Ole Miss Rebels
Head Coach: Andy Kennedy [221-128 (.633) in 11th season at Ole Miss]
Record: 9-3 (7-1 at home)
Schedule
11/11/16 UT MARTIN W 86-83
11/14/16 UMASS W 90-88
11/18/16 vs Oral Roberts Wot 95-88
11/20/16 vs Saint Joseph's W 81-68
11/21/16 vs Creighton L 77-86
11/24/16 MONTANA W 86-81
11/30/16 MIDDLE TENNESSEE L 62-77
12/03/16 MEMPHIS W 85-77
12/11/16 at Virginia Tech L 75-80
12/15/16 MURRAY STATE W 78-73
12/19/16 BRADLEY W 66-49
12/22/16 SOUTH ALABAMA W 92-58
Game Info
12/29/16 Kentucky at Ole Miss, Oxford, MS- The Pavilion (9500), 8:00 p.m. EST, TV: ESPN2
Probable Starters
F #11 Sebastian Saiz 6-9 240 Sr, 15.2pts, 12.1reb, 1.5blks, .333 3fg (6-8)
F #50 Justas Furmanavicius 6-7 210 Jr, 5.3pts, 5.4reb, 1.1ast, .250 3fg (JC transfer)
G #14 Rasheed Brooks 6-5 203 Sr, 8.7pts, 3.5reb, 2.3ast, .358 3fg
G #1 Deandre Burnett 6-2 192 Jr, 19.2pts, 2.3reb, 2.8ast, 3.3tos, .387 3fg (Miami transfer)
G #2 Cullen Neal 6-4 191 Jr, 12.3pts, 2.0reb, 3.7ast, .431 3fg (New Mexico transfer)
Key Reserves
G #3 Terence Davis 6-4 201 So, 12.8pts, 5.5reb, 1.2ast, 1.3stls*, .326 3fg
F #5 Marcanvis Hymon 6-7 220 Jr, 4.1pts, 4.3reb, no 3pt threat
G #4 Breein Tyree 6-2 192 Fr, 2.1pts, 1.7ast, .333 3fg
G #0 Donte Fitzpatrick-Dorsey 6-4 191 So, 1.5pts, 1.6reb, no 3pt threat
Team Stats
Points per game 81.1
Points allowed 75.7
Scoring margin +5.4
Field goal pct .434
FG% allowed .410
3-point FG pct .367
3pt FG% allowed .389
Free throw pct .741
Rebounds per game 42.0
Rebounds allowed 35.4
Rebounding margin +6.6
Assists per game 14.3
Assists allowed 16.0
Turnovers per game 15.1
Turnovers forced 13.4
Turnover margin -1.7
Assist/turnover ratio 1.0
Steals per game 6.8
Blocks per game 6.5
KenPom Analysis
Best Stats
#20 in FT attempt per FG attempt (they get to the line)
#22 in offensive rebounding percentage
#12 in blocked shot percentage
#31 in 2pt FG% defense (allowing only 42.4%)
Worst Stats
#296 in defending 3pt FG (allowing 38.9%)
#240 in turnover % (to’s on 20.3% of possessions)
#210 in 2pt FG% (making only 47.5% on 2s)
#241 in forcing turnovers
Analysis: Mississippi hosts Kentucky in “the Pavilion at Ole Miss” for both teams’ first conference game of the season. Ole Miss enters the game with an overall record of 9-3 (7-1 at home) including a big win over their rival, the Memphis Tigers, though they sandwiched that win with losses to Middle Tennessee and Virginia Tech. That loss the the Hokies was excusable given that it was their first true road game of the season, but the loss to Middle Tennessee 62-77 was embarrassing for multiple reasons: it was a 15pt home loss to a mid-major team in a game where Ole Miss never really threatened, losing 48-19 at half and never recovering.
When I was attempting to determine the most likely starting line-up for this Rebels team, it was very challenging to say the least. Their big man, Sebastian Saiz, the 6-9 240 Sr, is the only guy who has started all 12 games for them this season. The rest has been by committee, pretty much. Ole Miss has 8 other guys who have started at least 2 games this season. One of the reasons they haven’t started their forwards is that they’ve played against a bunch of guard-heavy line-ups. Kentucky won’t be any exception to that, but the Cats do start at least 2 forwards, so I expect to see either Furmanavicious or Hymon to start at the 4 in this game. They have pretty much split the time at that spot this season. I chose the former as the starter because he has a bit more playing time and shoots it better from distance, which may be needed for Ole Miss in this game.
