Thanks for the great breakdown, and thanks to the Shocker fan for dropping by. I would say most UK fans would be rooting for WSU against any other tournament opponent.
A few thoughts on what should be a great game:
The Cats need Bam for the full game, he has to avoid early fouls. The Shockers will have no answer for him so their odds increase dramatically if they can get a couple early ones on him.
Frankamp has to make a high % of his threes to keep them in the game (I expect him to), Briscoe, or any of the guards, will abuse him on drives. Cats have a major advantage on O in this matchup.
Monk doesn't have to be on fire for UK to win but if he gets hot it's gonna be extremely difficult to pull the upset.
The Cats need to run, run, run. A half court, grind it out game will play into the Shockers strengths and limit UKs athletic advantage. If it does turn into an ugly game I expect Hawkins/Briscoe to play major minutes and thrive. Neither are afraid to mix it up in a slugfest.
No lead will be safe, no deficit insurmountable. Of course, Kentucky has had many sluggish starts this year and has made some great comebacks. I would not be surprised to see the Cats get in an early 15 point hole and then turn it on and win comfortably. They could likewise have a 20 point lead with 7 min to go and end up in a one possession game at the end. It could be a wild one.
I like UKs chances if it's a who can make the last shot type of game. Fox has become deadly as a closer and has put the team in a position to win more often than not. The substantial improvement in team FT shooting will pay off in this scenario.
In the end I think UKs guards will simply be too much for WSU. Nobody has been able to stop Fox. Nobody can stop Monk (except Monk). Briscoe should get to the rim at will.
So, Bam stays out of foul trouble: UK-79 WS-69. Foul issues for Bam: UK-93 WSU-92 in OT. GBB!