Scouting West Virginia

[IL Wildcat]

West Virginia Mountaineers
Head Coach: Bob Huggins
Overall Record: 25-9
Big 12 Record: 11-7
Neutral Record: 8-1
Kentucky leads series 14-5

Game location: Cleveland, OH
Venue: Quicken Loans Arena (capacity: 20,562)
TV Coverage: CBS
Announcers: Marv Albert, Chris Webber, Len Elmore and Lewis Johnson
Tip time: 9:55 EST

Schedule
N14 Monmouth West Virginia W/64-54
N16 Lafayette W/83-56
N20 vs. George Mason W/91-65
N21 vs. Boston College W/70-66
N23 vs. Connecticut W/78-68
N26 vs. VMI W/103-72
N29 College of Charleston W/86-57
D4 LSU L/73-74
D7 at Northern Kentucky W/67-42
D14 vs. Marshall W/69-66
D20 vs. NC State W/83-69
D22 Wofford W/77-44
D30 Virginia Tech W/82-51
J3 at TCU * W/78-67
J5 at Texas Tech * W/78-67
J10 Iowa State * L/72-74
J13 Oklahoma * W/86-65
J17 at Texas * L/50-77
J24 TCU * W/86-85 OT
J27 at Kansas State * W/65-59
J31 Texas Tech * W/77-58
F3 at Oklahoma * L52-71
F7 Baylor * L/69-87
F11 Kansas State * W/76-72
F14 at Iowa State * L/59-79
F16 Kansas * W/62-61
F21 at Oklahoma State * W/73-63
F24 Texas * W/71-64
F28 at Baylor * L/66-78
M3 at Kansas * L/69-76 OT
M7 Oklahoma State * W/81-72
M12 vs. Baylor L/70-80
M20 vs. Buffalo W/68-62
M22 vs. Maryland W/69-59
M26 vs. Kentucky 9:55 p.m. EST

Probable Starters
F #5 Devin Williams 6-9 255 So. 11.6 ppg, 8.2 rpg, no 3pt threat
F #1 Jonathan Holton 6-7 220 Jr. 7.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, .213 3fg
G #3 Juwan Staten 6-1 190 Sr. 14.2 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 4.8 ast, .352 3fg
G #14 Gary Browne 6-1 195 Sr. 7.2 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.5ast, .385 3fg
G #4 Daxter Miles Jr. 6-3 185 Fr. 7.5 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.0 ast, .360 3fg

Bench
G #2 Jevon Carter 6-2 185 Fr. 8.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.8 ast, 2.0stl, .322 3fg
G #0 Jaysean Paige 6-2 200 Jr. 5.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg, .385 3fg
F #45 Elijah Macon 6-9 240 r-Fr. 4.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, no 3pt threat
G #12 Tarik Phillip 6-3 185 So. 4.1 ppg, 1.5 rpg, .222 3fg
F #11 Nathan Adrian 6-9 235 So. 2.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg, .177 3fg
G #10 Chase Connor 6-1 190 So. 2.1 ppg, .349 3fg
F #20 Brandon Watkins 6-9 245 So. 2.0 ppg, 1.5 rpg, no 3pt threat
F #21 BillyDee Williams 6-6 215 Jr. 1.3 ppg, 1.6 rpg, .286 3fg

Team stats
points per game: 73.6 (UK: 74.7)
points allowed: 66.5 (UK: 53.9)
scoring margin: +7.1 (UK: +20.8)
field goal pct: .412 (UK: .466)
field goal pct allowed: .468 (UK: .351)
3-point FG pct: .320 (UK: .347)
3-point FG made per game: 6.6 (UK: 5.3)
3-point FG pct allowed: .368 (UK: .270)
free throw pct: .664 (UK: .722)
rebounds per game: 36.5 (UK: 38.5)
rebounds allowed: 33.1 (UK: 31.1)
rebounding margin: +3.4 (UK: +7.4)
assists per game: 14.3 (UK: 14.6)
turnovers per game: 12.9 (UK: 10.6)
turnover margin: +6.7 (UK: +3.4)
assist/turnover ratio: 1.1 (UK: 1.4)
steals per game: 10.9 (UK: 6.6)
blocks per game: 2.7 (UK: 6.9)

Important kenpom stats:
1. WVU is #272 in 3pt FG percentage, shooting only 32%.
2. WVU is #250 in 2pt FG percentage, shooting only 45.9%.
3. WVU is #271 in FT percentage, shooting only 66.4% as a team.
4. WVU is #275 in effective FG percentage.
5. WVU is one of the worst teams in the nation, #351, in fouls per field goal attempt. That is, their opponents have shot a free throw for 55.2% of their field goal attempts. That means they are VERY foul prone.

