically . . . rather - - - there is a bias against the entirety of FBS teams, with about 15 exceptions, and almost all of these exceptions now reside in either the Big Ten or the SEC, Notre Dame being the most obvious exception.
 
Thought Experiment:

Imagine yourself to be an analyst for one of these on-line services.

Further imagine that on a given Wednesday in August, six modestly rated (5.5 Three Star) prospects commit to their schools of choice. Further imagine that these are the six respective schools receiving the Six commitments on that Wednesday:

(1) Vandy;
(2) Oregon State;
(3) Northwestern;
(4) Ohio State
(5) Bama;
(6) Virginia.

Honestly, if you were working for a living analyzing High School talent and took your job seriously, which of the six players would you look at with more interest knowing their college choice?

Now, combine that thought with this: you objectively know that Bama and Ohio State EACH have more paying subscribers than the other four University fan bases combined.

And your income is dependent, ultimately, upon subscriptions.

I do not believe there is an anti-Kentucky bias, specifically . . . rather - - - there is a bias against the entirety of FBS teams, with about 15 exceptions, and almost all of these exceptions now reside in either the Big Ten or the SEC, Notre Dame being the most obvious exception.
You nailed it, these pay recruiting sites pander to the schools that produce the most subscribers. And I get it, they're in the business of making money. Best thing to do is use the site for names then find film and make up your own mind on the player.

Consider the curious case of one Sam Anaele. Anaele was a 4* DE out of FL who initially committed to Miami. He later decommitted from Miami, committed and eventually signed with UK. After his HS season was completed, after ALL competition was concluded, Rivals reranked Anaele and dropped him 101, that's ONE HUNDRED ONE, places in their ranking. That reranking cost UK, who had put together a nice class, several places in the team ranking category, that JUST SO HAPPENED to put them behind TN, a school with higher number of subscribers. That's just too obvious. As for Anaele, unfortunately he dealt with injuries almost from Day One at UK and eventually had to give up football. To his immense credit, Sam Anaele was able to complete his undergrad work in just 3 years.
 
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I actually got some interesting responses a few years back* on a noticed tendency for UK guys to get dropped unexpectedly. What the answers revealed is that the rankings are basically note-comparing and hyper-focused on the top guys. What I gleaned from Woody's responses is that kids going to places like UK get dropped not for malicious reasons, but once they commit to UK (if they're not at a high profile HS) they just aren't get the Rivals guys' eyes on them and they may move up or down as needed to make everything else work. Unfortunately they won't just admit that.



*My questions were specifically about Denzil Ware. He dropped from a higher ranked 4 star to a 5.6 3* out of nowhere. The answers I got were (paraphrased), "He had a weird recruitment, we're worried about his mental focus." "He isn't putting on good weight." "He didn't stand out at camps." "His HS production isn't what you would expect from a 4 star guy."

So I went and looked up the articles ON HIS OWN RIVALS PROFILE about his most recent camps outings and every single one mentioned how well he performed. One even mentioned that he looked to have bulked up while still maintaining his athleticism. I then went to the local newspaper in Florida's website, and sure enough they had boxscores and writes up for every game of the season. He was averaging double digit tackles, multiple TFLs, and a forced turnover every game. To the head case insinuation, I asked about all of the kids who made teams buy their mom a house and then commit to another school, etc. and why that never affects their ranking.

I got no more responses after that.

Woody is awful, he is banned from posting on UGA's site. For whatever reason he took a personal dislike to Nick Chubb. Some of these kids may give a vibe off that makes them hard to like if you talk to them, but Chubb hardly said anything, ever. He said Chubb wasn't D1 lvl and played against weak competiton in HS. He was in love with the RB at UT who later transferred to Baylor and ended up playing WR, would go to UT board and laugh about stirring UGA fanbase up by downgrading Chubb, this was after Chubb's 4th or 5th game. Woody shouldn't have a job in this business any longer but took the banning and stayed.
 
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You nailed it, these pay recruiting sites pander to the schools that produce the most subscribers. And I get it, they're in the business of making money. Best thing to do is use the site for names then find film and make up your own mind on the player.

Consider the curious case of one Sam Anaele. Anaele was a 4* DE out of FL who initially committed to Miami. He later decommitted from Miami, committed and eventually signed with UK. After his HS season was completed, after ALL competition was concluded, Rivals reranked Anaele and dropped him 101, that's ONE HUNDRED ONE, places in their ranking. That reranking cost UK, who had put together a nice class, several places in the team ranking category, that JUST SO HAPPENED to put them behind TN, a school with higher number of subscribers. That's just too obvious. As for Anaele, unfortunately he dealt with injuries almost from Day One at UK and eventually had to give up football. To his immense credit, Sam Anaele was able to complete his undergrad work in just 3 years.
The Sam Anaele that 247 had as a 3 star. The same one that got his ranking because of his measurements and athleticism at a rivals camp. The same one that shouldn’t have been ranked as high as 247 had him. The one that barely if ever played at UK. That Sam Anaele should have been ranked just outside the top 100? No he shouldn’t have been near the 209 that he ended up at.

Miami had 21 commits. Only 4 were ranked as high as Sam. They had 17 3 star guys why did they raise them.

Gunner Stockton UGA QB. Initially a 5 star. Commits to UGA, and a few months later drops to 175 rivals and 110 247 composite of 124.. Why would they drop one of UGA’s top recruits? It played out that they were correct dropping both.

Now to what Hack said a 5.5 commits to OSU or Bama. Of course they are gonna get another look by the ananysts. A good example is Dallas Turner. Whether a late bloomer or didn’t go to camps, he was ranked 750ish on 247. The two schools recruiting him the hardest Bama and UGA. After evaluating he jumps to a mid 4 star. By the time he commits he is too 50. Final rankings top 10. We all know how that turned out.
 
