Scouting Texas Christian

[Comebakatz3]

We are still a little less than a month out from opening day of Kentucky baseball 2020, but I am a little eager, so I decided to take some time to do a little write-up about our first opponent. The Kentucky baseball team will head to warmer weather for Valentine's Day where they will face a weekend slate against Texas Christian in Fort Worth, Texas at Lupton Stadium. The home of the Horned Frogs sits 4,500 fans and goes 330 to left and right, 400 to straight away center, and the gaps are 389 in left-center and 382 in right-center. The Cats will play on a classic grass/dirt surface with game one kicking off at 7:30 Eastern, game 2 at 3pm, and Sunday's game 3 at 1:30pm. I am going to break this down in several posts...

TCU is just 3 years removed (2017) from playing in the College World Series in a season they had 50 wins. However, in 2019 the Horned Frogs couldn't recreate that type of magic and finished the year 34-28 (11-13). Their record was still good enough to get them into the NCAA tournament as a 2 seed where they headed to Fayetteville where they came up short against the Razorbacks in both of their meetings.

The most important people that return for Texas Christian is the coaching staff. Jim Schlossnagle is one of the great ones and he returns to TCU for his 17th season with the team. He is a two time national coach of the year 2010 and 2016 and he has taken TCU to the College World Series 5 times, with 4 of those happening from '14 to '17. Bill Mossiello joined the staff in 2013 and runs their offense and will coach third base. Mossiello was at Tennessee prior to leaving the Volunteer state for the Lone Star state. A signature of Mossiello's offenses is stolen bases, which UK will have to be ready for. Kirk Saarlos also returns as the pitching coach and recruiting coordinator, which are positions he has held since 2012 and 2013 respectively. He was named National Assistant Coach of the Year in 2016 by D1baseball.

 

[Comebakatz3]

One thing that first stands out about the 2020 TCU team is that they lost a whole lot on offense. In fact, they had 9 guys drafted on their team overall in 2019. They will return 4 of their 9 starters in 2020. However, those returning are all extremely experienced with 3 of them being redshirt seniors and the fourth a senior. That being the case, there will be a lot of guesses from me on who might fill the gaps.

1B - Conner Shepherd - The redshirt senior hit .297 a year ago and split time between first and third. He had 9 doubles, 2 triples and 6 home runs to go with 28 walks and 54 strikeouts. He also stole 5 of 6 bags. He hits lefty and throws righty.

2B - Austin Henry - The speedy Henry played every game last year and hit .288 with 10 doubles a triple and 7 home runs. He had 43 RBIs to go with 31 walks and 48 strikeouts as well as 11 steals on 13 attempts. He will hit and throw right.

RF - Hunter Wolfe - Wolfe was a bit of a utility player a year ago as as he made 19 starts in right, 12 at DH and 12 at short stop. He has a great combination of speed and power as he went .301 a year ago with 8 doubles, 2 triples, and 7 home runs. He walked 31 times and struck out 45 while swiping 12 of 14 bags. This year he is listed as an OF on the roster, which is why I expect him to be at RF for 2020.

C - Zach Humphreys - The senior catcher will throw and hit from the right side. In 19 he hit .277 with 10 doubles, 1 triple, and 3 home runs to go with 11 walks and 23 strikeouts.

3B - Bobby Goodloe - Sophomore Goodloe made 30 starts a year ago with 17 of those coming at 3rd. I expect he may take over that role this year after hitting .279 in 111 at bats with 5 doubles and a triple a year ago. He also had 17 walks to just 19 strikeouts.

CF - Porter Brown - This is just a guess, but he could also be in left. Brown started all 16 games as a freshman at DH and LF before his season was cut short due to an injury. He was granted a medical redshirt in 2019, so he will be listed as a RS freshman. He hit a rather impressive .279 as a freshman with 3 doubles, 10 walks and 15 strikeouts. He stole 7 of 8 bags.

It is at this point that I have to begin to do a lot more guessing because no other players on offense saw action for TCU a year ago.