Analysis: Well, here we go again. It's UK versus West Virginia in the NCAA-T. It's Calipari versus Huggins. I suppose we might have been talking about this potential match-up when the brackets first came out, but I think we all doubted the Mountaineers would make it to this game. But here they are. The talk this week has been about Huggins' record against Calipari head to head, which is 8-2 all time. They won't mention that the majority of those games were played when Calipari was rebuilding Memphis. The second story line has been the fact that it was West Va that knocked out the UK team of Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, Patterson, et al, back in 2010. They won't mention that Kentucky beat the Mountaineers the very next season in the NCAA-T. The third storyline has been West Virginia's press being the reason the Mountaineers could potentially knock off the Cats and end their quest for a perfect season. That press, we've been told, is MUCH better than anything UK has faced this year. What they seem to be overlooking is that Kentucky has played 7 teams with a higher rated defense than the Mountaineers. They also have totally ignored West Virginia's horrid offensive statistics. Kentucky even got its own special on ESPN this week "creatively" entitled "How to Beat Kentucky?" Has anyone ever seen anything like this before? Not me. They also seem to be overlooking the fact that Calipari's teams at Kentucky are 4-0 in Sweet 16 games. Actually, Calipari's teams have played some of their best games in the Sweet 16. Ok, now on to the Mountaineers.

West Virginia's game plan this season begins with its defense. They play a style similar to Arkansas or Louisville, with pressing and trapping all over the floor, but it's that style on acid. They will basically trap you everywhere. They trap in the backcourt on the first inbounds pass. They trap the next guy who receives a pass from that trap. When the ball crosses half court, they trap whoever has the ball in his hands. It is definitely a relentless trapping press. They will, at times, drop back into a zone in the half-court, but even that zone features traps above the hash mark and in the corners. They have 7 players who average at least 1 steal per game, which is an amazing stat, so they will get after you.

From a personnel standpoint, the Mountaineers play a huge number of guys. They have played at least 10 guys in every game this season. Those 10 average 13 minutes per game or more. They usually play at least 12 guys in every game. Some of them will only come in for a couple minutes and be done. But this is the way they keep the press at a high energy level for the entire game. I think Huggins must have realized at some point last season that he just didn't have the personnel to play his usual style and that this was his best chance at winning with this group of guys. It's been a good move on his part.

Despite the sheer number of players West Virginia uses, they still have several guys who are critically important. It begins with their point guard, Juwan Staten. He is definitely the most important guy on the floor. He leads the team in points and assists, but he also rebounds well and gets his fair share of steals also. He's a decent 3pt shooter and is very good at taking his man off the dribble. The next most critical player for the team is Devin Williams, the 6-9 255 power forward who anchors the middle for the Mountaineers. In regard to importance to the team, Williams is right there with Staten, in my opinion. He's their best low post presence, and it's not close. I'd even go so far as to say that he's likely the team's mvp this season. Staten is extremely valuable and leads the team, but Huggins has guards in spades. Williams leads the team in rebounding and is second on the team in scoring, and he's also the team's best low post defender.

The other two starting guards are Gary Browne and Daxter Miles Jr. These 2 guys are in the game for their defense primarily, though both guys can score some as well. Their main role is trapping and forcing turnovers to convert into easy points. They are at the front of the press and are two of the better 3pt shooting players on the team. This is why they start. The other starting forward is Jonathan Holton. He's a 6-7 220 forward who provides Huggins with a guy who can press and give him a little bit bigger body for defensive purposes. He is second in rebounding and fourth in scoring on the team. From the bench, the third best scorer and steals leader on the team is Jevon Carter. Don't let his non-starting fool you. He's the third most critical player on the team. He plays more minutes than anyone outside Staten and Williams. He would be starting if he could shoot the ball better. It's that simple.

