SDS Prediction for our season

[bthaunert]

We have the 6th toughest schedule in the nation and for you to say 7 wins, almost 3 wins over our historical avg, is mediocrity is absurd. Stoops has raised the floor, but he's not a miracle worker. We all want better, but checking emotion(thinking without logic) will help with setting yourself up for disappointment. You want more wins? Start contributing to the football NIL and convincing your friends to do the same. Last I heard there was only like 600 of us donating. That is the #1 hurdle keeping us from taking the next step we all want to take.

Comparing historical markers can be a little dangerous. Take Jerry Claiborne as an example.

His first year he went 0-10-1. Well, his OOC schedule included 6-5-1 Kansas State, 8-4 Oklahoma, 9-1-1 Clemson and 7-4 Virginia Tech.
His second year, he went 6-5-1...add in a cupcake OOC team like we have now and he is 7-5-1
His third year, he went 9-3....add in a cupcake OOC team and he is 10-3
His 5th year, he went 5-5-1...add in a cupcake OOC team and he is 6-5-1
His 6th year, he went 5-6...add in a cupcake OOC team and he is 6-6
His 7th year, he went 5-6....add in a cupcake OOC team and he is 6-6
His 8th year, he went 6-5....add in a cupcake OOC team and he is 7-5

IMO, 7-5/3-5 is mediocre. You're never going to convince we otherwise. I agree that Stoops has raised the floor and I used to make the same argument you're making. I am 100% thinking with logic and it's not just a feeling that we should win more. If you look at our recruiting rankings compared to our schedule, I have felt the following:

1. We are always going to have more talent on the field than our 4 OOC opponents and Vandy.
2. Almost every year, we have a better recruiting class than USC. We should have more talent on the field than them.
3. Until this year, we played Mississippi State and Missouri every year. From a recruiting perspective, we are all right in the same ballpark.

That is 8 teams right off the bat that we have as much or more talent than. Depending on who your rotating west team has been, it could be 9. We also have too much talent now, and should shrink the gap that we shouldn't be getting beat by 30 plus points by anyone anymore.

I've got no issues with paying Stoops what he makes. But with that comes expectations. Based on that information, I feel like 8-4/4-4 should be the floor of this program.

As for NIL, I've got no argument against your point there as I know NIL is important for us to compete. With that said, we are still at a place where we should be expecting 8-4/4-4. This year, we are better than Southern Miss, USC, Ohio, Vandy, Auburn, Murray and UL. We are just as good (if not better) than UF. We should expect to win those games. We should also expect that when we play UT, Ole Miss, Texas and UGA, we don't get blown out in any of those games. I do not think that expectation is unrealistic or absurd.

 

[PhattyJ4UK]

People who justify 7-5 bc of the schedule are a big reason we remain mediocre year in year out.

 

[Soupbean]

Winning >7 games this season with the schedule we have is gonna be tough. We play, what, 8 or 9 preseason top 25 teams? I mean, yeah, I get it. We all want 8+ wins consistently. But, that's a tall order to win that many this year against what will be one of the toughest schedules in the country. Especially considering breaking in a new OC, a new QB, several new RBs, a secondary that is unproven thus far, at least 2 new starters on the OL, etc. Not saying it can't happen, just that it would be somewhat surprising if all the above proved to be just fine and we won the games we should, all/most of the tossup and at least one big upset.

However, I don't get the love for USCjr. They've become the UofL of the SEC - preseason love, actual season mediocrity. Yes, they've beaten us recently but, on paper, I think we're superior to them this year. It's not a 'gimme' game by any means and we can't take them lightly, but I believe that would be an upset if they win.

There is no question 8+ wins this year is an accomplishment not just for us but for a lot of SEC teams like us. But for me its not just about the wins its how we compete. If we win 7 or 8 and pick off on of these (Texas, UGA, UT and Ole Miss) or just have a real chance to win in all of them I'm happy with that. I just dont want to see a big separation from us and the upper tier.

 

[Soupbean]

I agree, but there are way too many voices that say “well, at least it’s slightly better than it used to be.” Heck, I turned on KSR a couple days ago and Jones was saying 6 wins should be celebrated because 14 years ago or whatever it was, Joker (the worst coach in UK football history) got blown out by Vandy. That’s the mindset we’re dealing with

To be fair Matt Jones doesnt even know half the players names on one of the most talented teams we'll suit up in years. Acted like he never heard of Dumas-Johnson or Keeshawn Silver. I wanted to say come on man, your show is supposed to be the go to for UK sports, that's embarrasing.

 

[hmt5000]

At this point, I believe the only game they are underdogs in is the Bama game. I could be wrong but I don't believe UK plays Missouri in 24.

But I saw a bowl/Playoff projection by CBS I believe and they had Missouri missing the playoffs, 4 SEC teams with ATM being the surprise team over both Missouri and OM. As much money as OM spent on the portal ole Lane's welcome may get bumpy. Boosters don't spent as much h as the OM boosters to play in the Independence Bowl.

But all the talk and speculation is almost over, football season is here. HS football started in Georgia this week. Ironically where I live had bad storms come through about 7 Friday night and all games, 5 of them, were rescheduled for Sat, first time I can remember that happening.

This new schedule is killing me. I just keep remembering the old schedule. LOL.

 

[UKCatnNC]

Road to a "good" season :
Cupcakes (4) - S. Miss / Vandy / Ohio U / Murray State
Must wins (3) - SC (@home) / Auburn (@home) / Louisville (@home)
That is 7 "good chance of happening" wins.

Possible upsets (2) - @ Florida / @ Ole Miss (will be very tough)

For sure losses (3) - Georgia / UT / Texas

Win the 7 we have a really good shot at winning, beat either UF / Ole Miss and 8-4 is POSSIBLE.
Lose 2/3 or all 3 of the "must wins" and both upset chances and the season goes off the rails, 5-7, 4-8 not out of the question.

So in short, WTF knows. The 3 games against USC / Auburn / Louisville are VERY important to UK making some noise. At WORST, they must win 2/3 of those. Good news is the 3 most important games needed to win are all at home. Bad news is, both of the possible upsets are on the road. How UK plays in road games will determine whether or not the season is considered good / average or bad.

I just don't see Fla as an upset. I think we have a good chance to win this one. GO CATS!!

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

This new schedule is killing me. I just keep remembering the old schedule. LOL.

At this point I am thrilled to remember which team I pull for