Everything for Ole Miss starts and ends with Saiz Sebastian, and for good reason. He’s a load in the paint and has multiple ways to score on the interior, including jump hooks with either hand, turnaround J, and a step-back jumper as well. He shoots 54% from the field and can even step out and make a 3, where he has connected on 6-18 on the season. He is averaging a double-double, 15.2 points, and 12.1 rebounds. He had 23 and 16 against South Alabama, which is ridiculous! (it should be noted that South Alabama is pure crap, though) The other possible starter at forward is the 6-7 210 junior Lithuanian Justas Furmanavicius (say that 3 times fast). Justus has played only 22 minutes per game this season and hasn’t scored much, though he has some versatility offensively. He may not start this game. We may instead see Marcavius Hymon, another 6-7 forward who has actually started more games for Ole Miss this year than his counterpart. He’s a little more athletic but not quite as skilled. All 3 of these Ole Miss forwards can block some shots, with 18, 19, and 20 blocked shots respectively.
When you begin looking at the Ole Miss backcourt, you quickly conclude that they are very guard heavy. In fact, 4 of their top 5 scorers are guards. They have started 6 different guards in various line-ups this season. Truth be told, with Saiz gobbling up all the rebounds, Ole Miss can afford to play small and quick, which is exactly what Kennedy has been doing. The top scorer in the backcourt is Deandre Burnett, a 6-2 192lb transfer from Miami who has been scoring 19.2 points per game. There have been a couple games he didn’t start this season, but he always gets his minutes and he always scored his points. He has more attempts that anyone else on the team, even though he’s not a great shooter. He’s the guy who can create offense for himself when needed. Burnett’s problem is that he’s a bit turnover prone, averaging more tos than assists on the season. The primary point guard for Ole Miss is Cullen Neal, a 6-4 191lb junior transfer from New Mexico. He’s a guy who will sneak up on you because he doesn’t look like he’d be as skilled as he is (which means he’s a white dude), but I’ve seen him play and he’s been really good. He’s scoring over 12 points per game and dishing out 3.7 assists and has about a 2:1 a/to ratio. He’s a guy who can be really dangerous if he heats up. He shoots 43.1% from 3pt range also, so he’s the guy who makes them go offensively and will present a challenge. The 3rd guy in the backcourt is Rasheed Brooks, a 6-5 203 senior. Brooks is a fairly steady guy who isn’t very flashy but does many things pretty well. He’s got some significant experience in Kennedy’s system, so he knows where to be. He can shoot from 3 at about 36%. He can rebound some. He’s big enough to defend bigger guys. He’s the glue guy for Ole Miss.
From the bench, the fourth guard in the rotation is Terrence Davis, a 6-4 210lb wing guard who is scoring 12.8 points grabbing 5.5 rebounds per game as well. He’s 3rd in scoring and 2nd in rebounding on the team. He has only started 5 games and only plays 22 minutes per game, but he gets his points and rebounds efficiently. He also has trouble with turnovers, along with Burnett, which might be why he’s getting limited minutes. There are 2 other guards we might see from the bench as well, which are Breein Tyree, a 6-2 192lb freshman and Donte Fitzpatrick-Dorsey, a 6-4 191lb sophomore. I doubt we’ll see much of these 2 unless foul trouble becomes an issue for the Rebels, which is highly unlikely in Oxford.
Defensively, Ole Miss plays some different zone packages, including a 1-3-1 trap intended to speed teams up and force open court turnovers leading to easy transition points. They press some full court as well. They will also play some 2-3 zone and some man to man at times. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 2-3 zone quite a bit in this one, unless that 1-3-1 is effective. I expect to see Ole Miss give up some threes in order to keep the ball out of the middle of the lane. They may also play 4 guards at times in that zone, which gets their better scorers on the floor for more minutes.
I think the bigger question for this game is this: how will these Cats bounce back from their loss to Louisville? The answer to that question will go a long way in determining what happens in this game. Ole Miss is not a pushover, especially playing at home and in front of, you guessed it, a sell-out crowd. I think the 1-3-1 zone could have the opposite effect of what it is intended to accomplish. With Fox and Briscoe’s ability to get into the lane, the zone could end up being an offensive spark for the Cats. Ole Miss is active in the zone, but it’s not even close to the kind of intensity we saw from Louisville. What I hope to see is UK driving to the rim and not settling for the jump shots that will most certainly be available here. As I mentioned in the statistical analysis above, Ole Miss gives up a large number of open threes, so those shots will be available. But after several days of Camp Cal, I hope we see guys driving, and I expect we will. Drive the ball, share the ball, 20+ assists, draw fouls and get to the line. That’s what I hope to see. I hope we see an improvement defensively, but I think we may struggle keeping Ole Miss from scoring at home in this hyped environment. KenPom predicts a UK win, 90-77.