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My final word on “Star Ratings!”

They have VERY limited value on a purely Individual basis. Hence Josh Allen is Kentucky’s most decorated football player in more than a Century, with a 2/3 Star rating and a competing offer from Monmouth.

But when you move to higher numbers, the ratings begin to have a correlative value: the SEC recruits more 4 and 5 Star players, and tends to dominate college football.
no doubt that the teams that sit on top of the recruiting rankings are playing for championships
so there is no doubt that there is a correlation between star ranking and winning championships
as we all know there will always be outliers like Josh Allen
 
If you keep up with recruiting rankings, UK comes in with an average star rating of 3.56 which puts us at 16th. The normal powerhouses are ahead of us but we’ve been getting commitments from guys a lot of the big programs want, no doubt we can compete with that level of recruit and supplement with some of the higher rated guys in the portal as we’ve been doing. I think the analyst’s hit on more of these four and five star guys than they miss as there’s a handful of teams constantly stocked with them who always are in the playoffs but one thing Stoops is really good at imo is identifying some lower rated guys with high upside that fit his system. Can’t wait for this season to start, first time physically in three years I’ll be able to sit in the stands. Actually looking forward to legally have my first drink in Commonwealth Stadium.
 
no doubt that the teams that sit on top of the recruiting rankings are playing for championships
so there is no doubt that there is a correlation between star ranking and winning championships
as we all know there will always be outliers like Josh Allen
Yup, the star system is about statistics and probability. A recruit being rated a 5 * has a much higher statistical chance of being a top 2 round NFL draft pick than 3 * or lower.

But like all measures there are outliers....Josh Allen overcame being a low 2*, Jamin Davis low 3* to be 1st rounders. Sadly there are 5 * who never do anything like Kenyatta Goodwin.
 
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no doubt that the teams that sit on top of the recruiting rankings are playing for championships
so there is no doubt that there is a correlation between star ranking and winning championships
as we all know there will always be outliers like Josh Allen
In 2022, TX A&M signed the #1 ranked football class in the country. Two years later, Jimbo was fired and given the biggest contract buyout in college sports history because his football team sucked and he didn't develop his players.

Football teams win by outscoring their opponents. Class rankings don't put points on the scoreboard. The best teams generally have the most quality depth despite the fact that highly recruited players leave early every year for the draft or the portal. That's on player development. Player development is evidence of great coaching, and great coaches do their own player evaluations.

The last national championship game was contested between MI and WA.

Here are MI's recruiting class rankings-

2020- #10
2021- #13
2022- #9
2023- #17

MI was soundly outrecruited by OH St in terms of class rankings but Harbaugh kept beating the Buckeyes head to head. That's on professional player evaluation and development.

Here are WA's recruiting class rankings-

2020- #17
2021- #30
2022- #95
2023- #26

In terms of recruiting class rankings, very mediocre. But WA made it to the Championship Game. QB Michael Penix, recently picked in the 1st round as the #8 overall choice in the entire NFL draft, was a middling 3 star prospect ranked as the #154 player in the state of FL. That's on professional player evaluation and development. In terms of player development, Kalen DeBoer is such a good coach that AL just hired him away from WA.

People believe what they want to believe. You believe there is "no doubt" because you want to. But there is no indisputable proof, so of course there is doubt.
 
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In 2022, TX A&M signed the #1 ranked football class in the country. Two years later, Jimbo was fired and given the biggest contract buyout in college sports history because his football team sucked and he didn't develop his players.

Football teams win by outscoring their opponents. Class rankings don't put points on the scoreboard. The best teams generally have the most quality depth despite the fact that highly recruited players leave early every year for the draft or the portal. That's on player development. Player development is evidence of great coaching, and great coaches do their own player evaluations.

The last national championship game was contested between MI and WA.

Here are MI's recruiting class rankings-

2020- #10
2021- #13
2022- #9
2023- #17

MI was soundly outrecruited by OH St in terms of class rankings but Harbaugh kept beating the Buckeyes head to head. That's on professional player evaluation and development.

Here are WA's recruiting class rankings-

2020- #17
2021- #30
2022- #95
2023- #26

In terms of recruiting class rankings, very mediocre. But WA made it to the Championship Game. QB Michael Penix, recently picked in the 1st round as the #8 overall choice in the entire NFL draft, was a middling 3 star prospect ranked as the #154 player in the state of FL. That's on professional player evaluation and development. In terms of player development, Kalen DeBoer is such a good coach that AL just hired him away from WA.

People believe what they want to believe. You believe there is "no doubt" because you want to. But there is no indisputable proof, so of course there is doubt.
MI had very good classes in what you just posted
where was Bama, Ohio ST and Georgia they last 10 years or so
as you stated people will believe whatever they want
 
Michigan passed Ohio with slightly lower recruiting classes by being much better developing that talent. Esp on both lines of scrimmage. And getting their NIL to keep guys around for 4th yr instead of leaving for the draft early.

UK has some of those qualities, but our O line development has slipped in recent yrs. Our NIL seems to do a good job keeping frontline guys happy and not shopping for better offers.
 
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MI had very good classes in what you just posted
where was Bama, Ohio ST and Georgia they last 10 years or so
as you stated people will believe whatever they want
I am not following you there. The class rankings are public. You can look them up. I discussed TX A&M, MI, and WA. You said there is "NO DOUBT teams that sit on top of the class rankings are playing for national championships". But, taken literally, that is demonstrably untrue and I explained why it is untrue. But you will believe what you want to believe. I am not trying to change your mind. I just want others to understand why what you said isn't factual.
 
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