LF - Assuming that the other two guys take CF and RF, this leaves TCU with 4 guys on the roster listed at OF. Three of those guys are JUCO players with one of them being a freshman. Going by bios and their lengths and information, my guess is that Phillip Sikes gets the nod as the LF in 2020. Sikes is a JUCO Junior who was an Honorable Mention All American a year ago at Pima CC. He hit .369 with 7 home runs a year ago and was drafted in the 33rd round.

SS - There are also a lot of options here, but I really have no idea who will start here. None of the options look to stand out. Gene Wood looks to be a grad transfer from Alabama, but he was rather lightly used by the Crimson Tide and he largely saw time in CF and not in the infield. He does rock a mean mustache though (look it up). Tommy Sacco and Gray Rodgers both come to TCU by way of JUCO, but neither of them really have anything on their resume that stands out. Sacco did play for the JUCO Team USA, but I am not sure if that really makes him stand out. Mason Speaker and Rhett Maynard are both freshmen possibilities. Mason is a jack of all trades listed as a C/INF/RF. It is possible that he is shuffled around and maybe plays 1st, moving Shepherd to third and Goodloe to short? Maynard has a resume with a lot of stuff on it, but none of it stands out as being knock you on your seat impressive, mostly regional accolades.

Overall, I don't think that the Horned Frogs are going to wow us with a ton of power. They had 65 homes runs a year ago compared to UK having 56. They will likely hit for a high average (.294 a year ago) and will be active on the bases. They struck out about 21 percent of the time a year ago and only walked about 14 percent of the time. So, they will be looking to make the defense work by putting the ball into play.

Edit to add: Kurtis Byrne is the top prospects for TCU in 2019. Byrne is a catcher from Missouri and is listed as the 5th best catcher in the country and the 59th best prospect overall. Home team St. Louis Cardinals took him in the 38th round. He has a strong bat and is a big arm behind he plate. I am not sure that he will play defense in 2020, but it would not surprise me to see him behind the dish some and also at DH. I don't think TCU can afford to sit a top 60 prospect. If his defense gets more polished I imagine that he will see more time behind the plate, but that is hard to say and I imagine that UK likely sees him more at the plate.

 

[Comebakatz3]

TCU will also have to replace some of the key cogs from 2019's pitching staff. Nick Lodolo was their lefty ace a year ago, but he went 7th overall to the Reds. Brandon Williamson, another lefty, also went on day 1 of the MLB draft. Both of those guys had 16 starts a year ago and pitched a combined 180.1 innings. Jared Janczak also had 10 starts. He graduated in 19.

lt is hard to predict who will pitch when against us, but I have to believe that TCU may lead off with experience. Charles King (fun name) started 6 games and had 9 appearances in Big 12 play a year ago. He is a right handed senior who was 6-2 a year ago with a 3.36 ERA. He struck out 53 in 85.2 innings. In league play he threw 50 innings with a 3.42 ERA, 31 strikeouts, and just 9 walks. Opponents hit fairly well against him at .263 and he did give up 9 doubles a triple and 6 home runs. He was one of only two Horned Frogs to throw a complete game and he had 2 of them. He also worked out of the bullpen quite a bit having 21 appearances a year ago.

After that, it is almost anyone's guess who will see time on the mound on Valentine's weekend. Haylen Green is a relatively short (5'11) senior lefty who started in 3 games a year ago. However, it is hard to see the senior taking an expanded role as a starter in 2020. He had just one appearance with over 4 innings. Opponents hit .267 against him and he had a 4.05 ERA. Somewhat surprisingly he was 5-1 on the year

No one else returning has a start under their belt. So, the possible weekend starters are:

Russell Smith - Lefty redshirt sophomore sat out 2019 due to injuries, but he started 11 games and made 12 appearances in 2018 where he posted a 3.35 ERA and opponents hit .258 against him. Kid is a monster at 6'9 and 235 pounds. Have a hard time believing that he won't be starting if healthy.

Harrison Beethe - Righty is a juco transfer with some potential. He was injured in 2019 so he only had 8 innings of work, but he was still drafted in the 39th round of the draft and was listed as the 4th best prospect in Iowa. Not sure if he'll be ready to go on opening weekend, but he has potential.