The 4 other bench players who get double-digit minutes are guards Jaysean Paige and Tarik Phillip and forwards Elijah Macon and Nathan Adrian. These guys are interchangeable in the system. Paige is the best scorer and shooter of the bunch, which helps him get a few more minutes than Phillip. Adrian can defend a little better, so that gets him more minutes than Macon. As I say, Huggins figured out last season that this team can't play in his normal style and win many games. That's why he switched to this full court pressing style that is designed to hide deficiencies and create easy points. The problem for West Virginia is they are a very poor shooting team. They shoot only 32% from 3. They shoot only 46% from 2. They shoot only 66.4% from the free throw line. These stats are all ranked 250 or worse in the nation. This is why Huggins made the switch. So, the question becomes this: can West Virginia overcome their lack of shooting and scoring with their defense? That's the question in every game for them. When it works well, they win. When it doesn't, they can get beat by a large margin. It's been feast or famine for the Mountaineers. They've won 25 games, which is great. But Texas beat them by 27. Oklahoma beat them by 19. Iowa State beat them by 20. Baylor beat them 3 times by 18, 12, and 10.

I think the question in this particular game comes down to UK instead of West Virginia. That may sound arrogant, but I really believe it's true, especially in this game. West Virginia is going to do their thing. They will press, they will trap, they will hold, slap, claw, and they will get whistled for a bunch of fouls. They will score somewhere in the upper 50s, lower 60s in my opinion, depending on how well they are shooting the 3. So, the question becomes about UK. Will the pressure cause our Cats to be uncharacteristically loose with the ball? Will the Cats be able to break the press and score? Teams have pressured UK many times this season, and every time they have, the Cats have done well. Against Louisville's defense, which is more efficient than West Virginia's, the Cats turned the ball over a few more times than normal, but those turnovers didn't lead to many points for Louisville. I think West Virginia's press will cause UK a little trouble at times during the game, but I think the Cats will solve it consistently. I still expect the Mountaineers to keep it up. But the Cats not only have 2 excellent point guards who can play side by side (which is a great luxury to have against a pressing team), they also have 7 other guys who are not turnover prone, and everyone on the team can run the floor and finish on the break.

Vegas says this game is UK-13. KenPom says it will be a UK win, 75-62. I don't think UK has played a good game yet in the NCAA-T and they're due. UK's defense is made for this kind of opponent. I think Booker is due a break-out game as well. UK has been shooting well from the FT line and they will get a bunch of chances in this game. Our guys will thrive against this style and leave the UK haters throwing their hands up in frustration. The Cats have heard enough about West Virginia's amazing press. The Cats have heard enough of how they can be beat. The Cats are ready to prove that Calipari, not Huggins, is the best. Kentucky 80 West Virginia 58

Scouting West Va on BigBlueTheory

 

[UKGrad93]

Thanks for the write up. I noticed that you did not mention the 1-3-1 zone. I have seen it mentioned on the board several times and I know that WVU used it against us in 2010. Has WVU played the 1-3-1 zone this year? Do you think they will use it for this game?

 

[BigSexyCat]

That was a great write-up, very informative. Hope you continue to do one for each opponent if we advance.

 

[kornucopia]

Thanks IL Wildcat! Phenomenal as always

 

[Blueisbest]

If the "neers play a 1-3-1 against us let's hope Devin can break out of his slump and knock down some outside shots. We are tall enough where we can possibly throw over the zone for alley oops by WCS and KAT.

 

[canebreak]

I posted this elsewhere but I still think their depth is more legend than fact. Let Davis get in foul trouble and their depth will look puny. Also, if they fall behind, Huggy won't be so inclined to use that depth. I think it is only an issue in a close game or a game where they maintain a lead.

 

[catfaninsc]

A+ job as usual Il Wildcat.

 

[Blueaz]

OP thread title is soooo misleading...I was hoping to find the "sang"

 

[truth79]

Excellent

 

[DORTONCAT]

Originally posted by MdWIldcat55:
Thanks. Insightful as always.

I'm almost afraid Huggins sees early that the press is not working and goes back to that match-up zone that caused UK to lob 20 futile 3-pointers at the basket in 2010. I know this team has better shooters, on paper. But with Booker still working himself out of a slump, if I were Huggins I'd think I had a better long-shot chance with that defense.


