Semi Final gambling thread

[Tskware]

Already down on Penn State on the money line (+110) as opposed to taking the points, was only +1.5 when I wagered.

Really thinking hard of taking Texas (+192) on the money line as well. Nearly 2-1 odds on what should be a highly partisan Cotton Bowl crowd. And OSU can't play lights out four games in a row . . . can they?

 

[gojvc]

Already down on Penn State on the money line (+110) as opposed to taking the points, was only +1.5 when I wagered.

Really thinking hard of taking Texas (+192) on the money line as well. Nearly 2-1 odds on what should be a highly partisan Cotton Bowl crowd. And OSU can't play lights out four games in a row . . . can they?

Your “break even” at +192 would be Texas winning 34.2% of the time. If they played 100 times I think Texas would be doing well to win a third of them. So I wouldn’t like that bet. But if you think more highly of Texas than I do then it might make sense for you.

 

[YaketySax]

Mine...

PSU +1.5
OSU -6
ND St moneyline

 

[catsfanbgky]

Under 47 PSU / ND
Under 54 OSU / Texas

If you kept up with Yakety Sax' weekly gambling threads, I had a very positive season in college football. Best year I have had in some time. I think defense will be very good in both games.

 

[Tskware]

Mine...

PSU +1.5
OSU -6
ND St moneyline

Question for you so I can learn something. What is your thought betting Penn State +1.5 at -110 vigorish, versus betting the money line at +110? Assuming we both bet $100, I make 110 where you only make 100 and spread doesn't matter unless Notre Dame wins by exactly one point. And if we lose, I only lose 100 but you lose 110. Maybe I am missing something, but how likely is it that ND wins by 1 point?

On Texas game, seems like the spread is falling a bit, was 6.5 when I checked, but ML is up to +196. Ohio State looks great, but generally speaking, getting the top remaining SEC team at 2-1 odds straight up, playing on essentially their home field, has proven over time to be a profitable course of action.

Caveat: I will concede that past history may not mean near as much in the new age of transfer portal and NIL.

 

[YaketySax]

Question for you so I can learn something. What is your thought betting Penn State +1.5 at -110 vigorish, versus betting the money line at +110? Assuming we both bet $100, I make 110 where you only make 100 and spread doesn't matter unless Notre Dame wins by exactly one point. And if we lose, I only lose 100 but you lose 110. Maybe I am missing something, but how likely is it that ND wins by 1 point?

On Texas game, seems like the spread is falling a bit, was 6.5 when I checked, but ML is up to +196. Ohio State looks great, but generally speaking, getting the top remaining SEC team at 2-1 odds straight up, playing on essentially their home field, has proven over time to be a profitable course of action.

Caveat: I will concede that past history may not mean near as much in the new age of transfer portal and NIL.

There’s not much difference. For me, I like the extra insurance of a point and a half even if unlikely they lose by a point. I like moneylines after they climb over +130 most of the time.

 

[gamecockcat]

I've seen enough of TX this year to not trust them. They can look like a juggernaut for a stretch and then disappear for 2 quarters (like they did against ASU). Still don't seem as physical as OSU on either line although TX defense is legit. Of course, I thought TN's defense was also legit and OSU ran through them with ease. It would concern me that Sark has times when he goes for too much rather than just making a first down and that could get them in trouble against the Buckeyes. I just think OSU is the better team and would win 75+% of the time if they played 100 times. Ewers may be due to have one of 'those' games where he does nothing right for a long stretch. If OSU gets it rolling, they're tough to beat, imo.

 

[Tskware]

I actually may not bet the UT game until after the Penn State game, i.e., see how much I win/lose on the first game. I really do like PSU though, ND caught a lot of breaks vs. a wounded Georgia team, and only scored 6 points offensively, if you don't count the 13 yard 1 play drive after the fumble right before half.

 

[TOMCATS1990]

Leaning Penn State on M/L and Texas plus the 5.5. Think Penn St wins outright and Texas keeps it close but Ohio State advances. Fan Duel before the season started I made a 1.00 bet at +28000 for Ohio State to win the Title and Travis Hunter to win the Heisman.