Grant Miller - A strong lefty JUCO transfer was an NJCAA Honorable Mention All-American as a freshman and

John Kodros - Lefty transfer from LSU played in 15 games for LSU as a freshman in 2018 before transferring and sitting out a year ago. He didn't start any games for LSU, but I don't think that means he is incapable of doing so. Kid seems to have some swing and miss stuff with 7 strikeouts in just 9.2 innings of work.

Drew Hill - Righty who played at Utah State and picked up 2 starts with 28 innings pitched before transferring to a JUCO for 2019. He was ranked as the 12th best prospect in Arizona a year ago. He has starter potential and had a 2.73 ERA a year ago, but I think he is more likely a long relief guy.

Johnny Ray - Originally played for Illinois State, but did not play in 2018 before transferring to a JUCO where he was largely injured and only pitched 8 innings in 2019. Despite that he seems like a decent prospect. Not sure he will be ready to jump into a weekend role though.

Caleb Sloan - Sophomore righty is another kid that sat out a year ago due to injuries. He had 20 appearance (3rd on team) in 2018 and had a 4.60 ERA over 31.1 innings. It is possible that, if healthy, he sees an expanded role.

Riley Cornelio - Freshman righty comes from Colorado as the no 1 draft prospect in the state of Colorado. He was a PG and Gatorade POTY from the state and earned PG and Collegiate Baseball All-American honors. He is 6'3 195 and PG had him listed as the 15th best righty in the country. His PG profile states that his FB topped out at 93 and he also features a slurve/curveball. That profile was from 2018, so things may have even improved a bit. I would say that he's a heavy favorite for a weekend spot.

Nolan Hudi - Lefty freshman was ranked the 64th best lefty coming out of high school. He has a velo of 89 on his fast ball. Not sure what else he comes with, but Collegiate Baseball named him an All American a year ago.

Jacob Meador - A freshman righty came in after being drafted in the 31st round by the Mariners. PG ranks him as the 46th best righty in the country. He had 179 strikeouts a year ago, leading Texas. PG has his fastball topping out at 93 with a curveball and a developing changeup. Kid has a high leg kick apparently, and is slow to the plate from the stretch, so UK could steal on him if we see him. He is a relatively small pitcher (5'11), but that doesn't necessarily mean he cannot see plenty of time on the mound.


Summary - If I had to guess:
Friday - Charles King
Saturday - Riley Cornelio
Sunday - Russell Smith

Closer: I think you may see the same guy as last year stay as the closer in 2019. Righty Marcelo Perez had a bit of strange year in 2019 as a freshman. He held opponents scoreless in 10 of 17 appearances, picked up 5 saves, and allowed just 1 of 7 inherited runners to score. Despite that, he had a 4.30 ERA in 23 innings of work. He gave up 11 earned runs with just 8 walks, and 28 strikeouts. The long ball cursed him with 4 given up. Had 6 hitless appearances, but also had some bad ones, especially his last three where he gave up 11 runs, 7 earned. So, for the most part he was fairly solid in most of his outings, but it kind of fell apart in the last three. Still, I say he finds himself as closer again.

Big time bullpen arm: Augie Mihlbauer is a lefty sophomore who had the lowest ERA (2.35) on the team a year ago with 23 innings pitched in 28 appearances. He gave up just 6 earned runes while striking out 29 and walking 15. A year ago he was mostly a spot guy with most of his outings lasting no more than 2 innings. His longest was the last against Arkansas in the regional where he went 3.1 in relief. I expect he will be an inning eater again.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I think this TCU team may take a step back from a year ago. They have a ton of question marks and I am not sure that I see a ton of guys who will step in and replace what they lost. UK will certainly be catching them at a good time given that they will have a lot of newcomers. It is certainly a series that UK could win, but we have a lot of holes ourselves, especially on the mound.

 

[Comebakatz3]

This may have been a bad idea... now I am even more eager for the season.

 

[sluggercatfan]

I think this TCU team may take a step back from a year ago. They have a ton of question marks and I am not sure that I see a ton of guys who will step in and replace what they lost. UK will certainly be catching them at a good time given that they will have a lot of newcomers. It is certainly a series that UK could win, but we have a lot of holes ourselves, especially on the mound.