Prediction: Kentucky 88 Ole Miss 74
Head Coach: Andy Kennedy [221-128 (.633) in 11th season at Ole Miss]
Record: 9-3 (7-1 at home)
Schedule
11/11/16 UT MARTIN W 86-83
11/14/16 UMASS W 90-88
11/18/16 vs Oral Roberts Wot 95-88
11/20/16 vs Saint Joseph's W 81-68
11/21/16 vs Creighton L 77-86
11/24/16 MONTANA W 86-81
11/30/16 MIDDLE TENNESSEE L 62-77
12/03/16 MEMPHIS W 85-77
12/11/16 at Virginia Tech L 75-80
12/15/16 MURRAY STATE W 78-73
12/19/16 BRADLEY W 66-49
12/22/16 SOUTH ALABAMA W 92-58
Game Info
12/29/16 Kentucky at Ole Miss, Oxford, MS- The Pavilion (9500), 8:00 p.m. EST, TV: ESPN2
Probable Starters
F #11 Sebastian Saiz 6-9 240 Sr, 15.2pts, 12.1reb, 1.5blks, .333 3fg (6-8)
F #50 Justas Furmanavicius 6-7 210 Jr, 5.3pts, 5.4reb, 1.1ast, .250 3fg (JC transfer)
G #14 Rasheed Brooks 6-5 203 Sr, 8.7pts, 3.5reb, 2.3ast, .358 3fg
G #1 Deandre Burnett 6-2 192 Jr, 19.2pts, 2.3reb, 2.8ast, 3.3tos, .387 3fg (Miami transfer)
G #2 Cullen Neal 6-4 191 Jr, 12.3pts, 2.0reb, 3.7ast, .431 3fg (New Mexico transfer)
Key Reserves
G #3 Terence Davis 6-4 201 So, 12.8pts, 5.5reb, 1.2ast, 1.3stls*, .326 3fg
F #5 Marcanvis Hymon 6-7 220 Jr, 4.1pts, 4.3reb, no 3pt threat
G #4 Breein Tyree 6-2 192 Fr, 2.1pts, 1.7ast, .333 3fg
G #0 Donte Fitzpatrick-Dorsey 6-4 191 So, 1.5pts, 1.6reb, no 3pt threat
Team Stats
Points per game 81.1
Points allowed 75.7
Scoring margin +5.4
Field goal pct .434
FG% allowed .410
3-point FG pct .367
3pt FG% allowed .389
Free throw pct .741
Rebounds per game 42.0
Rebounds allowed 35.4
Rebounding margin +6.6
Assists per game 14.3
Assists allowed 16.0
Turnovers per game 15.1
Turnovers forced 13.4
Turnover margin -1.7
Assist/turnover ratio 1.0
Steals per game 6.8
Blocks per game 6.5
KenPom Analysis
Best Stats
#20 in FT attempt per FG attempt (they get to the line)
#22 in offensive rebounding percentage
#12 in blocked shot percentage
#31 in 2pt FG% defense (allowing only 42.4%)
Worst Stats
#296 in defending 3pt FG (allowing 38.9%)
#240 in turnover % (to’s on 20.3% of possessions)
#210 in 2pt FG% (making only 47.5% on 2s)
#241 in forcing turnovers
Analysis: Mississippi hosts Kentucky in “the Pavilion at Ole Miss” for both teams’ first conference game of the season. Ole Miss enters the game with an overall record of 9-3 (7-1 at home) including a big win over their rival, the Memphis Tigers, though they sandwiched that win with losses to Middle Tennessee and Virginia Tech. That loss the the Hokies was excusable given that it was their first true road game of the season, but the loss to Middle Tennessee 62-77 was embarrassing for multiple reasons: it was a 15pt home loss to a mid-major team in a game where Ole Miss never really threatened, losing 48-19 at half and never recovering.
When I was attempting to determine the most likely starting line-up for this Rebels team, it was very challenging to say the least. Their big man, Sebastian Saiz, the 6-9 240 Sr, is the only guy who has started all 12 games for them this season. The rest has been by committee, pretty much. Ole Miss has 8 other guys who have started at least 2 games this season. One of the reasons they haven’t started their forwards is that they’ve played against a bunch of guard-heavy line-ups. Kentucky won’t be any exception to that, but the Cats do start at least 2 forwards, so I expect to see either Furmanavicious or Hymon to start at the 4 in this game. They have pretty much split the time at that spot this season. I chose the former as the starter because he has a bit more playing time and shoots it better from distance, which may be needed for Ole Miss in this game.