I am sure you and everyone else knows there are more ways of scoring against the 1-3-1 zone defense, than shooting from 3-point range. The "lob" to the basket, when the offense gets behind the defense works very well as does the "back-door" cut and pass. Also, the mid range jump shot (Trey Lyles, KAT, WCS, Ad. Harrison, D. Booker and T. Ulis) can be very effective. Offensive rebounding can be huge as well and of course, making free throws always helps you win. And then,,, the other team has to be able to out score you before they can win so very good defense on UK's part will be a factor.

 

[FlCATFan]

I just watched replays of their late season games against Baylor and Kansas. They seem to do a really poor job of defending guards driving the lane, especially from the top of the key. Andrew and Tyler should have huge games.

 

[crazyqx83]

I see a team that is inferior in every single statistical category, besides forcing turnovers.

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

Thanks ILWildcat

 

[MychalG]

They MAY force us into some turnovers but when we get by the first trap, it should be easy pickings on our end. In the half court when we have the ball, who do they have that can match up with Trey and Karl? If Karl stays on the floor he should have a field day inside. Sure they beat us in 2010 because we were 0-20 from 3 before we hit one. Did we have Aaron, Devin, Andrew or Tyler on that team, no we did not. What are chances we shoot 0-20 from 3, slim to none and slim just left town. I like our chances and since the WVA players are running their mouths, I hope we put the pedal to the metal and don't let up until the final buzzer. I want an epic beat down..

 

[kyjeff1]

Why do so many people on this board bring up the 2010 game but never talk about the 2011 game? Everyone acts like Cal can't beat Huggins but he out-coached him in 2011. Huggins tried that 1-3-1 zone again and it worked in the first half but Cal made the right adjustments and the cats shredded Wva in the 2nd half. This UK team is so much better and they are going to stomp Wva tomorrow night.

 

[UKWildcats#8]

Originally posted by MychalG:

They MAY force us into some turnovers but when we get by the first trap, it should be easy pickings on our end. In the half court when we have the ball, who do they have that can match up with Trey and Karl? If Karl stays on the floor he should have a field day inside. Sure they beat us in 2010 because we were 0-20 from 3 before we hit one. Did we have Aaron, Devin, Andrew or Tyler on that team, no we did not. What are chances we shoot 0-20 from 3, slim to none and slim just left town. I like our chances and since the WVA players are running their mouths, I hope we put the pedal to the metal and don't let up until the final buzzer. I want an epic beat down..

Yup, this year's team does not jack up a lot of 3's. They have shot 554, making 192 of them for almost 35%. By comparison the 2010 team jacked up 697, making 231 for 33%. That is 18.3 a game over 38 games, compared to 15.3 over 36 games for this year's UK team. That does not seem like a big difference, but it shows this year's team takes better shots from three.

UK should not shoot hardly any 3's against anyone they play coming up. WVU? No size and press will lead to easy layups, dunks and FT opportunities. ND or WSU? No size, can score at will inside and driving to the rim. Wisconsin? UK shot 5 against them last year, and that includes the one by Aaron that he had to take at the end to win the game. Duke? Nothing inside other than Okafor so best to attack the basket and go inside. Now Arizona is the one team where UK may have to hit some outside shots to win, as they are the only team UK could play coming up that plays good D.

 

[UKWildcats#8]

Originally posted by MychalG:

They MAY force us into some turnovers but when we get by the first trap, it should be easy pickings on our end. In the half court when we have the ball, who do they have that can match up with Trey and Karl? If Karl stays on the floor he should have a field day inside. Sure they beat us in 2010 because we were 0-20 from 3 before we hit one. Did we have Aaron, Devin, Andrew or Tyler on that team, no we did not. What are chances we shoot 0-20 from 3, slim to none and slim just left town. I like our chances and since the WVA players are running their mouths, I hope we put the pedal to the metal and don't let up until the final buzzer. I want an epic beat down..

Yup, this year's team does not jack up a lot of 3's. They have shot 554, making 192 of them for almost 35%. By comparison the 2010 team jacked up 697, making 231 for 33%. That is 18.3 a game over 38 games, compared to 15.3 over 36 games for this year's UK team. That does not seem like a big difference, but it shows this year's team takes better shots from three.