Holes or canyons for UK...hopefully, maybe I'm being pessimistic for no reason, but I see this being a very long season .

 

[Comebakatz3]

Holes or canyons for UK...hopefully, I'm be pessimistic for no reason, but I see this being a very long season .

Lot of question marks for us. I think hitting can improve a lot. I think guys like Hill and TJ can have much better years for average. A few hits stepping up can boost the average a lot.

Pitching is the scary thing. I just don't see anyone on the roster that I know that I can count on. Still, last time I had this concern, Hjelle became an All SEC pitcher. So, I'm holding out hope.

 

[Jeff12wb]

My Lord, it is nice to see these kinds of threads pop up again!

Yet another year with some extremely tough tests in the first month with TCU as an opener and then Vandy-Florida to open up SEC play in March.

We will find out early on the philosophy and fight of this team.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Listened to NM tonight and he talked about how much time has been spent on pitching in the off season.

 

[dtjr]

I think we will struggle at the start of the year with pitching as well as offense. I hope we make big strides throughout the season to make it interesting in the SEC Tournament.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I think we will struggle at the start of the year with pitching as well as offense. I hope we make big strides throughout the season to make it interesting in the SEC Tournament.

I just don't know that we have anyone that is going to give us consistent and quality outings on the weekends. We have a lot of possible guys (Marsh, Hazelwood, Ramsey, Cottongame, Harper, Lockhart, and Rigby) that have experience and could be the ones, but none have proven it. We have some freshmen, but none, that I know of, are locks to be weekend starters. Wibbels is ranked highest I believe, and he sat out a lot of the fall. Jordan was one I hoped would take major strides, but I don't believe he leaves UK basketball until after that season ends, which is a bad sign. Overall, there is talent on the team, but we will see if it can come together.

 

[Tskware]

Listened to NM tonight and he talked about how much time has been spent on pitching in the off season.

I hope so, staff as a whole was just brutal to watch in 2019.

 

[dtjr]

I just don't know that we have anyone that is going to give us consistent and quality outings on the weekends. We have a lot of possible guys (Marsh, Hazelwood, Ramsey, Cottongame, Harper, Lockhart, and Rigby) that have experience and could be the ones, but none have proven it. We have some freshmen, but none, that I know of, are locks to be weekend starters. Wibbels is ranked highest I believe, and he sat out a lot of the fall. Jordan was one I hoped would take major strides, but I don't believe he leaves UK basketball until after that season ends, which is a bad sign. Overall, there is talent on the team, but we will see if it can come together.

Jordan was a major surprise to me joining the basketball team after sitting and rehabbing. He could have worked all winter and possibly been a factor this year. I guess now he won't be really baseball ready until end of April unless he leaves basketball.

I hope our offense is keeps us in games at the start of the year but typically pitching is ahead of offense.

Uh oh......

 

[Comebakatz3]

Jordan was a major surprise to me joining the basketball team after sitting and rehabbing. He could have worked all winter and possibly been a factor this year. I guess now he won't be really baseball ready until end of April unless he leaves basketball.

I hope our offense is keeps us in games at the start of the year but typically pitching is ahead of offense.

Uh oh......

I don't think he's leaving basketball. He'll stick with it. If he were leaving it, he'd probably already be off the bench and on the diamond. I didn't pay attention to it last night but I'm pretty positive he's still with the basketball team.

 

[sluggercatfan]

I don't think he's leaving basketball. He'll stick with it. If he were leaving it, he'd probably already be off the bench and on the diamond. I didn't pay attention to it last night but I'm pretty positive he's still with the basketball team.

This is strange , at least to me. What could be his reasoning behind this?

 

[Comebakatz3]

This is strange , at least to me. What could be his reasoning behind this?

This is pure speculation:

I think it could be an indication that he wasn't going to be a major factor for the baseball team this year as it is. I don't know this for sure, but just throwing it out there as a possibility, and again, it is just entirely speculation.

It could also just be that he saw a fun opportunity and wanted to take it, and is now enjoying it and embracing it. I am sure he is liking that he gets some advanced luxuries over what the baseball team gets.

