Vanderbilt Commodores
Head Coach: Kevin Stallings (16 seasons 303-198 .605)
Overall Record: 11-6
Conference: 1-3
Road Games: 1-3
Schedule
Nov. 16 - - Trevecca W, 83-56 1-0
Nov. 20 - - Lipscomb W, 72-62 2-0
Nov. 23 - - Tenn. State W, 78-46 3-0
Nov. 25 - - Norfolk St. W, 63-53 4-0
Nov. 28 - -x Rutgers L, 65-68 4-1
Nov. 29 - - x LaSalle W, 68-55 5-1
Dec. 4 - - Baylor L, 63-66 5-2
Dec. 13 - - Purdue W, 81-71 6-2
Dec. 16 - - W. Carolina W, 99-79 7-2
Dec. 20 - - Georgia Tech L, 60-65 7-3
Dec. 22 - - Penn W, 79-50 8-3
Dec. 31 - - Saint Louis W, 70-55 9-3
Jan. 3 - - Yale W, 79-74 (2OT) 10-3
Jan. 6 - - Auburn* W, 64-52 11-3, 1-0
Jan. 10 - #23 Arkansas* L, 70-82 11-4, 1-1
Jan. 14 - - Georgia* L, 67-70 11-5, 1-2
Jan. 17 - - Miss. St.* L, 54-57 11-6, 1-3
x = Neutral
*= conference
Probable Starters
3 Luke Kornet F 7-0 240 So. 8.6ppg, 4.2reb, 1.2blocks
30 Damian Jones C 6-10 250 So. 16.0ppg, 7.2reb, 1.1ast, 1.7blocks
11 Jeff Roberson F 6-6 206 Fr. 4.4ppg, 3.3reb, 1.0ast,
4 Wade Baldwin IV G 6-3 195 Fr. 6.9ppg, 3.5reb, 4.4ast, 1.4steals
13 Riley LaChance G 6-2 194 Fr. 13.3ppg, 3.2reb, 2.5ast
Bench
35 James Siakam F 6-7 225 R-Sr. 9.3ppg, 5.7reb
5 Matthew Fisher-Davis G 6-5 173 Fr. 6.1ppg, 2.1reb
0 Shelton Mitchell G 6-3 186 Fr. 5.2ppg, 2.7reb, 4.2ast
40 Josh Henderson C 6-11 240 R-Sr. 2.5ppg, 1.6reb
Vandy Team Stats
Category Overall (SEC only)
Record 11-6 (1-3)
Scoring Offense 71.5 (63.8)
Scoring Defense 62.4 (65.2)
Scoring Margin +9.1 (-1.5)
FG% .488 (.436)
FG% Defense .392 (.411)
3FG% .376 (.324)
3FG% Defense .317 (.391)
Free Throw % .717 (.707)
Rebounding 35.7 (34.5)
Rebounding Margin +4.5 (+2.5)
Turnovers/game 13.8 (14.8)
Steals 4.5 (4.3)
Blocks 4.6 (3.8)
Analysis
When figuring the starting line-up, it's a bit of a crap shoot with Vandy this season. There are 9 different players who have started a game for the Dores. The most likely other potential starters would be James Siakim in place of Luke Kornet or possibly Shelton Mitchell at one of the guard spots. Most likely, though, they'll start Kornet for his size in the post. If they do this, however, it makes them a bit thin in terms of post depth and it will likely force Josh Henderson into more action than Stallings might prefer. Still, it seems more likely to me this way since someone has to guard Towns and Johnson, and there is little hope that Siakim can fill that bill.
When it comes to Vandy, it all begins with their 6-10 250 So forward/center Damian Jones. He leads the teams in points, rebounds, blocked shots, and FG%. He's becoming a solid player and is being looked at by pro scouts as a possible first round pick this June. His main trouble tonight is that he's being guarded by a guy who can move better, leap higher, and has even more experience in Cauley Stein. If Willie can shut down Jones without any help, Vandy is in huge trouble. Jones is not alone in the post in regard to production, though. His frontcourt mate who likely gets the start tonight versus UK is 7-footer Luke Kornet. Together, these 2 form the second tallest frontcourt duo in the league, behind UK's WCS and Towns. It makes for an interesting match-up, on paper at least. Kornet isn't your typical big man, though, as he's also one of Vandy's best perimeter shooters. He has made 23-56 for 41% on the season. 6-6 Jeff Roberson and 6-7 James Siakam will likely rotate at the 3 spot tonight for Vandy (Siakam will get time at the 4 too). Both are athletic guys who have been improving. Both are good rebounders and slashers. Both rarely shoot a 3 but do their damage in the lane, off drives and offensive boards.
In the backcourt, Vandy relies on 4 freshmen. Riley LaChance is the guy who gets the headlines because of his scoring ability. He's second on the team in scoring at 13.3 ppg. He shoots 40.2% from 3 and 85% from the line. He doesn't look likehe'd be a tremendous threat, but our guys can't give him space or he will knock down the 3. He's not great at creating his own shot, but give him room and he'll burn you. Wade Baldwin is the guy who runs the team. He leads the Commodores in assists and has an excellent a/to ratio of 2.5/1. The guy who comes off the bench to give him a breather (and plays beside him at times as well) is Shelton Mitchell. He is just behind Baldwin in assists on the season but turns it over a bit more, which is why he doesn't start. Neither of these guys are tremendous shooters/scorers, but they are both good facilitators.