Everything for Ole Miss starts and ends with Saiz Sebastian, and for good reason. He’s a load in the paint and has multiple ways to score on the interior, including jump hooks with either hand, turnaround J, and a step-back jumper as well. He shoots 54% from the field and can even step out and make a 3, where he has connected on 6-18 on the season. He is averaging a double-double, 15.2 points, and 12.1 rebounds. He had 23 and 16 against South Alabama, which is ridiculous! (it should be noted that South Alabama is pure crap, though) The other possible starter at forward is the 6-7 210 junior Lithuanian Justas Furmanavicius (say that 3 times fast). Justus has played only 22 minutes per game this season and hasn’t scored much, though he has some versatility offensively. He may not start this game. We may instead see Marcavius Hymon, another 6-7 forward who has actually started more games for Ole Miss this year than his counterpart. He’s a little more athletic but not quite as skilled. All 3 of these Ole Miss forwards can block some shots, with 18, 19, and 20 blocked shots respectively.
When you begin looking at the Ole Miss backcourt, you quickly conclude that they are very guard heavy. In fact, 4 of their top 5 scorers are guards. They have started 6 different guards in various line-ups this season. Truth be told, with Saiz gobbling up all the rebounds, Ole Miss can afford to play small and quick, which is exactly what Kennedy has been doing. The top scorer in the backcourt is Deandre Burnett, a 6-2 192lb transfer from Miami who has been scoring 19.2 points per game. There have been a couple games he didn’t start this season, but he always gets his minutes and he always scored his points. He has more attempts that anyone else on the team, even though he’s not a great shooter. He’s the guy who can create offense for himself when needed. Burnett’s problem is that he’s a bit turnover prone, averaging more tos than assists on the season. The primary point guard for Ole Miss is Cullen Neal, a 6-4 191lb junior transfer from New Mexico. He’s a guy who will sneak up on you because he doesn’t look like he’d be as skilled as he is (which means he’s a white dude), but I’ve seen him play and he’s been really good. He’s scoring over 12 points per game and dishing out 3.7 assists and has about a 2:1 a/to ratio. He’s a guy who can be really dangerous if he heats up. He shoots 43.1% from 3pt range also, so he’s the guy who makes them go offensively and will present a challenge. The 3rd guy in the backcourt is Rasheed Brooks, a 6-5 203 senior. Brooks is a fairly steady guy who isn’t very flashy but does many things pretty well. He’s got some significant experience in Kennedy’s system, so he knows where to be. He can shoot from 3 at about 36%. He can rebound some. He’s big enough to defend bigger guys. He’s the glue guy for Ole Miss.
From the bench, the fourth guard in the rotation is Terrence Davis, a 6-4 210lb wing guard who is scoring 12.8 points grabbing 5.5 rebounds per game as well. He’s 3rd in scoring and 2nd in rebounding on the team. He has only started 5 games and only plays 22 minutes per game, but he gets his points and rebounds efficiently. He also has trouble with turnovers, along with Burnett, which might be why he’s getting limited minutes. There are 2 other guards we might see from the bench as well, which are Breein Tyree, a 6-2 192lb freshman and Donte Fitzpatrick-Dorsey, a 6-4 191lb sophomore. I doubt we’ll see much of these 2 unless foul trouble becomes an issue for the Rebels, which is highly unlikely in Oxford.
Defensively, Ole Miss plays some different zone packages, including a 1-3-1 trap intended to speed teams up and force open court turnovers leading to easy transition points. They press some full court as well. They will also play some 2-3 zone and some man to man at times. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 2-3 zone quite a bit in this one, unless that 1-3-1 is effective. I expect to see Ole Miss give up some threes in order to keep the ball out of the middle of the lane. They may also play 4 guards at times in that zone, which gets their better scorers on the floor for more minutes.
I think the bigger question for this game is this: how will these Cats bounce back from their loss to Louisville? The answer to that question will go a long way in determining what happens in this game. Ole Miss is not a pushover, especially playing at home and in front of, you guessed it, a sell-out crowd. I think the 1-3-1 zone could have the opposite effect of what it is intended to accomplish. With Fox and Briscoe’s ability to get into the lane, the zone could end up being an offensive spark for the Cats. Ole Miss is active in the zone, but it’s not even close to the kind of intensity we saw from Louisville. What I hope to see is UK driving to the rim and not settling for the jump shots that will most certainly be available here. As I mentioned in the statistical analysis above, Ole Miss gives up a large number of open threes, so those shots will be available. But after several days of Camp Cal, I hope we see guys driving, and I expect we will. Drive the ball, share the ball, 20+ assists, draw fouls and get to the line. That’s what I hope to see. I hope we see an improvement defensively, but I think we may struggle keeping Ole Miss from scoring at home in this hyped environment. KenPom predicts a UK win, 90-77.
Prediction: Kentucky 88 Ole Miss 74
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