There are some other things that this could be a sign of, but again, all of it is really just speculating and jumping to possible conclusions without any true evidence.

 

[CB3UK]

Mere weeks away at this point. Man am I ready for baseball season to get going again.

 

[sluggercatfan]

This is pure speculation:

I think it could be an indication that he wasn't going to be a major factor for the baseball team this year as it is. I don't know this for sure, but just throwing it out there as a possibility, and again, it is just entirely speculation.

It could also just be that he saw a fun opportunity and wanted to take it, and is now enjoying it and embracing it. I am sure he is liking that he gets some advanced luxuries over what the baseball team gets.

There are some other things that this could be a sign of, but again, all of it is really just speculating and jumping to possible conclusions without any true evidence.

IF, If he stays with the team he will miss at least 20+ games before he joins the bb team I guess. We will know early by his participation in practice and bb workouts. He is only a sophmore so something's got to give soon.

 

[Comebakatz3]

IF, If he stays with the team he will miss at least 20+ games before he joins the bb team I guess. We will know early by his participation in practice and bb workouts. He is only a sophmore so something's got to give soon.

I believe he is going to stay with the basketball team and will still be on the baseball team as well. While you are right, he is just a sophomore, he has been at UK for 3 years and is draft eligible. So, if he were to turn things around after his injuries, he could go in the draft this year. Which kind of adds to the strange effect of him not focusing it all on baseball.

 

[cats1068]

This is pure speculation:

I think it could be an indication that he wasn't going to be a major factor for the baseball team this year as it is. I don't know this for sure, but just throwing it out there as a possibility, and again, it is just entirely speculation.

It could also just be that he saw a fun opportunity and wanted to take it, and is now enjoying it and embracing it. I am sure he is liking that he gets some advanced luxuries over what the baseball team gets.

There are some other things that this could be a sign of, but again, all of it is really just speculating and jumping to possible conclusions without any true evidence.

Maybe it’s just a chance of a lifetime to play basketball for UK. He’s a KY kid and it’s probably a dream come true. The baseball thing will happen when it’s time. As a person who is from KY, I think it’s pretty cool.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Maybe it’s just a chance of a lifetime to play basketball for UK. He’s a KY kid and it’s probably a dream come true. The baseball thing will happen when it’s time. As a person who is from KY, I think it’s pretty cool.

I agree. Would be very cool. Don't blame him at all.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Almost there ladies and gentlemen. Just a few more sleeps and we will be basking (or wallowing) in college baseball. My excitement is building, so I took to D1 Baseball to check out what they had to say about our first opponent.

TCU is projected by Kendall Rogers and crew to finish 11-13 in conference and 34-28 overall, which would put them in 5th. They do project that they will make the NCAA tournament.

They have a top prospects list with the top 50 players in the league for the 2020 draft. TCU has 5 different pitchers listed in the top 20 of that list, with all but one being righties. Their first player in the field, catcher Zach Humphreys, checks in at number 40, so that might indicate how they will win games.

They also have a top 50 of the 2021 draft and RHP Riley Cornelio tops that list.

With that being said, the pitching staff will be very deep. Johnny Ray should start game 1 against UK with Jacob Meador (freshman righty) and Marcelo Perez (sophomore righty) will apparently start games two and three. Ray hits 93-97 on the gun and has 4 pitches he can throw for strikes. Meador is only 5'11 170, but he throws in the high 80s to low 90s and goes right at hitters. Perez is apparently moving away from closing to be a starter. He throws 91-94 and throws a lot of strikes to go along with an 87 mph changeup and a slider that goes around the low 80s. - This is quite a bit different than my projections above. lol

Augie Mihlbauer is a guy they would rely, but he had his bursa removed and will be out in 2020.

I probably did pretty bad with my guesses on the position players. Sacco and Sikes are two names to watch for. Sacco is apparently going to man short stop while Sikes will be in the outfield. Sounds like Gray Rodgers might find his home at third base. Gene Wood seems like he could factor in somewhere.

All in all, it seems that D1 Baseball is pretty high on the TCU pitching, but the reports have to be taken with a grain of salt. I think they are always slanted very positively and don't go very far in terms of criticism.