As a team, there are 2 big stats that jump out at me that could be trouble for Vandy. #1 They are rated #250 in the nation at preventing offensive rebounds. Bear in mind, UK is #1 at offensive rebounding, grabbing almost 45% of their missed shots. Kentucky could shoot 30% on first shots and still win by 25. #2 Vandy turns the ball over 14 times per game on average and are rated #275 in the nation at protecting the ball, turning the ball over on over 21% of its possessions. Meanwhile, UK is #14 in the nation in forcing turnovers, causing a to on 24.1% of opponents' possessions. These do not bode well for the Commodores.
There are many reasons to like Vandy this season, I must say. They have one of the best big men in the league. They have lots of young guys who appear to have a bright future. They have a better fg% than anyone in the league, at 48.8%. (I should note that in league games that fg% is down to 41.1%. They can shoot the 3 very well and that will keep them in a bunch of games. They have size and they have shooters. They haven't really been blown out by anyone this season. They are getting better. There is much to like.
But when you look at their schedule, you'll see that Vandy has played a very weak schedule, at least on the top end. What I mean is that the teams they've played aren't all terrible but none are very good, either. It looks good on paper- Baylor, Purdue, Ga Tech, and St Louis. Those teams are usually decent. But Baylor is the only top 50 team they played in the nonconference this year. And they still have 6 losses. The best team Vandy has played to this point is Georgia. They got them in Memorial and lost by only 3. They also played Arkansas in Fayetteville and lost by 12. And then they went to Miss St and got beat by one of the worst teams in the league. If you look closely, it's clear Vandy struggles with teams that are athletic and very quick, and the SEC is filled with those.
I think at Memorial Vandy might be able to hang with UK for a while, if the Cats were cold from the floor and the Commodores were hitting the three. But this Vandy team has a lot of youth and they have struggled away from home. I'm sure they were looking ahead to UK when they lost to Miss St, but their confidence must be at a season low right now. If the Cats come out and punch them in the mouth tonight, they might curl up in the fetal position. At the same time, though, they have some weapons and, if our guys aren't playing the stifling defense they've played the last 2 games, the Commodores can shoot well enough to keep it interesting. In the end, though, I just don't see how Vandy stays in it for long. It could get ugly. Kentucky 75 Vandy 51
Head Coach: Kevin Stallings (16 seasons 303-198 .605)
Overall Record: 11-6
Conference: 1-3
Road Games: 1-3
Schedule
Nov. 16 - - Trevecca W, 83-56 1-0
Nov. 20 - - Lipscomb W, 72-62 2-0
Nov. 23 - - Tenn. State W, 78-46 3-0
Nov. 25 - - Norfolk St. W, 63-53 4-0
Nov. 28 - -x Rutgers L, 65-68 4-1
Nov. 29 - - x LaSalle W, 68-55 5-1
Dec. 4 - - Baylor L, 63-66 5-2
Dec. 13 - - Purdue W, 81-71 6-2
Dec. 16 - - W. Carolina W, 99-79 7-2
Dec. 20 - - Georgia Tech L, 60-65 7-3
Dec. 22 - - Penn W, 79-50 8-3
Dec. 31 - - Saint Louis W, 70-55 9-3
Jan. 3 - - Yale W, 79-74 (2OT) 10-3
Jan. 6 - - Auburn* W, 64-52 11-3, 1-0
Jan. 10 - #23 Arkansas* L, 70-82 11-4, 1-1
Jan. 14 - - Georgia* L, 67-70 11-5, 1-2
Jan. 17 - - Miss. St.* L, 54-57 11-6, 1-3
x = Neutral
*= conference
Probable Starters
3 Luke Kornet F 7-0 240 So. 8.6ppg, 4.2reb, 1.2blocks
30 Damian Jones C 6-10 250 So. 16.0ppg, 7.2reb, 1.1ast, 1.7blocks
11 Jeff Roberson F 6-6 206 Fr. 4.4ppg, 3.3reb, 1.0ast,
4 Wade Baldwin IV G 6-3 195 Fr. 6.9ppg, 3.5reb, 4.4ast, 1.4steals
13 Riley LaChance G 6-2 194 Fr. 13.3ppg, 3.2reb, 2.5ast
Bench
35 James Siakam F 6-7 225 R-Sr. 9.3ppg, 5.7reb
5 Matthew Fisher-Davis G 6-5 173 Fr. 6.1ppg, 2.1reb
0 Shelton Mitchell G 6-3 186 Fr. 5.2ppg, 2.7reb, 4.2ast
40 Josh Henderson C 6-11 240 R-Sr. 2.5ppg, 1.6reb
Vandy Team Stats
Category Overall (SEC only)
Record 11-6 (1-3)
Scoring Offense 71.5 (63.8)
Scoring Defense 62.4 (65.2)
Scoring Margin +9.1 (-1.5)
FG% .488 (.436)
FG% Defense .392 (.411)
3FG% .376 (.324)
3FG% Defense .317 (.391)
Free Throw % .717 (.707)
Rebounding 35.7 (34.5)
Rebounding Margin +4.5 (+2.5)
Turnovers/game 13.8 (14.8)
Steals 4.5 (4.3)
Blocks 4.6 (3.8)
Analysis
When figuring the starting line-up, it's a bit of a crap shoot with Vandy this season. There are 9 different players who have started a game for the Dores. The most likely other potential starters would be James Siakim in place of Luke Kornet or possibly Shelton Mitchell at one of the guard spots. Most likely, though, they'll start Kornet for his size in the post. If they do this, however, it makes them a bit thin in terms of post depth and it will likely force Josh Henderson into more action than Stallings might prefer. Still, it seems more likely to me this way since someone has to guard Towns and Johnson, and there is little hope that Siakim can fill that bill.