UK should not shoot hardly any 3's against anyone they play coming up. WVU? No size and press will lead to easy layups, dunks and FT opportunities. ND or WSU? No size, can score at will inside and driving to the rim. Wisconsin? UK shot 5 against them last year, and that includes the one by Aaron that he had to take at the end to win the game. Duke? Nothing inside other than Okafor so best to attack the basket and go inside. Now Arizona is the one team where UK may have to hit some outside shots to win, as they are the only team UK could play coming up that plays good D.

 

[Teachable Moe]

I watched the WVU-Kansas game, and contrary to the boasts about WVU's conditioning, they ran Kansas out of the gym in the first half and then simply ran out of gas themselves.

WVU's full court press is over-rated. Their traps on the dribbler in half-court are fantastic, though.

Get ready for a free throw marathon. It will be a very graceless game.

 

[westerncat]

Thanks IL Wildcat, I have learned more about WV from your post than all of that other junk that is put out by ESPN and other writers. Great post!

 

[IL Wildcat]

Originally posted by UKGrad93:

Thanks for the write up. I noticed that you did not mention the 1-3-1 zone. I have seen it mentioned on the board several times and I know that WVU used it against us in 2010. Has WVU played the 1-3-1 zone this year? Do you think they will use it for this game?

Hey UKGrad, to my knowledge, they haven't run that 1-3-1 zone this season. I don't expect to see it, either. Their team isn't really made well for that zone. You need great athletes who are tall and long to make that zone work. Their best athletes are guards. Their starters are 6-1, 6-1, 6-3, 6-7, and 6-9. That's why Huggins switched from zone/man to man to the press this year. His personnel required him to make this change.


That 2009-10 WVA team went 6-2, 6-7, 6-7, 6-8, and 6-9, long, athletic, and they had perfected that zone. And that UK team didn't have any shooters on the roster. There were a few guys who could get hot but they never did in that game. It was the perfect storm for WVA.

 

[UKGrad93]

Thanks IL Wildcat. I haven't watched WVU this year, so all I know are the talking points that keep coming up on this board.

 

[TheDude73]

Time to put this 2010 crap to rest. I don't care. I don't think really anyone cares. It was back then and the teams are not even the same players or styles. So silly.

And to remind people that after WVU gets these offensive rebounds everyone seems so worried about, they still have to find a way to score. FYI, Kentucky is one of the best in the country at defending second chance points. They allow a paltry 8.6 second chance points per game. Additionally, we are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country, so this has to balance out the hype around WVU's "amazing!" offensive rebounding.

So for every talking head that compares stats like they have been, we should immediately call them on it and not sit here and get all worried.

Let's take a deeper look at these so-called ominous offensive rebounding statistics, shall we?


Rankings/Totals in Rebounding Comparison:

Offensive Rebounds Per Game:

WVU: #1 @ 16.53 per game
UK: #25 @ 12.80 per game

Defensive Rebounds Per Game:

UK: 41st @ 25.64
WVU: 339th (!!!) @ 19.94 per game

Total Rebounds, All Games:

UK (36 games): #16 @ 1387 (464 OREBS, 923 DREBS)
WVU (34 games): #67 @ 1240 (562 OREBS, 678 DREBS)


What jumps out at you? Well, obviously WVU does do well at offensive rebounding. But we aren't slouches at defensive rebounding. So how does this not get brought up during all of the talking head / "experts" analyses? I've yet to hear any of them go this direction (which would be the obvious discussion if you were actually an expert analyst AND of course not trying to hype the underdog).

And this press and physical style they employ. Sure, it results in turnovers. In fact, as we have heard 1000 times already this week, WVU is the best in the game in this category. However, they are dead last (351st) in fouls given per game at 23.3, which is clearly a product of this pressing style they employ. Additionally, in 34 games they've had a whopping 22 foul-outs (in comparison, UK is 81st BEST in fouls given per game at 17, with half as many foul-outs (11) as WVU (half of those were probably Towns). One other thing to add - personal fouls per defensive play. This is essentially the frequency with which they foul their opponent while playing defense. WVU is 348th in the country in this category - they foul their opponent while on defense a whopping 30.6% of the time.

While we're still on this, where does WVU rank in opponent free throws attempted per game? Well, they lead in fouls given, nearly lead in foul frequency while on defense, so it should be no surprise they they are also the near-leader in how many free throws their opponent takes per game.

WVU is #337 in this category, allowing a staggering 25.6 free throws per game average (worse than Missouri - the worst in the SEC, who sits at 305 with 23 allowed per game. Other SEC teams down near WVU's ranking are South Carolina - 291st - Auburn - 286th, and Arkansas - 261st, all teams UK beat handily).

HOWEVER. Before we get all giddy about those foul/free throw stats, there is one more interesting and related statistic that I found surprising. WVU, in addition to being the #1 fouling team in the country, is also the #1 team in drawing fouls at 22.3 per game. So they give 23.3, but draw nearly as many. Very interesting indeed (UK is #36th in this category - drawing an average of 20 fouls per game).

Now on to turnovers. Earlier this evening, Shane Battier just flat-out lied on TV when trying to support his prediction that UK would lose tomorrow night to WVU. While hyping their ability to force turnovers, he said "Kentucky is one of the worst turnover teams in the country - they cough up 25% of their possessions!"

So how far off was he? Pretty far. Unfortunately, Shane, our Cats turn over only 13.5% of their possessions (10.6 per game), good for 26th best in Division I (as an example, Texas, Baylor and Maryland are much further down the list at 160th - 200th, with WVU at 225th in turnovers per game - worse than both Auburn and Missouri).

Moving on to yet another interesting stat, field goals attempted per game. For all of those people saying WVU is nothing like Arkansas, well, in this area they are. They're nearly dead alike, and this should be no surprise to any of us knowing how both of these teams love to get up and down.

WVU: # 4 with 61.3 shot attempts per game (!!!)
Ark: # 5 with 61.0 per game

Other significant stats that should be thrown out:

Opponents points per game allowed:

UK: #2 at 53.9 ppg
WVU: #154 at 66.5 ppg

Blocks per game:

UK #2 at 6.9 ppg (Texas #1)
WVU #252 at 2.7

Blocks allowed per game (essentially how many of your shots are blocked each game):

WVU #304 at 4.1 per game
UK: #16 at 2.7 per game

Opponent steals per game (how many steals you allow):

UK: #19 at 4.8 per game (6.1% of defensive plays are turned over). So WVU turns teams over the best, but we're in the top 20 in not allowing teams to turn us over.

So hopefully these peeks at statistical history for both teams help us all sleep tonight.

Cats by 21!

 

[musrat59]

Dadgummit, I have been waiting for this dadgum scouting report all week and as usual ILwildcat does a fantastic job in his report. Thanks, You really do a great job on these.

 

[IL Wildcat]

Hey TheDude, love those stats man.

Sometimes the talking heads will quote a particular stat just to make a particular point while ignoring the rest. For example, the big stat they've been quoting for West Va is their steals per game, which is #1 in the country.

Well, if all other things were equal (or at least average), that stat would be very meaningful and it would give the Mountaineers an edge in the game. The problem is, when you also consider West Virginia's woeful fg%, 3fg%, ft%, and foul rate, that stat about forcing steals is really brought into perspective. So yes, they force steals, but they also give back free points at the foul line because their press results in a bunch of fouls. So, when you consider the net effect of that frantic press, it's not nearly as good as it seems it would be when you see their steals numbers alone.

 

[MWes11]

One thing that really stands out is that Daxter Miles will have to guard Trey. Laughing just thinking about that. Our size will be overwhelming to them.

 

[YouKay]

Originally posted by IL Wildcat:

Originally posted by UKGrad93:

Thanks for the write up. I noticed that you did not mention the 1-3-1 zone. I have seen it mentioned on the board several times and I know that WVU used it against us in 2010. Has WVU played the 1-3-1 zone this year? Do you think they will use it for this game?

Hey UKGrad, to my knowledge, they haven't run that 1-3-1 zone this season. I don't expect to see it, either. Their team isn't really made well for that zone. You need great athletes who are tall and long to make that zone work. Their best athletes are guards. Their starters are 6-1, 6-1, 6-3, 6-7, and 6-9. That's why Huggins switched from zone/man to man to the press this year. His personnel required him to make this change.