When it comes to Vandy, it all begins with their 6-10 250 So forward/center Damian Jones. He leads the teams in points, rebounds, blocked shots, and FG%. He's becoming a solid player and is being looked at by pro scouts as a possible first round pick this June. His main trouble tonight is that he's being guarded by a guy who can move better, leap higher, and has even more experience in Cauley Stein. If Willie can shut down Jones without any help, Vandy is in huge trouble. Jones is not alone in the post in regard to production, though. His frontcourt mate who likely gets the start tonight versus UK is 7-footer Luke Kornet. Together, these 2 form the second tallest frontcourt duo in the league, behind UK's WCS and Towns. It makes for an interesting match-up, on paper at least. Kornet isn't your typical big man, though, as he's also one of Vandy's best perimeter shooters. He has made 23-56 for 41% on the season. 6-6 Jeff Roberson and 6-7 James Siakam will likely rotate at the 3 spot tonight for Vandy (Siakam will get time at the 4 too). Both are athletic guys who have been improving. Both are good rebounders and slashers. Both rarely shoot a 3 but do their damage in the lane, off drives and offensive boards.
In the backcourt, Vandy relies on 4 freshmen. Riley LaChance is the guy who gets the headlines because of his scoring ability. He's second on the team in scoring at 13.3 ppg. He shoots 40.2% from 3 and 85% from the line. He doesn't look likehe'd be a tremendous threat, but our guys can't give him space or he will knock down the 3. He's not great at creating his own shot, but give him room and he'll burn you. Wade Baldwin is the guy who runs the team. He leads the Commodores in assists and has an excellent a/to ratio of 2.5/1. The guy who comes off the bench to give him a breather (and plays beside him at times as well) is Shelton Mitchell. He is just behind Baldwin in assists on the season but turns it over a bit more, which is why he doesn't start. Neither of these guys are tremendous shooters/scorers, but they are both good facilitators.
As a team, there are 2 big stats that jump out at me that could be trouble for Vandy. #1 They are rated #250 in the nation at preventing offensive rebounds. Bear in mind, UK is #1 at offensive rebounding, grabbing almost 45% of their missed shots. Kentucky could shoot 30% on first shots and still win by 25. #2 Vandy turns the ball over 14 times per game on average and are rated #275 in the nation at protecting the ball, turning the ball over on over 21% of its possessions. Meanwhile, UK is #14 in the nation in forcing turnovers, causing a to on 24.1% of opponents' possessions. These do not bode well for the Commodores.
There are many reasons to like Vandy this season, I must say. They have one of the best big men in the league. They have lots of young guys who appear to have a bright future. They have a better fg% than anyone in the league, at 48.8%. (I should note that in league games that fg% is down to 41.1%. They can shoot the 3 very well and that will keep them in a bunch of games. They have size and they have shooters. They haven't really been blown out by anyone this season. They are getting better. There is much to like.
But when you look at their schedule, you'll see that Vandy has played a very weak schedule, at least on the top end. What I mean is that the teams they've played aren't all terrible but none are very good, either. It looks good on paper- Baylor, Purdue, Ga Tech, and St Louis. Those teams are usually decent. But Baylor is the only top 50 team they played in the nonconference this year. And they still have 6 losses. The best team Vandy has played to this point is Georgia. They got them in Memorial and lost by only 3. They also played Arkansas in Fayetteville and lost by 12. And then they went to Miss St and got beat by one of the worst teams in the league. If you look closely, it's clear Vandy struggles with teams that are athletic and very quick, and the SEC is filled with those.
I think at Memorial Vandy might be able to hang with UK for a while, if the Cats were cold from the floor and the Commodores were hitting the three. But this Vandy team has a lot of youth and they have struggled away from home. I'm sure they were looking ahead to UK when they lost to Miss St, but their confidence must be at a season low right now. If the Cats come out and punch them in the mouth tonight, they might curl up in the fetal position. At the same time, though, they have some weapons and, if our guys aren't playing the stifling defense they've played the last 2 games, the Commodores can shoot well enough to keep it interesting. In the end, though, I just don't see how Vandy stays in it for long. It could get ugly. Kentucky 75 Vandy 51