That 2009-10 WVA team went 6-2, 6-7, 6-7, 6-8, and 6-9, long, athletic, and they had perfected that zone. And that UK team didn't have any shooters on the roster. There were a few guys who could get hot but they never did in that game. It was the perfect storm for WVA.

Eric Bledsoe could shoot, but he picked up two quick fouls early and wasn't a factor after that. This is rarely discussed when talking about that game. The game was tied and looked like a good dogfight that UK would win, until Bledsoe went out. In fact, Darnell Dodson played significant minutes in that game which should tell you something. The fact is that both of UK's starting guards in 2010 were freshmen, they had breezed through the regular season, and then ran into a unique defense with lots of very long guys that they had not seen before. They panicked and jacked up threes all night. They also played terrible defense, especially John Wall.

This year we have two seasoned guards who will be playing in their 80th game for UK. That is as many games as some juniors have played. We have two more guards who play beyond their years and are tough matchups. The WVU guards are tiny and will not be able to contest shots and pick off passes from our bigger guards. Our guards are MUCH better defenders than the 2010 bunch were. And we have better shot blockers if they do manage to slip through on drives. This WVU team does not play zone much if at all because they don't have the personnel for it. I expect our guards to have a field day against their man-to-man if they can hang on to the ball against WVU's traps. I think WVU will be fairly surprised at the speed of our players and their ability to turn corners on their defenders. If they sag on our bigs, our guards will make them pay.

In other words, there is very little chance that this game even remotely resembles the 2010 game.

 

[IL Wildcat]

Originally posted by YouKay:

Eric Bledsoe could shoot, but he picked up two quick fouls early and wasn't a factor after that. This is rarely discussed when talking about that game. The game was tied and looked like a good dogfight that UK would win, until Bledsoe went out. In fact, Darnell Dodson played significant minutes in that game which should tell you something. The fact is that both of UK's starting guards in 2010 were freshmen, they had breezed through the regular season, and then ran into a unique defense with lots of very long guys that they had not seen before. They panicked and jacked up threes all night. They also played terrible defense, especially John Wall.

This year we have two seasoned guards who will be playing in their 80th game for UK. That is as many games as some juniors have played. We have two more guards who play beyond their years and are tough matchups. The WVU guards are tiny and will not be able to contest shots and pick off passes from our bigger guards. Our guards are MUCH better defenders than the 2010 bunch were. And we have better shot blockers if they do manage to slip through on drives. This WVU team does not play zone much if at all because they don't have the personnel for it. I expect our guards to have a field day against their man-to-man if they can hang on to the ball against WVU's traps. I think WVU will be fairly surprised at the speed of our players and their ability to turn corners on their defenders. If they sag on our bigs, our guards will make them pay.

In other words, there is very little chance that this game even remotely resembles the 2010 game.

Hey YouKay, I was just looking back at that game. Bledsoe picked up his second foul with 13:18 left in the first half. At that point, UK had a 7pt lead. By halftime, West Va had a 2pt lead. So, there may be something to what you're saying. But it should be noted, Bledsoe went 0-5 in that game from 3, so he had his chances. You mentioned Dodson, but he was the only player to make 2 threes in the game for UK. Of course, he had to shoot 9 threes to make 2. He went 2-9. The problems in that game for UK were multiple...

1. We couldn't penetrate that zone very well at all. We shot 32 three pointers in that game, even though they weren't falling. Why?
2. When we did get inside, West Va was fouling us, but Kentucky's poor free throw shooting hurt badly in the game. UK went 16-29 from the foul line for 55.2% and lost the game by 7.
3. We had foul trouble throughout the game. Bledsoe not only picked up 2 early fouls in the first half, he also picked up 2 more early in the second half. He had 4 fouls by the 13:40 mark of the second half. Kentucky ended the game with 3 guys who fouled out, and Bledsoe wasn't one of them.
4. On the other end, UK's 3pt defense was not good and West Va was shooting it well, making some that were pretty ridiculous. They hit 10 threes in the game. Kevin Jones hit was 3-6. DeSean Butler was 4-8. Even Joe Mazzula, who couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, made his only three of the season that night.

West Virginia played their best game of the season. Kentucky played its worst game of the season. The Mountaineers proved it was a fluke when they came out in the next game and got slaughtered by Duke 78-57.

But your point is right on. This year's game looks nothing like that game did. UK relied very heavily that season on those freshman starters. It was kind of the reverse of this season. That year, the freshmen were the driving force behind the team- Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, Orton, Dodson. We also had 2 sophomore role players in Miller and Liggins who contributed. Then we had a junior Patrick Patterson. Patterson, Cousins, and Wall had decent games vs. West Va. Miller disappeared. Liggins still couldn't shoot at that point. Bledsoe was in foul trouble. Orton did nothing.

This season, UK has key contributors with significant experience who are leading the team. Namely, the Harrison twins, who led UK to the title game last season and are proven crunch time performers. Also, we have Cauley-Stein as a junior who has significant experience in big games. We also have Dakari Johnson, who, lest we forget, is a major part of the reason UK was able to lose Willie in that tournament last year but still make it to the title game. We also have Marcus Lee who has been overlooked often but has stepped up in big moments in his time at UK. And our freshmen this season are all very skilled players, but they don't have to carry the load alone, but they've been able to come along slowly and let their games develop. It's a much different scenario for UK this time around.

 

[Crankdatmustard]

They played a 1-3-1 zone several times against Buffalo due to foul trouble. They will go it if need be.

 

[wkycatfan]

WVU's personnel was more suited to the 1-3-1 zone in 2010 as I recall. They were long, and essentially played 4 forwards (each 6'7" - 6'9") and only 1 guard.

Huggins, being the good coach that he is, plays to his personnel. This year's team struggles to score, but is athletic, hence creating a game of chaos, hoping for turnovers is the way to go for this year's team. IMO, if you attack their press, or can throw over the top, you will get easy baskets.

 

[TheDude73]

Originally posted by IL Wildcat:
Hey TheDude, love those stats man.

Sometimes the talking heads will quote a particular stat just to make a particular point while ignoring the rest. For example, the big stat they've been quoting for West Va is their steals per game, which is #1 in the country.

Well, if all other things were equal (or at least average), that stat would be very meaningful and it would give the Mountaineers an edge in the game. The problem is, when you also consider West Virginia's woeful fg%, 3fg%, ft%, and foul rate, that stat about forcing steals is really brought into perspective. So yes, they force steals, but they also give back free points at the foul line because their press results in a bunch of fouls. So, when you consider the net effect of that frantic press, it's not nearly as good as it seems it would be when you see their steals numbers alone.

Thankie! My first go at digging around, and I started mainly to ease my own nerves.

Another thing that talking heads and even fans are guilty of is using a general statement of "turnovers". There are essentially three types of turnovers: forced, unforced, and charges. Forced being easy to discern - steals, 5 second calls on in-bounds plays, traps that result in 5 second calls, and traps that result in a player going out of bounds. Unforced is also easy - traveling violations, stepping out of bounds, bad/lazy passes that end up in the hands of the other team (not sure if stats keepers count this as a "steal"), bad/lazy passes that end up out of bounds, etc. And charges, which to me are considered both - forced and unforced. You need the defender to actively be in position to draw the charge, and the offensive player needs to be out of control to the point that they run in to the player and create the charge.

Obviously a team that leads in steals is one way to predict of the turnovers an opponent may have, how many might be "forced". But how many of say UK's 10.6 per game average are actually forced by the other team? We have watched every game, and just off of a wild guess from observations and memory of how many times I've shaken my head at silly, unforced turnovers, I would say 50% of those are unforced.

But then there's that "gray" area where one could say that unforced TOs were actually forced due to the defensive pressure, momentum, or some type of psychological aspect.

So WVU with their 10.9 steals per game at least averages 10.9 forced turnovers each time they face an opponent. But that's an average - one game they could have 13, and the next 4. 10.9 doesn't mean that they get at least 10.9 every game. And when facing a team that doesn't turn the ball over to steals much (UK is one), will they really get 10.9 against us, and of our total turnovers, how many will realistically be due to WVU's pressure and steals?

It's going to be interesting, but I still think we take this WVU team to the woodshed. They are better than Cincinnati, so I'd be perfectly happy with a 5-12 pt win. However, the Cats have yet to have what we would all call a "good" game in this tournament, so I feel they're due.